Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
What I'm assuming is that Krugman meant something. You might have stopped with "hard to tell exactly what".
Here's the fuller context of the sentence (or phrase) in question:
A century and a half ago, despite the growth of manufacturing, America was still largely a nation of farmers. Today hardly any of us work on the land: Oh, and many, possibly a majority of farm workers are foreign-born, and many of them undocumented.
Although some politicians still portray rural areas and small towns as the “real America,” you don’t hear a lot of nostalgia for the days when agriculture dominated American employment. (If you ask me, Queens, New York comes a lot closer to being who we are now.)
ISTM he's writing about rural vs. urban and foreign-born vs. home-grown. And percentage of people working on farms.
I addressed the foreign vs native, albeit somewhat indirectly. For completeness, let me address the other two metrics. Farming? The only (semi) active farm in Queens is the Queens County Farm Museum. The land, all 47 acres of it, is owned by NYC. I feel confident that far fewer than 1% of Queens residents farm that land (that would be over 20,000 workers). So Queens is not representative of agricultural employment in the US. I doubt anyone would suggest otherwise.
"But there was active farm life in Queens until at least 1910," he said. "The museum is the last existing example of agricultural life in Queens."
The museum site operated as a truck farm from 1850 to 1910. The produce was grown specifically for markets in Manhattan. Crops are still to be found growing on the farm, but now the site is used mostly for educational purposes.
Rural vs. urban? Queens has long been known as the bedroom borough of NYC. That's meant as a put down. But it does mean that Queens does not fit the urban image that many people have of NYC. Why it even has a farm
If you squint very hard, you'll see a few counties that are colored deep purple (2,000 or more people per square mile). Queens has ten times that (22,000). Despite its "bedroom" reputation, Queens is far more urban than is the US generally (who we are).
One aspect of Queens that is close to who we are now is its household income. The Census Bureau estimates the median household income in the US in 2022 at $77.5K. The figure it gives for Queens based on its five year American Community Survey ending in 2022 is $82.4K. While an economist might be very likely to think in terms of numbers like these, this statistic does not fit into the subject matter of his post.
So what do you think Krugman meant by "who we are now"? What metric did his writing communicate to you?
Possibly: smarts, information, education, curiosity, tolerance and intolerance of intolerance?
I just spent a long weekend in Flushing (funeral, receptions): Jews, Asians, some African-Americans; schoolteachers, civil servants, do-good volunteers, urban planners, some lawyers. Next week I spend a week w friends in southern Ohio (including my hometown of Springfield, of Haitian-slandering fame, and a century ago where redlining began): realtors, insurance, rail workers, some teachers; most everybody German-American as to ancestry. Not all Maga.
So maybe I will return with wise observations about something, even ... diversity.
Clemens as an older teen: "Your Eastern people seem to think this country is a barren, uncultivated region, with a population consisting of heathens.” ... [But soon] the seventeen-year-old Sam had bolted East .... In a letter home, Sam complained that the East was too ethnic, too abolitionist, and too dark for his taste.
I was wondering what orange-tinted drama would take place over the weekend ... he's apparently starting early so as not to interrupt his latest golf outing -- the Tariff Toddler just threatened 50% tariff on EU goods and 25% on Apple products.
Guess he really wants to distract folks from asking questions about his crypto grifter orgy last night?
I love tariff even MAGA leader (DT) doesn't know what it is - he said first exporting countries will pay just like cost of MAGA wall south of the border to be paid by Mexico. His MAGA followers don't either. But when Walmart came out (it's import tax, we need to pass some of it to consumers), DT wailed - WM needs to eat the cost means we share holders. But for me, Tariff costs is much less (I bought a car, all major appliances etc. in the last 6-12 months so I am set) than the tax breaks I will get from Beautiful bill (sorry Medicaid recipients). I went to Costco yesterday to buy a window AC, it was made in China, cost was same as before 30% tariff, I was in hog heaven. On China, DT blinked - tariff 145% to 30%. So we pay 30% on imports from China and China consumers only pay 10% on American imports - China got a better deal.
