Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
This week saw Old_Skeet's market barometer finish the week with a reading of 140 indicating the S&P 500 Index is overvalued. A reading one point lower and the Index would fall into the overbought area. Generally, a lower reading indicates there is less investment value over a higher reading. Based upon a seasonal investment strategy I am overweight equities at this time over what my equity weighting matrix calls for by about 5%.
Also, at this time, the barometer is not finding any of the major sectors within the Index to be undervalued or oversold from a technical score perspective. With this, I am still with my cash build mode within my portfolio where most of my mutual fund distributions are taken in cash. This in of itself will be a rebalance of sorts as a good number of mutual funds will be making their annual capital gains distributions in December. With this, I'm expecting my allocation in cash to rise and my allocation in equities to fall. Come the end of December or the first part of January I may do some buying. Currently, I'm thinking in the hybrid fund area and looking at convertibles and multialternative funds.
In addition, you might find my comments and those made by others of interest in the thread linked below which centers around methods used to rebalance a portfolio.
This week Old_Skeet's market barometer, by it's metrics, finished the week with a reading of 139 putting the S&P 500 Index in overbought territory. Even with resetting and advancing the earnings feed to what next month's input will be the barometer still indicated the Index is overbought. The earnings feed is reset monthly.
With this, I am still with my cash build mode within my portfolio as I am now starting to see some of my equity mutual funds make their year end capital gain distributions. I did make another step buy in my double tax free muni fund (FMTNX) as there was a big pull back in MUB Friday. If muni's keep pulling back I'll most likely make another nearterm step buy as my tax equlivant yield is a little above 4% in this fund. In comparison the 10 Year Treasury is currently yielding just short of 2.4%.
@Old_Skeet, From this linked BI Article with Morgan Stanley Analyst:
2,750 could also be the peak for next year, Wilson said. That's based on the expectation that S&P 500 earnings growth will peak and financial conditions will tighten as the Fed continues to hike rates.
"We would be very surprised if we don't return to a more normal environment and witness at least one if not several 10 percent plus drawdowns next year," he said.
@ Old_Skeet.. Have you ever considered writing a book?? Maybe not even exactly "a 'book'" so much as a compendium of thoughts, principles, & strategies. As in, acquired wisdom that we could all explore/reference/contemplate as time and life permit? OK, so you are entitled to leisure, but still, I think it would be a worthwhile endeavor.
Sold a position in PFIDX and split the proceeds adding to PONDX and buying a new position in IOFAX. Probably late to the party with IOFAX but went there anyway.
Put some play money in TFI (SPDR® Nuveen Bloomberg Barclays Municipal Bond ETF) hoping to get on the muni bandwagon. Alas, I sure know how to stop a rally
@MikeM - I respectfully request that you not put your rally stopping powers to work at this time. I'll call you when it's appropriate to do so.
On an off topic matter, I truly enjoyed the game your boys played in this past Sunday. Very reminiscent of a New Years Day tradition here in my neighborhood of this frozen tundra we call home.
Thanks @Mark. I don't know if you got to see any of the game on TV, but it was the most amazing (in the strangest way) NFL football game I ever saw. It probably was a matter of luck, not skill, which team would end up winning. A Lake Erie lake-effect snow storm at it's best. And still there were over 60 thousand crazy people in the stands.
I promise not to make another transaction this year.
I’ve lightened up ever so slightly on IOFIX. Will sell more if it takes out recent lows and buy back if it takes out recent highs (adjusted for November dividend). The non agencies seem to have hit a wall here albeit IOFIX hasn’t really been affected. Had thought I would be in retirement mode in 2017 and be more diversified in bonds and happy with a 5% return but then along came IOFIX. I don’t see why the non agency story can’t continue in 2018 so anxious to see what January brings. But price is always the final arbiter, not what I think.
@Junkster, Reading your insights and appreciation for the surprises of the HY Bonds market is every bit as interesting and inspiring as a good episode of not-so-junk food on Diners, Drive-ins and Dives.
