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davidrmoran
I myself see a big pullback coming in the next six months but I don’t know that I have ever been correct over 45 years. I will put a lot of money in if a 10% pullback comes. I expect you r being prudent depending on how old you are. The thing is, if you’re young, you might as well stick it out and not try to time. He said.
No need to 'pay anything down', but investing to address current problems and fix things for a better future, quite aside from paying what we already have spent and owe, is always smart. Plus plugging tax dodges.
Socialist fiscal insanity is good, …
I first heard him as a child in the 1950s, and it came to help me understand thoughtless reactionary minds and their frights. Plus wannabe-droll delivery.
Enjoy reading his comments on MFO. Wondering if Ed ever posted comments in Discussions?
Hmm. It seems increasingly a little like elderly late-night AM talkshowspeak, out-there, doomish without specifics, yet also equivocal:
>> we are on the…
My definitions for market drawdowns - probably correspond to most people’s
0-5% diplet
5-10% dip
10-20% correction
>20% bear market
+/- a couple of decimals.
Who here would not bet half the house --- assuming economic and business variables s…
I appreciate the honesty of posters acknowledging losses as well as gains: you win some, you lose some.
Part of my point anyway was that over 5+ quarters I have had no losses from simply going with my gut. No repeatable or 'point-outable' skill for…
welcome
oh, more than once, in terms of bailing out of equities
(just too damn high)
all of the above are successes, obvs, but the largest was only perhaps a quarter of the our total egg
large enough for me
Below is some hasty / lazy work for me to show myself my actual practice since covid onset and I sold off nearly everything after return to breakeven summer '20 (as I was sure covid would be this bfd hit to all markets).
- All dip buying and selli…
Really like HNDL, the others meh except for HIPS which is a train wreck.
Man, what does this tell you? :
HNDL, which is a fund-of-funds, has a target distribution strategy that you often find in the closed-end fund universe.
... On the downsid…
Yes, tnx, 'similarly' was not the exact adverb.
In some senses the def of labile, esp under color of your recent analyses of weightings.
>> are not all that similar. Six weeks ago, the former had 45% of its holdings in the top ten, while t…
Yeah, jeez, as of 6w ago the mighty VONG is similarly >39% in:
AAPL Apple Inc 10.52
MSFT Microsoft Corp 9.87
AMZN Amazon.com Inc 6.64
FB Facebook Inc Class A 3.92
GOOGL Alphabet Inc Class A 3.19
GOOG Alphabet Inc Class C 3.05
TSLA Tesla Inc 2.45
Gosh, if only there were some explanation. Perhaps it is all luck? Ya think?
Hard to see a nonreactionary point here.
>> he had exhausted this tactic
? Has he not largely adhered to the fund name? (I do know that the share-price criterio…
@msf, in showing how wrong additive decomposition of factors is, are you also making a point about this conclusion?
>> Had I multiplied the components instead, the numbers would have been a few basis points lower, the order of importance the…
tnx, OJ, that was my point, sort of. Have winner faith, hang in.
Obvious, if not to some.
Let us propose that in the late 1980s or early 1990s we were persuaded, from press or elsewhere, that this guy Tillinghast was worth giving some money too.…
If you have a day or two to study, this actually is pretty interesting, as much as I have swum through and eaten thus far:
https://web.stanford.edu/~wfsharpe/RISMAT/RIAbook.pdf
Nothing like energetic human intellect at work over time.
Great stuff hindsight is, innit, especially when one knows about streams and horses. The significant foreign slug has always had an effect. The impulse behind my retrospect was the updated M* highest rankings of both fund and manager --- since covid…
@LB, I bet a nickel you are mistaken about her own personal portfolio. Someone with these sorts of convictions --- you have heard her speak? --- is a true believer through and through.
From 5mos ago:
https://www.barrons.com/articles/arks-cathie-w…
@LB,
>> consider the manager who instead of swinging for the fences tries to hit singles and doubles and play defense.
I do not begrudge CW her convictions and am not posting about her for not being what she transparently is not, per the …
4.6%, projects Moody's
https://www.barrons.com/articles/social-security-is-in-line-for-biggest-percentage-bump-for-inflation-in-40-years-51629489389
try this one if blocked
https://apple.news/AAiFOiTAxTNq7J8zKFlEm_Q
JD With an investment minimum of zero, you can start dollar-cost averaging into FSMEX tomorrow. In addition, since Fido has closed the fund once already, you may want to invest $100, or $1 to secure access to the fund.
Why not just do QQQ?
There is some explaining I would like to see, e.g. the drop in the 1980s, when they reached levels from a century earlier --- was that all population ... decline ?
yes, almost all coal, from what I read elsewhere
Sold all VONE and VONV at last peak, bought smaller amount of VONG today, also a little CAPE. Have augmented nut this year nontrivially doing high-low sell-buy, unusually. Such lasting bull strength.
I do.
https://www.aarp.org/work/social-security/info-05-2012/future-of-social-security-proposals.html
I am not clear what your second sentence means. Govs have headshaking inefficiencies, but many things are notably efficiently run (SS, MC, Darpa …
There is some explaining I would like to see, e.g. the drop in the 1980s, when they reached levels from a century earlier --- was that all population ... decline ?
