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davidrmoran
I myself see a big pullback coming in the next six months but I don’t know that I have ever been correct over 45 years. I will put a lot of money in if a 10% pullback comes. I expect you r being prudent depending on how old you are. The thing is, if you’re young, you might as well stick it out and not try to time. He said.
MP is not a true or usual LCG, more LCB (M*) or MC core (Lipper), and moreover has had a strong regional bias (upper Midwest companies). It is not all that high-rated as it once was, but if you are going to hold it, it's unlikely you will go wrong.
>> value-driven ... in a rather unusual way
>> so long as they were only "somewhat" overpriced as compared with their historical "exceedingly" overpriced.
very good
should propose to Lipper a new category, ULCV
M* has screwed up the categorizations of DSE_X, from the getgo, I think.
It algorithmically churns SP500, as CAPE-plus vehicle, so never ever SC. LCV is always reasonable, since valuation drives the algorithm.
You can always roll your own, 50-50 or 25-75 or whatever w/ PONAX and DSENX (or SCHD or CAPE or whatever) and call it a day; still a distant horizon at 50y.
@willmatt72
>> willing to give up some gains over the long term and sleep well at night.
Sure, if holding some bonds somehow for 10-15y gives better mental health than simply being in VT or VT plus, say, some US-oriented tweaks (SCHD etc), g…
Sorry to be dense or seem argumentative, but what rollercoaster ride with a horizon like that? Just buy and hold and don't watch. Yes to SCHD, always, or its competitors.
I would never turn to balanced unless sleep-at-night is a chief driver.
@willmatt72
>> wasn't comfortable with my equity exposure in certain sectors
So not dialing down but shifting to other equity areas?
Or selling equity holdings altogether and going to cash or bonds or RE?
It is the latter that I would sug…
Well, NYT Maureen Dowd in a love note today also lists just some of the serious shortcomings:
... he beat Michael Dukakis with the race-baiting Willie Horton campaign designed by Lee Atwater and Roger Ailes. ... sent his national security adviser,…
Oh, sure. I have just always noted that over those timespans you do about as well or better w/ any SP500 etf, or DODGX, or by rolling your own using other steadies like BRK.A, Costco, or one of my favorite oldies nobody knows about or covers, Barnes…
I have never regretted buying and holding Apple, and I always like BoA on dips. But I have been reading for 40y how JnJ is almost always a buy, a good buy, or better than that. Yet just graph its performance against any better equity fund or ETF.
@Ted, people corn or pig corn?
Meanwhile, worsening for others:
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/19/us/politics/farming-trump-trade-war.html
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DscxvhbV4AEQ1Ps.jpg:large
and, oops, its relationship to business behaviors and to economic vitality is beyond sketchy:
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/15/opinion/tax-cut-fail-trump.html
I found this disinterested equity orientation and review useful
https://piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/stock-market-correction-context-are-equities-cheap-or-expensive
and how the 'taxcut' is actually working:
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/12/business/economy/trumps-tax-cut-was-supposed-to-change-corporate-behavior-heres-what-happened.html
doubling down --- Ted, how are you faring?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-12/frozen-out-of-china-american-farmers-refuse-to-sell-their-soy
>> don't give me the standard bullshit line about how I should not be concerned about a single day's performance. PRWCX is my biggest holding. The rest of the Market zoomed up on Nov 1st. PRWCX was FLAT.
>> Um... WTF? I understand the f…
this is droll
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/trumponomics-101-blame-the-evil-and-ruinous-democrats/2018/10/30/e0858170-dc7c-11e8-b3f0-62607289efee_story.html
This seems the dumbest thing from Arends I have ever read, speaking of the next slump:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-simple-way-to-beat-a-bear-market-2018-10-30
there might be some tax fears, but my hunch, vague and only hunchy, is that anything that derails the current political course will result eventually in a degree of exuberation
A different, broader speculative take (PKrugman today):
This is NOT a stock market prediction -- my track record there ain't too good. But I would point out that recent market action -- the big swoops up and down based on not much -- reminds me of …
