Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
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davidrmoran
I myself see a big pullback coming in the next six months but I don’t know that I have ever been correct over 45 years. I will put a lot of money in if a 10% pullback comes. I expect you r being prudent depending on how old you are. The thing is, if you’re young, you might as well stick it out and not try to time. He said.
Hardly. Another opinion is that is it an almost completely false, unsubstantiated, shoddy piece of journalism designed solely to alarm. Rekenthaler is not the only person to think so, but his takedown was early; you can google for others.
http://new…
>> Don’t look at past returns to gauge future performance
When will this hoary bromide be given a rest? Never, I suppose.
1) What good are past returns --- none? Useless? Seriously? You might as well say as much about the market as a whole, …
I mentioned the very handy AO_ choice of four blended ETFs cuz of what you listed in your response yesterday, that's all. They are single vehicles that have good allocations all by themselves. You can always use them as I have sometimes, core, and a…
Your present and future needs are so low and well-covered (but why plan on taking SS at 62 instead of later?), and you got scared out of a bunch of good funds, meaning we know something about your temperament as well as your projections. So why not …
Reply to @hawkmountain: A false, straw analogy. Totally so. I believe in fire extinguishers. I did not exactly say I had 'faith' in ML (they give a ton of money to anti-gov pols who vote against ML interests, among other things), but nothing whatsoe…
>> Diversification is not just about asset allocation, but with who, and also who's the custodian. Everyone is assumed guilty and will never be proven innocent.
Wow. I have hitherto always been impressed with the pleasantly low level of paran…
Reply to @Charles: I might suggest dropping the 20y column unless the team/manager has been in place for the period, which is v rare. (I mean, leave it but do not have an entry unless it's for Tillinghast or Heebner or Gabelli and the like.) I also …
Sorry to be dense, but where can one go to fully understand absence (seemingly new but not listed in drops) of funds (ICMBX, JABAX, PRBLX, GLRBX as noted, FPACX, SCHD, AOx group, etc.)? I do not expect you to do work for readers beyond this great an…
Doubters of Romick and his colleagues should ponder Tillinghast over his many decades (oh no, too big, how can he thrive and continue to find smaller and midsized companies, etc.?)
Reply to @MourningStars: I thank you for your gracious response and certainly share your hope. I guess I was partly responding to Darcey, who also had many substantive points of concurrence. Likewise Joe's chime-in. All good.
You can dislike Krugman all you like, a good way to avoid being substantive. I did not post anything about governance or idiot conflict or rightwingnuts, and do not disagree with many of the sentiments. But if GDP grows, perforce the percentages get…
Reply to @MourningStars:
>> ever intends to pay back so much as a dollar
It is probably best to avoid politics on this forum, and probably best not to respond, but this is an ignorant and profoundly damaging notion, that our national self-f…
Reply to @MikeM: Got it. That's what I find odd, to do such a comparison, when the 10k-growth graph tells one so much more via resets of the start point.
Reply to @msf: Oh, I get steadiness, sure, but did you look at the 10k-growth graphs, rather than the individual yearlies? I don't care so much about score and victory by period (I stay invested, don't jump in and out) as doing well in the game over…
This is to say that all of the intellectual firepower of the last few years (data-related, mining, aggregating, crunching, interpreting) is for naught. May well be, and it certainly satisfies those who are sure it is never ever different this time, …
Reply to @ron: I'm with you, rightly or wrongly. I have never sensed the modesty or introspection warranted. I sensed he was reading his own clips over those boom years --- quite like Miller. Not sure I could substantiate that shot. All during that …
So what's his point? I just read a dozen of these handwringing pieces, as written over the last few years. I guess it serves some purpose or other if it's action-spurring. Otherwise I don't get why he's writing, seriously.
An options fund, playing indexes, yes. Interesting to see how M* and Lipper differently parse the holdings (the latter says 83% other, 15% bonds, 2% cash :) ).
Reply to @Charles: Thanks for your honest explanation. I might suggest you hold things for three years min, hardly an original thought with me, but I don't think I can say I have never done the same. I am using ARLSX (along with ICMBX and JABAX, as …
Reply to @Charles:
1) You make your sell decisions by the quarter, or two quarters?
2) Aren't these all very different? Bond mix, international bond mix, cash-heavy, and finally being 'beaten' by a fund that is nearly 60% equities? I mean, how co…
Reply to @Charles: Naked shorting is illegal and always has been, but it also was fairly widely implemented in the past. Less possible now. A really corrupt manipulation of the market, and was so used in 2006-08 etc.
A thin and obvious article; surprised they ran it from this kid. Some funds beat an ETF. Costs matter. z-z-z-z. (Not called out: Danoff is just immensely competent, esp given the size of his maneuvers.)
Sorry to write cryptically. I did not mean 10m SMA for those two ETFs, I meant using them to implement the strategy, and my real question was where does one find online 10m SMA.
I just find it handy to think about using AOA and AOK strategically, …
Oh, sure, he's totally right, except it's all in the judgment and the choices. Many are now newly talking concentration (e.g., Benz in her personal accounts), or have been for years (Buffet, Heebner, Yacktmans, et alia). It's the standard and solid …
Reply to @Mark:
What he said.
>> he ran the fund in such a way that it was bound to happen.
Oh, come on. Have faith, or don't. But decide. I mean, people say the same about Heebner (CGMFX and CGMRX), even Soviero (FLVCX). I'm no longer in,…
I am sorry not to have seen this in real time, and must ask (surely I have missed it right in front of me), where does one find 10 SMA information online? Or do you compute it yourself? It should be simple to do this using AOA and AOK, as I can comm…
Reply to @catch22: Welcome. I am ever surprised these extremely handy things do not get more attention. I certainly recommend them regularly to family and friends, usually as a pair, since they hold up well against most active variously balanced fun…
Reply to @catch22: In Mass. anyway, Advantage plans (at least Tufts and BCBS) are doctor-limited, as you surmise, but you would very pressed to find any physician you had ever seen or would ever want to see who wasn't on the list. Fwiw and of course…
Reply to @AKAFlack: Of course it was a serious question: I was wondering why you had not talked about the great flexibility and drawdown discipline (often enforced by reality, of course) that retirees over the late 70s and into their 80s and 90s exh…
