Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
"There are, however, several methods or tools that are helpful for estimating where we are in the current economic or market cycle based on historic cycles. These methods should not be used for making hard predictions about when the next bear market or recession will begin, but they are useful for making back-of-the-envelope estimates based on historic tendencies."
Kinda wordy in the early going. But some meaningful charts. Back when cash yielded something I recall I once moved to a lot of cash for the decent return. Than guess what? The short end got so high a few months later that the curve inverted and we had a recession and bear market. Good fortune on my part.
Now, with short rates so low, folks may not feel inclined to beef up their cash, even if the curve were to invert. I kinda think the Fed is stuck between a rock and a hard place. But that’s a whole different topic.
P.S. If we slide into a recession and bear market, guess who will receive the blame from the powers that be? (1) Barack Obama and (2) Janet Yellen. Ya can bank on it.
P.S. If we slide into a recession and bear market, guess who will receive the blame from the powers that be? (1) Barack Obama and (2) Janet Yellen. Ya can bank on it.
If Nkorea send missiles to Hawaii tomorrow then they would say why did we not strike Korean today but if we attack nkorea today then they say this president likes war and he likes killing innocent people without conscience... Can't win
@Maurice: I'm getting a bit tired of hearing nothing but an endless litany of unsupportable invective and garbage from you. If you have some actual facts, citations, or examples, lets see them. Your belief that the right-wing has an exemption from dealing in reality tends to undercut your positions: when confronted with factual information that may be inconvenient for your skewed views, you seem to believe that calling names, screaming "fake news" or "lies and deceit" somehow negates it's validity. If you're looking for our nation's leading source of lies, deceit and manipulation, try your leader in the White House.
It's no coincidence that the daily chorus of "fake news", "lies and deceit" was unheard of before the present administration (if it may even be called an "administration", rather than a circus).
The bear market is already here and the decline is far from being done. From the market peak as of 1/26/18 till 2/9/18, here is the 2018 return:
S&P 500 as represented by Vanguard 500 Index: -9.3% International market as represented by Vanguard Developed Market Index fund: -9.3% Emerging marker as represented by Vanguard Emerging Market Index: -10.8%
If the decline is in the order of 20% or more, there will be more to come. The next rate hike will come in March, follow by two more in June and September and possibly a fourth one. Since chairman Powell is not as accomdating as Janet Yellen, the street is betting on 3 hikes. Interesting how suddenly everyone is worrying about inflation when employment figure is released.
(3) I’ve made a few changes in recent weeks to dampen downside a bit. However, my confidence in my predictions is only 51%. So no. I haven’t bet the whole farm on the anticipated bear market - just a few tweaks to make sure I come out of it alive.
(4) I’m not big on fundamentals. (Maybe @Sevn Is.) I tend to consider trends, length and intensity thereof, valuation changes over time, and human and market psychology (generally contrary indicators). Sometimes I get it about right. Sometimes not.
This time reminds me of 1994 when the Fed raised rate aggressively to fight inflation. While the economy was doing well, three quarter point raise slowed the stock market (S&P 500) to 1.33%. Many felt it was overly aggressive and unnecessary, but that was Alan Greenspan.
Today labor condition is tight while the global market is doing well. Valuation-wise the domestic market is a bit stretched. The talk of rate hike with the new Fed chair Powell changed the market outlook quickly.
@hank, I am not fundamentally driven in my investment approach, but history tends to repeat itself. If this is a correction due to over-valuation, this maybe a good thing in the long run before it build into bubbles as we have seem before that are much more damaging and long lasting.
Virtually 100% of our family's estate is invested in mutual funds. But based on last week's roller coaster up and down volatility (including the 1,600 point drop in the DJIA on Feb. 5, 2018) I am thinking about taking our mutual funds out of the market. But I don't know what to do. Should I wait and see what happens and ride out this wave or get out while I still can and take the money and run? Virtually three generations of our family's estate is invested in mutual funds. CNBC's Cramer (from Mad Mondy) says that the stock market is not stable nowadays and I am getting nervous about if I should keep our family's money in Mutual funds.
We have a mixed bag of many many funds that were collected over the years. I can follow up in another post with the names of the funds.
Your suggestions and advice would be greatly appreciated.
Is it a scam, a waste of time or is it worth the time and money?
I don't have any formal stock selection training and I thought about taking this course. Or do you have any other suggestions where I can get formal stock training on who to make decisions on how to buy or sell stocks. Up to now I have been using Morning Star ratings or Schwab ratings to make my decisions.
