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davidrmoran
I myself see a big pullback coming in the next six months but I don’t know that I have ever been correct over 45 years. I will put a lot of money in if a 10% pullback comes. I expect you r being prudent depending on how old you are. The thing is, if you’re young, you might as well stick it out and not try to time. He said.
OJ, thanks; missed that. If you pay a whopping load you can get in for the usual small amount. And then your results will be much worse than FLPSX. Oh, wait, it's also closed. It also has lagged its Russell MCV index for 1/5/10y, huh? Guess I be sti…
Of the value-oriented ones, it's interesting how very much better FLPSX does than HWMIX if you start in the summer of 2007, which is what I always advise. By the same token, wow, that JPM FLMVX sure looks like a winner and manager Simon one of those…
Hmm. Never heard of such a thing in 35 years of investing, at least in Mass., and my in-laws neither, in Conn. $3k on $100k? Maybe we're spoiled by Fido, but even when I was wrapped with PW, old ML, and Bear-Stearns, long ago, that was not the case…
I too am intrigued and may increase foreign REIT holdings (e.g.). And whew, I did backtest for my longterm FLPSX. YACKX, PRBLX, and GABSX since end 1997 and did see that they're extremely close or actually significantly exceed (FLPSX). At 67 though …
>> name-calling, offensive posts.
Have not seen much of that here at all, really. Have there been? Maybe I need to read more postings, rather than only the ones that interest me.
Hmm. What's the appeal --- supposedly reduced risk? Its 08-09 slump is much worse than, say, PKW, VOO, presumably SCHD, PRBLX, and GABEX. And its $10k gain over the last 3-4-5y is like only a third to a half of theirs! Not even taking taxes on the y…
Most of this has always seemed, as generalizations, fatuous beyond words. I have never got it, really, over decades. Don't lose money x 2. Seriously? That would mean don't invest, and everyone who loves to pontificate it does not really believe it o…
I would suggest leaving things alone. Countermeasures other than peer pressure often create more problems than they solve, in my experience, and of course this forum is the height of civility compared with many. The roughest comments I think I recal…
You won't go wrong with either, and of course you can get the other's penchant post-questionnaire (which is kinda false dichotomy in many spots, btw) with either outfit too --- meaning you can get cheapo indexing with Fido and good active management…
Sorry; my bad for wrong period terminology/characterization. I bought a lot 4/13 and 5/13 and am underwater ~2% and ~1% on those purchases. Must've been a high back then, sort of. Until the recent runup I was under by quite a bit more than that. All…
Vert,
Your alternative of 'nonskeptically' is a false dichotomy. Sorry to have reacted and posted as I did to your overstatement; it was not important. But many of us are plenty skeptical; what you wrote simply seemed to me to be vastly overstated w…
>> I devoutly believe, that all statistical arguments should be treated skeptically.
Vert,
To what point? I might bet you do not believe this yourself about, say, vaccination, winning athletes, or climate change. Also, what's the alternative …
I think cman explained himself quite adequately in the paragraphs starting with
>> One thing that caught my eye immediately
and his calls elsewhere for careful sample selection and delimiting and caveating and common sense. It is all well a…
Average the results over time and you will most probably begin to see they cancel out one another's quirks, pluses, etc. Diworsification of quirks. Sez me anyway. But you obviously give thought to all of this and do homework.
I need a macro key for 'everything cman said'.
Press, you have way too many funds and are doing expensive indexing, or coming close.
MM, correct: RGHVX is not pure. Note that it's ~16% SC, compared with, oh, I dunno, 0% for Yackts, 4% for PRBLX, a…
Longer-term is what interests me, with downside protection and crisis management and positioning. I mean, why else be in a balanced fund? Granted, PRWCX did better than DODBX. But it took them ~2y or a little less from Aug 08 to get and stay whole (…
>> PRWCX better returns
Hardly.
Romick and a few others did exactly what you pay for in 08-09; PRWCX slumped in the way that makes some investors bail. Check the data from spring 08 on.
Interesting in this forum how little love ICMBX and…
>> I would never pay a fund manager 1.14% ER to hold 46 cents of every dollar I invested in cash.
I read an interview ~>15y ago with a money manager who said exactly the same thing wrt her clients. It was at that point I put a lot of money…
Solid methods; too bad the fund is not much available to such as us. His fund did a hair better than FSCRX for 2012, and more than that compared with GABSX. Good stuff. Hard to find performance info, seemed to me.
>> manager who has soundly beaten the market using a quant strategy,
Uh. BOGLX looks like a small-cap, so no wonder it has beaten SP500. It is a v good performer more recently, yes, since you can exclude its huge drop 08-09.
I mean, compa…
Well. 5y sure is superior, 10y nothing to rave about if you compare with other v v good funds (FLPSX, PRBLX, YACKX). Note that 5y is sooo superior because their 09 dip is so horrific and the bounceback so long, 4y, unlike the others mentioned. In ot…
>> Never hold a losing position- aka discarding bad luck before it becomes worse luck. On winning positions always use a trailing stop from highs
So you do this with mutual funds, which have min holding periods?
Jeez louise, it all, all depends on how you define relatively rare and rarity.
Go plot DODBX or CENSX or VWELX or even something mediocre like FFIDX over, say, my investing lifetime, from the mid-1960s.
Look at how long (short) the bear markets …
