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Open Thread: What Are You Buying/Selling/Considering
No recent USA buys- mutual funds or stocks. Added to OAKIX and SFGIX at beginning of the year. Sold WAEMX and bought GPEOX. For the short term, risky, mad, contrarian, gambling, keep things interesting money - researching junior silver, rare earth, and uranium miners. For the margin of safety, long term stocks continuing to look at small/mid cap companies that should benefit from low input natural gas prices and/or the re-industrialization of America.
We have a smallish portfolio with a long horizon so I cut down fund positions today from 8 to 6 in order to get more out of my savings:
Gone are MAINX, ARTWX and SFGIX. Proceeds went into starting GPROX and increasing MAPIX to 15% each. SFGIX will probably replace MACSX in fiancee's IRA of balanced funds.
Increased DODWX and PRBLX to 25% each. Considering changing PRBLX to VIG.
Bonds down to 10% with only DODIX. Considering going lower or eliminating for time being.
10% position in VVPSX remains unchanged, though eye is on BIAUX and FLPSX.
Also considering starter positions in MLPI and XBI or another biotech fund, though might wait for correction.
Wanted to do same with AA but hated selling anything else in portfolio.
Current funds: DODGX, FAAFX, SIGIX, WBMIX.
Current stocks: AA, BAC, JBSS, SCHN, SENEA.
All the new stuff I have my eye on just keeps going up. Like HCP, $35-36 seems be solid floor, likely due to strong dividend. With XRX, it's $10.
Except maybe energy. Looking to jump back in. Had early success with HES and COP (thank you Scott), but so far I've not had success in sector. Maybe when oil drops below $80? And, GE. Longer term, I like it and may get back in if drops a bit more. Finally, COF. Perhaps on today's dip.
Shares in Glencore Xstrata plc (LON:GLEN) have risen today following media reports a Chinese consortium is close to buying the company’s Las Bambas copper mine in Peru.
Glencore’s share price was up 3.29 percent at 329.95p as of 13:46 UTC, outperforming a 0.08 percent rise in the benchmark FTSE 100 index and valuing the diversified natural resource company at £43.76 billion.
According to the Wall Street Journal, a group comprising affiliates of state-controlled China Minmetals Corp., Citic Group Corp. and Guoxin Group is the only bidder currently left in an auction that Glencore had agreed to run to win China's approval for its takeover of Xstrata last year. Quoting insiders, the WSJ yesterday reported that the Chinese tie-up could buy the massive Las Bambas mine for $5 billion (£3 billion) or more.
Will look at SWAY, the upcoming spin-off from STWD. Key question is whether it will behave more like RESI or like SBY? May also buy some Berkshire Hathaway..B class shares, in case you were wondering. Otherwise, most of the other stuff is way above my target entry points.
Wrestling with whether to increase investments in WAFMX/THDIX and VGPMX? Both beaten down sectors; but, particularly emerging mkts, could be vulnerable to big capital outflows as the USD strengthens.
Reply to @Charles: Thanks - yeah, it's an interesting development and sees China continuing to buy up resources. Glencore has been disappointing, as I think has been a lot of similar plays over the last year or two. The BHP's and Vale's of the world haven't exactly been doing well.
However, I like Glencore's management, incredible array of assets (which now include the assets of mining giant Xstrata and much of large grain handler Viterra) and legendary commodity trading operation.
I've often called the company something Mr. Burns from "The Simpsons" would own (socially responsible it is not), but I'm actually considering adding a little to the position if a good opportunity comes up, although there are other things higher on the shopping list. It is a long-term position.
The "pre-story" behind the company, profiled in "King of Oil: The Secret Lives of Marc Rich", is a fascinating read that plays out like a cross between Goldman Sachs, the Godfather and a spy novel.
"In the world of physical trading -- buying, transporting and selling the basic stuff the world needs -- Glencore is omnipresent and controversial, just as Goldman is in banking. Bigger than Nestle, Novartis and UBS in terms of revenues, Glencore's network of 2,000 traders, lawyers, accountants and other staff in 40 countries gives it real-time market and political intelligence on everything from oil markets in Central Asia to what sugar's doing in southeast Asia. Young, arrogant, and often brilliant, its staff dominate their market. The firm's top executives have forged alliances with Russian oligarchs and well-connected African mining magnates. Like Goldman, Glencore uses its considerable heft to extract the best possible terms in every deal it does.
Bought GPEOX and VTR. Added to CSX today on the dip. Bought XYL (Xylem). Added to MAPIX. Considering adding FCX after the CEO recently waived his entire salary for stock in the company. Almost entirely out of bonds and moving most of that money into WBMRX.