Do not watch Cramer Do not take all of your funds out of the market You can post your fund list and get good (also less-good) advice about consolidation and diversification Do not spend money on courses If you just cannot bear it, or need cash within a year or two, then sure, sell some holdings as the market recovers, which it almost certainly will (this is a technical correction, not something bigger or more systemic) If you can bear it, leave well enough alone, but do post your list. The bear-it question is perhaps answered since you have turned to this forum. Exhale and hang on, and hang in. For starters, read the last few weeks of Barron's, which has not only insightful and mostly reassuring long-view articles, but also specific stock ideas, argued and substantiated, if it comes to that for you.
Thank you very much davidmoran for your quick reply and advice. I will follow up later today with my full list of mutual funds and the associated ratings (Morning Star, Schwab, etc.).
By the way, does anyone remember the old web page called Fund Alarm? It no longer exists but I am looking for a person who use to post on Fund Alarm who went by the name of Bleco and he was Michigan (Either Flint or Lansing). I am also from Michigan but I am from Southeastern Michigan.
Bleco had some very interesting and insightful thoughts. I was in contact with him but I lost contact with him and am trying to contact him again.
So if anyone knows or has any idea how I can get in contact with Bleco please let me know. Thank you very much.
— You control an en estate that has been accumulated by 3 generations.
— The entire estate (or bulk of it) is invested in various mutual funds.
— You have become rattled by the recent market swings and what financial pundits like Jim Cramer have said.
— You think a solution might be to sell all your funds and/or take an online course in stock trading.
My thoughts ...
— Generally, it’s easier to lose money in this world than acquire it, so count you and your estate fortunate.
— Mutual funds have proven to be a wise investment over the years - some better than others. One advantage of a mutual fund is that it spreads risk among many more individual stocks or securities than most individual investors can afford to own.
— Market swings and downdrafts are normal. And investing entails the risk of losing money. The recent swings are more erratic than usual. You’ll find a wide variety of perspectives here on how to deal with that. These range from on one hand moving in and out of the market (timing) to on the other hand closing your eyes, doing nothing, and shutting out all the blabber. Most employ strategies somewhere in between those two extremes.
— I don’t think that in your case becoming a stock trader is the answer. Funds will give you a gentler ride. Can’t speak to the course you linked, but the promo seems to suggest becoming a successful trader is something one can master in a few hours, days or weeks. Be assured it is not.
— David gave you plenty of good advice. Having a short attention span, I like Barron’s as a good starting place for financial information. (Not for specific investment recommendations, but for learning the language of the investment world and seeing a lot of different points of view.) If you want to go deeper, there are a lot of great books at Amazon by some of the great investors: Benjamin Graham, Peter Lynch, Howard Marks, Warren Buffett, John Bogle, etc. A quick light-hearted read is Andrew Tobias’ The Only Investment Guide You’ll Ever Need.
@zuky1: Welcome to MFO ! I believe the market will move about 11% higher the remainder of 2018, and recommend you stay in the market. However, its your money not mine, and if are having trouble sleeping at night by all means get out. Regards, Ted
Several folks here were also at FundAlarm. I recall "Bleco", but do not have contact info.
A few agrees and adds to what has already been noted by others here.
As you were at FundAlarm for some period of time, might we presume you follow the markets to some extent?
What has caused you/the estate to become especially concerned with this current market correction? The equity markets have had several bumps to the downside since the market melt of 2008/2009.
As to the 3 generation family estate:
1. Who has been or is now managing the investments ? Is a registered advisor involved?
2. Any sales would be a taxable event, yes or no ?
3. What took place with these investments during the market melt in 2008 - 2009 ? Where they held in place, sold or ?
4. Have these investments been sold previous, during other market down cycles during the past 9 years or so?
5. Is this estate within a "trust" or some other legal entity ?
Lastly, if you choose to provide a mutual fund list; when entering the "symbols", type them in CAPS and without a period, comma, colon marks or other punctuation marks immediately surrounding the symbol. Example: FDGRX , you will note that if you place the cursor or pointer on the highlighted blue, you will see that this fund is Fidelity Growth. I agree with previous comments as to "Cramer", and that one can not learn how to trade stocks, mutual or etf funds or technical aspects of the markets in a 3 or 20 week course. If one can study such..........and be assured of 95% positive outcomes; then this person has found their new calling in life. There are indeed the rare folks who are able to attain such knowledge, use it properly and find investment bliss, but ......
No known Guru's here; but a lot of folks have much seat time with the markets and will help you think things through.
Probably other questions.....but a starting point. Regards, Catch
Hi Catch22, Thanks for your post. I was really busy over the last day. You have lots of good questions which I will answer but I am busy today too.
