Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Hi Hank,
Amen to that. I am certainly not recognizable today as the investor (speculator) I was 6 decades ago. Hell, I'm not the investor I was 6 months ago. Change happens as surely as aging does.
EDIT: And you are dead in the water if you s…
We'll find out soon if this uptrend continues.
Brilliant, Dex!
I usually am.
From what I have seen, in 2015 and YTD Dex's returns have been in the top 1% here. Positive by several % in 2015 and up over 1% YTD.
In a nutshell munis follow Treasuries and junk corporates follow oil/equities. I am hoping this big rally in junk corporates doesn't evaporate like so many in the recent past. If stocks and oil continue their ascent of the past three days expect w…
>> Listening to all those other opinions can distract you from your plan and lead you astray.
Definitely agree... +1 gives you 2!
Hi Dex,
Listening does not necessarily mean doing. The listening is just one of the data collection tasks. Th…
Let's say the equity markets close tomorrow as strong as the futures are indicating for the open. Then a *lot* has changed price-wise since the intraday lows Wednesday in stocks/oil/bond yields and the intraday highs in gold/silver. I would not…
Andy, Mainstay's MMHIX (no 5 million minimum at Scottrade) have been in numerous times since 2014. And you are right, not as volatile as the others in its category. However, since around mid 2015, the story has all been PYMDX as it has led the pa…
Actually, if I can remember correctly, excluding the 2008 financial crisis, the worst 12 months ever since the beginning of the new Milken era of junk bonds in the 1980s. They never ring bells at bottoms so will just keep probing and exiting with t…
So I would not have been allowed to post this link regarding his 2008 advice?
https://www.cxoadvisory.com/2745/individual-gurus/bob-brinker/
And some more favorable reviews below. Apparently 2008 was one of his few missed calls.
https://www.bog…
For what it's worth, Bob Brinker sent out a stock market Buy Alert ("market attractive for purchase") two days ago on Wednesday evening to his Market Timer newsletter subscribers. I don't subscribe, but I know somebody who does. Brinker rarely giv…
I am thinking yesterday's intraday lows in stocks/ bond yields/oil, and highs in gold could be it for a long time. But as I like to say, I never made any money by my thinking.
As I post this Dow futures up 68, gold down over 1%, Treasuries getting hit and oil up over 5%. Obviously one of these days we are going to get a huge snap back rally and probably led by biotech. Why not tomorrow - Friday. On the other hand, if…
I would worry some of these less friendly business candidates would change the exemptions for municipal bonds. The munis have done well in 2016 albeit not like the Treasuries. The junk munis not as well. HYD, the ETF for junk munis is having one…
I would worry some of these less friendly business candidates would change the exemptions for municipal bonds. The munis have done well in 2016 albeit not like the Treasuries. The junk munis not as well. HYD, the ETF for junk munis is having one…
Why not a N225 like event?
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^N225+Interactive#symbol=^N225;range=my
Dex, a bit off topic but have you seen the 2016 muni leader? Not our high yield munis but California munis.
Sometimes statistics become replacements for lack of insight.
I nominate that pithy little tidbit for the MFO Hall of Fame of market quotes. That's assuming of course you aren't on steroids!!
DlphcOracl you have been as spot-on as anyone here so far. For purely selfish reasons I hope your prescient analysis continues unabated. The more blood in the streets the better where no one wants to ever buy again. One place I differ is the dur…
I think it all depends on one's investing plan, circle of competence and, if you're a trader, the current investing environment for the issue at hand.
Speaking as one of the bigger fools in the room I don't believe rono would anymore trade his enti…
Yes it was a nice and well thought out post Ron. I am on the other end of the spectrum saying many times here that no one should trade, speculate, invest in precious metals. Silver is lower now than in the 1970s and gold not much above its 1970s h…
I believe this is why @junkster prefers low volatility assets so that you have more time without taking deep losses to make a judgment call rather than an automated decision but the idea of having an exit plan is still valid. He can correct me if I …
High Yield Corps - need to see how stocks behave - still a risky trade to me
They have actually bottomed before stocks YTD. At 36% going into today and will be 41% after the close. My friend here who trades like me is much higher. In the past I …
Junkster said:
The moral is be you a trader or investor is always have an exit point. So much thought goes into when to buy yet so little on when to sell.
