Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
I was taught in a college communications class a half century ago: ”A percept is a product” So, while we can mitigate the failure of SVB and put it into proper perspective, the perception out there among the public and some in the investment / ban…
What a day. First Republic Bank another one of those west coast banks had a low today of 45. As I post this it has almost doubled off its lows trading at 89. Looking more and more like Silicon Valley Bank is an outlier with its own specific prob…
I am surprised this hasn’t gotten more discussion on the boards today. I can’t recall the last time I saw a component of the S@P 500 lose 60% in one trading session. Various banking indexes got hit hard today in the aftermath and a couple other we…
If you are a baseball fan you know the term small ball. If not, it means trying to score runs without hitting a home run. I have been tracking money market and brokered CD’s at Schwab. In the last month the steady rise of MM fund rates has ground t…
@ Junkster. I would also take exception to your characterization that “everyone” had life like the Nelsons and the Cleavers. In 1982 I was in the very isolated fishing village of Bahia Tortuga on the west coast of Mexico. Quite by accident I met…
Why is it people always remember the lower prices from the past, the music and young love, but so rarely the horrors? Wally and the Beave weren’t the 1950s reality for many if not most people who lived back then. I doubt it was even the reality for…
https://www.ytdreturn.com/on-s-p-500/
Above link is a handy reference showing *total return* for various indexes. S@P still ahead for the year by 4.36%. Russell 2000 and NASDAQ 100 still comfortably ahead. Dow barely positive. Recent declines …
There is no trading over the weekend and what you are seeing are the closing futures prices Friday afternoon. This will all change when futures reopen at 6:00 PM est on Sunday.
Or maybe some really nasty earning surprises this evening combined with a really hot employment number tomorrow. Albeit any negative reaction there would only prove fleeting.
Nasty earnings - correct
Hot employment - correct
Fleeting reaction - c…
Don’t think I am going out on a limb here by saying next week - after a record setting streak of more bears than bulls - that the bulls will finally be in charge. Elsewhere I listed all the market indexes now in bull mode with some at all times hi…
I am struck by the contrarian nature of the WSJ article in light of the market activity in both equities and bonds. Not just since their lows in the Oct./Nov. period but even more so YTD. There are bond funds out there that unbelievably haven’t ha…
It’s been a decent run past month or two. I realize most don’t pay much heed to the DJI. But I’ll note it’s near 34 K - Not too far below where it topped out in early 2022 - around 37 K if I recall. Of course the S&P and NASDAQ still deep in t…
A little surprising seeing the bears continue to dominate this poll. I believe and correct me if I am wrong, the longest string of weeks ever where there have been more bears than bulls. This new bull market although over 3 months old gets no resp…
I've done some rearranging in the IRA. In taxable, I continue to d-c-a. I will grow the bonds in days to come. Success with my current stable of single stocks has been respectable since I started that account in the Spring of 2022. Apart from the dr…
From Walter Deemer this evening, a true icon since the 1960s among technical analysts. “ The stock market generated breakaway momentum today for the 25th time since 1945. This is a genuine breadth thrust. It means (IMHO) we’re in a bull market. …
”Too many George Santos impersonators have infiltrated some of these forums.”
Hi Gary. I don’t know whether your reference was to me or not. But inasmuch as I’d earlier alluded to some profitable personal investments and inasmuch as others might …
Are the data for year 2020-2022 available? After 2022, it would be nice to have a decent year.
Nothing to update as 2020-2022 were not trifecta years. We won’t know if 2023 is such till the end of January.
Jeffrey Hirsch (son of late Yale Hirsch; founder of Stock Trader's Almanac) posted a table at Twitter LINK with data from 1950 on:
SC Rally (late-Dec Santa Claus rally)
FFD (first 5 days of the year)
JB (Jan barometer)
Subsequent
Feb
Last 11 Mo (Fe…
Popularized by Marty Zweig the last ten trading days dating back to 12/29 will generate ( unless there is some massive decline into the close) one of the rarest and most powerful bullish momentum indicators. That is the total 10 day NYSE advances…
That's interesting.
M* indicates that VFIAX has returned -17.92 YTD.
Yes, S@P price return is -19.17% while total return is -17.99% or -17,88% depending on which reporting service you check. But nowhere close to Barron’s -12,1%. Unless that was a …
For the week ending on 11/23/22, bearish remained the top sentiment (40.2%; high) & bullish became the bottom sentiment (28.9%; below average); neutral became the middle sentiment (30.9%; near average); Bull-Bear Spread was -11.3% (high). Invest…
Hi @Junkster
MJG was last logged in October, 2021
Hope you're doing well. We're trying to adjust to winter again.
Take care,
Catch
Thanks Mark. You are in the same class as @Hank and @Old_Joe. An oldie but a goodie. MJG was a bit older than many…
@Sven, @carew388, @Catch22- You all will be relived to know that hank responded to my email almost immediately. As we suspected, he's been traveling to see some plays, and sometimes he just drops out of MFO for a while. He's fine.
OJ
Thanks @Old_Jo…
Maybe a bit too personal but Trump is seriously jeopardizing a relationship I have been in for 23 years. Imagine dealing with a Trumpster on a daily basis. I actually didn’t dislike him to the extent I do now until January 6 and then his continual…
I thought even more significant was the later headline tonight saying that every election denier running for a post from which he could distort an election had lost. Maybe enough voters are sick and tired of two years of the BS Trump has to sell, es…
It has been more than the past couple days. It began on October 13 when the S@P was down 2.3% intraday on the hot CPI report but then closed up 2.6%. The very definition of an out of the ordinary price momentum day. This rally has a different fee…
It has been more than the past couple days. It began on October 13 when the S@P was down 2.3% intraday on the hot CPI report but then closed up 2.6%. The very definition of an out of the ordinary price momentum day. This rally has a different fee…
I like Jim Bianco’s comments today re. sentiment. “In a bear market sentiment can and will go to apocalyptic/suicidal levels”…….
There certainly seems to be a lot of despair now yet all I see (and have been seeing) is how this or that indicator is…
Also from Twitter and Carson Investment Research on the prior four occasions the S@P was up an average 19.1% and 33.2% six and twelve months later. I am finding Twitter is filled with great research by some fabled analysts with decades of experienc…
For those like myself who are into breadth thrusts market action has been disappointing since the recent highs. Still the S@P is some 275 points above its June bear market lows. Bearishness is rampant again. We have two big events this month with…
Good info @Junkster & @Ybb.
From which event in time is the average 12 month S&P return of 18% calculated? What is the date from which we are supposed to observe this gain? I had to ask because S&P 500 is already up 18% from its June …
Over the past six weeks it has been one after another breadth, volume and assorted momentum indicators kick in on the buy side saying the bear is dead. Today yet another one from Seth Gordon on Twitter. 90% of the S@P stocks are trading above thei…
Today was a 92% up-volume day.
Others:
90% up-volume days: May 13, Jul 19, Aug 10
90% down-volume days: May 5, May 9, Jun 9, Jun 13, Jun 16
These so-called A/D thrust days have significance.
https://twitter.com/WalterDeemer/status/155746295874519040…
