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davidrmoran
I myself see a big pullback coming in the next six months but I don’t know that I have ever been correct over 45 years. I will put a lot of money in if a 10% pullback comes. I expect you r being prudent depending on how old you are. The thing is, if you’re young, you might as well stick it out and not try to time. He said.
More errors on my part: but what happened was in spring of 1992 I put 5k in CGM Mutual Fund, averted my eyes, and just after Labor Day 1997 moved it all (it had more than doubled) to CGMFX, averting my eyes further until early spring 2011, when fear…
Of course. As I said, am trying to trace the exact history. I did not initially invest with CGM/Heebner in 1997; I said 'decades.' May have proper history presently, not sure.
No, no additional moneys, but I was wondering last night if I had my damn math memory right. I have to check when I went in, because it may have been before CGM was founded (Loomis prior), in case you are looking at the M* graph. And I was in LOMMX …
Avert your eyes. That's how (the only way) I turned $5k with this fund manager into >$65k over two decades. And I bailed a couple years ago only cuz I was (forcibly) entering retirement. Would it had been $50k waay back when. But then I would hav…
Fascinating. For two years, at least, maybe meaning not much, maybe a lot, it is equaled by DODIX, is outdone by FSICX, and trounced by PONDX and PDI (perhaps not fair comparisons, I guess). So what's the big deal here?
do not follow some newsletter
'get creamed'? do you care? does it matter?
if you don't need to touch it for many years, put it all now into SCHD, PKW, FSCRX, FLVCX, and some global thing you like, say VEU. 15/15/25/15/30. If that feels worrisome,…
Right, shoulda gone there, thanks; just more used to googling quickly and also to using M*. Concur in your take about manager abilities. I have recently put quite a bit nearterm moneys (quite a bit for me, that is) into PDI in addition, and those ma…
http://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/multisector-bond/pimco-income-fund/pondx/holdings
All of these data, M* and others, come from outside sources, I bet; I do not think anyone crawls through Pimco filings, but even then. Cayman stuff is almo…
What a worthless article even by summer M* standards. And as commenters point out also factually misleading. Finally and worst of all this splendid fund and practically unsurpassed manager now get 3* rating.
Huh? You saw that it changed managers in summer 06, right?
Since then it has outperformed, with notably less 08-09 dip, FAIRX, FLVCX, CGMFX, WVALX, FLPSX (speaking of MC space), DODGX, matched PRBLX, but outdone by YAFFX, to name a few.
Wish I h…
Good Lord. Look at these over their since-inception lifetime. Yes, I know managers have changed. But with Fido, sometimes it's the thought that counts.
The chief takeaway however is the absence of FLVCX. You want solid Fido performance with a soli…
Since you are thinking about capital preservation, and maybe PRPFX has a bright short-term future (as you suggest), sure, and maybe even longterm, I nonetheless suggest that you graph its last year against GLRBX, PONDX, and, oh, AOM. Looks okay, not…
Dear Lord, what bunk. I suggest anyone looking at these graph how they did as far back as they go (many are young), and for sure doublecheck manager tenure (many are recent starts). Incredible this gets published by MW with that hed.
/// There are …
Guido (don't reach first; or do you hear that all the time?) ---
>> as a young man I went to reading Bogle and he has influenced my decisionmaking
Oh, me too. I am not smart, really, about these things, and have lacked discipline at times.…
This is extremely interesting to me since Shiller CAPE has become such a meme:
>> If you avoided equities while they were above their historical CAPE measurement, you just missed 24 years of equity gains.
Joe,
>> “If It Works Don't Screw With It!”
My point was partly to do this even if it does not work or is not working, or seems not to be, in the moment, or the short term.
In other words, don't screw with it period, and have faith still, i…
>> “If you want to become less stupid at investing, one of the best things to do is surround yourself with people who disagree with you….”.
Well, jeez, within limits. See below.
>> goal to diminish investment innumeracy, especially in…
I see VT mentioned a fair amount, and it's great. Same thinking when I recommend the four AO_ ETFs, one-stop shopping for a great set of blends. (AOK, AOM, AOR, and especially AOA.) Misnamed to an extent, which must be part of the problem, and talk …
Thanks much, all. I cannot go all in (or even half in with RGHVX) with something with a track record going back only to last fall. But these postings and queries have been thought-provoking.
No one says it works all the time or is foolproof. Like investing, ymmv.
As for history tracking, oh yeah, no frankly to it, it is their business, what you do at work. Come on.
Well, try Firefox.
Each of the big three Win browsers offers a clean launch without cookies or memory; if you cannot grok it on your own, just google or try this: Chrome = Ctrl + shift + N, FF = the same only + P, IE = File, New Session.
>> (Next time you tell me something, make it news!)
? missing the point?
Nothing I posted was news in the slightest except to those who think balancing the budget is more important than anything. That's all. I drive in Mass. too. Truly awful…
However, and not to prolong what is close but not yet turned into political pissing, only people who do not understand these things would want to 'balance the US budget', or even attempt same. *All that matters is debt as percentage of GDP.* All. Gr…
Unless there's a transaction fee, as at Fido. Over time of course it's worth it to pay the $50 xaction fee because the ER is much lower, same as with YACKX vs YAFFX.
exp --- gah, I quail when asked for advice, since I mooch here so much and lack confidence financially despite having done okay over the decades (with huge exceptions).
Anyway, I say yes, absolutely, as I have done, because DSENX since last fall h…
>> many haven't had the stomach for it.
The very definition, as you and M* note, for why you buy and stick with a manager. Or else don't buy! My children have held FLCVX for some time, and I did, but now being retired head toward other fund…
jlev, just these:
http://www.doubleline.com/shiller-enhanced-cape-overview.php
http://www.doublelinefunds.com/pdf/DSEEX_Fact_Sheet.pdf
http://www.doublelinefunds.com/pdf/DSEEX_q114_letter.pdf
Thanks much for causing me to go study the PLUS series;…
Chart its performance against anything since its inception --- the outperformance and the lack of increased volatility, comparatively, are what intrigue me. Don't know other 'funds of this format', guess I should look into Pimco's. Pls post when you…
Thanks much. A good comparison, which I will keep in mind. I just charted those two plus FLPSX, a core holding of mine, from Sept 08 to Dec 11, and actually the 08-09 dip hedging and recovery are superior, although not as much as one might hope, yes…
Joe, point taken, but given their unusual approaches, under what rough-water circumstance would they do worst than protective equity funds? Looking for some analytic thinking about them like, or in addition to, what DS already posted.
