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War Coming?

edited July 2017 in Off-Topic
The United States cautioned on Wednesday it was ready to use force if need be to stop North Korea's nuclear missile program but said it preferred global diplomatic action against Pyongyang for defying world powers by test launching a ballistic missile that could hit Alaska.


  • I was talking about this w/my trainer @ the gym this morning. Given everything else that the WH is facing at home (ie, Russia probes) our consensus was that launching anything against NK would reek of a 'Wag The Dog' scenario right now --- ie, meant to distract media/public attention from domestic problems to foreign ones.
  • Recall, the 'war' never ended, as no peace agreement was ever signed. Come to think, it wasn't a (declared) 'war', but a police action. So its been an "un-peace" to an "un-war"...

    That said, were hostilies to re-commence, investment implications?...

    Negative/bearish for..
    - S. Korean equities, bonds, currencies.
    -Asian markets generally.
    -EM markets generally (Asia is ~ 2/3 of EM equities)
    -US stocks would be hit. US Tech might be especially hard hit -- given fear of supply-chain disruptions arising from hostilities.
    -Airline stocks

    - 'Safety trades' (USD, AU, Treasurys)
    - Oil (possibly)
  • such would be horrible; diplomacy and pressure of some sort are the only way

  • @Edmund: Good list. Speaking of which, NBR/CNBC did a spot tonight espousing the bullish benefits of a Korean conflict on .... wait for it ... defense stocks!

  • Anyone have a thought as to who is driving our foreign policy? I really don't have a clue.
  • Why hasn't there already been a coup in that country? Cripes sake. I dunno why they all haven't killed that childish nutjob--- and EATEN him.
  • Anyone have a thought as to who is driving our foreign policy? I really don't have a clue.

    @PRESSmUP- Neither does the White House.
  • @MFO Members: War Coming?, No !, but I can tell you this. Nikki Haley was a little pissed off that she had to work on the 4th !

  • @Ted - yeah, and she (rightly) got raked over the coals on social media for whining about having to do her job. Did she think being US rep to the UN was a 9-5 M-F gig only?

    @Crash - wonderful things, dictatorships & police states. :(
    Ted said:

    @MFO Members: War Coming?, No !, but I can tell you this. Nikki Haley was a little pissed off that she had to work on the 4th !

  • Where is our Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson amid of all this?

    @rforno, I agree that NK is good distraction from issues at home.
  • edited July 2017
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  • edited July 2017
    @Maurice- I just mentioned to my wife that it's not fair to lay this one on Trump... he inherited the situation. No good choices it seems to me, never has been. I wouldn't bet that NK would even listen to China.

    Add: Seems to me though that by threatening "severe actions" Trump is possibly setting himself up for a repeat of Obama's infamous "red line". I believe that the only "severe action" that would even slow down NK would be either an invasion or a major bombing of their military/ICBM/atomic facilities. And good luck on either of those options. (I guess we can get along without South Korea and Japan, but they probably won't see it that way.)
  • edited August 2017
    Is a U.S. President preparing to annihilate hundreds of thousands of humans half way around the world because of some nut-job dictator's rhetoric?

    Here's what he said: "North Korea best not make any more threats to the United States," Trump told reporters, speaking slowly and deliberately with his arms crossed in front of him. "They will be met with fire and fury like the world has never seen."

    Here's what the world has already seen: Two relatively small A-Bombs dropped on two Japanese cities in August 1945:

    (Wikipedia): "Within the first two to four months ... the acute effects of the atomic bombings had killed 90,000–146,000 people in Hiroshima and 39,000–80,000 in Nagasaki; roughly half of the deaths in each city occurred on the first day. During the following months, large numbers died from the effect of burns, radiation sickness, and other injuries, compounded by illness and malnutrition. In both cities, most of the dead were civilians, although Hiroshima had a sizable military garrison."

    (Excerpt - John Hersey's Hiroshima): "The eyebrows of some were burned off and skin hung from their faces and hands. Others, because of pain, held their arms up as if carrying something in both hands. Some were vomiting as they walked. Many were naked or in shreds of clothing. On some undressed bodies, the burns had made patterns—of undershirt straps and suspenders and, on the skin of some women (since white repelled the heat from the bomb and dark clothes absorbed it and conducted it to the skin), the shapes of flowers they had had on their kimonos. Many, although injured themselves, supported relatives who were worse off.”

    (The Telegraph - "Why Hiroshima Now Matters More Than Ever" - Review by Eric Schlosser): "Hiroshima is full of haunting moments and imagery: a perfectly mundane morning in a big city interrupted, without any warning, by a bright white flash; familiar streets and homes turned to ruin in an instant; voices crying out from the rubble; the severely wounded politely asking for assistance; a verdant city park turned into a scene from Hieronymus Bosch; a surgeon in a 600-bed hospital besieged by 10,000 people, bandaging wounds like an automaton. But the book is much more than a catalogue of the grotesque. It is a page-turner, a true story that continually defies belief."
  • UPDATE, Per the Wall Street Journal: (5:55 PM, EST)

    North Korea Makes Rare Explicit, Specific Threat on Guam: North Korean Military “Carefully Examining” Operational Plan to Launch Missiles at Guam

    Kim Jong Ordered Guam Plan After U.S. Air Force Flyover- Operational Plan “To Be Soon Reported to the Supreme Command”

    If Carried Out, U.S. Will Be “First To Experience the Might of the Strategic Weapons of the DPRK”—North Korea

    North Korea Urges U.S. Not to “Regret Today in the Future”

    OK, both of these nutjobs have lost it. NOW WHAT???
  • Add, from WSJ, 6:41PM, EST:

    North Korea Threat Comes After Trump Vows ‘Fire and Fury’... North Korea ‘carefully examining’ plan to launch missiles at Guam

    As tensions rose, a senior Trump administration official said Tuesday that Washington shouldn’t assume it will be able to contain a North Korea with nuclear-armed intercontinental ballistic missiles through traditional deterrence methods.

    “We are not going to allow North Korea to hold American cities hostage,” the official said.
  • Need to hear (and I think we will, or at least see their influence) from the smart word-oriented people around the prez*, not his bellicose self.
  • edited August 2017
    T.R. - Speak softly, but carry a big stick. Everyone knows the U.S. has long possessed a very large stick (not so sure about Trump). So what's missing in all of this is the speak softly part.

    For a self-renowned negotiator, comments like that make no sense. The last thing a good negotiator wants to do, I'd think, is to box yourself into a tight corner.

  • Where is Dennis Rodman when we need him?
  • Hey thar PopTart... I've got the franchise on one-liners here!

  • We have time. 2025.
  • @ OJ - Sorry, I couldn't resist it! : )
  • @Old_Joe and @PopTart
    OJ, I'll be in his town on Friday. Do you suggest that I have a "chat" with him about respecting the "elders"? Nothing as drastic as "Godfather" stuff, though.
  • Nah, he's a good kid... I was just giving him a little friendly harassment.
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  • edited August 2017
    I have great respect for former Admiral Mike Mullen. A straight shooter if ever there was one. He appeared on Meet the Press Sunday and voiced concerns similar to some that I voiced a few days ago. (Read or view the Mullen interview for yourself.)

    My own thoughts: Now that we've smashed all the fine china against the wall and otherwise trashed the kitchen in anger, where do we go from here? (Mullen calls it a lack of maneuver space ).
  • Expect more of this talk. According to Rasmussen/Fox, which is all he cares about, Trump's approval rating has risen six points since he started threatening nuclear war.
  • edited August 2017
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  • zerohedge "took" this directly from WaPo.
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