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Open Thread: What Funds Are You Buying/Selling/Pondering
I am at 17-18% in cash due to rolling over my 401k to IRA. I made some changes during recent downturn but should have been more agressive then. Don't know what to do now.
Reply to @mrc70: Buy. Not looking to sell anything, although what I am looking at I'm looking to hold for a long while. Additionally, buying would really be "a little bit added here, a little bit there."
An old axiom says: Reaching for yield is unwise. Generally agree. However, have recently shifted small portion of cash into PRIPX & PRFHX. First is a TIPS fund. Second's a high yield muni. Looking to play a near term bounce in bonds. Would reduce risk by skimming off early gains before bonds head the other way. There's a 90-day wait on the muni because of early redemption fee. A bit risky - but I guess watching cash rot for 3-4 years in ultra-shorts & MM does weird things to your brain:-)
Reply to @scott: Brazil:A Contrarian Play! FROM SEEKING ALPHA XOM Libra oil auction shaping up as a major disappointment for Brazil More on Brazil's planned auction of the Libra oil prospect: Only 11 companies registered to participate - far fewer than the expected 40 - and some of the biggest firms backed out, including Exxon (XOM), Chevron (CVX) and BP (earlier).Asian state-owned companies dominate the list of participants: India's ONGC, Malaysia's Petronas, Colombia's Ecopetrol (EC), China's Cnooc (CEO) and China National Petroleum (PTR); China's Sinopec (SNP) will take part through joint ventures with Brazilian units of Spain's Repsol (REPYY.PK, REPYF.PK) and Portugal's Galp Energia (GLPEF.PK).Also taking part: Shell (RDS.A, RDS.B), Total (TOT) and Mitsui (MITSY.PK, MITSF.PK).Analysts blame the lack of interest on new rules drawn up by Brazil's government that place development and profits under greater state control; too many companies don't want "the trouble of dealing with Petrobras (PBR) and the government. You can get good oil assets elsewhere without that."ETFs: EWZ, BRF, EWZS, BRAF, BRXX, UBR, BZQ, BRAZ, BRAQ, BRZS, BRZU. If not the biggest,probably the tallest REIT ! http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/19/us-empirestaterealtytrust-brief-idUSBRE98I14H20130919?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews
I recently reduced by exposure in the income area of my portfolio by 5% (from 30% to 25%) and raised my allocation to equities by 5% (from 40% to 45%) with alternatives remaining at 10% along with cash at 20%. Currently, I am heavy cash and light equities from these targets. I am in the process of working my way towards my equity target at a measured pace as I am finding under valued and/or oversold equity assets, I’ll buy a little. I hope to be at my target allocation by the end of October.
I have been recently adding to my European and Emerging Market equity positions along with some select growth and income funds that are paying good dividends. These dividend paying funds hold many of the current undervalued and oversold sectors of the S&P 500 Index. They are real estate, utilities, consumer staples, health care and telecom. In buying these type funds, I feel I will be getting better value with my investable dollars rather than chasing the hotter assets.
I am thinking that we will be getting a pull back in the market before Halloween but there is no certainty on this and this is why I am working my way towards my equity target allocation at a measured pace. I do think that we will have a fall rally that will hopefully take the S&P 500 Index to the 1770, or better, range for about a five percent increase from the current level, lets call it 1690 as of September 13th. If we get much above this level I'll put my buying on hold until a good dip or pull back takes place. Remember the budget talks are soon begin in Washington.
By investing in the undervalued and oversold assets it is my belief that greater upside can be had in them over the fully & over valued and overbought assets. Anyway, that is my thinking.
Worked up to full positions in short-intermediate junk HYS and HYLD to go with the very staid OSTIX in that department, and slipped back into Pimco Income at a lucky time and caught some bounce. Otherwise, nada; still have ~ 25% in stable value and cash.
Like you probably, I was disappointed with Fed's decision yesterday. First time in a while I started to think maybe things getting a little out of hand. Fed had chance to start normalizing but did not seize it. Maybe next month.