The barometer report week ending Friday December 15, 2017
This week Old_Skeet's market barometer finished the week with a reading of 136 which falls into the overbought area on the barometer's scale. Last week, the barometer reading was 139. So, by the barometer's metrics there is currently less investment value in the S&P 500 Index over the week before. Should the barometer reach a reading below 135 then the Index will be considered extremely overbought on the barometer's scale.
In viewing the technical score reading for the major sectors of the 500 Index I am finding that none are presently undervalued or oversold. Everything is at fairvalue and above. With this, Old_Skeet is still with his cash build mode as a good number of my mutal funds have began to make their yearend distributions. Last week, I added to my muni fund while this week I sat on the sidelines.
This coming week I'll probally add to my convertible securities fund as convertibles have a bond like floor with an equity like upside. Being very conserative presently as to how I approach the market. Remember, for me, building cash this time of the year is much like an automatic rebalance, of sorts, as it reduces my equity allocation while building my cash as my mutal funds make their yearend distributions.
Once I can see how my portfolio bubbles, from an asset allocation basis, I may do some select asset buying as I feel it warranted.
@MFO Members: Update on the returns of the Linkster's six fund boring pedestrian portfolio. Regards, Ted Equity: MSOPX: 46.29% TRBCX: 37.56% QQQ: 34.01% SPY: 21.54%
Hi @Ted, The critical measure(s) of a total portfolio related to performance is: --- what is the percentage holding of a particular investment, relative to the total portfolio, which obviously gives or takes away a % from total portfolio performance. --- though one can provide a year over year, or YTD performance return, is this indeed an investors return? Surely, one's return in an investment has its basis in purchase price, yes? If I purchased MSOPX 3 months ago and the holding was 5% of my portfolio, the YTD return would be interesting to show to my B.I.L., but that is about it, eh?
I always assume in posts like that that the author also indicated earlier the date of purchase(s). So I would be fairly confident @Ted has done that somewhere along the way. He’s obviously a lot more aggressively positioned than most investors in their 70s or 80s are. I’m happy for his good fortune.
Personally, I’ve strived to leave visible documented “tracks” in the What Are You Buying, Selling, Pondering? threads as to my purchases and sales of a tactical nature. That’s only fair to readers. Some of those tactical moves reported over the past 3-4 years involved funds like: PRLAX, PRNEX, OPGSX, OREAX, QRAAX (closed) and PIEQX. Not perfect, but at least I’ve tried to be transparent. By that, I mean that if you’re going to write about how much a fund you hold has gained, you should also have noted your purchase at/about the time you bought.
Early this week I reported a small purchase of a gold and precious metals fund (OPGSX). Anyone following the “tracks” would find that I sold it in early September at/near a yearly high. And that it dropped more than 15% in the 3.5 months I was out of it. And, obviously, readers can note how it pans out in the coming months. IMHO these “buying and selling” threads have pretty much run their course. So I probably won’t share future buys and sells. Thanks to those who have contributed and continue to contribute to them.
I understand your stance on a thread being viable and then by the will of the board fading with lack of comments and viewers. As long a @Puddnhead continues to put the thread up; and, it continues to draw viewers ... I'll continue my support by making post.
Should the viewers and posters wane to the point where I feel my time is extended beyond appreciation ... I'll be gone too.
I disagree @Hank with your statement that this monthly thread has run it's course. It is the most viewed thread on this site. That speaks volumes.
I personally find it pretty interesting to see what people are buying and selling. It doesn't steer me to specific funds for the most part, but it makes me think. Mostly I glean that we have many different types of investors here. Some love to add the current star to their list of investments. Others like to stay-pat with a comfortable portfolio and nibble at the edges (that would be you and me I think). Some like to time the market. But altogether, whether I agree or not with one's decisions, it is undeniably interesting reading.
I hope Pud keeps it going for a long time. The number of views tells the tale of what people like.
