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davidrmoran
I myself see a big pullback coming in the next six months but I don’t know that I have ever been correct over 45 years. I will put a lot of money in if a 10% pullback comes. I expect you r being prudent depending on how old you are. The thing is, if you’re young, you might as well stick it out and not try to time. He said.
This is extremely interesting to me since Shiller CAPE has become such a meme:
>> If you avoided equities while they were above their historical CAPE measurement, you just missed 24 years of equity gains.
Joe,
>> “If It Works Don't Screw With It!”
My point was partly to do this even if it does not work or is not working, or seems not to be, in the moment, or the short term.
In other words, don't screw with it period, and have faith still, i…
>> “If you want to become less stupid at investing, one of the best things to do is surround yourself with people who disagree with you….”.
Well, jeez, within limits. See below.
>> goal to diminish investment innumeracy, especially in…
I see VT mentioned a fair amount, and it's great. Same thinking when I recommend the four AO_ ETFs, one-stop shopping for a great set of blends. (AOK, AOM, AOR, and especially AOA.) Misnamed to an extent, which must be part of the problem, and talk …
Thanks much, all. I cannot go all in (or even half in with RGHVX) with something with a track record going back only to last fall. But these postings and queries have been thought-provoking.
No one says it works all the time or is foolproof. Like investing, ymmv.
As for history tracking, oh yeah, no frankly to it, it is their business, what you do at work. Come on.
Well, try Firefox.
Each of the big three Win browsers offers a clean launch without cookies or memory; if you cannot grok it on your own, just google or try this: Chrome = Ctrl + shift + N, FF = the same only + P, IE = File, New Session.
>> (Next time you tell me something, make it news!)
? missing the point?
Nothing I posted was news in the slightest except to those who think balancing the budget is more important than anything. That's all. I drive in Mass. too. Truly awful…
However, and not to prolong what is close but not yet turned into political pissing, only people who do not understand these things would want to 'balance the US budget', or even attempt same. *All that matters is debt as percentage of GDP.* All. Gr…
Unless there's a transaction fee, as at Fido. Over time of course it's worth it to pay the $50 xaction fee because the ER is much lower, same as with YACKX vs YAFFX.
exp --- gah, I quail when asked for advice, since I mooch here so much and lack confidence financially despite having done okay over the decades (with huge exceptions).
Anyway, I say yes, absolutely, as I have done, because DSENX since last fall h…
>> many haven't had the stomach for it.
The very definition, as you and M* note, for why you buy and stick with a manager. Or else don't buy! My children have held FLCVX for some time, and I did, but now being retired head toward other fund…
jlev, just these:
http://www.doubleline.com/shiller-enhanced-cape-overview.php
http://www.doublelinefunds.com/pdf/DSEEX_Fact_Sheet.pdf
http://www.doublelinefunds.com/pdf/DSEEX_q114_letter.pdf
Thanks much for causing me to go study the PLUS series;…
Chart its performance against anything since its inception --- the outperformance and the lack of increased volatility, comparatively, are what intrigue me. Don't know other 'funds of this format', guess I should look into Pimco's. Pls post when you…
Thanks much. A good comparison, which I will keep in mind. I just charted those two plus FLPSX, a core holding of mine, from Sept 08 to Dec 11, and actually the 08-09 dip hedging and recovery are superior, although not as much as one might hope, yes…
Joe, point taken, but given their unusual approaches, under what rough-water circumstance would they do worst than protective equity funds? Looking for some analytic thinking about them like, or in addition to, what DS already posted.
See
http://www.examiner.com/article/a-pie-chart-every-american-should-get-to-know-as-republicans-cut-spending
~ 2/3 of spending is SS, DoD, Medicare/-aid, and debt interest flowing back to us MFO bondy types :). DoE is a bit over 1%, e.g. I'm sure…
What good funds have shorter holding periods? I do not follow this criterion as I do not wish to bail based on 1-2 mos' performance. (Who does?) Which funds do you favor that permit this and also are good performers ?
In a side discussion of a part…
gah, what is this about? Glancy was there for 2.5 years! 2000-03.
Why post this crap? This is like the second or third time on MFO that this factoid has been posted. Did Glancy do something to you two guys??
I am of course talking about Thomas So…
Ha, like meeting some HBS kid at a party and handing him a check for his instincts. I hope it succeeds wildly. Anyone looking into it might also want to check out the much more experienced Soviero and FLVCX.
>> Small caps are wildly overvalued and will likely lead the next decline. I would never advise initiating or adding to SC exposure here.
I have been reading this every six months or so for the last several years. Just graphed PENNX, FSCRX, W…
Derf, PRWCX is v good, yes, but the manager was not there for the first 2y of the past decade. Sounds minor, but if you measure his performance against others since summer 06, that is 8y, PRWCX is equaled by JABAX and significantly beaten by ICMBX w…
It was not his squandering / failure to promote that stymied it! Not to get into politics and not to defend the guy kneejerk. But LBJ and GHWB themselves could not do successful promotions of any sort with this crowd of oppositional fanatics.
Was trying but failing to be polite, since the shortcomings of GO listings (and this is yet another fine example) have been partly hashed out here recently. And did you study the US News lists you cited? Whoa, puzzling in another, seemingly inexplic…
Duc, in addition or instead, look into FPACX, BUFBX, ICMBX, and JABAX and see what you think. Check performance 2007-2011: all of them outperform VWELX and PRWCX handily and with much better dip performance and recovery.
For simplicity, also look …
>> pay cash for all my medical ... expenses.
You have zero insurance? I suggest you indeed check out Ocare, fear and assumptions apart. I sure hope you stay insanely healthy and are not getting older by the day.
>> 35 years is a long enough time to start to be statistically significant
'start to be' --- now there's a stats assertion you don't read every day.
Speaking of timespans, GPGOX and BRSIX do look interesting, and outperform WEMMX recently (…
Another fine Arends article, and yet another inadvertent plug for active management. I hope (doubtless deluded) that the fact that his universe size is the same as PRBLX and YAFFX/YACKX is other than coincidence :) .
>> But if they do weight to SCV, they should be aware they are accepting increased risk with no guarantee of increased returns.
I do love theoretical argument, especially by academics, but hey, I have an idea instead:
Go to M* 10k growth an…
Oh, I know, one of the drawbacks of the article (and a bit with M*'s hairsplitting classifications). One reason I always dig deeper. I always look at the blend categories whenever I am analyzing value behaviors and records.
Look at it this way. Gra…
