Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
I would be nice if said "expert" proves prescient. Junk corporates - HYG and JNK - not overbought not and on his list. Yet, various junk bond indexes are at all time historic highs ala the Merrill Lynch High Yield Master II Index. I would think/h…
Waylon Jennings sang:
Lookin' for love
I've spent a lifetime looking for you
Single bars and good time lovers, never true
Playing a fools game, hoping to win
Telling those sweet lies and losing again.
I was looking for love in all the wrong places…
Hi @Charles,
Thanks for posting how SPY & AGG has performed and split 50/50 would have performed with a return of about 5.75%. This is something that I monitor but in mutual fund form and not in etf form.
My mutual fund 50/50 portfolio that I…
In junk corps I hold WAHYX and CHBAX after selling IVHIX. I still think junk will see double digit returns in 2016 but I hold only 30% in junk corporates. That is very, very light for me. That is because they are more volatile than normal this ye…
Been away on a hiking vacation. Good for you and and your 6.63% YTD beats most investors as well as your return last year. You have more staying power than me as I have moved on to junk coporates. I am not as heavy there as I am wont to be because…
Much of the outperformance of the high yield munis, especially PYMDX, can be attributed to their exposure to tobacco bonds. Morningstar had an informative article (which I can't link) to the dangers lurking there.
Sometimes I think some high profile managers say things to draw attention to themselves to keep them in the spotlight. Is Bill Gross even relevant anymore?? We have been hearing for more than a few years now how low returns going forward will be t…
Slowlane You are doing great and beating my 6%+ YTD. You should clarify that your 7.5% is your portfolio return YTD as you only trade bonds. I am still real wary of corp junk. It is still about oil in that sector. If we head back down will roll…
Junk corp continue to defy the experts - the H0A0 is up 8.07% YTD. Since this is a universe of over 2000 companies (no cash) it will outperform during bull runs. Still, the average mutual fund in this category is up 5.60% YTD with many of the bett…
1.7% since he took over in October 2014 Obviously my account is but a miscroscopic fraction of Mr Ex Bond King. So who am I to talk. But seems like less than a pedestrian return in Bondville and you would have been better off in a 5 year CD.
htt…
The yields on junk bond funds go up during bear markets. In 2008 yields were in the teens. But in answer to your question, the dividend payout also goes down because of portfolio defaults. Even the best of junk bond funds will have portfolio defau…
Barrons discussed this in today's edition. You should be fine with your bank loan fund. They are yielding 5%. But they have been on a relentless roll since February with but a couple down days ala SAMBX (my favorite) and EVFAX. Even better have …
I certainly hope so and would love to see many more to come. Putting 25% or more in 5 year CDs has always been part of my retirement agenda. But not until they are in the 2.75% to 3% range. Then again, not sure I can can psychologically do that. …
Dex, you are comparing the charts of two open end funds where dividends accumulate daily and paid out end of month vs an ETF where dividends are handled differently and show as a decline on the charts end of month. Check the link to see how the jun…
Don't think Junkster falls into that camp. Doubt he's stumbling into trees while texting out on the trail.
Junkster is a Luddite. Never owned a smart phone or has ever texted. Still likes to use his VCR to record. What a dinosaur.
Not sure how coming to MFO every day is much different. Going to any Web Site on a routine basis actually.
+1 Much to my surprise I found I enjoy Facebook. I am in all sorts of hiking groups there. Learned of off the beaten path hiking areas (wa…
PTIAX Yes, very trend persistent but could never go there because of the short term redemption fee. As persistent as it has been, in 2016 somewhat disappointing returns compared to many other bond categories. Even that old standby PONDX has been …
Ha! Ha! I took some off the table Tuesday and Wednesday. Since I am apparently part of the herd we probably will regret it. Junk bonds are still hovering just a few percent off historical highs on a total return basis. It's the bank loans that b…
My latest equity adventure lasted less than a day. Stopped out with a $894 loss. Remind me to never venture into individual equities again!! Will stick with my bond funds from now on. LGND should be good to go now that I am out.
