Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
You DO know these guys have no more clue than you, me, or the man in the moon? As for the so called experts, one of the very best, if not best sentiment indicators out there is the venerable Bank of America sell side indicator (formerly the Merrill…
BI? BL? (Bank loans?) @Junkster: What do you make of THIS one? http://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/pffrx/quote.html
Crash I am a momentum type trader. In the short run trends tend to persist and even more so with bond funds. That is why I fa…
You yourself stated ""sure thing" trades always make me leery", you reduced your allocation from 100% to 80%. Of course, this does not mean your bearish, I presume just concerned.
This was merely to get some exposure to corporate junk. I am very b…
@TSP_Transfer: DBLTX. Yes. I was staying away because it's already crowded. But you may have just changed my mind! Thanks.
A pretty woeful three months when rates were rising. Maybe if rates are lower going forward this would be a good selection.
Why do many seem so be down on BL funds?
I would sure like to know the whos that are so down on bank loans. Even before the election that category has been the most overloved out there and the most recommended for a rising rate scenario. Rates …
Through Friday over the past three months Morningstar's 16 taxable bond fund categories show 12 with negative returns. Two have small positive returns under 0.75% The two real winners have been bank loans at 2.20% and high yield corporates at 2.15…
If every investment reporter/writer posted many or all of their own pieces here, as this person is doing, this board would be nothing but a free forum for said writers to promote themselves and the publications they write for. I'm for a ban on such …
2 questions for Junkster if you don't mind.
BXFYX looks to be a pretty small fund (100mil). Do you worry about when you exit, you will get hammered with your exit price since it sounds like you have a fair amount invested?
Seems like you are i…
Their managed futures fund (QMHIX/QMHRX) is heavily touted by a Pied Piper over on the Bogleheads board. YUCK! Down over 13% YTD!! Maybe some don't mind underperforming for 3,4, or 5 years as the article points out, but not my idea of accumulati…
December and January are the best months seasonally for high yield junk bonds. They have survived the rise in Treasuries as have bank loans/floating rate. That category (bank loan) has seemed like a "can't miss" trade since the real bottom in Tre…
Gundlach obviously knows bonds (albeit not corporate junk bonds where he is almost always bearish) but he certainly knows no more than you, me, and the man in the moon when it comes to stocks.
Here's his call in early March where he said stocks had…
Speaking of the pathetic state of journalism, you might think about (but largely avoid reading) the current U.S. News article, "This book obliterates active management." The book is another of Larry Swedroe's shots at active management; smart guy, …
Don't put all your eggs in one basket !
Derf
Been doing just that since 1985. I never was much for conventional wisdom.
Edit: The above is incorrect. Been doing that since 1966. Just it took me …
Floating rate funds move almost lock-step with high yield corporates albeit without the volatility (2008 was an exception) They seem now like a no brainer, can't miss, sure thing trade with among other things the Fed expected to raise rates next mo…
Here's a link to a topic I discussed earlier this morning about the sudden love affair with floating rate funds being a panacea for rising rates
http://blogs.barrons.com/incomeinvesting/2016/11/16/why-floating-rate-loans-may-not-rise-in-price-when-…
It's a bit distressing to see all the sudden enthusiasm here, there, and everywhere with floating rate/bank loan funds. The last thing I want to see is that category becoming "groupthink" and the "logical" place to go. In the real world we have see…
Hum?
Don't mean to rub it in. But us who has some PRPFX in our holdings are wondering what all the excitement is about?
Just another dull day ... up a modest 0.44%
:)
Yes, PRPFX has certainly come to life this year with impressive double digit ga…
It's pretty wild, so I had to doublecheck this on the Powershares site after seeing it on M*: PCY (US$) and LEMB (local currency) both fell in price today ~ 2x the drop in the IIV, resulting in very wide discounts, for etf's.
Here's PCY, discount …
y0ungmoney.blogspot.com/2014/11/kill-your-investing-gurus-jim-rogers.html
In the long run, Jim Rogers has been about as wrong as any guru out there on just about every asset class under the sun. Reminds me of the ex-resident stock picker on this fo…
I believe this is @Junkster's discretionary fund for hiking shoes and peanut butter sandwiches.
