Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
My RIA stories. Back in 1999, my friend and his wife (in their early 60s then) put all their retirment monies in several tech funds. Their advisor was well known in the local community - a mid size western town. She was always being quoted in the…
Reply to @Mark: I've had some "smart luck" in my days but sometimes I think the best luck I ever had was plain old "dumb" luck. Back in the early to mid 90s I was banned (kicked out) by Vanguard and T Rowe Price where I had accounts. It was for …
I've never been a fan of inflation adjusted returns. And I have never been a fan of anything related to gold. Gold hit $850 an ounce in 1980 with the Dow what, somewhere around 800 to 1000? Regardless though of my biases, I prefer to stick with …
Reply to @cman: >>> What you and I both will probably never understand are the people that spend an awful lot of time in fund picking to add to their collection than spend that same time more productively in asset allocation that makes a m…
I will never understand the long term buy and hold mindset in the major market indexes. The 15 year returns referenced for the S&P and AGG didn't look right to me. So I checked the returns through yesterday (the article was through 12/31/13) …
Reply to @Ted: Yes, very aware and my worry is once you expire the powers to be will rename this board AMFO seeing that alternatives are such the rage here. So take care of your health.
Let's see, a 4% annualized return over the past five years. But they are smart because they achieved those super low returns with sophisticated alternative strategies?
Reply to @Vert: This is neither here nor there. But being as I have always thought corporate junk bonds have always been the most underappreciated asset class out there........
Compared to AUXFX and VFINX above for the same 10 year time period m…
Reply to @Ted: Thanks Ted, maybe I shouldn't have deleted my post above. You are much more succinct! A 2.57.................% return per annum. And my idea of a disaster.
Sentiment nailed this recent decline. As previously posted (1/11/14) bullish optimism was at historic extremes in many sentiment indicators while others were at extremes not seen in many a moon. And "unless it is different this time ...... a cor…
Reply to @Charles: You know since we talk offline at times I am not rubbing it in. And if emerging markets ever show any positive momentum I may be all over it and a member in good standing of Groupthinkville. Albeit, I would probably first look …
Ted, couldn't agree more. I didn't need the money but also took mine at 62 and in hindsight one of my better decisions ever. It enabled me to trade with so much less pressure and didn't have to draw down my taxable account as much for living expen…
Max Gunther wrote one of my top five books of all time - The Luck Factor. As for the Zurich Axioms, I doubt they would go over well here, especially the one "Never try to save a bad investment by averaging down."' Or as Paul Tudor Jones liked to …
Reply to @Mark: Must be talking about me regarding groupthink and cman regarding porn addicted junkies. Gee Mark, sorry if someone posts something that runs counter to your belief system and you have to go into attack mode. I think MFO is a fine a…
Reply to @scott: Unlike you, when I was your age I was close to dead broke/penniless and with a negative net worth. Thus I didn't have the luxury of sitting tight with dog funds like ARIVX. In fact, my only option with $2200 (primarily from maxing…
Regarding the textbook start to 2014, unless there is a miraculous recovery end of day (and anything is possible) the Dow will be negative on the year which is quite a divergence from the chart of previous Januaries.
Reply to @scott: Through yesterday, a 3 yr compounded annualized return of 7.83% vs 14.26% for its category. I can think of a more apt description than "conservative".
I mentioned this earlier in the month, but many of the sentiment polls were at historic extremes of optimism. I was beginning to wonder if it was different this time (market sells off when everyone is bullish) but I guess not. Since 2009, bull mar…
Reply to @cman: >>>If the above seems dull and uninspiring and it is selecting the red marble or the blue marble that gets you excited, join the club of fund pushers here. Safer than being adducted to internet porn, just don't mislead you…
You have some nice bond funds. I went to Morningstar and see that over the past 20 years 1/23/94 to 1/23/14 a $10,000 investment in bond fund LSBRX has grown to 67,450 vs. 57,200 for the S&P and 44,053 for the Large Cap Blend category. So mu…
http://blogs.wellsfargo.com/advantagevoice/2014/01/municipal-investments-2014/
#2 in the link above is a very compelling reason for hiyield munis. Also last year, in spite of all the negatives out of Detroit and Puerto Rico the default rate for bo…
Reply to @MikeM: Sounds good to me. Bonds are on a roll in 2014 especially the munis.
Seems like the fervor for being in equity funds has really picked up on this board.
Reply to @MJG: >>>> I have been a long advocate for these workhorse financial tools, and have been surprised at the reluctance of an MFO minority who persistently resist application of these proven tools. Thank you for referencing these…
catch, I don't subscribe. I have a friend who sends me the numbers each week. Not to sound like a cop-out, but sentiment is more art than science. It's a combination of lots of tools that measure investor sentiment from Investors Intelligence, Co…
Let's not forget about the sentiment issue here. Some of the sentiment polls such as the Hulbert Sentiment Index was recently at historic highs of optimism. Likewise with the Market Vane poll. My favorite, Investors Intelligence, is at highs not …
For some reason couldn't post the chart in the link in my post above in my discussion with Hank. It is a long term *total return* chart of the junk bond market and about as pretty a chart as you will find. It illustrates the trend persistency of j…
Reply to @hank: >>>>It's likely the low point - for most markets anyway - was reached around March 9. If you have the average losses for junk bond funds by that date, I'd appreciate it.
Reply to @hank: >>>>On the other hand, I am still haunted by the faces and voices of long-acquainted friends and neighbors relating to me their heart-wrenching stories of 50% or greater losses of retirement savings over a very short (1…
Hank said >>>>I'd still argue that someone under 40 or 50 would be a lot better off staying 100% equity funds at that stage in life and than perhaps slowly adding some alternatives, including bonds, as they grow older.
BobC summed it up best "cautious, conserative, capital preservation mandate" Seems the manager likes to be where the action is but in a very conservative way. It's now primarily a *short* term high yield bond fund, before that it was listed as a …
