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EGRIX imo is much riskier than a plain vanilla bond fund due to it's strategy -- long/short, lotsa macro calls, frontier market holdings, FX risk, etc..
It has performed really well with an amazingly low SD with the falling dollar as a tailwind. But that outperformance go forward isn’t pre-ordained. I am a happy holder with a single digit position.
I don't invest based on the future, only based on what works lately. When market conditions change, I change my funds. In 2022, BND and many "safe" bond funds were pretty bad. In the last 15 years, the super safe fund BND made just 2.2% annually which is a dismal performance. I never diversified. EGRIX did well in the last 5 years regardless of the dollar.
EGRIX imo is much riskier than a plain vanilla bond fund due to it's strategy -- long/short, lotsa macro calls, frontier market holdings, FX risk, etc..
It has performed really well with an amazingly low SD with the falling dollar as a tailwind. But that outperformance go forward isn’t pre-ordained. I am a happy holder with a single digit position.
I don't invest based on the future, only based on what works lately. When market conditions change, I change my funds. In 2022, BND and many "safe" bond funds were pretty bad. In the last 15 years, the super safe fund BND made just 2.2% annually which is a dismal performance. I never diversified. EGRIX did well in the last 5 years regardless of the dollar.
What is your point on EGRIX. More ancient history. As recently as this year you said on the other board it wasn’t a fund “for a conservative investor like me”.
@FD1000-Hey there, FD- there's an unanswered question for you over in the Off-Topic section. Lots of folks waiting to hear from you on that. If you can post here, why not over there?
Eaton Vance Glbl Macro Abs Ret Advtg Fd [EGRIX] earns an Above Average Process Pillar rating from Morningstar.
"The leading factor in the rating is the fund's strong long-term risk-adjusted performance. This can be seen in its five-year alpha calculated relative to the category index, which suggests that the managers have shown skill in their allocation of risk. The parent firm's excellent risk-adjusted performance, as shown by its average 10-year Morningstar Rating of 3.3 stars, also influences the rating."
They go on to note 'Average' People and Parent Pillars. Overall a 5 star fund with a Morningstar Medalist Rating of Neutral. Full disclosure, I own EGRIX.
near as i can tell, FD maintains that he doesn't have money in any of the funds that he talks about, including EGRIX. he won't say what he owns/owned until after he's sold it (for a handsome profit, of course, and then let the crowing begin).
M* AI writeups of pillars are IMHO next to useless. For process, when done by human beings ...
Analysts look for strategies with a process distinctive enough to generate standout results in the future. More specifically, analysts seek to understand:
The investment philosophy that underpins the strategy;
The key “edge” of the process as executed by the manager;
Elements that are systematic and repeatable, if any;
The fit of the process with the resources backing the strategy and with the size of the asset base tied to the strategy (including all vehicles across all domiciles);
Whether the process has been consistently applied, as demonstrated by the composition of the portfolio over time;
The risks entailed in the process, from a portfolio-bias point of view and from an ability-to-execute point of view;
The AI writeup above reflects none of this. Nor does any of this reasoning go into how the AI tool calculates the pillar rating.
Attempting to mechanically automate a thought process introduces tremendous complexity, so [Morningstar] opted to build a model that replicates the output of an analyst as faithfully as possible.
IOW what you've got for the EGRIX pillar is a retrospective performance analysis, i.e. a star rating. Unlike the Wizard of Oz, there's no intelligent thought behind this curtain.
near as i can tell, FD maintains that he doesn't have money in any of the funds that he talks about, including EGRIX. he won't say what he owns/owned until after he's sold it (for a handsome profit, of course, and then let the crowing begin).
Yes, FD is definitely the gold standard of credibility. He waits until he’s already pocketed his mysterious profits before revealing what he actually held, and then treats us to one of his classic brag sessions. Truly a model of transparency.
Junkster: What is your point on EGRIX. More ancient history. As recently as this year you said on the other board it wasn’t a fund “for a conservative investor like me”.
FD: You are correct. I said the above in March 2025. Then, bonds lost and then recovered. You just forgot to say that later I posted that I bought EGRIX. When things change, I change too.
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Disclaimer: I owned EGRIX earlier in 2025, and now I have owned EIGMX for several months.
========= "You are describing classic performance chasing"
FD: Absolutely, but I call it trend following. The idea is to catch the trend early, to sell everything to MM when risk is very high, and to switch for better-performing funds.
