Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
The yields on junk bond funds go up during bear markets. In 2008 yields were in the teens. But in answer to your question, the dividend payout also goes down because of portfolio defaults. Even the best of junk bond funds will have portfolio defau…
Barrons discussed this in today's edition. You should be fine with your bank loan fund. They are yielding 5%. But they have been on a relentless roll since February with but a couple down days ala SAMBX (my favorite) and EVFAX. Even better have …
I certainly hope so and would love to see many more to come. Putting 25% or more in 5 year CDs has always been part of my retirement agenda. But not until they are in the 2.75% to 3% range. Then again, not sure I can can psychologically do that. …
Dex, you are comparing the charts of two open end funds where dividends accumulate daily and paid out end of month vs an ETF where dividends are handled differently and show as a decline on the charts end of month. Check the link to see how the jun…
Don't think Junkster falls into that camp. Doubt he's stumbling into trees while texting out on the trail.
Junkster is a Luddite. Never owned a smart phone or has ever texted. Still likes to use his VCR to record. What a dinosaur.
Not sure how coming to MFO every day is much different. Going to any Web Site on a routine basis actually.
+1 Much to my surprise I found I enjoy Facebook. I am in all sorts of hiking groups there. Learned of off the beaten path hiking areas (wa…
PTIAX Yes, very trend persistent but could never go there because of the short term redemption fee. As persistent as it has been, in 2016 somewhat disappointing returns compared to many other bond categories. Even that old standby PONDX has been …
Ha! Ha! I took some off the table Tuesday and Wednesday. Since I am apparently part of the herd we probably will regret it. Junk bonds are still hovering just a few percent off historical highs on a total return basis. It's the bank loans that b…
My latest equity adventure lasted less than a day. Stopped out with a $894 loss. Remind me to never venture into individual equities again!! Will stick with my bond funds from now on. LGND should be good to go now that I am out.
Biotech has been a minefield since last August. And I am no fan of that sector. But bought some LGND today. This is a stock I was buying in the $11 to $12 range in 2011 yet made very little. Stocks have never been my thing because of their volatil…
Sometimes the market speaks loud and clear like on 2/11
http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/25925/was-yesterday-it#latest
Just like on that day will be interested how the rest of this day unfolds and will be selling some junk corp…
Trusting reliable sources is not something I see as being fortunate, and certainly my own investing career has not been notably fortunate. I am comforted when sources mostly agree, with detailed reasoning, and can't wait until full rankings and anal…
Diminished expectations for “hawkish” action seems to be coaxing traders into riskier assets and away from government bonds:
I always worry that one of these days there will be an unexpected and nasty surprise coming out of a Fed meeting. Some of …
As Yoda would say, "Never at a loss for words or opinions, Mr. Gundlach is." I am so in awe.
Me too! Because I am so inept at predicting/forecasting I like to see if the "experts" are any better. Below are his predictions at his March 8 conferenc…
I'm afraid such constant comparing of funds would drive me nuts.
Except when I am hiking, with my ladyfriend, and sleeping, every moment is spent strategizing. And yes, it drives me nuts!!!
My income sleeve is up ytd about 2.75% which consist of six funds (GIFAX, LALDX, LBNDX, NEFZX, THIFX & TSIAX) and my hybrid income sleeve also consisting of six funds (CAPAX, CTFAX, FKINX, ISFAX, JNBAX & PGBAX) is up about 3.25%. Currently,…
@Junkster I see you trade MF rather frequently, trying to time the market. Do you ignore all fees for selling mutual funds prematurely or keep some discipline in doing that?
DavidV big difference between a timer and a trader. Timers predict and fo…
Interesting link, Ted, thanks for it. I'm curious what some of the many saavy bond investors here think about current junk valuations, @junkster and @dex maybe?
Not an investor but the "experts" are all over the ball park when it comes to the prospe…
MJG You and others have referenced my #1 life/trading book several times The Luck Factor by Max Gunther. But few take it to heart. As Mr. Gunther relates "there are five outstanding characteristics that distinguish the lucky from the unlucky". My…
Ron is an "expert" and very articulate and knowledgeable. So how could he have possibly lost money for you over the past 10 years. 99.5% of investors would be best served in a domestic index fund from Vanguard.