Yes, shady crypto dealings can be hidden with distractions. Attacking Harvard every other day doesn't cut it, so there will be much more Tariff chaos to come.
CNN — President Donald Trump said Sunday that he has agreed to delay a 50% tariff on European Union imports until July 9, the latest instance of Trump declaring an impending tariff and throwing markets into confusion only to later walk back the threatened levies.
CNN — President Donald Trump said Sunday that he has agreed to delay a 50% tariff on European Union imports until July 9, the latest instance of Trump declaring an impending tariff and throwing markets into confusion only to later walk back the threatened levies.
... which goes along w/what I just posted in another thread:
IMO we are in the early stages of a seismic, but quiet, re-ordering of the global economy over the next 10-15 years. Specifically, I think the world economy and/or money flows will pivot to working WITH (or AROUND) the United States as a partner, not THROUGH the United States as a requirement. Could that become the proverbial 'New World Order'?
The current regime, backed by its complicit Congressional enablers and a history of biparitsan whistling-past-the-gravegard, is showing that America cannot be relied upon anymore as a stable partner in business, economics, markets, defense, etc, etc. Tariff Toddler's on-again, off-again proclaimations are not confidence-building or reassuring other nations, let alone businesses. And then seeing our nation's 'leaders' gleefully adding more to our debt again on the very day our credit rating gets (again) downgraded is just another example of the current folks in DC acting irresponsibly and figuring deep down that the music will never stop.
If the markets start tuning out these Tariff announcements, maybe we suffer over the next year or so and narrowly avoid a recession. The dollar has to stabilize. Our credibility has taken a hit this year. And the Fed must remain independent, or our credibility takes another hit.
The US Markets resilience will be sorely tested. Hopefully the next POTUS can unwind most of this regime's mess, but that is easier said than done.
If the markets start tuning out these Tariff announcements, maybe we suffer over the next year or so and narrowly avoid a recession. The dollar has to stabilize. Our credibility has taken a hit this year. And the Fed must remain independent, or our credibility takes another hit.
The US Markets resilience will be sorely tested. Hopefully the next POTUS can unwind most of this regime's mess, but that is easier said than done.
"Brand USA" keeps falling.
A tidbit I recently read. There was recently a 25 day trading period ( ending May 12) where the S@P gained 15%. That is rarer than rare and going back to 1957 - 11 occurrences - and in no instances has a recession occurred within 12 months. In fact the S@P has averaged a 25% gain one year after such signals.
So far the "markets" have been reacting negatively to the White House nutjob, perhaps (who really knows?) prompting the almost immediate delays or reversals shortly after the insane "announcements". If the markets develop an immunity to this stupidity and temporarily stabilize we may lose one of the more important checks on this ridiculous see-saw.
If the markets start tuning out these Tariff announcements, maybe we suffer over the next year or so and narrowly avoid a recession. The dollar has to stabilize. Our credibility has taken a hit this year. And the Fed must remain independent, or our credibility takes another hit.
The US Markets resilience will be sorely tested. Hopefully the next POTUS can unwind most of this regime's mess, but that is easier said than done.
"Brand USA" keeps falling.
A tidbit I recently read. There was recently a 25 day trading period ( ending May 12) where the S@P gained 15%. That is rarer than rare and going back to 1957 - 11 occurrences - and in no instances has a recession occurred within 12 months. In fact the S@P has averaged a 25% gain one year after such signals.
From 1957 til recently tariff policy wasn't in a constant state of flux, or even something people have had to consider since the 1934 Reciprocal Trade Agreements Act.
It's only my opinion--meaning I don't know of anybody I could quote on this--that tariffs are exogenous to whatever most people take into account when they think of market cycles. I can't say that I am reassured that smart people are beginning to discount the velocity of announcements and reversals as crying wolf while elsewhere companies are pulling earnings guidance.
As a sports fan, I hate streaks. Seems like they always end ugly.
