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To each their own, @Crash. Thought I'd mention it since there doesn't seem to be much talk beyond junk, mortgages, and bank loans.
Bank loan funds on track for their second best year in history. A few non agency mbs funds on track for double digit…
https://www.reuters.com/markets/default-wave-imminent-will-peak-2024-deutsche-bank-2023-05-31/
From the end of May a very ominous forecast for the default rate on both junk bonds and loans in late 2024. If the default rates of 9% and 11.3% comes …
Then I will just note that SEMMX/SEMPX is having an excellent year in the nontraditional category--focusing on junk mortgages. I know this fund scares investors because of its recent downmarket performance, but it sure seems to be doing well this …
Barron's this week has a positive Cover story and a positive Q&A on real estate. Suggestion is to start bottom fishing cautiously. Sure, there are concerns and lots of bad news, but when everything is hunky-dory, prices would have moved up alrea…
@Charles, check out Barron's,
TRADER. Stocks rose as the wall of worry faded away. The RALLY broadened beyond large-caps to small/mid-caps and cyclicals (financials, industrials). The SP500 was in a bear market for 248 days (Edit - the longest sinc…
Lots of good points.
My caution with FR/BL is just going forward. It has been a good time for FR/BL from mid-2022 to ??? If one has them, hold for now; may be still good for a quick trade. Things do change rapidly for them and lot of backward-looki…
Lots of negativity on bonds here. I can understand the allure of cash when you can get 5.08% at firms like Schwab. Yet many bond funds are on pace for double digit returns in 2023. Albeit much of those gains were front loaded in January/February.…
Today Carlson left (was let go?) from was fired by Fox.
Great day all around. I couldn’t stand Carlson and wouldn’t let my Trump loving girlfriend air Fox News when I was around, On the left side of the coin, CNN fired Don Lemon. Disliked him as…
While news of this settlement was mentioned on Fox News yesterday, it was not mentioned at all in prime time by their three main anchors - or so I read. I must be a terrible Republican. I can’t stand Trump and can’t stand Fox News, especially Hann…
Without any speculation as to what might be driving this murderous escalation, at the very least it would seem reasonable to remove personal assault weapons from the general population.
I suspect that a complex interaction of many elements is causi…
By Chris Sununu:
Some of my GOP colleagues have lost their moral compass on Ukraine
“America First” does not mean “America Only.” It means putting our interests first — and that’s what opposing Russia in Ukraine does.
The Russian invasion of Ukrain…
>>>>“5. the commercial real estate market, which is reliant on floating rate securities, is a major and generally unrecognized risk. High quality lenders like BlackRock “are handing the keys back to the bank.” Eventually the government w…
What surprises me is how well the risk on sectors of the bond market - junk corporates, junk munis, and bank loans - have reacted to the banking chaos. They are still positive YTD albeit barely. At their nadir in 08/09/ they were all down around 3…
Bear Stearns went under in March 2008 and Lehman in September 2008. Lot of pain for the markets lay ahead after those failures. So not trying to be a Pollyanna here but I would think if what occurred the past two days had occurred last year we w…
I was taught in a college communications class a half century ago: ”A percept is a product” So, while we can mitigate the failure of SVB and put it into proper perspective, the perception out there among the public and some in the investment / ban…
What a day. First Republic Bank another one of those west coast banks had a low today of 45. As I post this it has almost doubled off its lows trading at 89. Looking more and more like Silicon Valley Bank is an outlier with its own specific prob…
I am surprised this hasn’t gotten more discussion on the boards today. I can’t recall the last time I saw a component of the S@P 500 lose 60% in one trading session. Various banking indexes got hit hard today in the aftermath and a couple other we…
If you are a baseball fan you know the term small ball. If not, it means trying to score runs without hitting a home run. I have been tracking money market and brokered CD’s at Schwab. In the last month the steady rise of MM fund rates has ground t…
@ Junkster. I would also take exception to your characterization that “everyone” had life like the Nelsons and the Cleavers. In 1982 I was in the very isolated fishing village of Bahia Tortuga on the west coast of Mexico. Quite by accident I met…
Why is it people always remember the lower prices from the past, the music and young love, but so rarely the horrors? Wally and the Beave weren’t the 1950s reality for many if not most people who lived back then. I doubt it was even the reality for…
https://www.ytdreturn.com/on-s-p-500/
Above link is a handy reference showing *total return* for various indexes. S@P still ahead for the year by 4.36%. Russell 2000 and NASDAQ 100 still comfortably ahead. Dow barely positive. Recent declines …
There is no trading over the weekend and what you are seeing are the closing futures prices Friday afternoon. This will all change when futures reopen at 6:00 PM est on Sunday.
Or maybe some really nasty earning surprises this evening combined with a really hot employment number tomorrow. Albeit any negative reaction there would only prove fleeting.
Nasty earnings - correct
Hot employment - correct
Fleeting reaction - c…
Don’t think I am going out on a limb here by saying next week - after a record setting streak of more bears than bulls - that the bulls will finally be in charge. Elsewhere I listed all the market indexes now in bull mode with some at all times hi…
I am struck by the contrarian nature of the WSJ article in light of the market activity in both equities and bonds. Not just since their lows in the Oct./Nov. period but even more so YTD. There are bond funds out there that unbelievably haven’t ha…
It’s been a decent run past month or two. I realize most don’t pay much heed to the DJI. But I’ll note it’s near 34 K - Not too far below where it topped out in early 2022 - around 37 K if I recall. Of course the S&P and NASDAQ still deep in t…
A little surprising seeing the bears continue to dominate this poll. I believe and correct me if I am wrong, the longest string of weeks ever where there have been more bears than bulls. This new bull market although over 3 months old gets no resp…
I've done some rearranging in the IRA. In taxable, I continue to d-c-a. I will grow the bonds in days to come. Success with my current stable of single stocks has been respectable since I started that account in the Spring of 2022. Apart from the dr…
From Walter Deemer this evening, a true icon since the 1960s among technical analysts. “ The stock market generated breakaway momentum today for the 25th time since 1945. This is a genuine breadth thrust. It means (IMHO) we’re in a bull market. …
”Too many George Santos impersonators have infiltrated some of these forums.”
Hi Gary. I don’t know whether your reference was to me or not. But inasmuch as I’d earlier alluded to some profitable personal investments and inasmuch as others might …
Are the data for year 2020-2022 available? After 2022, it would be nice to have a decent year.
Nothing to update as 2020-2022 were not trifecta years. We won’t know if 2023 is such till the end of January.
Jeffrey Hirsch (son of late Yale Hirsch; founder of Stock Trader's Almanac) posted a table at Twitter LINK with data from 1950 on:
SC Rally (late-Dec Santa Claus rally)
FFD (first 5 days of the year)
JB (Jan barometer)
Subsequent
Feb
Last 11 Mo (Fe…
Popularized by Marty Zweig the last ten trading days dating back to 12/29 will generate ( unless there is some massive decline into the close) one of the rarest and most powerful bullish momentum indicators. That is the total 10 day NYSE advances…
That's interesting.
M* indicates that VFIAX has returned -17.92 YTD.
Yes, S@P price return is -19.17% while total return is -17.99% or -17,88% depending on which reporting service you check. But nowhere close to Barron’s -12,1%. Unless that was a …