Thanks fundalarm nice post above. So let's get off topic. Any insights on bank loan/senior loans/leveraged loan/floating rate funds???? Talk about a stealth bull market or at least one under the radar. Some of the open end ala EVFAX have had …
i hope you're now suggesting that Gundlach doesn't know how to calculate total return for a bond fund.
he was referring to spread widening which started in August. junk spreads went to widths that were unheard of outside a full blown recession at …
David Snowball a fascinating subject where there is no right or wrong answer. My definition of low risk (and I have *extremely* to the max low risk tolerances) is not holding losers or underperformers under any circumstances. But then I am not an…
"In May we’re also hoping to provide new profiles of two old friends: Aston River Road Independent Value and Matthews Asian Growth & Income."
My take: no passive or actively managed fund should become an "old friend." Such attachment may result…
Total return charts are the only way to go with bond funds as they include reinvested dividends. Price only charts for bond funds don't *remotely* begin to paint an accurate picture. Don't mind me, just one of my pet peeves. I recall Gundlach say…
@Dan Hardy: Some reading material regarding bond spreads.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.schwab.com/public/schwab/nn/articles/Corporate-Bonds-Tread-Carefully-in-High-Yield-Market-in-2016
When the article came out three months ago sentiment in junk bonds …
Aren't you a little late to the party? They have been on a tear since January 2014. That is when they were a buying opportunity and returned in the mid to high teens. The trend continued into 2015 and remains intact YTD. If you think Treasury yiel…
Couldn't open link with my computer. But looking at the analyst estimates on Yahoo for 2016 and 2017 looks like only single digit annual gains in revenues and very little gain in EPS. Nice looking chart but I assume all the utilities have similar l…
We will have to revisit this in a few more months. Reminds me of the beginning of 2014 when the 10 year was around 3% and not a bond bull to be found. It was a foregone conclusion yields on the 10 yield would break 3% and head towards 4% before 20…
Thanks TSP-Transfer One of PIMCO's TIPs funds is up almost 7% YTD. I have never held so many bond funds preferring to be 100% in either junk munis or junk corporates - whichever is working best. But now holding bond funds in emerging markets, jun…
This is not directed at our resident financial planner but I believe the financial industry wants us to believe we will all live to a ripe old age because it benefits them. I mean there are very few 90 year old males around. If you read the obits …
Just another sign my generation better start living life to the fullest. We never know when our time will be up. Patty Duke who we all remember well passed away today at age 69. People may underestimate their spending in retirement but they also …
Thanks Junkster for posting. Your last paragraph sums it up !! Last week I changed my outlook , as I'm lucky to be here posting.
Derf
Derf, did you have a health issue last wee…
Retirement is another one of those fascinating topics where there is no right or wrong answer. Fortunately for me I hate to travel. Possibly because when I was younger I traveled all over the U.S. and got my fill. Also, for over 12 years one of my…
Well ... it doesn't feel like Easter in Michigan. I cleared over a foot of snow Friday morning for an elderly neighbor so she could get out of her driveway to attend church services. And while the snowblower is now resting, more snow is forecast fo…
Thanks junkster, but I only use the ETF because I can get out quickly (versus a fund). Just watching the trend, this ETF is moving nicely over the last month. What is it that you don't like about Bank loans in general.
Mike, in addition to my commen…
@Junkster Can you please explain your reasoning for advantages of one day lag with mutual funds. It seems counterintuitive as you are always late comparing with ETF.
Exploiting the one day lag in the open end junk finds to news/market action late i…
MJG I was quoting Dalbar back in the late 90s as well as numerous other sources ala MoniResearch, Timer Digest, Commodity Traders Consumer Reports, and Mark Hulbert to name just a few on the futility of beating the market averages. Also books suc…
Mike, I like the sector. It's just with the junk and bank loan ETFs you get exaggerated daily moves when everyone wants to get out. The open end you normally have a one day lag and you can play that to your advantage when adverse news (or for that…