* Beefed up VEUSX for more lg cap Europe. * Put in 2nd half of a position in long-short PMHIX; it's now my largest stock holding. * Bought half a position in BBB muni fund VWALX. * Moved $ from SFGIX (a lot) and MAPIX (a little) to a new position in EM allocation fund TGMEX.
Nothing in core portfolio. In play money portfolio, got stopped out of short Gold (GLL) and short Treasuries (TBT) last week. Started new positions short China (FXP) and short EM (EEV) this week. Still holding short Yen (YCS), long tech (QLD) and long S&P (SSO).
Reply to @Heathbob: Also added to my CSX yesterday. Keeping an eye on ARII as well, as existing crude oil tankers may have to be upgraded or replaced. Added a little ARII today, may add some more next week.
I too have been watching VWALX as well as VWIUX. I like the BBB rating in VWALX compared to A in VWIUX, but I am a bit concerned with the 7.3 year duration in VWALX. Two questions:
1. Do you have any concern with the duration on VWALX?
Reply to @scott: Good deal. Yeah, front load is in prospectus @4.5%. I believe up to $50K. Schwab too charges the load. But they have $100K limit for institutional shares versus $5M in the prospectus, which is good for 401K investors.
Bought WDHYX and PRFRX last week. This week bought PRFHX.
Leery about adding to equity funds right now. I'll wait for the inevitiable correction I'm assuming will come some time this year.
Someone mentioned beaten down sectors. I don't think that applies to anything right now except maybe miners, and I've told myself not to play in the game.
Reply to @MikeM: Sounds good to me. Bonds are on a roll in 2014 especially the munis. Seems like the fervor for being in equity funds has really picked up on this board.
#1, a little, but fund flows have turned, equities aren't cheap, core bonds (at least short term) seem to be returning to more normal correlations, and pressure if the 'recovery' continues may be as much at the short end of the curve as the long end. I also reserve the right to (a) bail entirely, (b) shift to intermediate munis (VWIUX, etc.), or (c) shift the $ to taxable bonds if that route continues to work and munis don't. Also, I've owned VWALX off & on for 10 years or so and have a fair bit of confidence in the way it's been run.
#2, I have a target size for this position if all goes well, and I've bought half of it at this point. I prefer to scale into a new position, especially one based on a possible turn in an asset like munis now.
By the way, VWALX is traditionally ~ BBB as an overall rating, but it's heavy in A and light in BBB at the moment (per Vanguard). I was also debating buying some HYD, which plays in very junky muni-land, but decided on the more conservative option for now.
I'm pretty much on the same page as MikeM below, & I like PRFHX too, except for the 90 day redemption fee. If you're ok with that kind of fee, that'd be a good fund to look at -- junkier than VWALX, but not nearly as junky as the average HY muni fund.
Just kept a promise to myself, taking two-thirds of the profit from MSCFX Mairs & Power Small-cap and feeding it to MAPOX Mairs & Power Balanced. Took profit from TRAMX and fed it to PRWCX. Watching and waiting for SFGIX to do something. It's up for me, but it has sat still for months and months. I see I've finally broke even again at this point with DLFNX.
Mobius predicts Nigeria will outperform. Over the years, Mobius seems to me to be always a day late or just wrong. Anyhow, I'm back down to the sum I started with in investing in Frontier Markets via TRAMX. Letting that ride, hoping Oliver Bell (Fund Manager) continues to get it right.
Gave lots of haircuts in the final month of an unbelievable 2013....adding to CMNIX for (relative) safety, and to O for a beaten down cash-generating machine in an IRA. Other than that, just waiting around for the pullback.
Comments
Gone are MAINX, ARTWX and SFGIX. Proceeds went into starting GPROX and increasing MAPIX to 15% each. SFGIX will probably replace MACSX in fiancee's IRA of balanced funds.
Increased DODWX and PRBLX to 25% each. Considering changing PRBLX to VIG.
Bonds down to 10% with only DODIX. Considering going lower or eliminating for time being.
10% position in VVPSX remains unchanged, though eye is on BIAUX and FLPSX.
Also considering starter positions in MLPI and XBI or another biotech fund, though might wait for correction.
Wanted to do same with AA but hated selling anything else in portfolio.
Current funds: DODGX, FAAFX, SIGIX, WBMIX.
Current stocks: AA, BAC, JBSS, SCHN, SENEA.
All the new stuff I have my eye on just keeps going up
Except maybe energy. Looking to jump back in. Had early success with HES and COP (thank you Scott), but so far I've not had success in sector. Maybe when oil drops below $80? And, GE. Longer term, I like it and may get back in if drops a bit more. Finally, COF. Perhaps on today's dip.
I trust you are following this...
