Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
@Junkster I see you trade MF rather frequently, trying to time the market. Do you ignore all fees for selling mutual funds prematurely or keep some discipline in doing that?
DavidV big difference between a timer and a trader. Timers predict and fo…
Interesting link, Ted, thanks for it. I'm curious what some of the many saavy bond investors here think about current junk valuations, @junkster and @dex maybe?
Not an investor but the "experts" are all over the ball park when it comes to the prospe…
MJG You and others have referenced my #1 life/trading book several times The Luck Factor by Max Gunther. But few take it to heart. As Mr. Gunther relates "there are five outstanding characteristics that distinguish the lucky from the unlucky". My…
Ron is an "expert" and very articulate and knowledgeable. So how could he have possibly lost money for you over the past 10 years. 99.5% of investors would be best served in a domestic index fund from Vanguard.
Thanks fundalarm nice post above. So let's get off topic. Any insights on bank loan/senior loans/leveraged loan/floating rate funds???? Talk about a stealth bull market or at least one under the radar. Some of the open end ala EVFAX have had …
i hope you're now suggesting that Gundlach doesn't know how to calculate total return for a bond fund.
he was referring to spread widening which started in August. junk spreads went to widths that were unheard of outside a full blown recession at …
David Snowball a fascinating subject where there is no right or wrong answer. My definition of low risk (and I have *extremely* to the max low risk tolerances) is not holding losers or underperformers under any circumstances. But then I am not an…
"In May we’re also hoping to provide new profiles of two old friends: Aston River Road Independent Value and Matthews Asian Growth & Income."
My take: no passive or actively managed fund should become an "old friend." Such attachment may result…
Total return charts are the only way to go with bond funds as they include reinvested dividends. Price only charts for bond funds don't *remotely* begin to paint an accurate picture. Don't mind me, just one of my pet peeves. I recall Gundlach say…
@Dan Hardy: Some reading material regarding bond spreads.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.schwab.com/public/schwab/nn/articles/Corporate-Bonds-Tread-Carefully-in-High-Yield-Market-in-2016
When the article came out three months ago sentiment in junk bonds …
Aren't you a little late to the party? They have been on a tear since January 2014. That is when they were a buying opportunity and returned in the mid to high teens. The trend continued into 2015 and remains intact YTD. If you think Treasury yiel…
Couldn't open link with my computer. But looking at the analyst estimates on Yahoo for 2016 and 2017 looks like only single digit annual gains in revenues and very little gain in EPS. Nice looking chart but I assume all the utilities have similar l…
We will have to revisit this in a few more months. Reminds me of the beginning of 2014 when the 10 year was around 3% and not a bond bull to be found. It was a foregone conclusion yields on the 10 yield would break 3% and head towards 4% before 20…
Thanks TSP-Transfer One of PIMCO's TIPs funds is up almost 7% YTD. I have never held so many bond funds preferring to be 100% in either junk munis or junk corporates - whichever is working best. But now holding bond funds in emerging markets, jun…
This is not directed at our resident financial planner but I believe the financial industry wants us to believe we will all live to a ripe old age because it benefits them. I mean there are very few 90 year old males around. If you read the obits …
Just another sign my generation better start living life to the fullest. We never know when our time will be up. Patty Duke who we all remember well passed away today at age 69. People may underestimate their spending in retirement but they also …
Thanks Junkster for posting. Your last paragraph sums it up !! Last week I changed my outlook , as I'm lucky to be here posting.
Derf
Derf, did you have a health issue last wee…
Retirement is another one of those fascinating topics where there is no right or wrong answer. Fortunately for me I hate to travel. Possibly because when I was younger I traveled all over the U.S. and got my fill. Also, for over 12 years one of my…
Well ... it doesn't feel like Easter in Michigan. I cleared over a foot of snow Friday morning for an elderly neighbor so she could get out of her driveway to attend church services. And while the snowblower is now resting, more snow is forecast fo…
Thanks junkster, but I only use the ETF because I can get out quickly (versus a fund). Just watching the trend, this ETF is moving nicely over the last month. What is it that you don't like about Bank loans in general.
