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Old Skeet's month and year ending barometer report.
Old Skeet's market barometer follows the S&P 500 Index and it's major sectors using etf's as proxies and pulls data from certain feeds that produce readings that are compiled and scored into a barometer reading.
At the beginning of the month the barometer opened with a reading of 140 (overvalued) and closed the month with a reading of 138 (overbought). At the beginning of 2017 the barometer had a reading of 147 (fair value). The high reading on the barometer took place during the last two weeks of August and first two weeks of September with readings around the 152/153 range (undervalue). The low reading on the barometer took place during the third week of October with a reading of 132 (overbought). Their were no oversold readings recorded during the year for the Index. Generally, a higher barometer reading indicates more investment value in the Index over a lower reading. In addition, the barometer drives an equity weighting matrix that I use to assist me in setting my equity allocation within certain ranges. Currently, I am overweight equities at this time by about 5% due to a seasonal investment strategy over what the matrix is calling for.
The earnings feed will be advanced with the beginning of the next report. Currently, I am finding only one sector that scores undervalued at this time and that is utilities (XLU). All the other sectors are scored at fair value and above.
My 2018 S&P 500 Compass is equally weighted and is comprised of the following etf's. They are XLB, XLE, XLF, XLI, XLK, XLP, XLRE, XLU, XLV, XLY & EQL (reconfigured annually).
My 2018 Global Balanced Compass is weighted stock side at 60% with holdings being AXJL (5%), EEM (5%), EWJ (5%), GSP (5%), IEV (10%) & VTI (30%) and weighted bond side at 40% with holdings being AGG (20%), CWB (5%) & SHV (15%) (reconfigured annually). In addition, it holds VT as it's bogey and representative of global stocks as a whole.
In the next post I'll write about my use of my lead dog investment strategy. Should there not be a Buy Sell Ponder thread opened to start the new year then I'll continue postings with the return of the Markets & More thread on Friday evening January 5th.
Currently, Old_Skeet remains in a cash build mode within my mutual fund portfolio; but, has done some buying (with excess cash) around the edges in the month of December adding to my double tax free muni bond fund (income sleeve), added to positions in my small mid cap sleeve (to build it out) and opened a "floor" position in a commodity strategy fund (spiff sleeve). In addition, since I take most of my mutual fund distributions in cash (and with their above average payout this year) I am overweight cash at this time by a couple of percent. Some of this excess cash will be used to meet my 2018 RMD requirement within mine and my wife's self directed IRA accounts. After that, I may do some more buying around the edges and looking to add a position in KCM Macro Trends fund.
Wishing all the very best in the coming year ... and, most of all "Good Investing."
Thanks for stopping by and reading.
Old_Skeet
Please forgive my typos along with some misspelling made this year as I suffer form dyslexia which has become more pronounced in my senior years. This is one of the reasons I passed the Buy, Sell & Ponder thread on to another; but, I have still made post to the thread in hopes of helping to keep it going. It has, thus far, remained a highly viewed thread although the number of comments, by others, seem to be in decline.
Comments
Old Skeet's market barometer follows the S&P 500 Index and it's major sectors using etf's as proxies and pulls data from certain feeds that produce readings that are compiled and scored into a barometer reading.
At the beginning of the month the barometer opened with a reading of 140 (overvalued) and closed the month with a reading of 138 (overbought). At the beginning of 2017 the barometer had a reading of 147 (fair value). The high reading on the barometer took place during the last two weeks of August and first two weeks of September with readings around the 152/153 range (undervalue). The low reading on the barometer took place during the third week of October with a reading of 132 (overbought). Their were no oversold readings recorded during the year for the Index. Generally, a higher barometer reading indicates more investment value in the Index over a lower reading. In addition, the barometer drives an equity weighting matrix that I use to assist me in setting my equity allocation within certain ranges. Currently, I am overweight equities at this time by about 5% due to a seasonal investment strategy over what the matrix is calling for.
The earnings feed will be advanced with the beginning of the next report. Currently, I am finding only one sector that scores undervalued at this time and that is utilities (XLU). All the other sectors are scored at fair value and above.
My 2018 S&P 500 Compass is equally weighted and is comprised of the following etf's. They are XLB, XLE, XLF, XLI, XLK, XLP, XLRE, XLU, XLV, XLY & EQL (reconfigured annually).
My 2018 Global Balanced Compass is weighted stock side at 60% with holdings being AXJL (5%), EEM (5%), EWJ (5%), GSP (5%), IEV (10%) & VTI (30%) and weighted bond side at 40% with holdings being AGG (20%), CWB (5%) & SHV (15%) (reconfigured annually). In addition, it holds VT as it's bogey and representative of global stocks as a whole.
In the next post I'll write about my use of my lead dog investment strategy. Should there not be a Buy Sell Ponder thread opened to start the new year then I'll continue postings with the return of the Markets & More thread on Friday evening January 5th.
Currently, Old_Skeet remains in a cash build mode within my mutual fund portfolio; but, has done some buying (with excess cash) around the edges in the month of December adding to my double tax free muni bond fund (income sleeve), added to positions in my small mid cap sleeve (to build it out) and opened a "floor" position in a commodity strategy fund (spiff sleeve). In addition, since I take most of my mutual fund distributions in cash (and with their above average payout this year) I am overweight cash at this time by a couple of percent. Some of this excess cash will be used to meet my 2018 RMD requirement within mine and my wife's self directed IRA accounts. After that, I may do some more buying around the edges and looking to add a position in KCM Macro Trends fund.
Wishing all the very best in the coming year ... and, most of all "Good Investing."
Thanks for stopping by and reading.
Old_Skeet
Please forgive my typos along with some misspelling made this year as I suffer form dyslexia which has become more pronounced in my senior years. This is one of the reasons I passed the Buy, Sell & Ponder thread on to another; but, I have still made post to the thread in hopes of helping to keep it going. It has, thus far, remained a highly viewed thread although the number of comments, by others, seem to be in decline.