So, took some money off the table today after strong past month, where I have been heavy BAC, HES, SCHN, GE in equities and FAAFX, SIGIX, DODGX in funds.
One day you'll have to tell me why GE seems so under appreciated.
Have been out of bonds since June, except for AQRIX, which I finally let go in August, disappointed.
Will probably be looking to 3Q earnings before making next move, unless things head south dramatically.
Trend is your friend. No changes to my buy-and-hold portion, except some small, regular DCA in WAFMX. Momentum portfolio is in XLV, IWO, QQQ, XLY. The only recent change was replacement of XLF by QQQ last week.
"Like you probably, I was disappointed with Fed's decision yesterday."
You know, not really actually. I want to see this story really play out. Maybe some Yellen negative interest rates like what she wished for a couple of years ago will get what the Fed is looking for in terms of activity (as Marc Faber noted the other day, Yellen makes Bernanke look like a hawk.)
In terms of things being out-of-hand, I think what is fascinating is that if the Fed was worried about the debt debate as part of their reasoning, things happen. It sucks. You can't avoid everything with QE. We continue to try to buy the reality we'd like while making no plans for the future we'd hope for in this country. There's always going to be something, we can't react to it with QE again and again. Or will we? The market is clearly addicted and moreso every month that passes.
The market will continue to do well, the real economy isn't seeing the same effect. I think housing is doing well enough and it's probably bottomed, but the profile of who is buying and how they are buying is different than it has been in the past, including far less first time buyers, far more cash buyers and I think probably far more investors both from US (how many houses did Blackstone buy?) and overseas. You're seeing real declines in mortgage activity (something like 60% of purchases this year have been cash only, in 2005-2007 it was something like 15-20%) when rates move much above 4.5%.
Are things awful? No, but the amount of stimulus it has taken to get us to this rather so-so level of activity is astonishing and the visible fragility of it this far along - another Fed downgrade of activity, oops can't taper things still aren't good enough - should be concerning (both from the standpoint of economic activity and how long easy monetary policy will really be around.) People can certainly question the effectiveness of QE (and actually sorta were at the press conference, which was surprising), but as long as this government is completely unproductive, it appears to be the only plan.
As for activity, the Fed's forecast for 2013 has consistently gone down (chart below.) So their prediction for 2013 GDP is about half of what they predicted 2013 would be in 2011.
I think GE is underappreciated from the standpoint of 1 - people don't like Immelt. 2 - people still have the memories of how GE handled 2008 (and not even GE Capital, but there was one particular weekend where GE said, "We're not cutting the dividend" on Friday and essentially did the following Monday) and 3. I don't think people still yet appreciate the moves that have been made, such as dumping NBC/Univ to Comcast.
I've been doing a lot of looking around for additional ideas, particularly foreign/EM and maybe even some more things in Canada. However, may just end up adding here-and-there to things I already own.
I remain interested in Conagra if it really dumps towards $30, or especially in the upper $20's. Would just get it and sit on it for a long while.
How this time period ends no one knows, but I think you have to remain invested at a level you're comfortable with and if we get an issue from government debate in the next few months, I think it remains a buying opportunity. I still think people cannot ignore the underlying risks that still exist, but I am more concerned about the long-term, culmulative effect of the broken nature of the political system in this country than I am any sort-term effects of the debt debate over the next couple months (and as I noted in the other thread, I really am not overly concerned about the debt debate - there will be some political chess played, but you have a mentality that more debt doesn't matter and if it does, it'll be some other politician's problem.)
Whitebox partner and global head of event trading on CNBC this morning as I write this. "Once you engage in QE, it might be the case that you can never disengage from QE. They are not going to allow official price discovery, but the market will at some point impose that on them." Feels that global sov interest rates will eventually get "price discovery" due to market forces and that will be disorderly.