@FD100 - Have you ever mentioned “trend following” by name in any of your previous posts or recommended the best current trends to chase follow for the benefit of members who read you?
There are successful trend following funds. I have 5-6% so invested . Why anyone would put “all their eggs” in that one basket escapes me. Waiting for a Wiley Coyote moment? Trend following (managed futures) funds invest in a diverse mix of equities, bonds, currencies, commodities, metals, real estate and more. It’s doubtful that whatever you are doing is comparable to what they do.
FD claimed to follow EGRIX for years, but never used it. Or ever mentioned it. He must have changed his outlook on EGRIX.
Feb 19, 2025 at 2:25pm OutOnBond said: "FD1000 - Have you looked at EGRIX? Looks to be on a steady rise with minor volatility."
Feb 20, 2025 at 5:34pm Administrator said: "It's on my lists for years but I never used it. It's a black box and unpredictable. It uses long, short in bonds and currencies around the world. See one year chart and watch volatility in 2024."
@FD100 - Have you ever mentioned “trend following” by name in any of your previous posts or recommended the best current trends to chase follow for the benefit of members who read you?
There are successful trend following funds. I have 5-6% so invested . Why anyone would put “all their eggs” in that one basket escapes me. Waiting for a Wiley Coyote moment? Trend following (managed futures) funds invest in a diverse mix of equities, bonds, currencies, commodities, metals, real estate and more. It’s doubtful that whatever you are doing is comparable to what they do.
I interpreted the trend following comment as switch in and out of mutual funds as a retail investor. Not replication of the investment strategies of the underlying funds. In most cases, that would either be prohibitively expensive or impossible (shorting Coffee futures, Iraqi Dinar anyone?)
@FD100 - Have you ever mentioned “trend following” by name in any of your previous posts or recommended the best current trends to chase follow for the benefit of members who read you?
There are successful trend following funds. I have 5-6% so invested . Why anyone would put “all their eggs” in that one basket escapes me. Waiting for a Wiley Coyote moment? Trend following (managed futures) funds invest in a diverse mix of equities, bonds, currencies, commodities, metals, real estate and more. It’s doubtful that whatever you are doing is comparable to what they do.
stayCalm is correct about trends. I don't use most of what these funds do; it's too complicated and time-consuming. Mine is pretty simple: only long, change funds according to trends, and sell to MM when risk is very high. Black boxes are unreliable. If I use them, it's usually shorter term, and I watch carefully.
Why would I put "all my eggs"? This is based on my LT view that I can only have 2-5 great ideas at any moment. But I also switch quickly too when the time is right. In the last 2-3 years I traded less often and stayed in bond funds that I think can make 8+%. That also works with good timing. A fund with higher SD loses money quicker. A slower fund let me exit a bit later.
Example: I could have made more in 2024, but I stayed in HOSIX/CLOZ a lot more time. In my world it was a perfect fund in 2024 (https://schrts.co/gnvFaMZA)
Why EGRIX and then switch to EIGMX? because after a decline, a more volatile fund would make more.
'''Why EGRIX and then switch to EIGMX? because after a decline, a more volatile fund would make more.""
OR just possibly continue to lose more?
I don't think FD would disagree with that: "A fund with higher SD loses money quicker."
Given that the decision was to switch to a more volatile fund after the decline ending early April 2025, why make a switch from a more volatile fund, EGRIX (1& 3 year std dev of 4.11, 5.22) to a less volatile fund, EIGMX (2.07, 3.22)?
Portfolio Visualizer 1 year std devs (and other figures) April 2024 - March 2025 Portfolio Visualizer 3 year std devs (and other figures) April 2022 - March 2025
"I owned EGRIX earlier in 2025, and now I have owned EIGMX for several months." That switch hasn't worked out so well.
Both funds bottomed out on April 9th. Since that decline, per M* charts through Nov 17th: EGRIX +13.31% EIGMX +8.39%
The figures are similar for shorter time periods. Just in case "several months" means a switch sometime after the funds resumed an upward trend. (Contrarian investors try to invest before a bottom, trend/momentum investors tend to invest after an upturn.)
Comments
When market conditions change, I change my funds.
In 2022, BND and many "safe" bond funds were pretty bad.
In the last 15 years, the super safe fund BND made just 2.2% annually which is a dismal performance.
I never diversified.
EGRIX did well in the last 5 years regardless of the dollar.