I will post all the mutual funds that our family estate is invested in but there are so many of them that just gathering up the list is a chore which I need to set aside time to do. I was counting up the list and my guesstimate is that our family estate is invested in well over 100 mutual funds. Needless to say, "the estate" is diversified (even over-diversified).
I will follow up with relies to your questions / topics and with the list of mutual funds that our family is invested in and post it when I am able hopefully tonight.
@Zuky1: "our family estate is invested in well over 100 mutual funds" you got to be kidding me ! You have advanced stages of diworsification, see a mutual fund doctor immediately. Regards, Ted
Comments
Kinda wordy in the early going. But some meaningful charts. Back when cash yielded something I recall I once moved to a lot of cash for the decent return. Than guess what? The short end got so high a few months later that the curve inverted and we had a recession and bear market. Good fortune on my part.
Now, with short rates so low, folks may not feel inclined to beef up their cash, even if the curve were to invert. I kinda think the Fed is stuck between a rock and a hard place. But that’s a whole different topic.
P.S. If we slide into a recession and bear market, guess who will receive the blame from the powers that be? (1) Barack Obama and (2) Janet Yellen. Ya can bank on it.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4144744-dammit-janet-love-opened-pandoras-box-analysis?uprof=46&isDirectRoadblock=false
although we do have that infant now, so it's gonna be all good
As for the next election, just have patience.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/09/business/stock-market-turned-nasty-long-overdue.html
@Maurice: I'm getting a bit tired of hearing nothing but an endless litany of unsupportable invective and garbage from you. If you have some actual facts, citations, or examples, lets see them. Your belief that the right-wing has an exemption from dealing in reality tends to undercut your positions: when confronted with factual information that may be inconvenient for your skewed views, you seem to believe that calling names, screaming "fake news" or "lies and deceit" somehow negates it's validity. If you're looking for our nation's leading source of lies, deceit and manipulation, try your leader in the White House.
It's no coincidence that the daily chorus of "fake news", "lies and deceit" was unheard of before the present administration (if it may even be called an "administration", rather than a circus).
Stern note to follow.
S&P 500 as represented by Vanguard 500 Index: -9.3%
International market as represented by Vanguard Developed Market Index fund: -9.3%
Emerging marker as represented by Vanguard Emerging Market Index: -10.8%
If the decline is in the order of 20% or more, there will be more to come. The next rate hike will come in March, follow by two more in June and September and possibly a fourth one. Since chairman Powell is not as accomdating as Janet Yellen, the street is betting on 3 hikes. Interesting how suddenly everyone is worrying about inflation when employment figure is released.
(1) Not Sven, but I generally agree with him.
(2) I’m rarely a betting man.
(3) I’ve made a few changes in recent weeks to dampen downside a bit. However, my confidence in my predictions is only 51%. So no. I haven’t bet the whole farm on the anticipated bear market - just a few tweaks to make sure I come out of it alive.
(4) I’m not big on fundamentals. (Maybe @Sevn Is.) I tend to consider trends, length and intensity thereof, valuation changes over time, and human and market psychology (generally contrary indicators). Sometimes I get it about right. Sometimes not.
Party on ...
seems to me (and many others, of course) little really has changed, but major modulation due to fear of rising rates is a good thing
Today labor condition is tight while the global market is doing well. Valuation-wise the domestic market is a bit stretched. The talk of rate hike with the new Fed chair Powell changed the market outlook quickly.
@hank, I am not fundamentally driven in my investment approach, but history tends to repeat itself. If this is a correction due to over-valuation, this maybe a good thing in the long run before it build into bubbles as we have seem before that are much more damaging and long lasting.
Virtually three generations of our family's estate is invested in mutual funds.
CNBC's Cramer (from Mad Mondy) says that the stock market is not stable nowadays and I am getting nervous about if I should keep our family's money in Mutual funds.
We have a mixed bag of many many funds that were collected over the years.
I can follow up in another post with the names of the funds.
Your suggestions and advice would be greatly appreciated.
https://www.tradingacademy.com/
Is it a scam, a waste of time or is it worth the time and money?
I don't have any formal stock selection training and I thought about taking this course.
Or do you have any other suggestions where I can get formal stock training on who to make decisions on how to buy or sell stocks.
Up to now I have been using Morning Star ratings or Schwab ratings to make my decisions.
Do not take all of your funds out of the market
You can post your fund list and get good (also less-good) advice about consolidation and diversification
Do not spend money on courses
If you just cannot bear it, or need cash within a year or two, then sure, sell some holdings as the market recovers, which it almost certainly will (this is a technical correction, not something bigger or more systemic)
If you can bear it, leave well enough alone, but do post your list. The bear-it question is perhaps answered since you have turned to this forum.