Mike, in addition to my commen…
@Junkster Can you please explain your reasoning for advantages of one day lag with mutual funds. It seems counterintuitive as you are always late comparing with ETF.
Exploiting the one day lag in the open end junk finds to news/market action late i…
MJG I was quoting Dalbar back in the late 90s as well as numerous other sources ala MoniResearch, Timer Digest, Commodity Traders Consumer Reports, and Mark Hulbert to name just a few on the futility of beating the market averages. Also books suc…
Mike, I like the sector. It's just with the junk and bank loan ETFs you get exaggerated daily moves when everyone wants to get out. The open end you normally have a one day lag and you can play that to your advantage when adverse news (or for that…
I noticed the nice bank loan trend over the last couple months and decided to make my own "Junkster-trend-play" earlier this week. Bought some BKLN, power shares senior loan etf.
Mike, hope the trade works out for you. However, if you recall some …
MJG You may be surprised that I believe 99.5% of investors would be better served with a passive buy and hold in a Vanguard 500 Index fund or better yet a Vanguard 60%/40% fund. I have seen scant evidence an active strategy works in real time with…
Spending, whether in retirement or any other time along life's continuum often doesn't net out as zero. Money spent on real items verses services retain some tangible value. This is why there are auctions, estate sales, and tag sales. Obviously we a…
My biggest mistakes were listening to people here about investing in the hot stock catigories. By the time we start talking about the hot sectors on a discussion board, you are already getting in towards the top. Commodities, minors, gold, ect... I…
I have been a bit obsessed recently with retirement - which means less trading. I have given deferred annuities a close look including the newer QLAC's. As much as I try though, I just can't get into them. For the most part you just get your prin…
Nice post Hank About the only negative (and there are always negatives) has been the action in small/mid cap biotech and to a lesser degree large cap of the same. Bull or bear, a more than average profitable trading rally in just about everything e…
Disaster was probably too strong a term; "surprisingly poor" sounds about right.
When the panic passes, he might ease back on the amount of ballast and benefit from a substantial rebound in oversold securities.
Agree, surprising poor sounds bette…
A negative surprise by the Fed tomorrow, which no one seems to be expecting, could derail things. The action in biotech and healthcare continues anemic. Junk bonds having their worse day since the 2/11 bottom. Oil backing off some from its rece…
I believe every rally is THE rally and play it as such. That way I never miss out when it actually is THE rally. How much I lose on the times it is not THE rally and how much I make when it is THE rally is all about my trade management. Clear as …
FYI: Talk to some traders right now and you’ll hear the smartest ones talking about fading each edge of the range – the market-wide breakouts and breakdowns are all false.
Only amateurs are making high-conviction moves these days. They get beari…
The article sort of answers its own question. Basically only an idiot would be excited at the market at this time Most I know are holding on and hoping to survive without a significant loss.
Count me as an idiot. How can one not be excited about th…
I would have to look, but haven't hedge funds performed absolutely miserably since 1/1/2009? Just another example of "there are no experts". Once investors grasp that tenet they can begin going about developing their own money management strategi…
We will have to revisit Mr. Gundlach predictions sometime down the road. PIMCO has a different and positive view on junk bonds - see link below. I have no idea on stocks, junk bonds or whatever. Albeit I am lighter than I was last week in the ju…
Well we get to here his thoughts again Tuesday !
Jeffrey Gundlach (who many follow blindly because he is an expert and manages billions)
http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/26347/another-open-mic-for-doubleline-s-jeffery-gundach-con…
My high yield pick is PHYZX - low expenses of .58, seasoned management, and rated 5 stars by M*.
Among the better junk bond funds and wondered why it has never been on a my radar screen. Now I remember. At Scottrade where I trade it is only availa…
