Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
If the performance of the past three months (a period of rising rates and falling Treasuries and munis) is any preview, the places to be are high yield corporates and bank loan/floating rate funds. I hope rates continue to rise and surprise on the …
I can't predict or forecast anymore than the man in the moon. While "hope" won't get you anywhere in the markets, I have been "hoping" (for more reasons than one) that rates rise and that a generational low in rates is already in place. Seems ever…
If you check out the taxable bond categories vs the municipal bond categories the munis are really lagging in 2016 (even when you factor in the tax advantage for the munis) Crowded trade?
http://news.morningstar.com/fund-category-returns/
well, fidelity said no, it's against federal regs to give bonuses after the move is complete.
here's the note i got from f:
Thank you for following up with us regarding our promotional offers. I am happy to further assist you with this informat…
Maybe we should add the adage "When you have won the game, stop playing" Meaning CDs and money market funds only. Are there not older investors who have accumulated enough of a nest egg that there is no longer a need to take risk.
hmmm. well, i just transfered well over 250k but far less than 1 mil to fidelity by closing out my wellstrade account and i did not to think of asking for a bonus. crap. think i should ask for one retroactively?
in the alternate, i have a big pi…
@Junkster - can you tell me how Fidelity is providing $3,750 to your account? I'm currently in the process of transferring a rollover IRA to them and transferring a taxable account to them as well.
I know there offer commission free trades (but no …
I have been at Scottrade since around 2003/4. I thought they were top notch and especially my local branch manager. But was on the line today with various reps from Fidelity. I will be transferring my IRA Monday and then later my taxable. It's no…
Bonds, the most crowded trade since...... seems to be unraveling. I would think today's action scares the Fed into not going the week after next but who knows. I would love a rising rate scenario making CDs and money market more competitive. Remain…
SCMFX What is there to like about a fund that has significantly underperformed its category YTD, 1 Yr, 3 YR, and 5 Yr ?? SEEDX isn't much better. One common refrain (excuse) when investors hold underperforming funds is it's for diversification …
Not exactly an answer to your question but "lower returns going forward" seems to be the latest buzz phrase. Actually has been around many years and popularized by the likes of Jeremy Grantham long ago and others (especially value managers) Last …
This is especially true in a very slow, careful increase in rates as we are likely to have. I hope you are right as bank loan funds may be the place to be. And would love to see a corresponding rise in CD yields. Albeit I have been hearing this r…
ETNMX has a really interesting mix of assets. Thanks for the tip, TSP, gonna look into that one. It's slightly outdone NWQAX.LW, which is pretty good.
No short term redemption fee and NTF at Scottrade. Looks good! But then 2016 is turning out to b…
The thirst for yield continues unabated. Today is something like the 11th day this month junk bonds have hit all time highs. About 2 weeks ago for the first time in 18 months junk bonds began ignoring oil. Curious if that will continue if oil bre…
"This time it's different".
Typically when this trope appears it refers to a situation in some particular sector of finance which is suspected of being in the "bubble" mode. For example, internet/tech, housing, etc. The "this time" characterization…
But I remain puzzled by the emphasis that you and others place on the fact that stock dividends fell below long term treasuries in 1957. Total annual returns are the pertinent measure of any investment’s anticipated value.
My only point was in refe…
MJG I think you missed my point. This has nothing to do with the *performance* of stocks vs. bonds. Just the unthinkable and this time it really was different as 1958 was a watershed event in that for the first time ever bonds yielded more than s…
MJG You may want to go back to 1958 and what happened to stock yields vs bond yields. It was a big thing at the time. Something that had never occurred in history and remained that way for many decades. Albeit not suggesting that it is different …
AJ, First chart is reality and what is happening to those who actually trade/invest/own a junk bond fund. Second is not reality because it is only price and dividends are not included. (Click on five year time period if my link only shows one yea…
@MikeW: " I'm currently pondering investing in Mathews Asia Strategic Income..." MAINX . I still track this one. I think that in spite of itself, it has shown itself to be a good choice. It's limited to Asia, though Morningstar puts it in their W…
You can't use traditional technical analysis with junk bond ETFs ala JNK or HYG. In reality, junk bonds hit all time highs on 6/8/16 and then again on 6/23 right before BREXIT. Previous all time high was 5/31/15. They are on a roll now hitting al…
Of note: Many hedge funds are using EFT's as part of a portfolio. Obviously, some of the hedge funds money flows are large. One may suspect some of the reported flows from Ted's link article are hedge fund related.