To whom do you think he is addressing this advice?
This was just an observation on money mana…
Recall the buying and adding on this board in COP in the 60s? Not saying it's not a compelling value because frankly I haven't a clue.
A lowering of the dividend and the stock down 8% today. The board's resident analyst was really bullish on COP…
Tradeking supposedly charges $9.95 to buy a no-load fund, and another $9.95 to sell one, regardless of the holding period. I contacted them a few years ago and was told that they charge no short-term redemption fees other than what an individual fu…
Great work Andy and what a nice fund! Wish it didn't have that pesky short term redemption fee. As I mentioned to someone here, that would be something I would love to own if I could ever get into a retirement mode. I should be out hiking today a…
Personally, I don't think individual investors that don't have time/skills to put in a lot of effort into due diligence should be buying individual stocks. Almost, every time I have known something about a company, an investor's perception of that s…
High Yield Corps - need to see how stocks behave - still a risky trade to me
They have actually bottomed before stocks YTD. At 36% going into today and will be 41% after the close. My friend here who trades like me is much higher. In the past I …
@Junkster Thanks much. Do you try to avoid funds investing in oil related junk bonds?
DavidV yes, so far the better performing junk funds are the ones with the lowest exposure to oil. So although I try to avoid the oil laden ones, if junk has a f…
@Junkster What are buying in the junk corpotates and what fund you monitor for the trend ( if not JNK or HYG)?
DavidV monitor JNK and HYG intraday and how they are trading in relation to their previous day's NAV. That can tell you about the cash j…
After today will be up to around 6% in the junk corps with 84% in the junk munis and the rest in cash. Would like to sell some of the munis to get heavier in the corps if the market cooperates by working higher. Then again, the worst may be yet to…
After today will be up to around 6% in the junk corps with 84% in the junk munis and the rest in cash. Would like to sell some of the munis to get heavier in the corps if the market cooperates by working higher. Then again, the worst may be yet to…
The open end junk bond funds were up today in spite of the plunge in oil and the decline in equities. Nice positive divergence so let's see if it holds. Sentiment can't get much worse.
Meanwhile, the JNK and HYG ETFs were down .85% and .99% respe…
The open end junk bond funds were up today in spite of the plunge in oil and the decline in equities. Nice positive divergence so let's see if it holds. Sentiment can't get much worse.
Hi @Junkster and @Ted and @jstr
The link was not posted as a pure and expert driven presentation; but as a readable document that can provide other "food for thought" for those so inclined. As is normal, one's investment mileage will vary.
I did …
There are NO experts. Below is a link to his commentary of August 2010. Just scroll to the very end and he says the March 2009 lows would be broken within two years. I for one hope this time around he gets it right and we have much further to fal…
Earlier this year, I dumped a good bit of HC fund PRHSX and a bit of PRWCX, so they are now 5% and 20% of my portfolio. I am continuing to DCA into PRWCX even so and have stopped doing same with health care. I am 3/4s convinced that drug prices wi…
bee Could not answer this without a long missive. But yes, I find junk leads. I stay away from FAGIX because it is not a pure junk bond fund and thus too volatile. Junk bonds bottomed 12/16/08, months ahead of equities. I would be curious what y…
I bought a 10% position in TGHYX. Monthly dividends, but I don't think I'll be holding it very long.
A *whopping* 2.5% in MWHYX. Nowhere close to a 9 to 1 day. Posters here don't know (and I don't think he will mind) Slowlane is another one of t…
Every significant market low over the past 12 years has been accompanied by a Zweig buy signal (9 to 1 up volume over declining volume on the NYSE) The 2009 low had three within a week - a first. In the 70s and 80s this was THE indicator and the…
Third highest number of new lows going back to the 1960s. All we need now is a Zweig 9 to 1 day and we are at 7.5 intraday as I type this. Junk bond ETFs are trading way above yesterday's NAV too.
Edit: Never saw a panic VIX reading though.