BTW, I'm actually thinking WBMIX is a strong "one-fund-for-a-lifetime" candidate, at least for moderate investors. I do not support their loaded share class (indefensible) or their 12b-1 fees. Whitebox will argue that its MF fees are cheap compared to their hedge fund fees, but that argument seems to ring more hollow every day. They should do themselves and investors a favor: offer single class, implement reasonable minimums, no load, no 12b-1, and reduce ER as AUM rises. Blowing in the wind, I know...but maybe not.
Reply to @scott: Good synopsis Scott. I haven't kept up with the mortgage situation because I'm not in the market but those are some interesting numbers. Since the middle class is ebbing toward being on the way out I have to wonder who these investment groups think they are going to sell and/or rent these homes to eventually.
Good thoughts on GE as well. I own a handful already and am not inclined to add anymore. As I said the last few times this thread has floated the KM group is really all that interests me currently but I'm borderline overweighted already. Still.....
The BRIC's interest me but I can't put my finger on the best way to play them. Like you I've become somewhat sedate with my portfolio. I might have to dig out my short term traders hat and do a little more looking.
My view is really that it reached a point where there the housing market simply ran out of sellers. Inventory dried up and it went the other way. Every area is different and every area is going to move at a different pace. There are areas that are going to take years, while I think there are other areas that have come back heavily and you can have these two different scenarios 15-20 minutes from each other.
Take out the view of the larger economy, take out all the discussion of problems (student loans keeping younger generations from buying, all manner of other issues), everything I've heard and seen about the mortgage process is difficult. Not that I'm saying it shouldn't be, but I think as easy as it was in 2005-2007, it has clearly swung the other way. I've heard a number of stories, but I think maybe that is - to some degree - why you've seen as much in the way of cash sales.
I'll say this: I do think the real estate market did see a bottom, but it's so entirely dependent on the particular area.
The one thing that I would say is a negative are all these overbuilt subdivisions where people have to drive to everything. A place where you have to drive to do absolutely anything in an age of $100+ oil doesn't seem very appealing. I think it's location location location, maybe more now then ever before.
One thing that has shocked me is rents. I completely was under the belief that rents would get to a point where things would tip towards buying, but I actually don't think it was high rents that tipped people towards buying as much as it was inventory drying up. Rents still seem to be ramping higher. It does not feel sustainable and probably isn't, but can go on longer than expected. I actually don't think that rental companies in major cities (EQR, AVB) are maybe not that bad an option over a long term - I don't know how much higher rents can go, but space is constrained in major cities and demand continues to seem to be there.
I think GE is becoming a tighter and more focused company. They are a play on a lot of interesting themes, but I think it may not be appreciated fully until the evolution has already happened and by that time it's ... already happened. People who don't like Immelt (who isn't "Ballmer-disliked", but is disliked) or who did not like how GE handled 2008 are going to look at it just continue to stay away while the company improves in the meanwhile.
I like boring (in comparison) EM plays that pay a dividend. I own Ambev (ABV) for example. I think the emerging markets consumer remains an interesting long-term story, I think you have to get paid to wait - whether it be the Matthews div funds or FEO or other options. Another "boring" name I like is Singapore Telecom, which pays about a 4.4% yield and has stakes in a number of other Asian telecom co's as well as a venture capital subsidiary, Singtel Innov8 (http://innov8.singtel.com/portfolio.html), which has invested in companies in both Asia and the rest of the world.
I am sorta looking at the Asian banks, but again, nothing really interesting me that heavily. I wish I hadn't sold Naspers.
Reply to @Charles: Marketfield still takes priority for me personally - I like that fund's global reach and it continues to demonstrate a solid track record. The Pimco L/S fund also continues to have a very good year - a ratherremarkably good year, considering that fund's short and cash levels.
Whitebox, after a somewhat so-so period, has done well. I continue to like all three and you have three funds that have very different and distinct perspectives. Whitebox and Marketfield continue to make specific calls and will not always be right, the funds will not always follow the market, but I think over the long-term, the hope is respectable returns with less risk and not tight correlation to the market.