Biotech has been a minefield since last August. And I am no fan of that sector. But bought some LGND today. This is a stock I was buying in the $11 to $12 range in 2011 yet made very little. Stocks have never been my thing because of their volatil…
Sometimes the market speaks loud and clear like on 2/11
http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/25925/was-yesterday-it#latest
Just like on that day will be interested how the rest of this day unfolds and will be selling some junk corp…
Trusting reliable sources is not something I see as being fortunate, and certainly my own investing career has not been notably fortunate. I am comforted when sources mostly agree, with detailed reasoning, and can't wait until full rankings and anal…
Diminished expectations for “hawkish” action seems to be coaxing traders into riskier assets and away from government bonds:
I always worry that one of these days there will be an unexpected and nasty surprise coming out of a Fed meeting. Some of …
As Yoda would say, "Never at a loss for words or opinions, Mr. Gundlach is." I am so in awe.
Me too! Because I am so inept at predicting/forecasting I like to see if the "experts" are any better. Below are his predictions at his March 8 conferenc…
I'm afraid such constant comparing of funds would drive me nuts.
Except when I am hiking, with my ladyfriend, and sleeping, every moment is spent strategizing. And yes, it drives me nuts!!!
My income sleeve is up ytd about 2.75% which consist of six funds (GIFAX, LALDX, LBNDX, NEFZX, THIFX & TSIAX) and my hybrid income sleeve also consisting of six funds (CAPAX, CTFAX, FKINX, ISFAX, JNBAX & PGBAX) is up about 3.25%. Currently,…
@Junkster I see you trade MF rather frequently, trying to time the market. Do you ignore all fees for selling mutual funds prematurely or keep some discipline in doing that?
DavidV big difference between a timer and a trader. Timers predict and fo…
Interesting link, Ted, thanks for it. I'm curious what some of the many saavy bond investors here think about current junk valuations, @junkster and @dex maybe?
Not an investor but the "experts" are all over the ball park when it comes to the prospe…
MJG You and others have referenced my #1 life/trading book several times The Luck Factor by Max Gunther. But few take it to heart. As Mr. Gunther relates "there are five outstanding characteristics that distinguish the lucky from the unlucky". My…
Ron is an "expert" and very articulate and knowledgeable. So how could he have possibly lost money for you over the past 10 years. 99.5% of investors would be best served in a domestic index fund from Vanguard.
Thanks fundalarm nice post above. So let's get off topic. Any insights on bank loan/senior loans/leveraged loan/floating rate funds???? Talk about a stealth bull market or at least one under the radar. Some of the open end ala EVFAX have had …
i hope you're now suggesting that Gundlach doesn't know how to calculate total return for a bond fund.
he was referring to spread widening which started in August. junk spreads went to widths that were unheard of outside a full blown recession at …
David Snowball a fascinating subject where there is no right or wrong answer. My definition of low risk (and I have *extremely* to the max low risk tolerances) is not holding losers or underperformers under any circumstances. But then I am not an…
"In May we’re also hoping to provide new profiles of two old friends: Aston River Road Independent Value and Matthews Asian Growth & Income."
My take: no passive or actively managed fund should become an "old friend." Such attachment may result…
Total return charts are the only way to go with bond funds as they include reinvested dividends. Price only charts for bond funds don't *remotely* begin to paint an accurate picture. Don't mind me, just one of my pet peeves. I recall Gundlach say…
@Dan Hardy: Some reading material regarding bond spreads.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.schwab.com/public/schwab/nn/articles/Corporate-Bonds-Tread-Carefully-in-High-Yield-Market-in-2016
When the article came out three months ago sentiment in junk bonds …
Aren't you a little late to the party? They have been on a tear since January 2014. That is when they were a buying opportunity and returned in the mid to high teens. The trend continued into 2015 and remains intact YTD. If you think Treasury yiel…
Couldn't open link with my computer. But looking at the analyst estimates on Yahoo for 2016 and 2017 looks like only single digit annual gains in revenues and very little gain in EPS. Nice looking chart but I assume all the utilities have similar l…