Hi guys! I have a few ponderings... I see that imports for the LA ports are at record highs for 5 months straight. Is it Christmas? Or jobs, maybe? Weather related? I wonder what they're importing.....fridges, washers, dryers, microwaves, toasters, etc. Now I'm waiting for Santa to come because I believe after that I'm going to sell some things.
What do I worry about in 2018? Healthcare: it's an election thing. Bitcoin: I heard enough already. Please do me a favor and crash next year.....like January 2nd, please. I also saw that the Japanese under own their own market. It seems to have a lot of foreign money driving it. I was surprised about that. In Europe, they don't have enough bonds to buy....yet it doesn't seem to stop them. Amazing! Only in the EU. I also worry about China and its debt. I get The Economist. They have been writing about it. Also, just saw something on CNBC: 40k pay half the taxes in New York City. Say, WHAT?! Half, and there are how many people that live there. Now, sold FSRFX. Bought it in September on the weather thing. Also added to PONDX. Have a short buy list for January if things go well: BTBFX, DSENX, FJSCX, and FTIPX. I'm still bullish for 2018. It's all good 'til the flags fly, i.e., Memorial Day. God bless the Pudd
I am bullish for the upcoming year, but have just sold a patch of DSENX (post-runup) in a Roth just to be able to think clearly about cash needs (dau wedding) next fall and possible dip buying prior (CAPE vs NOBL vs QUAL vs DGRO). Also about $200k <4% heloc with interesting nondeductibility looming. Do I care whether it is 3.75% deductible, or a bit higher? Am tracking SOI to buy in Jan, maybe. Will be running ORP several times w new tax situations to see about where to fund non-SS cashflow for the year too.
I've been both rebalancing (mostly taking tax losses as I'll rebalance gains in Jan) and getting rid of individual stocks that I've concluded (its about time) I don't have enough success with. Most of the stocks were energy related that I tried to buy when it tanked and a little healthcare too, like VRX (ugh!)
I also sold the last bit of FSCRX I had, a decision that was made when Chuck Myers announced his retirement but I took plenty of time implementing in a bunch of small steps.
I've been nibbling around high yield and munis, such as ARTFX, MMHAX and PRFHX. I'm trying to increase my tax-free income. After the huge run-up in equities, it just doesn't feel right to be adding to stock funds at this time. I keep waiting for a pullback but hasn't happened.
This week Old_Skeet's market barometer finished the week with a reading of 136 (the same as last week) indicating that the S&P 500 Index remains overbought. Generally, a higher reading on the barometer's scale indicates there is more investment value in the 500 Index over a lower reading.
In review of my sector compass, even with the recent pullback in utilities (XLU), I am finding there are currently no sectors (from a technical basis) that have undervalued or oversold readings. The three best performing sectors for the week were energy (XLE), financials (XLF) and materials (XLB). For the quarter the three best performers are consumer discretionary (XLY), financials (XLF), and technology (XLK). Year-to-date the three best performing sectors have been technology (XLK), consumer discretionay (XLY), and industrials (XLI).
In review of my global compass the three best performers for the week were Asia ex Japan (AXJL), emerging markets (EEM) and metals (CEF). For the quarter the three best performers were Japan (EWJ), S&P Mid Caps (MDY), and S&P 500 (SPY). Year-to-date the three best performing have been emerging markets (EEM), Asia ex Japan (AXJL), and Japan (EWJ).
A good number of my mutual funds have now paid their year end capital gains ... and, with this, I am sitting on some excess cash as I take most fund distributions in cash. My worst performing equity sleeve thus far this year has been my small/mid cap sleeve with a year-to-date return of 12.8%. With this, I did some equity buying in this sleeve, this week, and raised it's weighting in the growth area of my portfolio. I'm thinking the smids should have a better year in 2018.