Stay fully invested, have stops in place and live frugally...works for me.
You pretty much nailed it! Love when those monthly dividends are posted to…
Ha-Ha! There is a reason it's $66 (and not 0) and that's a result of an issue I once had with an exchange between the same fund family and the need to have $66 in my cash balance.
All in here, 50/50; equity/bonds ($257 in cash account). As the markets remain perverted by central bank policy(s), earnings adjusted by accounting methods and cranial/rectal inversion in the area of political warfare and those who will retain their…
Meanwhile back in the real world several categories of bond funds have double digit gains in 2016. Flight occurs way after the fact and prices have already been in a pronounced downtrend. That is what occurred with the Third Avenue High Yield fund…
If the performance of the past three months (a period of rising rates and falling Treasuries and munis) is any preview, the places to be are high yield corporates and bank loan/floating rate funds. I hope rates continue to rise and surprise on the …
I can't predict or forecast anymore than the man in the moon. While "hope" won't get you anywhere in the markets, I have been "hoping" (for more reasons than one) that rates rise and that a generational low in rates is already in place. Seems ever…
If you check out the taxable bond categories vs the municipal bond categories the munis are really lagging in 2016 (even when you factor in the tax advantage for the munis) Crowded trade?
http://news.morningstar.com/fund-category-returns/
well, fidelity said no, it's against federal regs to give bonuses after the move is complete.
here's the note i got from f:
Thank you for following up with us regarding our promotional offers. I am happy to further assist you with this informat…
Maybe we should add the adage "When you have won the game, stop playing" Meaning CDs and money market funds only. Are there not older investors who have accumulated enough of a nest egg that there is no longer a need to take risk.
hmmm. well, i just transfered well over 250k but far less than 1 mil to fidelity by closing out my wellstrade account and i did not to think of asking for a bonus. crap. think i should ask for one retroactively?
in the alternate, i have a big pi…
@Junkster - can you tell me how Fidelity is providing $3,750 to your account? I'm currently in the process of transferring a rollover IRA to them and transferring a taxable account to them as well.
I know there offer commission free trades (but no …
I have been at Scottrade since around 2003/4. I thought they were top notch and especially my local branch manager. But was on the line today with various reps from Fidelity. I will be transferring my IRA Monday and then later my taxable. It's no…
Bonds, the most crowded trade since...... seems to be unraveling. I would think today's action scares the Fed into not going the week after next but who knows. I would love a rising rate scenario making CDs and money market more competitive. Remain…
SCMFX What is there to like about a fund that has significantly underperformed its category YTD, 1 Yr, 3 YR, and 5 Yr ?? SEEDX isn't much better. One common refrain (excuse) when investors hold underperforming funds is it's for diversification …
Not exactly an answer to your question but "lower returns going forward" seems to be the latest buzz phrase. Actually has been around many years and popularized by the likes of Jeremy Grantham long ago and others (especially value managers) Last …
This is especially true in a very slow, careful increase in rates as we are likely to have. I hope you are right as bank loan funds may be the place to be. And would love to see a corresponding rise in CD yields. Albeit I have been hearing this r…
ETNMX has a really interesting mix of assets. Thanks for the tip, TSP, gonna look into that one. It's slightly outdone NWQAX.LW, which is pretty good.
No short term redemption fee and NTF at Scottrade. Looks good! But then 2016 is turning out to b…
The thirst for yield continues unabated. Today is something like the 11th day this month junk bonds have hit all time highs. About 2 weeks ago for the first time in 18 months junk bonds began ignoring oil. Curious if that will continue if oil bre…
"This time it's different".
Typically when this trope appears it refers to a situation in some particular sector of finance which is suspected of being in the "bubble" mode. For example, internet/tech, housing, etc. The "this time" characterization…
But I remain puzzled by the emphasis that you and others place on the fact that stock dividends fell below long term treasuries in 1957. Total annual returns are the pertinent measure of any investment’s anticipated value.
My only point was in refe…
