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I literally was about to post this very link with some caustic comments. Like do financial writers ever get it right?? Saying HYG and JNK are up roughly 13% the past year is so out of touch with reality - the reality being they are up (before toda…
@hank said Mark Vaselkov made PRHYX what it became. I'd be reluctant to invest in a Price high yield fund without his being at the helm. From my experience their fixed income people are hit and miss - but Vaselkov is a great one.
Sounds like you …
Back in the 80s and 90s sentiment indicators worked well. Since then not so well. Most likely because sentiment suddenly became en vogue as an indicator with several advisory/newsletter services devoted solely to sentiment springing up. I always…
It has been the same doomsday commentary on the junk debt wall year after year after year. Here is the (same) commentary last year. A 12 months where the average junk fund was up 19% or so. The second link is a positive view of the upcoming debt …
I am now 65% junk corporates - IVHIX and MNHYX - and 35% bank loans - BXFYX. I knew it was not a good sign when Gundlach recommended bank loans so have lightened up there in favor of junk corporates. This whole rising rate scenario embraced by eve…
I remember the 1958 sudden death championship game. I was always a Unitas fan because he attended college in my hometown. This game tonight surpassed that "greatest game of all time." Even before tonight Brady was the greatest QB of all time. I w…
Today, he sees the most opportunity in bank loans and asset-backed securities.
Is there anybody that does not like bank loans?? They have been stellar now for the past year along with junk corporates and emerging markets bonds. But this universa…
@MikeM2 This is way more than you are bargaining for but am just now working on a free update to something I wrote long ago. Below is a small part of that and a work still in progress. So I apologize for the tedious read. As you will see below, …
Yes, a good thread. bee, AGDYX is closed to new investors at Scottrade. I have traded it in past bull markets and you can't go wrong there. As for VWEHX vs PRHYX the reason I like Price better than Vanguard is Vanguard is run a bit too conservati…
I just saw your mention of WHIYX the IVY High Yield fund. I hold that in the form of IVHIX but would advise against it. It is among the junkiest of high yield funds. The reason it has performed well the past year is because the lower rated junk b…
Ted, PLEASE get well and come back soon. This is an almost 3 week old link and really old news. Bonds must be even more ridiculously oversold now being they were 2.38 at the time of the interview.
My portfolio of solely bond funds was up 12.26% in 2016. But I can't hold a candle to @Junkster records of beating the S&P.
I posted my returns on Bogleheads last week (Trader/Investor) and talk about close 12.36% which reflect our similar styl…
55% in bank loan fund BXFYX and 45% in junk corporate IVHIX. Bank loans are overloved and overbought while junk corporates are just overbought. Since 12/08 my goal has been to beat the S&P total return trading bond funds and with minimal drawd…
What is even more scary is the performance of the CMG funds most especially their long/short fund. Still, glad to see some contrarians out there as bullishness in many of the sentiment polls is beyond ebullient now.
http://www.cmgmutualfunds.com/f…
You DO know these guys have no more clue than you, me, or the man in the moon? As for the so called experts, one of the very best, if not best sentiment indicators out there is the venerable Bank of America sell side indicator (formerly the Merrill…
BI? BL? (Bank loans?) @Junkster: What do you make of THIS one? http://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/pffrx/quote.html
Crash I am a momentum type trader. In the short run trends tend to persist and even more so with bond funds. That is why I fa…
You yourself stated ""sure thing" trades always make me leery", you reduced your allocation from 100% to 80%. Of course, this does not mean your bearish, I presume just concerned.
This was merely to get some exposure to corporate junk. I am very b…
@TSP_Transfer: DBLTX. Yes. I was staying away because it's already crowded. But you may have just changed my mind! Thanks.
A pretty woeful three months when rates were rising. Maybe if rates are lower going forward this would be a good selection.
Why do many seem so be down on BL funds?