Cut back 80% of my position in NFRIX. Don't like the behavior of floating rate/bank loan funds albeit it may just be temporary. This is the first year since 04-07 that I've made more in individual equities than bond funds and thanks primarily to NPSP which I continue to add to on 5% dips. Also hold a small position in ETGLX since NPSP is its second largest holding.
Edit: Took a position in DEPO earlier this week. Time will tell how that pans out.
This is the year I left a LOT of money on the table. I had been in ACAD at one time as well as RAD. NPSP is about the only stock I haven't mismanaged (at least yet) albeit in hindsight I should have been even more aggressive. Then again, " should have, could have, would have" makes us all stock market wizards.
Reply to @Kaspa: Switched from XLV to EZU last Friday, after a long time hold (well, long for my momentum portfolio). Switches purely based on price action/volatility, no fundamentals.
Reply to @Ted: yes sir, you know what you are doing since you are indeed a 'guru' here @ MFO. I follow lots of your advise previously. But I am still pretty scare of what's going on but I still have many yrs left - being agressive w/ the 401k/tsp but conservative with the private portfolio.
Comments
I am at 17-18% in cash due to rolling over my 401k to IRA. I made some changes during recent downturn but should have been more agressive then. Don't know what to do now.
probably buy more oil or energy bond - KEG has bond yields ~ 6.7%
http://quicktake.morningstar.com/stocknet/bonds.aspx?symbol=keg
Libra oil auction shaping up as a major disappointment for Brazil
More on Brazil's planned auction of the Libra oil prospect: Only 11 companies registered to participate - far fewer than the expected 40 - and some of the biggest firms backed out, including Exxon (XOM), Chevron (CVX) and BP (earlier).Asian state-owned companies dominate the list of participants: India's ONGC, Malaysia's Petronas, Colombia's Ecopetrol (EC), China's Cnooc (CEO) and China National Petroleum (PTR); China's Sinopec (SNP) will take part through joint ventures with Brazilian units of Spain's Repsol (REPYY.PK, REPYF.PK) and Portugal's Galp Energia (GLPEF.PK).Also taking part: Shell (RDS.A, RDS.B), Total (TOT) and Mitsui (MITSY.PK, MITSF.PK).Analysts blame the lack of interest on new rules drawn up by Brazil's government that place development and profits under greater state control; too many companies don't want "the trouble of dealing with Petrobras (PBR) and the government. You can get good oil assets elsewhere without that."ETFs: EWZ, BRF, EWZS, BRAF, BRXX, UBR, BZQ, BRAZ, BRAQ, BRZS, BRZU.
If not the biggest,probably the tallest REIT !
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/19/us-empirestaterealtytrust-brief-idUSBRE98I14H20130919?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews
I recently reduced by exposure in the income area of my portfolio by 5% (from 30% to 25%) and raised my allocation to equities by 5% (from 40% to 45%) with alternatives remaining at 10% along with cash at 20%. Currently, I am heavy cash and light equities from these targets. I am in the process of working my way towards my equity target at a measured pace as I am finding under valued and/or oversold equity assets, I’ll buy a little. I hope to be at my target allocation by the end of October.
I have been recently adding to my European and Emerging Market equity positions along with some select growth and income funds that are paying good dividends. These dividend paying funds hold many of the current undervalued and oversold sectors of the S&P 500 Index. They are real estate, utilities, consumer staples, health care and telecom. In buying these type funds, I feel I will be getting better value with my investable dollars rather than chasing the hotter assets.
I am thinking that we will be getting a pull back in the market before Halloween but there is no certainty on this and this is why I am working my way towards my equity target allocation at a measured pace. I do think that we will have a fall rally that will hopefully take the S&P 500 Index to the 1770, or better, range for about a five percent increase from the current level, lets call it 1690 as of September 13th. If we get much above this level I'll put my buying on hold until a good dip or pull back takes place. Remember the budget talks are soon begin in Washington.
By investing in the undervalued and oversold assets it is my belief that greater upside can be had in them over the fully & over valued and overbought assets. Anyway, that is my thinking.
Thanks for stopping by.
Skeeter
Glad you have re-engaged with this thread.
