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davidrmoran
I myself see a big pullback coming in the next six months but I don’t know that I have ever been correct over 45 years. I will put a lot of money in if a 10% pullback comes. I expect you r being prudent depending on how old you are. The thing is, if you’re young, you might as well stick it out and not try to time. He said.
>> suggested that most good funds suffer back to back trailing years without noticeable problem, but that funds with three consecutive weak finishes rarely rebound.
Extremely interesting, and it sounds quite as though you have data --- can …
This nice piece of work is, by the end, unwittingly revealing in ways the author may not realize. At least the headline is right and the right question is posed. There's a cost for convenience, absolutely. Can you replicate AO_ slightly more cheaply…
Looks like one of Farrell's more complex lazy portfolios, a little of this, a little of that, a little of every damn thing.
You could assemble your own AOK/AOM/AOR/AOA blend of blends and add commodity/resource/realty seasonings to taste, for an e…
>> website that calculates rolling returns over X years.
I must be misunderstanding this question, because M* does this so far as I can tell, via the sliders at the bottom of the 'More' graph --- no? What am I missing? Or you can simply stick…
GABSX and WEMMX are 1.4%+/-, but have beaten (not by a lot) FLPSX over the decades, also PENNX. Did not seek out other hottest sc funds to compare. Everyone rags on Gabelli, don't know that he is a genius exactly, but he is an extremely able and con…
SPY has done well, better than AMANX, GABEX, JENSX, SSHFX, TWEIX, and other worthies. Also FLVCX, CGMFX, FCNTX, VWELX. Some hindsight (survivor?) bias (is that a technical stats term?): PRBLX, YAFFX, and FLPSX have done notably better.
A nice sharp comment from the current Malkiel WSJ piece, which is weak, by a James Lear:
\\\ The CAPE analysis by Dr. Schiller is an example of sophisticated mathematics done badly. Two reasons:
1) the "cyclically adjusted" portion of his index is…
@Crash --- roger. Since I was obnoxious (also obvious :) ) enough to ask about that, let me continue by pointing out that you have too many funds and an odd somewhat skewed mix for someone who has to take SS at 62. Have you run this by anyone with e…
Gah, I hope he really believes it. 60%, bwahahaha. Just imagine the value ratios then. I would draw amap on my home equity line and margin my poor Fido and ML accounts amap to buy. This is comical, but would be totes awesome.
Great fund, those buckeyes, out in the middle of nowhere. Lots of alpha, badump.
http://online.barrons.com/news/articles/SB50001424052702304539504576532400452721090
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-11/hated-stocks-unlock-market-as-analysts-no…
>> How many students go to college just for the social experience? They build up loans and come out with nothing but a good time. Those same students then wonder why they cannot find a good job. Many end up in govt jobs it seems.
jesus.
What Ted said. I have been looking at its behaviors during such small dips as we have had, and it looks pretty good, but that's a pretty lame sample, and naturally it is the 'time will tell' aspect that concerns. Sector rotation and judgment, yeah, …
Oh, right, 'waste'. Every private firm should be as efficient and low in overhead as, oh, say, Medicare. Much of Heritage's work is notoriously shoddy even for fellow rightwingers.
Truer now than a year ago:
http://www.salon.com/2013/08/05/3_biggest_lies_why_corporate_taxes_should_be_lowered_partner/
Interesting point about Canadian gov acting in national interest too:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2014/08…
Thanks; amazing graph. I knew things had been bad for that index, but did not realize how much so, wow. Notable to me also is how far down FAGIX is; I used to happily own a lot of it, but traded out as I grew more conservative and approaching my 60s.
Roger all
>> I'm sure the best funds will do fine
Let us hope so. I am actually a little nervous some days with big wads in PDI and PONDX, though they do just chug along.
>> manager is explicitly preparing for a rising rate environment
? Surely this applies to PONDX, PDI and all the other Pimco fancy-schmancy vehicles, FSICX, DODIX, FTBFX, the new Gundlach, the old Gundlach, etc., don't you think?
Not crazy at all, to the contrary. I just looked at summer 08 to fall 12, tough time, and it did better overall than MAPOX, GLRBX, FPACX and OAKBX, to name four of the very best actively managed balanced funds (not 40/60, no less). Much better than …
In 35y I have never had conservative well thought-out plan (maybe cuz I ever had one?) be preferable to all-in. Unless you need the money soon, forget it, just do it and don't look back. Looking back causes all the heartache.
Other? MAPOX, maybe OAKBX depending, FPACX, one of the two Yackts if you can get into them. Typo above in Tillinghast (1989). Also in VWELX unless you really go back to 1929.
I was not able to have the patience with DODBX, alas.
What was the net? In other words, is it better to index and do worse but pay lower tax? I look at tax like expenses, totally worth it if the manager does well over time.
Okay, forget 08-09. I just charted way way too big / 'what, are you nuts' FCNTX and way way too-volatile-for-anyone FLVCX against SP500 for 5/3/1y.
And since I am fundamentally too impatient to invest in mfunds in the first place, I also checked 3…
>> experience a childhood where you actually, you know, had to go to the library to do homework instead of using Wikipedia.
That was great, and wikipedia can be extremely weak (at best, sometimes), but my young-adult kids are way better-infor…
Gah, have we not been over this many times? Think about it unaggregated. Chart GABEX, AMANX, PRBLX, YACKX, and FLPSX against SP500 from August 08 to August 2012. All different outfits and approaches. Pay attention to dip depth and then time to recov…
I love Sears, always have. Have bought lots of things there over the decades. Tried tonight to do so again, nice item on terrific sale. Used my Sears card to get an extra few bucks off, beyond free shipping. Card is not expired. But it has been canc…
Guys, exhale; what Gary was chiefly asking for, seems to me, was substantiation of assertions. No need for all-caps about thought police, change in PoA-HC, and dictionary references to pride.
Don't see what's insolent or arrogant about it, but also don't see that any of it needs saying, really. People are profoundly stupid, and worse, resistant? People misunderstand data, can't grasp stats, yada?
For sure.
The web is a big ball of im…