Currently, year-to-date my portfolio's investment returns have been 13.9% and in comparison the Lipper Balance Index is up the same (13.9%) while a static 50/50 Index allocation that I track is up 11.8% and a professional run 50/50 adjustable mix Index fund is up 12.4%. My portfolio's allocation mix is 50/50 +/- 5% and gets tweaked form time-to-time. According to my equity weighting matrix I am overweight equity by 5% over what the matrix is currently calling for due to a seasonal investment strategy.
With most assets currently being richly valued I remain in my cash build mode; but, doing a little buying around the edges. Thus far in December I have bought some muni's and smids. Looking at putting some money to work in a hybrid fund before year end.
Hi guys! Have been kicking around some funds for 2018. Between FLPSX or LCEAX. What do you think? I've owned both before. They both have cash....I like that a lot right now. LCEAX lags which could be good for 2018. Also, anybody own MAPIX? I've been thinking about that for more Asia owned it long ago. Also am looking at PSHDX to hold cash that will do better than money markets. God bless the Pudd
I only hold 5 funds but MAPIX is one of them and has been for a long time. Others that I know of have been adding to it lately. I can't tell you if it's right for you or not.
I've also held MAPIX for a long time, since its Andrew Foster days, but I reduced it a few months ago, in part because I originally bought it for exposure to Japan. It currently has even more exposure to China, which I get plenty of in other funds. It's sector exposure is more to my liking than many funds who are investing in China but for me at least, its now a fund I'm happy to have but not as a large position.
Comments
This week saw Old_Skeet's market barometer finish the week with a reading of 140 indicating the S&P 500 Index is overvalued. A reading one point lower and the Index would fall into the overbought area. Generally, a lower reading indicates there is less investment value over a higher reading. Based upon a seasonal investment strategy I am overweight equities at this time over what my equity weighting matrix calls for by about 5%.
Also, at this time, the barometer is not finding any of the major sectors within the Index to be undervalued or oversold from a technical score perspective. With this, I am still with my cash build mode within my portfolio where most of my mutual fund distributions are taken in cash. This in of itself will be a rebalance of sorts as a good number of mutual funds will be making their annual capital gains distributions in December. With this, I'm expecting my allocation in cash to rise and my allocation in equities to fall. Come the end of December or the first part of January I may do some buying. Currently, I'm thinking in the hybrid fund area and looking at convertibles and multialternative funds.
In addition, you might find my comments and those made by others of interest in the thread linked below which centers around methods used to rebalance a portfolio.
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/36992/ping-old-skeet-5-rebalancing-bands-for-your-fund-portfolio#latest
Have a great week and thanks for stopping by and reading.
Old_Skeet
This week Old_Skeet's market barometer, by it's metrics, finished the week with a reading of 139 putting the S&P 500 Index in overbought territory. Even with resetting and advancing the earnings feed to what next month's input will be the barometer still indicated the Index is overbought. The earnings feed is reset monthly.
With this, I am still with my cash build mode within my portfolio as I am now starting to see some of my equity mutual funds make their year end capital gain distributions. I did make another step buy in my double tax free muni fund (FMTNX) as there was a big pull back in MUB Friday. If muni's keep pulling back I'll most likely make another nearterm step buy as my tax equlivant yield is a little above 4% in this fund. In comparison the 10 Year Treasury is currently yielding just short of 2.4%.
Thanks for stopping by and reading.
From this linked BI Article with Morgan Stanley Analyst: businessinsider.com/stock-market-news-forecast-2018-morgan-stanley-2017-11
OK, so you are entitled to leisure, but still, I think it would be a worthwhile endeavor.
I’ll add: Gold’s been acting strange. Suspect the Bitcoin craze has something to do with it.
Regards,
Ted
Put some play money in TFI (SPDR® Nuveen Bloomberg Barclays Municipal Bond ETF) hoping to get on the muni bandwagon. Alas, I sure know how to stop a rally
On an off topic matter, I truly enjoyed the game your boys played in this past Sunday. Very reminiscent of a New Years Day tradition here in my neighborhood of this frozen tundra we call home.
I promise not to make another transaction this year.