Shares in Glencore Xstrata plc (LON:GLEN) have risen today following media reports a Chinese consortium is close to buying the company’s Las Bambas copper mine in Peru.
Glencore’s share price was up 3.29 percent at 329.95p as of 13:46 UTC, outperforming a 0.08 percent rise in the benchmark FTSE 100 index and valuing the diversified natural resource company at £43.76 billion.
According to the Wall Street Journal, a group comprising affiliates of state-controlled China Minmetals Corp., Citic Group Corp. and Guoxin Group is the only bidder currently left in an auction that Glencore had agreed to run to win China's approval for its takeover of Xstrata last year. Quoting insiders, the WSJ yesterday reported that the Chinese tie-up could buy the massive Las Bambas mine for $5 billion (£3 billion) or more.
Wrestling with whether to increase investments in WAFMX/THDIX and VGPMX? Both beaten down sectors; but, particularly emerging mkts, could be vulnerable to big capital outflows as the USD strengthens.
However, I like Glencore's management, incredible array of assets (which now include the assets of mining giant Xstrata and much of large grain handler Viterra) and legendary commodity trading operation.
I've often called the company something Mr. Burns from "The Simpsons" would own (socially responsible it is not), but I'm actually considering adding a little to the position if a good opportunity comes up, although there are other things higher on the shopping list. It is a long-term position.
The "pre-story" behind the company, profiled in "King of Oil: The Secret Lives of Marc Rich", is a fascinating read that plays out like a cross between Goldman Sachs, the Godfather and a spy novel.
"In the world of physical trading -- buying, transporting and selling the basic stuff the world needs -- Glencore is omnipresent and controversial, just as Goldman is in banking. Bigger than Nestle, Novartis and UBS in terms of revenues, Glencore's network of 2,000 traders, lawyers, accountants and other staff in 40 countries gives it real-time market and political intelligence on everything from oil markets in Central Asia to what sugar's doing in southeast Asia. Young, arrogant, and often brilliant, its staff dominate their market. The firm's top executives have forged alliances with Russian oligarchs and well-connected African mining magnates. Like Goldman, Glencore uses its considerable heft to extract the best possible terms in every deal it does.
Some might add that Glencore also fits the description that Rolling Stone magazine gave to Goldman: "a great vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity". (http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/25/us-glencore-idUSTRE71O1DC20110225)
* Put in 2nd half of a position in long-short PMHIX; it's now my largest stock holding.
* Bought half a position in BBB muni fund VWALX.
* Moved $ from SFGIX (a lot) and MAPIX (a little) to a new position in EM allocation fund TGMEX.
USAGX (PM Miners)
KWEB (Chinese Internet)
BBRY (The dawn of dead money)
Hi AndyJ,
I too have been watching VWALX as well as VWIUX. I like the BBB rating in VWALX compared to A in VWIUX, but I am a bit concerned with the 7.3 year duration in VWALX. Two questions:
1. Do you have any concern with the duration on VWALX?
2. What do you mean by "half a position"?
Thanks.
Mona
Leery about adding to equity funds right now. I'll wait for the inevitiable correction I'm assuming will come some time this year.
Someone mentioned beaten down sectors. I don't think that applies to anything right now except maybe miners, and I've told myself not to play in the game.
Seems like the fervor for being in equity funds has really picked up on this board.
#1, a little, but fund flows have turned, equities aren't cheap, core bonds (at least short term) seem to be returning to more normal correlations, and pressure if the 'recovery' continues may be as much at the short end of the curve as the long end. I also reserve the right to (a) bail entirely, (b) shift to intermediate munis (VWIUX, etc.), or (c) shift the $ to taxable bonds if that route continues to work and munis don't. Also, I've owned VWALX off & on for 10 years or so and have a fair bit of confidence in the way it's been run.
#2, I have a target size for this position if all goes well, and I've bought half of it at this point. I prefer to scale into a new position, especially one based on a possible turn in an asset like munis now.
By the way, VWALX is traditionally ~ BBB as an overall rating, but it's heavy in A and light in BBB at the moment (per Vanguard). I was also debating buying some HYD, which plays in very junky muni-land, but decided on the more conservative option for now.
I'm pretty much on the same page as MikeM below, & I like PRFHX too, except for the 90 day redemption fee. If you're ok with that kind of fee, that'd be a good fund to look at -- junkier than VWALX, but not nearly as junky as the average HY muni fund.
Mobius predicts Nigeria will outperform. Over the years, Mobius seems to me to be always a day late or just wrong. Anyhow, I'm back down to the sum I started with in investing in Frontier Markets via TRAMX. Letting that ride, hoping Oliver Bell (Fund Manager) continues to get it right.