You are describing classic performance chasing. But to each their own.
"The leading factor in the rating is the fund's strong long-term risk-adjusted performance. This can be seen in its five-year alpha calculated relative to the category index, which suggests that the managers have shown skill in their allocation of risk. The parent firm's excellent risk-adjusted performance, as shown by its average 10-year Morningstar Rating of 3.3 stars, also influences the rating."
They go on to note 'Average' People and Parent Pillars. Overall a 5 star fund with a Morningstar Medalist Rating of Neutral. Full disclosure, I own EGRIX.
The AI writeup above reflects none of this. Nor does any of this reasoning go into how the AI tool calculates the pillar rating. https://www.morningstar.com/content/dam/marketing/shared/research/methodology/813568-QuantRatingForFundsMethodolgy.pdf
IOW what you've got for the EGRIX pillar is a retrospective performance analysis, i.e. a star rating. Unlike the Wizard of Oz, there's no intelligent thought behind this curtain.
FD: You are correct. I said the above in March 2025. Then, bonds lost and then recovered. You just forgot to say that later I posted that I bought EGRIX. When things change, I change too.
=========
Disclaimer: I owned EGRIX earlier in 2025, and now I have owned EIGMX for several months.
=========
"You are describing classic performance chasing"
FD: Absolutely, but I call it trend following. The idea is to catch the trend early, to sell everything to MM when risk is very high, and to switch for better-performing funds.
chasefollow for the benefit of members who read you?There are successful trend following funds. I have 5-6% so invested . Why anyone would put “all their eggs” in that one basket escapes me. Waiting for a Wiley Coyote moment? Trend following (managed futures) funds invest in a diverse mix of equities, bonds, currencies, commodities, metals, real estate and more. It’s doubtful that whatever you are doing is comparable to what they do.
Feb 19, 2025 at 2:25pm OutOnBond said:
"FD1000 - Have you looked at EGRIX? Looks to be on a steady rise with minor volatility."
Feb 20, 2025 at 5:34pm Administrator said:
"It's on my lists for years but I never used it.
It's a black box and unpredictable.
It uses long, short in bonds and currencies around the world.
See one year chart and watch volatility in 2024."
https://ibb.co/840dNPyP
+1
Start reading at https://big-bang-investors.proboards.com/thread/3344/time-sell?page=10
stayCalm is correct about trends. I don't use most of what these funds do; it's too complicated and time-consuming.
Mine is pretty simple: only long, change funds according to trends, and sell to MM when risk is very high. Black boxes are unreliable. If I use them, it's usually shorter term, and I watch carefully.
Why would I put "all my eggs"?
This is based on my LT view that I can only have 2-5 great ideas at any moment. But I also switch quickly too when the time is right. In the last 2-3 years I traded less often and stayed in bond funds that I think can make 8+%. That also works with good timing. A fund with higher SD loses money quicker. A slower fund let me exit a bit later.
Example: I could have made more in 2024, but I stayed in HOSIX/CLOZ a lot more time.
In my world it was a perfect fund in 2024 (https://schrts.co/gnvFaMZA)
Why EGRIX and then switch to EIGMX? because after a decline, a more volatile fund would make more.
OR just possibly continue to lose more?
Given that the decision was to switch to a more volatile fund after the decline ending early April 2025, why make a switch from a more volatile fund, EGRIX (1& 3 year std dev of 4.11, 5.22) to a less volatile fund, EIGMX (2.07, 3.22)?
Portfolio Visualizer 1 year std devs (and other figures) April 2024 - March 2025
Portfolio Visualizer 3 year std devs (and other figures) April 2022 - March 2025
"I owned EGRIX earlier in 2025, and now I have owned EIGMX for several months."
That switch hasn't worked out so well.
Both funds bottomed out on April 9th. Since that decline, per M* charts through Nov 17th:
EGRIX +13.31%
EIGMX +8.39%
The figures are similar for shorter time periods. Just in case "several months" means a switch sometime after the funds resumed an upward trend. (Contrarian investors try to invest before a bottom, trend/momentum investors tend to invest after an upturn.)
April - Oct monthly returns
EGRIX: 0.37%, 2.11%, 1.44%, 0.89%, 1.49%, 1.65%, 2.39%
EIGMX: 0.23%, 1.41%, 0.93%, 0.58%, 1.04%, 10.3%, 1.49%
Data from Portfolio Visualizer (see table of monthly returns on page)