Reading your insights and appreciation for the surprises of the HY Bonds market is every bit as interesting and inspiring as a good episode of not-so-junk food on Diners, Drive-ins and Dives.
@JunksterBondFoodForThought...Thanks.
This week Old_Skeet's market barometer finished the week with a reading of 136 which falls into the overbought area on the barometer's scale. Last week, the barometer reading was 139. So, by the barometer's metrics there is currently less investment value in the S&P 500 Index over the week before. Should the barometer reach a reading below 135 then the Index will be considered extremely overbought on the barometer's scale.
In viewing the technical score reading for the major sectors of the 500 Index I am finding that none are presently undervalued or oversold. Everything is at fairvalue and above. With this, Old_Skeet is still with his cash build mode as a good number of my mutal funds have began to make their yearend distributions. Last week, I added to my muni fund while this week I sat on the sidelines.
This coming week I'll probally add to my convertible securities fund as convertibles have a bond like floor with an equity like upside. Being very conserative presently as to how I approach the market. Remember, for me, building cash this time of the year is much like an automatic rebalance, of sorts, as it reduces my equity allocation while building my cash as my mutal funds make their yearend distributions.
Once I can see how my portfolio bubbles, from an asset allocation basis, I may do some select asset buying as I feel it warranted.
I wish all ... "Good Investing."
Old_Skeet
Regards,
Ted
Equity:
MSOPX: 46.29%
TRBCX: 37.56%
QQQ: 34.01%
SPY: 21.54%
Bond:
PONCX: 7.29%
PBDCX: 6.80%
Are you not window dressing?
Skeet
The critical measure(s) of a total portfolio related to performance is:
--- what is the percentage holding of a particular investment, relative to the total portfolio, which obviously gives or takes away a % from total portfolio performance.
--- though one can provide a year over year, or YTD performance return, is this indeed an investors return? Surely, one's return in an investment has its basis in purchase price, yes?
If I purchased MSOPX 3 months ago and the holding was 5% of my portfolio, the YTD return would be interesting to show to my B.I.L., but that is about it, eh?
Personally, I’ve strived to leave visible documented “tracks” in the What Are You Buying, Selling, Pondering? threads as to my purchases and sales of a tactical nature. That’s only fair to readers. Some of those tactical moves reported over the past 3-4 years involved funds like: PRLAX, PRNEX, OPGSX, OREAX, QRAAX (closed) and PIEQX. Not perfect, but at least I’ve tried to be transparent. By that, I mean that if you’re going to write about how much a fund you hold has gained, you should also have noted your purchase at/about the time you bought.
Early this week I reported a small purchase of a gold and precious metals fund (OPGSX). Anyone following the “tracks” would find that I sold it in early September at/near a yearly high. And that it dropped more than 15% in the 3.5 months I was out of it. And, obviously, readers can note how it pans out in the coming months. IMHO these “buying and selling” threads have pretty much run their course. So I probably won’t share future buys and sells. Thanks to those who have contributed and continue to contribute to them.
Regards
I understand your stance on a thread being viable and then by the will of the board fading with lack of comments and viewers. As long a @Puddnhead continues to put the thread up; and, it continues to draw viewers ... I'll continue my support by making post.
Should the viewers and posters wane to the point where I feel my time is extended beyond appreciation ... I'll be gone too.
My best to you this Holiday Season.
Skeet
I personally find it pretty interesting to see what people are buying and selling. It doesn't steer me to specific funds for the most part, but it makes me think. Mostly I glean that we have many different types of investors here. Some love to add the current star to their list of investments. Others like to stay-pat with a comfortable portfolio and nibble at the edges (that would be you and me I think). Some like to time the market. But altogether, whether I agree or not with one's decisions, it is undeniably interesting reading.
I hope Pud keeps it going for a long time. The number of views tells the tale of what people like.
I have a few ponderings...