Like you probably, I was disappointed with Fed's decision yesterday. First time in a while I started to think maybe things getting a little out of hand. Fed had chance to start normalizing but did not seize it. Maybe next month.
So, took some money off the table today after strong past month, where I have been heavy BAC, HES, SCHN, GE in equities and FAAFX, SIGIX, DODGX in funds.
One day you'll have to tell me why GE seems so under appreciated.
Have been out of bonds since June, except for AQRIX, which I finally let go in August, disappointed.
Will probably be looking to 3Q earnings before making next move, unless things head south dramatically.
Hope all is well.
"Like you probably, I was disappointed with Fed's decision yesterday."
You know, not really actually. I want to see this story really play out. Maybe some Yellen negative interest rates like what she wished for a couple of years ago will get what the Fed is looking for in terms of activity (as Marc Faber noted the other day, Yellen makes Bernanke look like a hawk.)
In terms of things being out-of-hand, I think what is fascinating is that if the Fed was worried about the debt debate as part of their reasoning, things happen. It sucks. You can't avoid everything with QE. We continue to try to buy the reality we'd like while making no plans for the future we'd hope for in this country. There's always going to be something, we can't react to it with QE again and again. Or will we? The market is clearly addicted and moreso every month that passes.
The market will continue to do well, the real economy isn't seeing the same effect. I think housing is doing well enough and it's probably bottomed, but the profile of who is buying and how they are buying is different than it has been in the past, including far less first time buyers, far more cash buyers and I think probably far more investors both from US (how many houses did Blackstone buy?) and overseas. You're seeing real declines in mortgage activity (something like 60% of purchases this year have been cash only, in 2005-2007 it was something like 15-20%) when rates move much above 4.5%.
Are things awful? No, but the amount of stimulus it has taken to get us to this rather so-so level of activity is astonishing and the visible fragility of it this far along - another Fed downgrade of activity, oops can't taper things still aren't good enough - should be concerning (both from the standpoint of economic activity and how long easy monetary policy will really be around.) People can certainly question the effectiveness of QE (and actually sorta were at the press conference, which was surprising), but as long as this government is completely unproductive, it appears to be the only plan.
As for activity, the Fed's forecast for 2013 has consistently gone down (chart below.) So their prediction for 2013 GDP is about half of what they predicted 2013 would be in 2011.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2013/09/Fed forecast.jpg
Chart from original article by Guggenheim CIO Scott Minerd:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1704292-the-feds-about-face
I think GE is underappreciated from the standpoint of 1 - people don't like Immelt. 2 - people still have the memories of how GE handled 2008 (and not even GE Capital, but there was one particular weekend where GE said, "We're not cutting the dividend" on Friday and essentially did the following Monday) and 3. I don't think people still yet appreciate the moves that have been made, such as dumping NBC/Univ to Comcast.
I've been doing a lot of looking around for additional ideas, particularly foreign/EM and maybe even some more things in Canada. However, may just end up adding here-and-there to things I already own.
I remain interested in Conagra if it really dumps towards $30, or especially in the upper $20's. Would just get it and sit on it for a long while.
How this time period ends no one knows, but I think you have to remain invested at a level you're comfortable with and if we get an issue from government debate in the next few months, I think it remains a buying opportunity. I still think people cannot ignore the underlying risks that still exist, but I am more concerned about the long-term, culmulative effect of the broken nature of the political system in this country than I am any sort-term effects of the debt debate over the next couple months (and as I noted in the other thread, I really am not overly concerned about the debt debate - there will be some political chess played, but you have a mentality that more debt doesn't matter and if it does, it'll be some other politician's problem.)
Whitebox partner and global head of event trading on CNBC this morning as I write this. "Once you engage in QE, it might be the case that you can never disengage from QE. They are not going to allow official price discovery, but the market will at some point impose that on them." Feels that global sov interest rates will eventually get "price discovery" due to market forces and that will be disorderly.
