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Inflation picks up again in June, rising at 2.7% annual rate
The June inflation data just came in confirming that inflation has started to rise presumably because of tariffs. It took some time for the products with tariffs to reach the shelves.
Next Fed meeting is in September. Will see where the inflation will headed.
The Guardian article provides on inflation due to tariffs are the reason of higher CPI. Potentially, this could worsen if and when higher tariffs are enacted. We are traveling on the west coast now, Everything cost more: food, hotels, and consumer products. Additionally, we see considerable fewer foreign travelers comparing to the past. https://theguardian.com/business/2025/jul/15/us-inflation-june-trump-tariffs
Yes, it's coming. You can't do stupid stuff and get away with it for long. When your trade "agreement" isn't worth the paper it's written on you get what you deserve. It's called an agreement not "my whims/feelings/might change tomorrow" contract.
Bloomberg is reporting that the number was “below consensus projections” - whatever that means - and it continued a multi-month trend (of below consensus).
It’s always fun to play around with those numbers. Assuming someone is pulling 4% (probably on the high end) in a “safe” money market fund and being hit with a 25% federal tax on the income (probably on the low end), then they’re effectively netting 3% and just barely keeping up with inflation. My state imposes a 4%+ tax on earned income, so I guess if you live here you are likely losing ground in purchasing power if in a taxable money market account.
VUSXX currently has a 7 day SEC yield of 4.18% (4.27% APY). It should be mostly state tax exempt and if you don't like dealing with Vanguard is available through E*Trade.
FSIXX currently has a 7 day SEC yield of 4.16% (APY 4.25%). You can get it with a $1 min via Merrill.
Both will net you well north of 3% annually after taxes.
My morning orange juice will increase cost by 50%, as most of the orange juice now comes from Brazil due to crop infestation and failure in the U.S.
The tomatoes that we buy at COSTCO just increased by 30% as they come from Mexico.
Presumably U.S. growers are already growing as much as they can, so how does any of this help U.S. agriculture?
There will be more tariffs on the Dole pineapples that we buy also.
They used to be a major crop from Hawaii until they ran out of irrigation water there. Perhaps Trump is counting on increasing global warming to allow pineapples to be grown here too.
VUSXX currently has a 7 day SEC yield of 4.18% (4.27% APY). It should be mostly state tax exempt and if you don't like dealing with Vanguard is available through E*Trade.
FSIXX currently has a 7 day SEC yield of 4.16% (APY 4.25%). You can get it with a $1 min via Merrill.
Both will net you well north of 3% annually after taxes.
Great to know. Thanks @msf. I have little in taxable money market accounts (except what’s designated for near term expenses). Even in the IRA I use NEAR as a proxy. But your suggestions will surely help others.
@Old_Joe - As a morning orange juice lover I can relate. A month or so ago I read an article about the infestation and its impact on quality. I’ve noticed a deterioration in flavor. Global warming does have other benefits beyond certain produce, among them being the opening of Arctic shipping routes.
Core inflation is actually 2.9%, economists are saying that the full impact of tariffs has yet to be realized.
“While inventory front-running has mitigated the need to raise goods prices, it will become increasingly difficult for businesses to absorb higher import duties as pre-tariff stockpiles dwindle,” Sarah House, senior economist at Wells Fargo, said in a July 8 research report. “We expect core goods prices to pick up further in the second half of the year as a result.”
"We were wrong. We are wrong. And we're going to be paying for it for a long, long time." - A sentiment held by both Randolph Duke and many MAGA voters.
"We were wrong. We are wrong. And we're going to be paying for it for a long, long time." - A sentiment held by both Randolph Duke and many MAGA voters.
The above was a perfect statement in 2022 and 3 years later. Who gave us the biggest inflation in the last 4 decades?
He comes here to plant political flags, pretending he isn't. Mainly though, he isn't engaging or interesting enough to banter with. A Reddit level troll.
The elephant in the room is that the economy was strong as heck in 2023/2024 and handed to this admin on a silver platter. It is still holding up to the onslaught of chaos and tariffs and a Big Deficit Bill. It is not strong because of Trump, it is strong despite Trump. Taking credit for what he was given, not what he earns, is Trump's style.
When things turn bad, he will abdicate any/all responsibility. We have watched this happen many times. But, wrecking a booming economy is all his protectionist strategy will accomplish. Three decades of U.S. prosperity accompanied embracing free trade policies. Europe, China and more will thank Trump for providing them all this edge by self-immolating our trade policy.
Tariffs would have to go beyond 50% to cause any real large-scale manufacturing growth in the U.S.A. and the cost to our economy vis-a-vis inflation and prices would be staggering. All that will come from this is higher prices and slowing GDP.
