Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
The open end junk munis are the last men standing in Bondville it appears and wonder how much longer that can last. Negative language from the Fed Wednesday afternoon may already be baked in the bond market. Heaven forbid if something comes out mo…
I think one lesson of the bond market hiccup of recent days is that, despite the many months now that the Fed has clearly signaled gradual tightening, it's so NOT priced into the market that a rumor of a relatively minor shift in language produces a…
@Junkster, I was wondering if you could clarify your statement. "Great fund. MAINX a good fund but too stodgy for my tastes and not in the emerging markets bond category."
It is an emerging market bond fund, focused to Asia of course. Perhaps I mi…
@Junkster That's kind of what I'm thinking. Not aware of tons of emerging market funds. DBLEX and FNMIX I'm familiar with, looks like there are 5 other Great Owl options in the category.
Edit: I'd guess MAINX counts to this idea too.
jlev, were I …
@Junkster: Totally agree on managing drawdowns. Limit your losses and let your winners run. The skill is how to implement. How do you go about finding the tight rising channels? Do you regularly look at a list of favorite funds/sectors? Looks l…
For me, volatility equates to drawdowns and that is why I gravatated to tight rising channels in funds with little to no volatility. At least for me, success in trading/investing is how you handle your losers and drawdowns. Your winners require no …
http://www.businessinsider.com/forgetful-investors-performed-best-2014-9
The link above has been bandied about here recently. Scroll down to the end for a visual of the 20 year annualized returns of various equity and bond sectors. At your very y…
hank, if even the market optimists are turning wary that is bullish if you are into market sentiment. As for the 60s, pretty good market years as I recall, especially the early 60s.
John, so right are those obscene valuations in the late 90s.
@Junkster: In case you missed this earlier link.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/15615/average-stock-declines-from-52-week-highs#latest
Thanks Ted, I read most of your links but not this one because I thought it wa…
Old-Joe - great post, best I've seen in many a moon here. Thanks! And married to the same spouse since 1970? What a dinosaur and I mean that in the most complimentary of ways. You are one lucky guy.
>>>>>Is it possible to predict the future? The short answer is 'No.' A market timer, however, believes it is possible to buy stocks or mutual funds at high prices and sell at low prices based upon their assessment of future market and…
http://blogs.barrons.com/incomeinvesting/2014/09/09/gundlach-treasury-yields-depend-on-italian-spanish-french-yields/?mod=BOL_hp_blog_ii
I got in too late to listen to his webcast but guess the above sums up his feelings on Treasuries. Another lin…
Thanks Ted, I wanted to post a link but the only link I saw was the one you posted and that was only a part of the entire interview. Somewhere tucked in the entire interview was some comment he made about how he thought rates had hit their bottom f…
As has been pointed out LSGLX (a dog of a fund in its category for many a year) is not managed by Fuss. While I respect Fuss and his ex sidekick Gaffney, no one can predict or forecast so I have always adhered to the wisdom of Benton Davis that the…
Old-Skeet, I would love to have to pay up and 2% isn't out of the question. 1% I think is a total, complete, and utter impossibility, but then I have been wrong many times before.
This year I have been hiking primarily along the Mountains-To-Se…
heezsafe, I am in a generous mood today, must have been that mountain air last week. Last deal I will make. Yes, will gladly send you $250 if the 10 Year hits 2% before 3%. But that will have to be closing basis, not intraday. Junk corporates got…
Dex, if the 10 year goes to 1% before 3% send my your address and I will send you a check for $500. In no way, shape or form do I see that occurring but would be thrilled and the $500 would be a small pittance to what I would make on such a move.
Good point Jerry about 401(k) So here's a link including IRAs. Still not real encouraging
http://www.fidelity.com/inside-fidelity/employer-services/fidelity-analysis-highlights-balances-and-contribution-rates-of-combined-retirement-savings
And …
Never being a fan of conventional wisdom - buy and hold, don't overtrade, diversify, you can't beat the market, etc. etc. - of the 12,000,000 401(k) accounts administered by Fidelity a mere 4/10 of 1% are over a million dollars. So as not to ruffl…
Indeed, bonds of many sorts, especially Treasuries, haven't looked good since Labor Day. And if we get some type of surprise blowout employment report tomorrow it could get worse. Just in case, I raised some cash, but hope tomorrow runs counter…
>>>>>@Junkster: I am paying close attention to your words of wisdom...
"...if you want to succeed in this game, you have to become your own expert and listen only to yourself and the message of the market."
Bitzer, even though I disagree with about 99.99% of what I read on this fine board as to what it takes to accumulate wealth, I completely understand where you are coming from and have learned (finally) not to criticize other viewpoints. Best of luck.
Nine Reasons To Just Say No To Managed Futures
http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2012/07/31/nine-reasons-to-just-say-no-to-managed-futures/
Fooling Some of the People All the Time
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=127…
Meanwhile, back in the real world and flying under the rader screen all year, junk munis are already up 13% to 14%+ (EIHYX/NHMRX) How sick is this? Here I am on a great hiking vacation (12 miles today among the highest peaks of the east) and I a…
Of the 21 asset classes shown, junk corporates came in fourth but with only about half and less the volatility of the three that beat it. It was also like that volatility-wise in the 80s and 90s with junk. That's the allure of junk and it also mak…
I completely understand the gist of the article and I can't argue against its merits. But in this game of accumulating wealth , one shoe does not fit all. For some cash *IS* trash and always will be. As a shorter term trader/investor my motto has…
The inhabitants of this board who have been around the investment game for the past 20 years must be *above* average investors. That's because I can't imagine any of them
earning a mere 2% to 3% per annum over that time frame. In fact, I can't i…
MJG, going back in time a bit. Over the 10 years ending March 31, 1999 only 2 newsletter timing strategies out of 59 tracked by Mark Hulbert were able to beat the returns of a buy and hold strategy in the Wilshire 5000 Index. Over the previous fiv…
I am one of the more aggressive yet most conservative on this board. As for SPLV from its closing high to its recent intraday low it declined 5.1%. I realize we are all different here and whatever suits our personality etc. and there is no right o…
So far the results are a bit distressing from a contrarian point of view. If you asked at the beginning of January which would come first 3.50% or 2.50%, I bet you would have received something like 95% (or higher) for 3.50%. Higher rates were a…
I am not a fan of diversification and even less a fan of fund of funds. As for IRNIX it makes no sense. I count 24 of its 25 top holdings as junk corporate funds. That category has returned 3.19% YTD with many greater than that. The woeful IRNIX…
Ted is 77 years old and as he has mentioned several times not in the best of health. I might be a bit more onery too if I had a host of health problems (and was 77 years young) So we should probably cut him some slack.
Put me in the self indulgent camp too. I love wealth/money because (and probably more than anyone on this board) I saw the other side. It was years of extreme poverty - minimum wage jobs, no money for food/monthly rent, having to always pawn my TV,…
This is the last thread I ever thought I would participate in... but the Finger Lakes and Jim Boeheim? In my very younger days worked in Victor, lived in Fairport and then Canandaigua right near the lake. As a result of that venture, now have fam…