I see that imports for the LA ports are at record highs for 5 months straight. Is it Christmas? Or jobs, maybe? Weather related? I wonder what they're importing.....fridges, washers, dryers, microwaves, toasters, etc. Now I'm waiting for Santa to come because I believe after that I'm going to sell some things.
What do I worry about in 2018? Healthcare: it's an election thing. Bitcoin: I heard enough already. Please do me a favor and crash next year.....like January 2nd, please. I also saw that the Japanese under own their own market. It seems to have a lot of foreign money driving it. I was surprised about that. In Europe, they don't have enough bonds to buy....yet it doesn't seem to stop them. Amazing! Only in the EU. I also worry about China and its debt. I get The Economist. They have been writing about it. Also, just saw something on CNBC: 40k pay half the taxes in New York City. Say, WHAT?! Half, and there are how many people that live there.
Now, sold FSRFX. Bought it in September on the weather thing. Also added to PONDX. Have a short buy list for January if things go well: BTBFX, DSENX, FJSCX, and FTIPX. I'm still bullish for 2018. It's all good 'til the flags fly, i.e., Memorial Day.
God bless
the Pudd
Also about $200k <4% heloc with interesting nondeductibility looming. Do I care whether it is 3.75% deductible, or a bit higher?
Am tracking SOI to buy in Jan, maybe.
Will be running ORP several times w new tax situations to see about where to fund non-SS cashflow for the year too.
I also sold the last bit of FSCRX I had, a decision that was made when Chuck Myers announced his retirement but I took plenty of time implementing in a bunch of small steps.
This week Old_Skeet's market barometer finished the week with a reading of 136 (the same as last week) indicating that the S&P 500 Index remains overbought. Generally, a higher reading on the barometer's scale indicates there is more investment value in the 500 Index over a lower reading.
In review of my sector compass, even with the recent pullback in utilities (XLU), I am finding there are currently no sectors (from a technical basis) that have undervalued or oversold readings. The three best performing sectors for the week were energy (XLE), financials (XLF) and materials (XLB). For the quarter the three best performers are consumer discretionary (XLY), financials (XLF), and technology (XLK). Year-to-date the three best performing sectors have been technology (XLK), consumer discretionay (XLY), and industrials (XLI).
In review of my global compass the three best performers for the week were Asia ex Japan (AXJL), emerging markets (EEM) and metals (CEF). For the quarter the three best performers were Japan (EWJ), S&P Mid Caps (MDY), and S&P 500 (SPY). Year-to-date the three best performing have been emerging markets (EEM), Asia ex Japan (AXJL), and Japan (EWJ).
A good number of my mutual funds have now paid their year end capital gains ... and, with this, I am sitting on some excess cash as I take most fund distributions in cash. My worst performing equity sleeve thus far this year has been my small/mid cap sleeve with a year-to-date return of 12.8%. With this, I did some equity buying in this sleeve, this week, and raised it's weighting in the growth area of my portfolio. I'm thinking the smids should have a better year in 2018.
Currently, year-to-date my portfolio's investment returns have been 13.9% and in comparison the Lipper Balance Index is up the same (13.9%) while a static 50/50 Index allocation that I track is up 11.8% and a professional run 50/50 adjustable mix Index fund is up 12.4%. My portfolio's allocation mix is 50/50 +/- 5% and gets tweaked form time-to-time. According to my equity weighting matrix I am overweight equity by 5% over what the matrix is currently calling for due to a seasonal investment strategy.
With most assets currently being richly valued I remain in my cash build mode; but, doing a little buying around the edges. Thus far in December I have bought some muni's and smids. Looking at putting some money to work in a hybrid fund before year end.
And, so-it-goes ...
Thanks for stopping by and reading.
Have been kicking around some funds for 2018. Between FLPSX or LCEAX. What do you think? I've owned both before. They both have cash....I like that a lot right now. LCEAX lags which could be good for 2018. Also, anybody own MAPIX? I've been thinking about that for more Asia owned it long ago. Also am looking at PSHDX to hold cash that will do better than money markets.
God bless
the Pudd