Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Support MFO
Donate through PayPal
davidrmoran
I myself see a big pullback coming in the next six months but I don’t know that I have ever been correct over 45 years. I will put a lot of money in if a 10% pullback comes. I expect you r being prudent depending on how old you are. The thing is, if you’re young, you might as well stick it out and not try to time. He said.
Too conservative, or at least too many nonequity vehicles, and way way too many funds period. (Depending on balance percentages, you will be lucky overall to equal the performance of AOR.) I would put it all into YAFFX and SGIIX, 2:1, and call it a…
Reply to @AKAFlack: As someone who just retired a few months ago, forcibly, you can bet I understand sequence risk. Or say I do, and think I do. I look Murphy in the face every day, seldom knowing how to know what to do next. But you did not answer …
If they can buy and sell without commission, they could go 50-50 into AOK and AOA, and periodically sell whichever is higher. Or AOR and AOM ditto. No fuss, no muss.
>> They retire this year and the stock market drops
20% next year. What do …
>> HSGFX ... and PRPFX. ... Money flows in and money flows out - based largely on short-term performance.
or longer-term --- 3/5/6/7/8y is pretty brutal, a bit less so for Perm, given the market overall.
Reply to @msf: I too owned it back then (still do, though less) solely because of the name and because I knew Fidelity's reputation and performance. (I guess that sounds shallow. My father had owned a little Trend and Magellan in the 1970s, I believ…
Shorting is expensive, ditto fund of funds running and composition, and the two together even moreso. I don't recall anyone on this forum complained about RNCOX (cheaper fund of funds) when David S wrote it up.
Per the prospectus, ARLSX is "1.7% N…
Reply to @bee:
>> As you can see, BUFOX continues to have positive momentum compared to BUFBX. If things reverse I will often get out of the agressive position and continue monitoring it for reentry or look for other trending funds.
Not to s…
Just put more into YACKX/YAFFX (depending on which brokerage I can buy them in n/c). Also PRBLX. Less into OAKIX and GABSX. Timing not optimal, but is it ever?
The reason is that I am rebucketing, so to speak, into soon moneys, later, and much lat…
Reply to @mrc70: I know, as though mutual funds are tip stocks. I invested with Heebner for 21 years, going from 5k to 182k, and never bailing out no matter what I read or anyone said. Taught me a lesson. Not a fun ride always.
I forget just how mojo does it calcs, but I know I stopped referring to it when it left out of its lists Pinto (JABAX) and the ICMBX gang. Also the Jameses, but I guess they're not 'moderate.' Always compare with AOR, and since anyone interested in …
Reply to @ducrow:
From today's Jaffe column:
\\ The problem is, **countless studies** show that once an investor has four actively managed funds in an asset class, they have something called a “closet index fund,” where they are never likely to g…
Reply to @ducrow:
That too. You may be chasing too hard, I suggest. And you do own 9 such, by your account. Probably counterproductive.
I will see if I can find the statistical article about too many of a good thing. It may even have been a link…
Reply to @ducrow:
This guarantees you will match an index like VBINX **at best**. There is a good statistical article on this just this week, forget if it is Marketwatch, M*, or where. You will *never* outperform with 20 balanced funds, or even six…
I would not trust anything Bogle says about hidden Fidelity fees, but others will chime in on 401ks and fees in general. Rekenthaler at M* among many others thinks that the recent Frontline 'expose' was complete bunk (as did I, not claiming any orig…
Well, I suggest a look hard(er) at FPACX, JABAX, and ICMBX. I myself would prefer all of them. I owned some Weitz funds for the longest time back when, till I came to see that his judgment was not so solid.
Reply to @JoeNoEskimo:
found it:
Rekenthaler: … I’m suspicious of low-volatility funds because I remember something actually somewhat similar 20 years ago in the early 1990s. Utility funds and other low-volatility funds at the time had the best 1…
Reply to @JoeNoEskimo:
Ha, if only, meaning not as much downside protection as one would have thought and might hope. Anyone who piled into the new (or not so new) min-vol ETFs in March and April, and many did, has been dismayed by their drop and p…
Reply to @Charles:
>> delivered great absolute (and even risk adjusted long term) returns.