BTW, I'm actually thinking WBMIX is a strong "one-fund-for-a-lifetime" candidate, at least for moderate investors. I do not support their loaded share class (indefensible) or their 12b-1 fees. Whitebox will argue that its MF fees are cheap compared to their hedge fund fees, but that argument seems to ring more hollow every day. They should do themselves and investors a favor: offer single class, implement reasonable minimums, no load, no 12b-1, and reduce ER as AUM rises. Blowing in the wind, I know...but maybe not.
Good thoughts on GE as well. I own a handful already and am not inclined to add anymore. As I said the last few times this thread has floated the KM group is really all that interests me currently but I'm borderline overweighted already. Still.....
The BRIC's interest me but I can't put my finger on the best way to play them. Like you I've become somewhat sedate with my portfolio. I might have to dig out my short term traders hat and do a little more looking.
My view is really that it reached a point where there the housing market simply ran out of sellers. Inventory dried up and it went the other way. Every area is different and every area is going to move at a different pace. There are areas that are going to take years, while I think there are other areas that have come back heavily and you can have these two different scenarios 15-20 minutes from each other.
Take out the view of the larger economy, take out all the discussion of problems (student loans keeping younger generations from buying, all manner of other issues), everything I've heard and seen about the mortgage process is difficult. Not that I'm saying it shouldn't be, but I think as easy as it was in 2005-2007, it has clearly swung the other way. I've heard a number of stories, but I think maybe that is - to some degree - why you've seen as much in the way of cash sales.
I'll say this: I do think the real estate market did see a bottom, but it's so entirely dependent on the particular area.
The one thing that I would say is a negative are all these overbuilt subdivisions where people have to drive to everything. A place where you have to drive to do absolutely anything in an age of $100+ oil doesn't seem very appealing. I think it's location location location, maybe more now then ever before.
One thing that has shocked me is rents. I completely was under the belief that rents would get to a point where things would tip towards buying, but I actually don't think it was high rents that tipped people towards buying as much as it was inventory drying up. Rents still seem to be ramping higher. It does not feel sustainable and probably isn't, but can go on longer than expected. I actually don't think that rental companies in major cities (EQR, AVB) are maybe not that bad an option over a long term - I don't know how much higher rents can go, but space is constrained in major cities and demand continues to seem to be there.
I think GE is becoming a tighter and more focused company. They are a play on a lot of interesting themes, but I think it may not be appreciated fully until the evolution has already happened and by that time it's ... already happened. People who don't like Immelt (who isn't "Ballmer-disliked", but is disliked) or who did not like how GE handled 2008 are going to look at it just continue to stay away while the company improves in the meanwhile.
I like boring (in comparison) EM plays that pay a dividend. I own Ambev (ABV) for example. I think the emerging markets consumer remains an interesting long-term story, I think you have to get paid to wait - whether it be the Matthews div funds or FEO or other options. Another "boring" name I like is Singapore Telecom, which pays about a 4.4% yield and has stakes in a number of other Asian telecom co's as well as a venture capital subsidiary, Singtel Innov8 (http://innov8.singtel.com/portfolio.html), which has invested in companies in both Asia and the rest of the world.
I am sorta looking at the Asian banks, but again, nothing really interesting me that heavily. I wish I hadn't sold Naspers.
Both A and I impose a 0.25% 12b-1.
I do not know how much the NTF is costing Whitebox. Nothing unreasonable jumped out at me in the SAI, but I'm an amateur.
So, again: single share class, reasonable minimums, no load, no 12b-1, and reduce ER as AUM rises. These are same traits I want to see in all funds.
Whitebox, after a somewhat so-so period, has done well. I continue to like all three and you have three funds that have very different and distinct perspectives. Whitebox and Marketfield continue to make specific calls and will not always be right, the funds will not always follow the market, but I think over the long-term, the hope is respectable returns with less risk and not tight correlation to the market.
Edit: Took a position in DEPO earlier this week. Time will tell how that pans out.
http://www.amex.com/strProd/prodInf/prospectus/2005/SXN.A.pdf
Regards,
Ted
GLD could be discounted also.
have a good wkend