I've also seen hedge fund buys …
What counts is a long term real money track record using the various forecasting models referenced. I spent decades monitoring the real money results of the so-called experts from Futures Truth, MoniReserach, Hulbert Financial Digest, and Dalbar, …
Fortunately outperformance in the markets has nothing to do with forecasting or predicting. Were that the case I would be eating dog food and living in my 96 year old mother's basement. Money management, money management and more money management.
heezsafe First article outdated and reflects the Brexit exit from junk bonds. Have you checked the most recent heavy inflows? And the author is completely off base about how much HYG remains off its 2014 highs. Like so many he is only looking at…
What a week for junk! One thing I don't like about the week is that I am not fully invested in corp junk. I still have 30% in muni junk and 10% in PFORX. @Junkster - I like your WAHYX and I also own ABHIX and PYHIX.
I got off the muni wagon too s…
On the other hand, this week has seen the most positive divergence in many a moon between junk corporates and oil. Either because the rush to yield continues or the oil defaults to come have finally been factored into junk bond prices.
I would be nice if said "expert" proves prescient. Junk corporates - HYG and JNK - not overbought not and on his list. Yet, various junk bond indexes are at all time historic highs ala the Merrill Lynch High Yield Master II Index. I would think/h…
Waylon Jennings sang:
Lookin' for love
I've spent a lifetime looking for you
Single bars and good time lovers, never true
Playing a fools game, hoping to win
Telling those sweet lies and losing again.
I was looking for love in all the wrong places…
Hi @Charles,
Thanks for posting how SPY & AGG has performed and split 50/50 would have performed with a return of about 5.75%. This is something that I monitor but in mutual fund form and not in etf form.
My mutual fund 50/50 portfolio that I…
In junk corps I hold WAHYX and CHBAX after selling IVHIX. I still think junk will see double digit returns in 2016 but I hold only 30% in junk corporates. That is very, very light for me. That is because they are more volatile than normal this ye…
Been away on a hiking vacation. Good for you and and your 6.63% YTD beats most investors as well as your return last year. You have more staying power than me as I have moved on to junk coporates. I am not as heavy there as I am wont to be because…
Much of the outperformance of the high yield munis, especially PYMDX, can be attributed to their exposure to tobacco bonds. Morningstar had an informative article (which I can't link) to the dangers lurking there.
Sometimes I think some high profile managers say things to draw attention to themselves to keep them in the spotlight. Is Bill Gross even relevant anymore?? We have been hearing for more than a few years now how low returns going forward will be t…
Slowlane You are doing great and beating my 6%+ YTD. You should clarify that your 7.5% is your portfolio return YTD as you only trade bonds. I am still real wary of corp junk. It is still about oil in that sector. If we head back down will roll…
Junk corp continue to defy the experts - the H0A0 is up 8.07% YTD. Since this is a universe of over 2000 companies (no cash) it will outperform during bull runs. Still, the average mutual fund in this category is up 5.60% YTD with many of the bett…
1.7% since he took over in October 2014 Obviously my account is but a miscroscopic fraction of Mr Ex Bond King. So who am I to talk. But seems like less than a pedestrian return in Bondville and you would have been better off in a 5 year CD.
htt…
The yields on junk bond funds go up during bear markets. In 2008 yields were in the teens. But in answer to your question, the dividend payout also goes down because of portfolio defaults. Even the best of junk bond funds will have portfolio defau…