Tariffs would have to go beyond 50% to cause any real large-scale manufacturing growth in the U.S.A. and the cost to our economy vis-a-vis inflation and prices would be staggering. All that will come from this is higher prices and slowing GDP.
Bingo. Meanwhile, the crazies have wiped out the renewables program surge, the only thing that would have actually helped U.S. manufacturing, and was already doing so, the majority of it in red states. But then we know well what they really think of their brainwashed constituents.
Our new analysis finds that the Trump tariffs threaten to offset much of the economic benefits of the new tax cuts, while falling short of paying for them. We estimate that:
Current US-imposed and scheduled tariffs would reduce long-run GDP by 0.8 percent, undermining two-thirds of the OBBBA’s 1.2 percent boost in long-run GDP.
Tariffs would offset only about half the cost of the OBBBA, on a dynamic basis and before retaliation.
Low-income taxpayers would be worse off under the combination of tariffs and OBBBA by the end of the budget window.
I am holding my cash in TFLO (iShares Treasury Floating Rate Bond ETF) which currently gives me a 30 Day SEC Yield of 4.27% along with no state and local taxes.
Comments
https://cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
Next Fed meeting is in September. Will see where the inflation will headed.
The Guardian article provides on inflation due to tariffs are the reason of higher CPI. Potentially, this could worsen if and when higher tariffs are enacted. We are traveling on the west coast now, Everything cost more: food, hotels, and consumer products. Additionally, we see considerable fewer foreign travelers comparing to the past.
https://theguardian.com/business/2025/jul/15/us-inflation-june-trump-tariffs
Bloomberg is reporting that the number was “below consensus projections” - whatever that means - and it continued a multi-month trend (of below consensus).
It’s always fun to play around with those numbers. Assuming someone is pulling 4% (probably on the high end) in a “safe” money market fund and being hit with a 25% federal tax on the income (probably on the low end), then they’re effectively netting 3% and just barely keeping up with inflation. My state imposes a 4%+ tax on earned income, so I guess if you live here you are likely losing ground in purchasing power if in a taxable money market account.
FSIXX currently has a 7 day SEC yield of 4.16% (APY 4.25%). You can get it with a $1 min via Merrill.
Both will net you well north of 3% annually after taxes.
The tomatoes that we buy at COSTCO just increased by 30% as they come from Mexico.
Presumably U.S. growers are already growing as much as they can, so how does any of this help U.S. agriculture?
There will be more tariffs on the Dole pineapples that we buy also.
They used to be a major crop from Hawaii until they ran out of irrigation water there. Perhaps Trump is counting on increasing global warming to allow pineapples to be grown here too.
@Old_Joe - As a morning orange juice lover I can relate. A month or so ago I read an article about the infestation and its impact on quality. I’ve noticed a deterioration in flavor. Global warming does have other benefits beyond certain produce, among them being the opening of Arctic shipping routes.
“While inventory front-running has mitigated the need to raise goods prices, it will become increasingly difficult for businesses to absorb higher import duties as pre-tariff stockpiles dwindle,” Sarah House, senior economist at Wells Fargo, said in a July 8 research report. “We expect core goods prices to pick up further in the second half of the year as a result.”
Who gave us the biggest inflation in the last 4 decades?
I understand that you just got another thread locked on BB with more of your poppycock.
Congratulations!
The elephant in the room is that the economy was strong as heck in 2023/2024 and handed to this admin on a silver platter. It is still holding up to the onslaught of chaos and tariffs and a Big Deficit Bill. It is not strong because of Trump, it is strong despite Trump. Taking credit for what he was given, not what he earns, is Trump's style.
When things turn bad, he will abdicate any/all responsibility. We have watched this happen many times. But, wrecking a booming economy is all his protectionist strategy will accomplish. Three decades of U.S. prosperity accompanied embracing free trade policies. Europe, China and more will thank Trump for providing them all this edge by self-immolating our trade policy.
Tariffs would have to go beyond 50% to cause any real large-scale manufacturing growth in the U.S.A. and the cost to our economy vis-a-vis inflation and prices would be staggering. All that will come from this is higher prices and slowing GDP.
Our new analysis finds that the Trump tariffs threaten to offset much of the economic benefits of the new tax cuts, while falling short of paying for them. We estimate that:
Current US-imposed and scheduled tariffs would reduce long-run GDP by 0.8 percent, undermining two-thirds of the OBBBA’s 1.2 percent boost in long-run GDP.
Tariffs would offset only about half the cost of the OBBBA, on a dynamic basis and before retaliation.
Low-income taxpayers would be worse off under the combination of tariffs and OBBBA by the end of the budget window.
https://taxfoundation.org/blog/trump-tariffs-tax-cuts/