Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
We will have to revisit this in a few more months. Reminds me of the beginning of 2014 when the 10 year was around 3% and not a bond bull to be found. It was a foregone conclusion yields on the 10 yield would break 3% and head towards 4% before 20…
Thanks TSP-Transfer One of PIMCO's TIPs funds is up almost 7% YTD. I have never held so many bond funds preferring to be 100% in either junk munis or junk corporates - whichever is working best. But now holding bond funds in emerging markets, jun…
This is not directed at our resident financial planner but I believe the financial industry wants us to believe we will all live to a ripe old age because it benefits them. I mean there are very few 90 year old males around. If you read the obits …
Just another sign my generation better start living life to the fullest. We never know when our time will be up. Patty Duke who we all remember well passed away today at age 69. People may underestimate their spending in retirement but they also …
Thanks Junkster for posting. Your last paragraph sums it up !! Last week I changed my outlook , as I'm lucky to be here posting.
Derf
Derf, did you have a health issue last wee…
Retirement is another one of those fascinating topics where there is no right or wrong answer. Fortunately for me I hate to travel. Possibly because when I was younger I traveled all over the U.S. and got my fill. Also, for over 12 years one of my…
Well ... it doesn't feel like Easter in Michigan. I cleared over a foot of snow Friday morning for an elderly neighbor so she could get out of her driveway to attend church services. And while the snowblower is now resting, more snow is forecast fo…
Thanks junkster, but I only use the ETF because I can get out quickly (versus a fund). Just watching the trend, this ETF is moving nicely over the last month. What is it that you don't like about Bank loans in general.
Mike, in addition to my commen…
@Junkster Can you please explain your reasoning for advantages of one day lag with mutual funds. It seems counterintuitive as you are always late comparing with ETF.
Exploiting the one day lag in the open end junk finds to news/market action late i…
MJG I was quoting Dalbar back in the late 90s as well as numerous other sources ala MoniResearch, Timer Digest, Commodity Traders Consumer Reports, and Mark Hulbert to name just a few on the futility of beating the market averages. Also books suc…
Mike, I like the sector. It's just with the junk and bank loan ETFs you get exaggerated daily moves when everyone wants to get out. The open end you normally have a one day lag and you can play that to your advantage when adverse news (or for that…
I noticed the nice bank loan trend over the last couple months and decided to make my own "Junkster-trend-play" earlier this week. Bought some BKLN, power shares senior loan etf.
Mike, hope the trade works out for you. However, if you recall some …
MJG You may be surprised that I believe 99.5% of investors would be better served with a passive buy and hold in a Vanguard 500 Index fund or better yet a Vanguard 60%/40% fund. I have seen scant evidence an active strategy works in real time with…
Spending, whether in retirement or any other time along life's continuum often doesn't net out as zero. Money spent on real items verses services retain some tangible value. This is why there are auctions, estate sales, and tag sales. Obviously we a…
My biggest mistakes were listening to people here about investing in the hot stock catigories. By the time we start talking about the hot sectors on a discussion board, you are already getting in towards the top. Commodities, minors, gold, ect... I…
I have been a bit obsessed recently with retirement - which means less trading. I have given deferred annuities a close look including the newer QLAC's. As much as I try though, I just can't get into them. For the most part you just get your prin…
Nice post Hank About the only negative (and there are always negatives) has been the action in small/mid cap biotech and to a lesser degree large cap of the same. Bull or bear, a more than average profitable trading rally in just about everything e…
Disaster was probably too strong a term; "surprisingly poor" sounds about right.
When the panic passes, he might ease back on the amount of ballast and benefit from a substantial rebound in oversold securities.
Agree, surprising poor sounds bette…
A negative surprise by the Fed tomorrow, which no one seems to be expecting, could derail things. The action in biotech and healthcare continues anemic. Junk bonds having their worse day since the 2/11 bottom. Oil backing off some from its rece…
I believe every rally is THE rally and play it as such. That way I never miss out when it actually is THE rally. How much I lose on the times it is not THE rally and how much I make when it is THE rally is all about my trade management. Clear as …
FYI: Talk to some traders right now and you’ll hear the smartest ones talking about fading each edge of the range – the market-wide breakouts and breakdowns are all false.
Only amateurs are making high-conviction moves these days. They get beari…
The article sort of answers its own question. Basically only an idiot would be excited at the market at this time Most I know are holding on and hoping to survive without a significant loss.
Count me as an idiot. How can one not be excited about th…
I would have to look, but haven't hedge funds performed absolutely miserably since 1/1/2009? Just another example of "there are no experts". Once investors grasp that tenet they can begin going about developing their own money management strategi…
We will have to revisit Mr. Gundlach predictions sometime down the road. PIMCO has a different and positive view on junk bonds - see link below. I have no idea on stocks, junk bonds or whatever. Albeit I am lighter than I was last week in the ju…
Well we get to here his thoughts again Tuesday !
Jeffrey Gundlach (who many follow blindly because he is an expert and manages billions)
http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/26347/another-open-mic-for-doubleline-s-jeffery-gundach-con…
My high yield pick is PHYZX - low expenses of .58, seasoned management, and rated 5 stars by M*.
Among the better junk bond funds and wondered why it has never been on a my radar screen. Now I remember. At Scottrade where I trade it is only availa…
Summary From an article earlier this week from Seeking Alpfa looking @ E T Fs in this space
authored byFundGuru Mar. 3, 2016 8:40 AM ET
High yield bonds have performed poorly of late, despite historically delivering equity-like returns with lower v…
I like your comments Puddnhead (other than Bradley dates) Never met a successful practitioner of Bradley dates in 50 years at this game. MLPs were not in purgatory but hell. Like you I think oil has bottomed but if oil has bottomed would also thin…
HYLD is a beyond bad junk bond ETF and even worse it is thinly traded with wide bid/ask spreads. FAGIX is not a pure junk bond fund as they always have more exposure to equities than other junk bond funds. If you are an investor (not a trader) you…
We had some huge moves since the 2/11 bottom that can't be ignored most notably in oil. All bottoms unfold differently. But if this is the bottom it would be one of the more stealth of all time in stocks. We have yet to see a large breadth thrust…
G, from the article about the surge in August and October. The h0A0 *surged* less than 1% in the August move and only 3.6% in the October rally. The greatest surge in 2014 was 4%. This recent move including today's gain will be around 6%. A nice…
The proxy for junk bonds - the Merrill Lynch High Yield Master II Index - is now positive for the year. This amid the most negative headline news ever in that category - even more negative than 2008.
@Junkster It looks like everybody is jumping ship on Treasuries today and buying junk. Did you start this?
We both started on 2/12. This may surprise you. I hold 4 junk funds - my largest is PYHRX (doesn't accumulate daily) PHYDX, EIHIX ( I said…
The most maligned market over the recent year and longer (junk corporate bonds) up for February. How can that be??? Looks like they are leading equities YTD and already (even before today) numerous open end junk bond funds are positive YTD. 2/11 …
Everyone should revisit the 73-74 bear market to see how vicious bear market rallies can be. Regardless, I try to keep my opinions and the opinions of others out of my trading decisions.
Edit: This bear market domestically seems to be all about e…
Here is link to an article on February 8 where Gundlach predicted a collapse in the junk bond market.
So far he has been completely wrong. Junk bonds had another strong day today.
I'll believe junkster's opinion over Gundlach any day of the we…
Howdy guys,
Thanks for the kind words.
Been tree hugging but when the market started to puke and the metals started to move, this retiree got greedy and decided to see if he could still make a buck. Other than the investing basics, the one speci…
