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davidrmoran
I myself see a big pullback coming in the next six months but I don’t know that I have ever been correct over 45 years. I will put a lot of money in if a 10% pullback comes. I expect you r being prudent depending on how old you are. The thing is, if you’re young, you might as well stick it out and not try to time. He said.
See
http://www.examiner.com/article/a-pie-chart-every-american-should-get-to-know-as-republicans-cut-spending
~ 2/3 of spending is SS, DoD, Medicare/-aid, and debt interest flowing back to us MFO bondy types :). DoE is a bit over 1%, e.g. I'm sure…
What good funds have shorter holding periods? I do not follow this criterion as I do not wish to bail based on 1-2 mos' performance. (Who does?) Which funds do you favor that permit this and also are good performers ?
In a side discussion of a part…
gah, what is this about? Glancy was there for 2.5 years! 2000-03.
Why post this crap? This is like the second or third time on MFO that this factoid has been posted. Did Glancy do something to you two guys??
I am of course talking about Thomas So…
Ha, like meeting some HBS kid at a party and handing him a check for his instincts. I hope it succeeds wildly. Anyone looking into it might also want to check out the much more experienced Soviero and FLVCX.
>> Small caps are wildly overvalued and will likely lead the next decline. I would never advise initiating or adding to SC exposure here.
I have been reading this every six months or so for the last several years. Just graphed PENNX, FSCRX, W…
Derf, PRWCX is v good, yes, but the manager was not there for the first 2y of the past decade. Sounds minor, but if you measure his performance against others since summer 06, that is 8y, PRWCX is equaled by JABAX and significantly beaten by ICMBX w…
It was not his squandering / failure to promote that stymied it! Not to get into politics and not to defend the guy kneejerk. But LBJ and GHWB themselves could not do successful promotions of any sort with this crowd of oppositional fanatics.
Was trying but failing to be polite, since the shortcomings of GO listings (and this is yet another fine example) have been partly hashed out here recently. And did you study the US News lists you cited? Whoa, puzzling in another, seemingly inexplic…
Duc, in addition or instead, look into FPACX, BUFBX, ICMBX, and JABAX and see what you think. Check performance 2007-2011: all of them outperform VWELX and PRWCX handily and with much better dip performance and recovery.
For simplicity, also look …
>> pay cash for all my medical ... expenses.
You have zero insurance? I suggest you indeed check out Ocare, fear and assumptions apart. I sure hope you stay insanely healthy and are not getting older by the day.
>> 35 years is a long enough time to start to be statistically significant
'start to be' --- now there's a stats assertion you don't read every day.
Speaking of timespans, GPGOX and BRSIX do look interesting, and outperform WEMMX recently (…
Another fine Arends article, and yet another inadvertent plug for active management. I hope (doubtless deluded) that the fact that his universe size is the same as PRBLX and YAFFX/YACKX is other than coincidence :) .
>> But if they do weight to SCV, they should be aware they are accepting increased risk with no guarantee of increased returns.
I do love theoretical argument, especially by academics, but hey, I have an idea instead:
Go to M* 10k growth an…
Oh, I know, one of the drawbacks of the article (and a bit with M*'s hairsplitting classifications). One reason I always dig deeper. I always look at the blend categories whenever I am analyzing value behaviors and records.
Look at it this way. Gra…
VHCOX sure is a winner, the others not so much when you look at the bumpiness of the ride. Unmentioned (not notionally growth??): FLPSX outpaces all of them, and FAIRX more (and more roughly; also FLVCX, talking about a ride).
Talk about can't win for losin' or whatever the phrase is. A multisector bond fund (close to the best for quite some time) does just what it's supposed to do, and since summer 07 matches / marginally outperforms FSICX and DODIX while doing so notice…
Retired for a year or so, we have had maybe 5-7% in small caps. I recently decided to sell my favorite nominal SC fund GABSX because FLPSX dupes its behavior so closely and is full of SC holdings. I may switch to a position in WEMMX in addition, to …
I want to add to my existing retirement position but am tempted to pay Fido $50 and put it into SGOIX instead (I also have an existing position), which is steadier, although its mgrs have been there only 7 years. Thoughts welcome.
What a prize idiot piece of equivocal writing. Where is Hulbert when you need him? GMO feels the same way, maybe, probably, sort of, but without the handwringing and the fancy prose.
\\ investors should not allow their guards to come completely do…
Dead link so far as I can tell
Agree about having faith in a guy like that. We have an awful lot of money (for me) with him and his boy.
Don't know where andrei concludes the record is mostly due the last 3y. Nonsense, and easy to check. For exam…
>> [[DG]] diversified asset allocation offered little or no protection against the types of extraordinary losses my portfolio suffered via the tech bubble, 911 or the real estate financial crisis.
Huh? How do you figure? When I chart, say, …
>> Probably won't change the GO definition,
Well, not necessary, then. If it were my Owl award project, I would try to think more deeply on precisely what --- numerically --- would better take into account FPACX and PRBLX (say) superior prote…
Not to badger, but can you explain the Romick / Buffalo discrepancy (see the last 7y continuous) in terms of Martin? It seems inexplicable that one, worse dip and worse recovery and worse performance since, is a Great Owl when the other, lesser dip,…
>> I think you are suggesting that you want something future looking, kind of like the M* metal system? Ha!
Of course not. I am interested chiefly in downside protection.
>> One big reason we gravitated toward the MFO ratings methodol…
Roger, understood; am using Miraculous Multisearch now, which is much more useful.
I would still urge tweak of GO criteria such that no one could write things like this:
"SMVLX is a much younger fund [[hence not really an owl?]]. It gets GO statu…
I don't hold most of these, actually. But if I did, any congrats on my savviness would be the result of my having studied sources other than GO, right?
I go to GO to see what's what, since you undertake such vast labors. But it's harder to fathom …
>> step 1 Do nothing until the $+P 500 drops 30% from its most recent high
How many buying opps does this represent? I am having trouble reading the history.
What AJ said. GO clearly misses too much that is genuinely important. I have long thought this. If I were some prudent value-oriented downside-protection-seeking active investor who, having studied many other mfund sites including even CU, and thus …
Very interesting graphic about one's neighbors, especially for a buckeye xplanted to Mass. Would be nice to see a weighted version wrt CoL: a million here ain't the same as a million in southern Ohio.
>> Davis: "I was a little spooked when a Facebook executive, early on, announced that 'our goal is to fully monetize the trust that you have in your friends.' That struck me as creepy and I hope they never said that in public again."
Man, how…
You're welcome. I sure concur in your take, but was pleasantly surprised at how much of what he had to say is now incorped into the best mainstream thinking, here and elsewhere.
M* is all I use, growth of 10k, enter any dates you want. May not have the granularity you desire; I use the free login. I think Lipper via Marketwatch does what you describe, though with no time granularity.
