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It has been more than the past couple days. It began on October 13 when the S@P was down 2.3% intraday on the hot CPI report but then closed up 2.6%. The very definition of an out of the ordinary price momentum day. This rally has a different fee…
It has been more than the past couple days. It began on October 13 when the S@P was down 2.3% intraday on the hot CPI report but then closed up 2.6%. The very definition of an out of the ordinary price momentum day. This rally has a different fee…
I like Jim Bianco’s comments today re. sentiment. “In a bear market sentiment can and will go to apocalyptic/suicidal levels”…….
There certainly seems to be a lot of despair now yet all I see (and have been seeing) is how this or that indicator is…
Also from Twitter and Carson Investment Research on the prior four occasions the S@P was up an average 19.1% and 33.2% six and twelve months later. I am finding Twitter is filled with great research by some fabled analysts with decades of experienc…
For those like myself who are into breadth thrusts market action has been disappointing since the recent highs. Still the S@P is some 275 points above its June bear market lows. Bearishness is rampant again. We have two big events this month with…
Good info @Junkster & @Ybb.
From which event in time is the average 12 month S&P return of 18% calculated? What is the date from which we are supposed to observe this gain? I had to ask because S&P 500 is already up 18% from its June …
Over the past six weeks it has been one after another breadth, volume and assorted momentum indicators kick in on the buy side saying the bear is dead. Today yet another one from Seth Gordon on Twitter. 90% of the S@P stocks are trading above thei…
Today was a 92% up-volume day.
Others:
90% up-volume days: May 13, Jul 19, Aug 10
90% down-volume days: May 5, May 9, Jun 9, Jun 13, Jun 16
These so-called A/D thrust days have significance.
https://twitter.com/WalterDeemer/status/155746295874519040…
Howard Marks specializes in distressed debt ala junk bonds, bank loans, etc. Over the past several months I have continually read about how junk bonds offer value from various pundits. All the while it is one new low after another for junk bonds. …
Bullish inverse-H&S formation is now seen in major indexes. While there are many estimates of where the markets may bottom, it is good that the mid-June lows have held so far.
https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=$SPX&compare=$COMPQ,$INDU,$TR…
Howard Marks specializes in distressed debt ala junk bonds, bank loans, etc. Over the past several months I have continually read about how junk bonds offer value from various pundits. All the while it is one new low after another for junk bonds. …
Howard Marks specializes in distressed debt ala junk bonds, bank loans, etc. Over the past several months I have continually read about how junk bonds offer value from various pundits. All the while it is one new low after another for junk bonds. …
In 2008/09 this indicator only led to more declines. Another market tidbit courtesy of Charlie Bilello. This year to date ranks as the third worse start for the S@P since 1928. In the previous seven worst starts the S@P always closed the year hig…
Updates for now:
Barron's LINK1
Bloomberg BusinessWeek LINK2
Many sentiment indicators have been at levels associated with major bottoms. But sentiment indicators can be fickle and imprecise. What you need is strong price momentum to confirm the…
Home prices in vacation areas in the mountains of western NC, more specifically Seven Devils, Banner Elk, and especially Beech Mountain have literally doubled/tripled since 2019. $300,000 homes now routinely go for $600,0000 and more. There is a 2…
Bought an equity fund today which is a rarity for me - TRMCX. Will use a tight stop of around 3%. Still have exposure to a bank loan fund. Recently bought a hybrid bank loan/corporate junk fund. Don’t particularly like junk but has been perfor…
Schwab still lists RCTIX as $2500 minimum but with $50 fee if anybody is interested.
But I think I am out as well, when the manger disappears
But there are so few alternatives that are not under lots of water.
Anybody else a bit concerned that RP…
https://quantifiableedges.com/yield-curve-inversions-and-spx-returns/
Sorry if this info has already been presented. But this and another study that goes back even further argues it is a buy signal for equities when the yield curve inverts.
@davfor, don’t let me or anyone sway you on this fund. I didn’t realize you were a multi year investor in this fund. Thought you might have been like so many where the hot money momentum bond traders gravitated to this fund because it was up YTD …
I don’t necessarily think the markets have bottomed. But then if they have I wouldn’t be surprised. Markets always bottom when the fundamentals and news look the worse. That has always been the case on Wall Street. March 2020 was a classic exa…
The mortgage funds have been trading like they are broken for a couple months now. It began with SEMPX and BDKAX. It was only inevitable this weakness would filter down to their sister funds IOFIX, DPFNX, and RCTIX. Very illiquid holdings. EIXI…
With but a few exceptions, FSRRX being one of them, the inflation hedges topped in early March. Seems like an overly crowded boat to me. Knowing how counterintuitive investing is wouldn’t be surprised if the March top is THE top.
Fixed income has definitively been a total return blood bath since 3Q21; the math is simple - price moves conversely with duration. Some spread widening has occurred which can be partly attributed to Fed attempts to reduce balance sheet.
But no blo…
Some dumb questions / considerations
- In converting your pent-up investments (which are currently earning a return) into a stream of steady cash payouts in excess of what you have an immediate need for you are than faced with either (1) having to…
SPIAs (immediate annuities) can be bought in 80s, even 90s (certainly beyond 70s) - depends on the vender. Quote screen at https://www.immediateannuities.com/ stops at 90.
Thanks Yogi. I was told, apparently incorrectly, that except for a QLAC, I co…
https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=370245
The above link is must reading for anyone considering purchasing an immediate annuity. Immediate annuities are beginning to make some sense now that the 10 year Treasury is no long…
@Junkster, T-Bills are now better than m-market funds. Buy those commission-free at Fido, Schwab, etc. There is a nearby thread on the details for T-Bills and T-Notes.
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/59328/tough-day-in-bond-lan…
As of today’s close my largest position will be Schwab’s muni money market fund SWOXX. At TD Ameritrade I am limited to only Schwab money market funds. Money market funds are beginning to rise reflecting the Fed’s action Wednesday. Also took out s…
I did a very poor job of conveying my thoughts in my post. To be more succinct. Those who believe inflation is rampant are missing the point and looking in the rear view mirror as evidenced by the collapse in many commodity markets over the past f…
There is another tread on commodity below,
https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/59300/my-commodities-basket-got-clobbered-today-dbc
Since oil is a major component within the Bloomberg commodity index, large swings of oil price in both d…
HMEZX and PVCMX are both up YTD. Its nice to see a little green in there somewhere.
At one time I saw where you were a holder of RCTRX which was a good move. I had tried to purchase it awhile back but unable to do so. I wouldn’t necessarily a…
HMEZX and PVCMX are both up YTD. Its nice to see a little green in there somewhere.
Lots of funds green for the year just very few in the multi sector income category as Charles was alluding to. RCTRX is a little known income fund that has held f…
Hi folks,
Gary Smith (not the Fox guy) that used to post on the earlier board and who wrote, 'How I Trade for a Living', described True Selling Days as when all the major indices are down more than 1%. We had one on Jan 14 and another one on the 2…
Yes, very nice to have Junkster posting again!
Thanks Old_Joe. But hopefully just an aberration on my part.
Interesting bullish link below on sentiment and how it is similar to the 2018 and 3/20 bottoms. I am a big believer in sentiment albeit it…
Maybe it is just me but still don’t see the fear associated with past declines of this magnitude. It is all about buying dips and potential buys. Although not into analogous year investing, this reminds me a bit of 1973. There we had weak Janua…
For those waiting on better valuations to buy Equities, at what point would you be a serious Buyer? Do you have a specific plan in place?
What about Bonds (yeah, what about Bonds) - are any type/class of bonds worth holding in 2022?
Current S&…
