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davidrmoran
I myself see a big pullback coming in the next six months but I don’t know that I have ever been correct over 45 years. I will put a lot of money in if a 10% pullback comes. I expect you r being prudent depending on how old you are. The thing is, if you’re young, you might as well stick it out and not try to time. He said.
Vert,
Your alternative of 'nonskeptically' is a false dichotomy. Sorry to have reacted and posted as I did to your overstatement; it was not important. But many of us are plenty skeptical; what you wrote simply seemed to me to be vastly overstated w…
>> I devoutly believe, that all statistical arguments should be treated skeptically.
Vert,
To what point? I might bet you do not believe this yourself about, say, vaccination, winning athletes, or climate change. Also, what's the alternative …
I think cman explained himself quite adequately in the paragraphs starting with
>> One thing that caught my eye immediately
and his calls elsewhere for careful sample selection and delimiting and caveating and common sense. It is all well a…
Average the results over time and you will most probably begin to see they cancel out one another's quirks, pluses, etc. Diworsification of quirks. Sez me anyway. But you obviously give thought to all of this and do homework.
I need a macro key for 'everything cman said'.
Press, you have way too many funds and are doing expensive indexing, or coming close.
MM, correct: RGHVX is not pure. Note that it's ~16% SC, compared with, oh, I dunno, 0% for Yackts, 4% for PRBLX, a…
Longer-term is what interests me, with downside protection and crisis management and positioning. I mean, why else be in a balanced fund? Granted, PRWCX did better than DODBX. But it took them ~2y or a little less from Aug 08 to get and stay whole (…
>> PRWCX better returns
Hardly.
Romick and a few others did exactly what you pay for in 08-09; PRWCX slumped in the way that makes some investors bail. Check the data from spring 08 on.
Interesting in this forum how little love ICMBX and…
>> I would never pay a fund manager 1.14% ER to hold 46 cents of every dollar I invested in cash.
I read an interview ~>15y ago with a money manager who said exactly the same thing wrt her clients. It was at that point I put a lot of money…
Solid methods; too bad the fund is not much available to such as us. His fund did a hair better than FSCRX for 2012, and more than that compared with GABSX. Good stuff. Hard to find performance info, seemed to me.
>> manager who has soundly beaten the market using a quant strategy,
Uh. BOGLX looks like a small-cap, so no wonder it has beaten SP500. It is a v good performer more recently, yes, since you can exclude its huge drop 08-09.
I mean, compa…
Well. 5y sure is superior, 10y nothing to rave about if you compare with other v v good funds (FLPSX, PRBLX, YACKX). Note that 5y is sooo superior because their 09 dip is so horrific and the bounceback so long, 4y, unlike the others mentioned. In ot…
>> Never hold a losing position- aka discarding bad luck before it becomes worse luck. On winning positions always use a trailing stop from highs
So you do this with mutual funds, which have min holding periods?
Jeez louise, it all, all depends on how you define relatively rare and rarity.
Go plot DODBX or CENSX or VWELX or even something mediocre like FFIDX over, say, my investing lifetime, from the mid-1960s.
Look at how long (short) the bear markets …
Merriman is adamant about not thinking of SS this way --- see http://paulmerriman.com/social-security-asset/ --- but he then points that SS can and should affect how you think of the rest of your portfolio, how it should therefore be allocated/balan…
Okay, it was the bottom of this, and from December, not only a few months ago; apologies for chron error:
http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/33099/#Comment_33099
You concluded by wondering if my query was not like that of…
You know, huffiness, smily or no, need not always be part of your cold-logic / contrary persona. Discourtesy indeed, to someone who simply has a memory for your interesting work. Sure, I will see if I can find the exact exchange and quote. I assumed…
>> [cman] Just a simple diversified allocation into both bond and equity asset classes rather than try to guess or predict macro economic conditions or some other indicators. Don't need anything fancy.
A month or three ago I believe I propos…
Thanks. It does track FLPSX closely too.
>> The downside protection is evident but nothing to get excited about.
ytd (Feb dip comparisons) shows what appears to be nontrivially superior performance, not that anyone should decisively go wit…
Rjb, you really might want to look into Soviero's work, since you know what you are doing, or think you do :). Quite a ride but not quite as lumpy as these two guys.
An investment friend of mine in Boston who would know (quite a mucka, with a big f…
Anyone who likes this kind of strongly opinionated and focused play should, I'd suggest, take a position in CGMFX, and FLVCX too, though Soviero does diversify significantly compared with Berk and Heebner.
Wild. The only such article in history to indicate preference for Heebner over the Parnassus guys. I like both, but this must've been number-crunched and written by Heebner's nephew or something. And the omission of FLVCX sure is odd given what all …
You could always include your questions with your answers to their questions for a prospective adviser relationship manager :) :
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/pdf/HSA_AdvRelMgrPreInt.pdf
E.g.,
1) Why does each of the Hussman Funds have the word "St…
