Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
I dont think the "abuse" that I have seen here even approaches the rancor and vitriol on other forums. Even posting with your real name does not stop people at the WSJ from awful comments. I have stopped reading any of the messages there
I think t…
Ditto me No politics, unless it has a direct impact on investing. People can discuss their ideas about the impact of politics on the markets etc but let us not discuss our personal political opinions
While I genuinely believe partisan politics have no role in investment discussions ( I once dropped a newsletter subscription after the editor went on a political rant) I think the potential instability in the markets by Trump's shenanigans warrants…
I marvel at how the market seems to ignore the potential chaos at the White House. Maybe that means that Trump really will not do anything.
But looking at all of the areas he could blow up with a few tweets, and how America's enemies must be gleef…
Including ETFs
TUR 12% VGHAX 9% ( and I was ready to sell it) SFGIX 7% VUG 7% VPCCX 7%
Bottom of Barrel
OTCRX - 3% SPCAX -0.5% VWITX 0.07 % FPINX 0.16 %
@00BY
GADVX is listed as "market neutral " by M* but it is really merger/arbitrage. I would not consider this cash like. The Max DD is 7% and correlation with SP500 between .6 and .79 for merger funds like this. To me "riskless" or "cash" assets …
While VUBFX and VUSFX (Vanguard's version of Ultra Short bonds) are only two years old, they have been a little less volitial than TRBUX. yield is about the same but expenses a bit lower..Pretty close to cash for safety
yes you remember correctly.
He is perhaps not as bad as Henry van der Eb of the Mathers fund who I don't think has owned a single share of stock sine 1974!
I lost a significant amount of money with Hussman when the marker turned down in 2008 ( y…
I can't remember how much both Barron's and WSJ cost, but unless your portfolio is only a few thousand dollars, the money is money well spent and beats paying an adviser 1%
Although of the two Barron's is a far better deal for most of us( $52 a y…
@davidrmoran Don't forget Elliot worked at Lloyd's before Faber and Faber so he certainly knew something of the time value of money... He also hung around a bit with Keynes in Bloomsbury although I am sure the real members of that "set" found him u…
I am 30% cash too.. and thinking I will go higher. Seth must be looking over my shoulder
Wish my wife and kids would pay me what he gets to run their accounts
How can you calculate the discount rate if
"Time present and time past
Are both perhaps present in time future
And time future contained in time past.
If all time is eternally present
All time is unredeemable."
I don't think I want poets managing…
Harvard is having problems attracting good in house talent to mange the money because the faculty and students go ballistic when they hear that someone who can deliver market beating returns will not work for less than 2 or 3 million a year. Add to …
I have been in and out of AF over the years, but usually when I was using a broker who pushed them. I never found them to be very helpful or much better than an index fund.
It is hard to imagine how any fund manger running Billions can do any bet…
Most people don't pay any attention to what they invest in through their 401k or even a broker. I tried for years to get my Austinite ex hippy sister to pay attention to the multiple large cap funds in her 401k... couldn't be bothered. My son believ…
I break my bond allocation down my my best estimate of the funds duration: LT 1.5, 1.5 to 3, 3 to 5 and over 5
It must be working because the YTD returns are 0.08, 0.22, 0.76, and 2.14.
This is just the bounce back after being oversold... Hard t…
I am so sorry to hear your have been sick, but hope you feel well enough to join us here again regularly, soon. Without you, the board has lost a lot of zip and vim and vigor !
Keep your spirits up!
In addition to having no alternatives in Annuities and some 401k, some of us have worked with brokers in the past who only have access to A or C shares. I have done the math many times, and old_skeet is correct... A shares make sense if you hold th…
I know this is mostly mutual funds, but I also read a couple of stock newsletters too, esp dividend oriented ones and pick up a small position when something sounds cheap or reasonable. I missed GM last month so bit on CVS rather than add to VIG or…
@Ted
I have tried to pay much more attention recently to dividend safety and dividend growth, using ETFs like SDY and VIG, and am willing to sacrifice yield to avoid surprises.
There are several excellent websites to look at. Barron's profiled a …
I have been looking at their funds. The Tactical all Asset and the Bond fund are rather transparent as Blumenthal publishes his allocations on line weekly. He has little or no info on the long short strategy, which would probably be the hardest to i…
Non, je ne regrette rien
Just remember the ultra right wing French legionaries sang Piaf as they marched out of their barracks, after trying to take over the government in Algiers
I agree. even when I have invested in stocks later found guilty of egregious security frauds ( ie Worldcom) my position is so small compared to the lead plaintiffs I rarely get more than a couple of bucks. The fine print is always enticing, as your…
It is hard to determine the possible changes in NAV of a bond fund, but laddering does give you some hope that the results of interest rate increases will be predictable... as long as the fund is not threatened with large redemptions.
If you buyin…
Where does he get his money ? 23,000,000 shares of MORN equals $1.7 Billion
While he surely got paid more earlier now he only make $100,000 as Chairman
Of course, this does not address fund families that died long ago does it?
Anybody remember Mathers Fund? Henry van der Eb was almost 100% cash in the 1990s writing lucidly why the market was wrong. He was eventually right but by that time the fun…
There are other views that are better elucidated.
I just finished reading James Cloonan ( head of AAII) book on "Level 3 investment" where he makes the case that there has only been one ( 1929) situation where the SP500 has not recovered from a bea…
Is anyone else worried about lots of selling to lock in gains after Jan first? Regardless of what the tax rates are, not paying taxes until 4/15/18 will drive a lot of people who have significant cap gains
Most of the ideas we have about which sec…
Generating 4% yield will take some risk, although if interest rates rise as treasuries will yield 3+% and it will be easier.. but that will be due to inflation so your target may move.
You need to consider the loss of principle risk you run reachi…
The Marketwatch piece is a little late. Goodx was profiled in Barrons in October
http://www.barrons.com/articles/a-top-fund-makes-the-value-case-for-verizon-1475905159
I too looked at it then but couldn't get past the M* analysis where a quick gl…
@Alban
The only time I have used American Funds in the last 30 years is with a broker, but I understood then that they were expensive. I NEVER did any better than I would have done in an index fund.
To combat the "passive revolution" they are maki…
There is a longer article on the same subject with more ideas from September
http://www.etf.com/sections/features-and-news/using-etfs-hedge-against-rising-rates?nopaging=1
It might be hard to overcome the spread on such thinly traded ETFs. Wouldn…
All of the above illustrates the dilemma of finding a way to wring income out of a sector ( Bonds) that is so overbought. Look what has happened to Munis in the last two weeks.. an entire year's income gone.
I had a large position in FFHRX in May…
These disasters usually just drip on and on, unless senior management takes immediate responsibility ( remember this scandal has been known to CA newspapers for three years) and accepts appropriately severe personal punishment.
Stumpf did none of th…
Sold some stocks - MO and real estate before the mini fall and am increasing my ALT position. HFXIX and MBXIX and COGIX. Looked hard at MBXIX as the track record of the original hedge fund looks very solid. It was converted to an open end fund ea…
