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@Derf no not at all. Two of my 8 funds are floating rate. I hope to consolidate that down to one most likely EIFAX. But the returns in that sector have been very muted this year.
I have made a major overhaul. I no longer need/want to take *any* risk. But before I go the CD laddering and money market route thought I would try something first. I hold 8 bond funds the most funds I have ever held. Sort of a fund of funds appr…
It was a given the open end would be up today based on how far they (the ETFs) were trading above yesterday's NAV. Yesterday the last hour or two the ETFs rallied way above the previous day's NAV forecasting a catch up day for the open end today. …
I see all sorts of signs of a market top or at least a 5% to 10% pullback. The problem is too many others do too. And won't we get that infamous 3 steps and a stumble rule come Wednesday (or is that outdated)
And that divergence grows even more so today. After newsletter sentiment reached multi decades highs in bullishness, now all I am seeing is how technically vulnerable the market is.
I can make a case a reset is coming or has already arrived. But…
As of last night's close 70% cash and 30% bank loan. I have been making adjustments based on personal/retirement issues however. The link below from this site may be prophetic. Let's hope that panic buying day last week is not the reverse of that …
@Junkster Did you trim your bank loan position? It seems to me it should be safe during a correction caused by stock overvaluation. SAMBX is up 0.11% today when everything is down.
On the Feb 23 posted I was 100% junk corporates. Bank loans have bee…
Next month I turn the big 70. I will be making changes in how I approach the markets, risk, and return. I am working on a retirement plan (expenses) but without LTC insurance. I've thought about LTC as well as annuities. But because I am single, …
It's nuts. Trimmed a bit today.
+1 now about 15% in cash. Probably good we are all worried though as markets seldom accommodate the worriers. I don't recall many worriers at the tops in 2000 and 2007. Still, will continue to raise cash if nece…
I agree with you. At least since the market bottom in early 2009 I have seen scant evidence MFOers have beaten a buy and hold in the Vanguard S&P 500 fund. Or for that matter come remotely close. Lots of international and emerging market inves…
Gambling is not a word I want associated with my retirement portfolio.
"Would MFO exists if everyone indexed?"....I wish someone would have forum posted me senseless years ago about the virtues of indexing. It would have made me a lot more money.
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I literally was about to post this very link with some caustic comments. Like do financial writers ever get it right?? Saying HYG and JNK are up roughly 13% the past year is so out of touch with reality - the reality being they are up (before toda…
@hank said Mark Vaselkov made PRHYX what it became. I'd be reluctant to invest in a Price high yield fund without his being at the helm. From my experience their fixed income people are hit and miss - but Vaselkov is a great one.
Sounds like you …
Back in the 80s and 90s sentiment indicators worked well. Since then not so well. Most likely because sentiment suddenly became en vogue as an indicator with several advisory/newsletter services devoted solely to sentiment springing up. I always…
It has been the same doomsday commentary on the junk debt wall year after year after year. Here is the (same) commentary last year. A 12 months where the average junk fund was up 19% or so. The second link is a positive view of the upcoming debt …
I am now 65% junk corporates - IVHIX and MNHYX - and 35% bank loans - BXFYX. I knew it was not a good sign when Gundlach recommended bank loans so have lightened up there in favor of junk corporates. This whole rising rate scenario embraced by eve…
I remember the 1958 sudden death championship game. I was always a Unitas fan because he attended college in my hometown. This game tonight surpassed that "greatest game of all time." Even before tonight Brady was the greatest QB of all time. I w…
Today, he sees the most opportunity in bank loans and asset-backed securities.
Is there anybody that does not like bank loans?? They have been stellar now for the past year along with junk corporates and emerging markets bonds. But this universa…
@MikeM2 This is way more than you are bargaining for but am just now working on a free update to something I wrote long ago. Below is a small part of that and a work still in progress. So I apologize for the tedious read. As you will see below, …
Yes, a good thread. bee, AGDYX is closed to new investors at Scottrade. I have traded it in past bull markets and you can't go wrong there. As for VWEHX vs PRHYX the reason I like Price better than Vanguard is Vanguard is run a bit too conservati…
I just saw your mention of WHIYX the IVY High Yield fund. I hold that in the form of IVHIX but would advise against it. It is among the junkiest of high yield funds. The reason it has performed well the past year is because the lower rated junk b…
Ted, PLEASE get well and come back soon. This is an almost 3 week old link and really old news. Bonds must be even more ridiculously oversold now being they were 2.38 at the time of the interview.
My portfolio of solely bond funds was up 12.26% in 2016. But I can't hold a candle to @Junkster records of beating the S&P.
I posted my returns on Bogleheads last week (Trader/Investor) and talk about close 12.36% which reflect our similar styl…
55% in bank loan fund BXFYX and 45% in junk corporate IVHIX. Bank loans are overloved and overbought while junk corporates are just overbought. Since 12/08 my goal has been to beat the S&P total return trading bond funds and with minimal drawd…
What is even more scary is the performance of the CMG funds most especially their long/short fund. Still, glad to see some contrarians out there as bullishness in many of the sentiment polls is beyond ebullient now.
http://www.cmgmutualfunds.com/f…
You DO know these guys have no more clue than you, me, or the man in the moon? As for the so called experts, one of the very best, if not best sentiment indicators out there is the venerable Bank of America sell side indicator (formerly the Merrill…
BI? BL? (Bank loans?) @Junkster: What do you make of THIS one? http://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/pffrx/quote.html
Crash I am a momentum type trader. In the short run trends tend to persist and even more so with bond funds. That is why I fa…
You yourself stated ""sure thing" trades always make me leery", you reduced your allocation from 100% to 80%. Of course, this does not mean your bearish, I presume just concerned.
This was merely to get some exposure to corporate junk. I am very b…
@TSP_Transfer: DBLTX. Yes. I was staying away because it's already crowded. But you may have just changed my mind! Thanks.
A pretty woeful three months when rates were rising. Maybe if rates are lower going forward this would be a good selection.
Why do many seem so be down on BL funds?
I would sure like to know the whos that are so down on bank loans. Even before the election that category has been the most overloved out there and the most recommended for a rising rate scenario. Rates …
Through Friday over the past three months Morningstar's 16 taxable bond fund categories show 12 with negative returns. Two have small positive returns under 0.75% The two real winners have been bank loans at 2.20% and high yield corporates at 2.15…
If every investment reporter/writer posted many or all of their own pieces here, as this person is doing, this board would be nothing but a free forum for said writers to promote themselves and the publications they write for. I'm for a ban on such …
2 questions for Junkster if you don't mind.
BXFYX looks to be a pretty small fund (100mil). Do you worry about when you exit, you will get hammered with your exit price since it sounds like you have a fair amount invested?
Seems like you are i…
Their managed futures fund (QMHIX/QMHRX) is heavily touted by a Pied Piper over on the Bogleheads board. YUCK! Down over 13% YTD!! Maybe some don't mind underperforming for 3,4, or 5 years as the article points out, but not my idea of accumulati…
December and January are the best months seasonally for high yield junk bonds. They have survived the rise in Treasuries as have bank loans/floating rate. That category (bank loan) has seemed like a "can't miss" trade since the real bottom in Tre…
Gundlach obviously knows bonds (albeit not corporate junk bonds where he is almost always bearish) but he certainly knows no more than you, me, and the man in the moon when it comes to stocks.
Here's his call in early March where he said stocks had…
Speaking of the pathetic state of journalism, you might think about (but largely avoid reading) the current U.S. News article, "This book obliterates active management." The book is another of Larry Swedroe's shots at active management; smart guy, …