I would sure like to know the whos that are so down on bank loans. Even before the election that category has been the most overloved out there and the most recommended for a rising rate scenario. Rates …
Through Friday over the past three months Morningstar's 16 taxable bond fund categories show 12 with negative returns. Two have small positive returns under 0.75% The two real winners have been bank loans at 2.20% and high yield corporates at 2.15…
If every investment reporter/writer posted many or all of their own pieces here, as this person is doing, this board would be nothing but a free forum for said writers to promote themselves and the publications they write for. I'm for a ban on such …
2 questions for Junkster if you don't mind.
BXFYX looks to be a pretty small fund (100mil). Do you worry about when you exit, you will get hammered with your exit price since it sounds like you have a fair amount invested?
Seems like you are i…
Their managed futures fund (QMHIX/QMHRX) is heavily touted by a Pied Piper over on the Bogleheads board. YUCK! Down over 13% YTD!! Maybe some don't mind underperforming for 3,4, or 5 years as the article points out, but not my idea of accumulati…
December and January are the best months seasonally for high yield junk bonds. They have survived the rise in Treasuries as have bank loans/floating rate. That category (bank loan) has seemed like a "can't miss" trade since the real bottom in Tre…
Gundlach obviously knows bonds (albeit not corporate junk bonds where he is almost always bearish) but he certainly knows no more than you, me, and the man in the moon when it comes to stocks.
Here's his call in early March where he said stocks had…
Speaking of the pathetic state of journalism, you might think about (but largely avoid reading) the current U.S. News article, "This book obliterates active management." The book is another of Larry Swedroe's shots at active management; smart guy, …
Don't put all your eggs in one basket !
Derf
Been doing just that since 1985. I never was much for conventional wisdom.
Edit: The above is incorrect. Been doing that since 1966. Just it took me …
Floating rate funds move almost lock-step with high yield corporates albeit without the volatility (2008 was an exception) They seem now like a no brainer, can't miss, sure thing trade with among other things the Fed expected to raise rates next mo…
Here's a link to a topic I discussed earlier this morning about the sudden love affair with floating rate funds being a panacea for rising rates
http://blogs.barrons.com/incomeinvesting/2016/11/16/why-floating-rate-loans-may-not-rise-in-price-when-…
It's a bit distressing to see all the sudden enthusiasm here, there, and everywhere with floating rate/bank loan funds. The last thing I want to see is that category becoming "groupthink" and the "logical" place to go. In the real world we have see…
Hum?
Don't mean to rub it in. But us who has some PRPFX in our holdings are wondering what all the excitement is about?
Just another dull day ... up a modest 0.44%
:)
Yes, PRPFX has certainly come to life this year with impressive double digit ga…
It's pretty wild, so I had to doublecheck this on the Powershares site after seeing it on M*: PCY (US$) and LEMB (local currency) both fell in price today ~ 2x the drop in the IIV, resulting in very wide discounts, for etf's.
Here's PCY, discount …
y0ungmoney.blogspot.com/2014/11/kill-your-investing-gurus-jim-rogers.html
In the long run, Jim Rogers has been about as wrong as any guru out there on just about every asset class under the sun. Reminds me of the ex-resident stock picker on this fo…
I believe this is @Junkster's discretionary fund for hiking shoes and peanut butter sandwiches.
Stay fully invested, have stops in place and live frugally...works for me.
You pretty much nailed it! Love when those monthly dividends are posted to…
Ha-Ha! There is a reason it's $66 (and not 0) and that's a result of an issue I once had with an exchange between the same fund family and the need to have $66 in my cash balance.
All in here, 50/50; equity/bonds ($257 in cash account). As the markets remain perverted by central bank policy(s), earnings adjusted by accounting methods and cranial/rectal inversion in the area of political warfare and those who will retain their…
Meanwhile back in the real world several categories of bond funds have double digit gains in 2016. Flight occurs way after the fact and prices have already been in a pronounced downtrend. That is what occurred with the Third Avenue High Yield fund…