No question, and all credit, sure, okay, if you can stand the ride. But what I posted above, about Yacktman, Tillinghast, Soviero ..., is totally ea…
Superior over the long run? Only sort of. BB is an exciting manager, to put it mildly, but at every interval except 1y you got as good or better performance from YAFFX and FLPSX, with many fewer jolts. And if you're simply dying to rock 'n' roll, gi…
Reply to @MikeM: Roger all, and in fact for the last few years he has been on a tear and beating those others a little, and including MAPOX. Don't have an answer to your rhetorical question about bonds --- Romick has always held more cash than most,…
Reply to @Charles:
Don't mean to give you, or anyone, tasking I can do myself! :) Cooperative spirit seriously appreciated, though.
I do not mean to mount some argument against the excellent Romick, only that his approaches are not really what he…
Hold in cash for the nonce while you invest. Forget in other words about parking in BOND, MUNI, MINT, etc. If you are feeling more confident than not about the near-future market, you could hold in ARLSX, GLRBX, JABAX, or similar with good ulcer ind…
I myself don't see how FPACX is such a bleedin' winner compared with GLRBX, JABAX, ICMBX, and ARLSX, but maybe that's just me and the stick I have about Romick holding so much cash and overcharging for it and not clearly outperforming.
Anyway, re…
Reply to @Investor:
Not clear why you would conclude that I would take you, or the topic, personally. I didn't say that every holding hits the criterion, only that that is still the chief, not outdated, criterion. Of course Tillinghast uses broade…
I have analyzed most of these too, both recently and in the past, but I always come back to one of my longterm holdings, GABSX. I won't tout it necessarily specifically but I certainly would include it in your researches. I'm always pleased with it …
Oh yeah, this working editor asks, Can we get sitewide usage of 'drawdown' as one word, the way the financial world rightly does it, rather than two words? (Almost as bad as a construction abomination like 'Grown Ups'.)
Reply to @Charles:
Thanks much for your clear, thoughtful, comprehensive answer. I guess I myself do need a manager-length criterion; I mean, good on TRP, sure, for Prwcx and many other funds, but I think I would still rather give my moneys to (e.g…
Reply to @scott:
>> Are there any companies that you love?
Sure, CVS, Costco, and one nobody knows about, Barnes Group (B). Add Brk.b if you want fundlike 'balance'. That should do you for a few more decades.
I must be missing something and must study these column criteria and the background thoroughly more deeply, as this certainly sounds and self-bruits to be a promising analytic methodology. But is there really no screen for manager start date and lon…
>> Any outsized performance is now likely luck and unlikely to persist.
I guess I should watch his video, but this last sentence may show fundamental misunderstanding. 'Unlikely to persist' is altogether different from luck, depending how you…
Reply to @Investor:
Was not defending the share price practice or the definition, am not ignorant of how pricing points are achieved, just pointing it out, since you stated all-cap. I do some KII writing as a freelancer, so am aware of common usag…
>> Its portfolio is all cap
Well, within his share-price constraints.
And the guy is only 55 or so. Long may he and it prosper. It just did a new portfolio total and noticed that it's also my largest $ holding.
M* does a lot that is kinda…
Huh and hmm. M* lists purchasability at all the usual places, but maybe it costs a fee -- ? Tillinghast has been just an amazing investor for a long time and with large moneys. And below-average risk. One of the many very nice things about Flpsx is …
Heather, I would suggest looking hard at some that have not been mentioned, which I hold, which generally have the lower risk and higher capture you seek. Not to expand your choices :) . I agree getting holdings under 10 would be a goal.
But I als…
Just sort of retired and am thoughtfully (I hope) repositioning/rebucketing. Adding to Jabax, Icmbx (thanks, MFO), Glrbx; interesting to watch these smart balancers (McGregor too) drift toward creating more 75/25 funds instead of their norm. Frettin…