Exhale and hang on, and hang in.
For starters, read the last few weeks of Barron's, which has not only insightful and mostly reassuring long-view articles, but also specific stock ideas, argued and substantiated, if it comes to that for you.
I will follow up later today with my full list of mutual funds and the associated ratings (Morning Star, Schwab, etc.).
By the way, does anyone remember the old web page called Fund Alarm? It no longer exists but I am looking for a person who use to post on Fund Alarm who went by the name of Bleco and he was Michigan (Either Flint or Lansing). I am also from Michigan but I am from Southeastern Michigan.
Bleco had some very interesting and insightful thoughts. I was in contact with him but I lost contact with him and am trying to contact him again.
So if anyone knows or has any idea how I can get in contact with Bleco please let me know. Thank you very much.
— You control an en estate that has been accumulated by 3 generations.
— The entire estate (or bulk of it) is invested in various mutual funds.
— You have become rattled by the recent market swings and what financial pundits like Jim Cramer have said.
— You think a solution might be to sell all your funds and/or take an online course in stock trading.
My thoughts ...
— Generally, it’s easier to lose money in this world than acquire it, so count you and your estate fortunate.
— Mutual funds have proven to be a wise investment over the years - some better than others. One advantage of a mutual fund is that it spreads risk among many more individual stocks or securities than most individual investors can afford to own.
— Market swings and downdrafts are normal. And investing entails the risk of losing money. The recent swings are more erratic than usual. You’ll find a wide variety of perspectives here on how to deal with that. These range from on one hand moving in and out of the market (timing) to on the other hand closing your eyes, doing nothing, and shutting out all the blabber. Most employ strategies somewhere in between those two extremes.
— I don’t think that in your case becoming a stock trader is the answer. Funds will give you a gentler ride. Can’t speak to the course you linked, but the promo seems to suggest becoming a successful trader is something one can master in a few hours, days or weeks. Be assured it is not.
— David gave you plenty of good advice. Having a short attention span, I like Barron’s as a good starting place for financial information. (Not for specific investment recommendations, but for learning the language of the investment world and seeing a lot of different points of view.) If you want to go deeper, there are a lot of great books at Amazon by some of the great investors: Benjamin Graham, Peter Lynch, Howard Marks, Warren Buffett, John Bogle, etc. A quick light-hearted read is Andrew Tobias’ The Only Investment Guide You’ll Ever Need.
Good Luck.
Regards,
Ted
Several folks here were also at FundAlarm. I recall "Bleco", but do not have contact info.
A few agrees and adds to what has already been noted by others here.
As you were at FundAlarm for some period of time, might we presume you follow the markets to some extent?
What has caused you/the estate to become especially concerned with this current market correction? The equity markets have had several bumps to the downside since the market melt of 2008/2009.
As to the 3 generation family estate:
1. Who has been or is now managing the investments ? Is a registered advisor involved?
2. Any sales would be a taxable event, yes or no ?
3. What took place with these investments during the market melt in 2008 - 2009 ? Where they held in place, sold or ?
4. Have these investments been sold previous, during other market down cycles during the past 9 years or so?
5. Is this estate within a "trust" or some other legal entity ?
Lastly, if you choose to provide a mutual fund list; when entering the "symbols", type them in CAPS and without a period, comma, colon marks or other punctuation marks immediately surrounding the symbol.
Example: FDGRX , you will note that if you place the cursor or pointer on the highlighted blue, you will see that this fund is Fidelity Growth.
I agree with previous comments as to "Cramer", and that one can not learn how to trade stocks, mutual or etf funds or technical aspects of the markets in a 3 or 20 week course. If one can study such..........and be assured of 95% positive outcomes; then this person has found their new calling in life. There are indeed the rare folks who are able to attain such knowledge, use it properly and find investment bliss, but ......
No known Guru's here; but a lot of folks have much seat time with the markets and will help you think things through.
Probably other questions.....but a starting point.
Regards,
Catch
Thanks for your post. I was really busy over the last day. You have lots of good questions which I will answer but I am busy today too.
I will post all the mutual funds that our family estate is invested in but there are so many of them that just gathering up the list is a chore which I need to set aside time to do. I was counting up the list and my guesstimate is that our family estate is invested in well over 100 mutual funds. Needless to say, "the estate" is diversified (even over-diversified).
I will follow up with relies to your questions / topics and with the list of mutual funds that our family is invested in and post it when I am able hopefully tonight.
Thanks again. I'll follow up. Best kind regards,
Zuky1
Regards,
Ted