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I am surprised that using Gartman as a contrarian indicator seems to keep working. At some point, there must be a reversion to the mean! :-)
I actually like frequent CNBC contributor Dennis Gartman less than I do Cramer.
Gartman's two calls for s…
You have done well in SNTIX and VWALX as well as PZA as you posted you held them back in August. Congrats on that. The lag I refer to is more in reference to days where there is some major negative or positive news event which impacts the markets …
Mike, our posts just about crossed. I was going to say if anyone thinks the selloff in equities is overdone, then the selloff in junk corporates is even more overdone. I lucked out (maybe) on that 10% because the ETF junk munis are really taking …
Thanks Charles. Not sure I ever took a profit in a rising market like this before. And it's been bugging me all day that I went against my protocol. I'm not much for the technicals, but the 14 RSI was over 90 in this sector and that was before t…
Futures aren't down much (at least so far) but are trading at a large discount to cash S&P and fair value. So ( I was out most of day) I assume there was a large selloff in the last 15 minutes of the day session after cash closed. Clear as mud …
I rarely read these type of threads. I'm about as middle of the road as they come (albeit about as radical an environmentalist as they come and probably because of all the time I spend in the great outdoors) For instance I dislike the current Democr…
I rarely read the talking heads because (and you learn this after almost 50 years in the game) they know absolutely nothing more than me, you, or the man in the moon. They just understand the art of articulation combined with a little bit of knowle…
I e-mailed heezsafe yesterday in fact, albeit had no idea it could be as soon as today. I said if he sent me his address I would send him a check right away. If that doesn't suit him I can send the check to David and he can forward it. As some of …
Thanks Old_Skeet for posting your moves and not after the fact. What you are doing is fine for an investor and over time will turn out profitable for you as it always has in the past. As a trader though, the first rule I learned as a teenager afte…
>>>It's been difficult lately, to take the long-term view. But that's my frame of reference. I've got the world covered, leaving out Latin America, deliberately..... I hate to see the numbers, the last several days. Maybe I should just go f…
Dex, I am praying I have to pay that $250 at 2%. But at 1% I don't believe either of us will be happy (with you know what) I mean 1% could mean some serious economic problems worse than 2008 and you saw what you know what did in 2008.
With MJG trading/investing is all science and no art. Most likely because he comes from an engineering background. I can't fault him for that. But for others though it's almost all art. Back in the days, it was a whole bevy of sentiment indica…
What about the case where you dollar cost average into a fund monthly long term. Are there any rules for when one should stop?
paule, you are an investor not a trader. Absolutely nothing wrong with what you are doing, especially if it is an index…
And don't forget about Paul Tudor Jones and his maxim that "only losers average losers". Problem is, all the people mentioned are traders and not investors. I was taught from Day One as a teenager (Nicolas Darvas) to NEVER average down.
the kid who picked up the phone @ Vanguard made a mistake. Vanguard does best to train them, but you know how it goes, plus being a bogle-funded truly mutual fund company (i.e. cheap) they can't really get good help like the loaded institutions can…
fundalarm, thanks, you said pretty much what I said but in a kinder and gentler manner. The female touch I imagine. The easy way to sum this up is with all closed end bond funds and bond fund ETFs the price is adjusted downward end of month based…
I'm not even gone for a day and someone e-mails about this thread. Robert, seriously, you need to get your act together. I discussed as did fundalarm the two ways bond funds pay their dividends. We described how funds like the one you keep harping…
Mike, PZA has been a dandy closed end muni fund, a picture perfect tight rising channel and its YTD return of 13.67% is far ahead of the other investment grade muni funds and not far behind the 15%+ return of the big three in the open end junk space…
@Junkster
Yeah, well, mind that channel. Last time I took a glance, it was narrowing (or is it? it's hard to tell). :)
Junk munis a fickle lover be.
The lack of attractive alternatives could dupe you into staying too long, ya know?
I am hoping I hav…
Regarding the typical open end bond fund the NAV is NOT lowered when the dividends accrue daily and paid end of month. If you are in the fund just a few days during the month your account is still credited end of month for the dividends on howeve…
http://blogs.barrons.com/incomeinvesting/2014/09/23/strong-two-year-auction-draws-foreign-interest/?mod=BOL_hp_blog_ii
Super strong bidding today for 2 year notes at 0.589%, primarily from foreign central banks.
Not that I am proud of it, but I think I have everyone here beat when it comes to being a loser in my 20s and 30s. But at least I wasn't a deadbeat. Because deadbeats don't have dreams and I DID have a dream. My downfall as described below was m…
Robert, it's their volatility as well as having to deal with bid/ask spreads which can be wide in something as thinly traded as HYMB. In the mini selloff in junk munis in early July, HYD sold off over 4% early that month (closing highs to intra…
I took Social Security at 62 and don't regret it one iota! By the time it all equals out, something like around 78, it won't make any difference as I assume my nest egg will be that much larger. I just learned today that one of my lady friends in …
>>>>>@Junkster, is the reason you would salivate at a Fed Funds of 3.75% because you would want to invest in those money market funds or Certificates of Deposit, at the decent yields that we used to see in the past?
Is Gundlach looking for an eventual inverted yield curve? He has been outspoken about how he thinks the economy is not all that strong and an inverted yield curve would imply a recession. I can't see the Fed allowing an inverted yield curve though…
I see you read that column intraday too. Part of the rally this year was because of a shortage. I guess we will see if the increased supply leads to the first down month this year. Again, have my exit point in place if price begins to recede from…
Thomas, not really. Just see where price action takes me. I lightened up form 100% to 79% there just in case but may put some of that back to work. Some of the junk munis ala ABTYX are right at YTD highs with the others are but a few pennies off.
>>>They moved into an over-55 community in a quiet town outside of Seattle and invested $100,000 (cash) into a modest home within walking distance of her wife’s job (no car necessary). It costs them roughly $1,000 a month to sustain their l…
Mike, was looking the other night at what's available at Scottrade among the top funds in that category. Ever since its recent inception, LSFYX has pretty much led the pack here. I've even been in that one once or twice so if push comes to shove a…
Yet, yields on all sorts of bonds keep grinding higher as they have since the beginning of the month. Good news, bad news, it doesn't seem to matter. Tomorrow's Fed speak will be awaited with bated breath. Is it time for floating rate/bank loans…
http://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/rbernstein_091614.php
Stocks vs. High Yield Munis, September 16, 2014, by Richard Bernstein
Thomas, thanks for the above link.
http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/14712/the-world-s-best-investment-opportunity-is#latest
See my post above two months ago about Bernstein's love of junk munis. And as Hank alluded to above, back in the days Bernstein was one o…
Robert, you are right in that junk munis are a different animal than junk corporates. The average junk muni fund has over 50% of their assets in investment grade while the average junk corporate has only around 10%. Morningstar I believe counts t…
Mike, this may not help much but I went back into the archives to January 16 in a thread titled, What are you buying/selling. This was when I began piling into junk munis. In the thread I stated " feverishly moving out of HFRZX into NHMRX". Ev…
Walt, VWALX has never been on my radar screen this year primarily because, at least by Morningstar, it is listed in the Intermediate Muni National category. It's had a good year and right at the top of that category but were it in the High Yield mu…
Junkster, I'm trying to understand your successful methodology. You are looking to sell funds that are at their highs, I'm guessing on the 'prospect' that they could fall with other income funds. Isn't that contrary to your success? I thought that y…