For extra reading: The S&P 500 was introduced in 1957. And according to this website, the bear market that year is classified as a Teddy Bear:
Because it just dipped below -20% and then accelerated into a recovery more rapid than the drop which lasted over three times longer
@WABAC. Sometime will have to post all the bullish momentum indicators that triggered beginning on April 9. A plethora of them. More than in August 1982 and March 2009. So far so good.
@WABAC. Sometime will have to post all the bullish momentum indicators that triggered beginning on April 9. A plethora of them. More than in August 1982 and March 2009. So far so good.
I would be interested in seeing them. I'm interested in the human desire to find patterns and meanings in patterns.
As an amateur historian I would also be interested in looking at the historical circumstances around the other eleven events that are similar to market action since April 9.
Starting tomorrow, the S&P 500 will have to find its way out of another tariff-induced pothole. The recent comments about Apple and the EU are the main reason my small holding in BUBIX has out-performed SPY since I bought it on March 4, and my money market has outperformed it YTD. They also put a sizeable dent in my taxable holdings that have remained largely untouched for quite a while.
The Tariff Pause Cycle Continues: We have heard this song many times before. The President issues an aggressive tariff threat. Markets sell off sharply. Then a phone call takes place (this time with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen). A reprieve is given. And the markets bounce back smartly. Wash, rinse, repeat. The question is at what point credibility is lost. I suppose we shall find out on July 9th...
Several comments, some I said before: 1) My system signaled a buy on April 12th (link). 2) The tariffs are a bargaining tool; get used to it. 3) The SP500 is down less than 1% in 2025 regardless of the politics. The SP500 made 50% in 2023-4, are you expecting another high % year in 2025? BTW, Europe=VGK made over 20% in 2025 and since Feb is was clear, did you use it? 4) I'm sure Trump was shaking after he talked with Ursula von der Leyen...really? 5) David Rosenberg is one of the "best" predictors. See examples below. In 10/2016 (link) "It’s ‘late in the game’ for market" Reality: The SP500 made 27+% to the end of 2017 (link)
In 01/2019 (link) "A recession is virtually unavoidable this year" Reality: There wasn't any recession in 2019 and the SP500 was up over 31%.
The tariffs are a bargaining tool.... I could make X using only a tabletop vice and a hammer, too. Dealing with Uncle Orange is like talking to a petulant child. That's his world, actually: seeing things through the eyes of a spoiled child.
Comments
https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/deindustrialization-causes-and-consequences
What I'm assuming is that Krugman meant something. You might have stopped with "hard to tell exactly what".
Here's the fuller context of the sentence (or phrase) in question: ISTM he's writing about rural vs. urban and foreign-born vs. home-grown. And percentage of people working on farms.
I addressed the foreign vs native, albeit somewhat indirectly. For completeness, let me address the other two metrics. Farming? The only (semi) active farm in Queens is the Queens County Farm Museum. The land, all 47 acres of it, is owned by NYC. I feel confident that far fewer than 1% of Queens residents farm that land (that would be over 20,000 workers). So Queens is not representative of agricultural employment in the US. I doubt anyone would suggest otherwise. https://www.nytimes.com/1995/08/06/nyregion/playing-in-the-neighborhood-floral-park-down-on-the-farm-in-the-big-city.html
Rural vs. urban? Queens has long been known as the bedroom borough of NYC. That's meant as a put down. But it does mean that Queens does not fit the urban image that many people have of NYC. Why it even has a farm
Still, in terms of population, it is far more densely populated than the typical county in the US. Here's a 2010 population density map:
https://www2.census.gov/geo/pdfs/maps-data/maps/thematic/us_popdensity_2010map.pdf
If you squint very hard, you'll see a few counties that are colored deep purple (2,000 or more people per square mile). Queens has ten times that (22,000). Despite its "bedroom" reputation, Queens is far more urban than is the US generally (who we are).
One aspect of Queens that is close to who we are now is its household income. The Census Bureau estimates the median household income in the US in 2022 at $77.5K. The figure it gives for Queens based on its five year American Community Survey ending in 2022 is $82.4K. While an economist might be very likely to think in terms of numbers like these, this statistic does not fit into the subject matter of his post.
So what do you think Krugman meant by "who we are now"? What metric did his writing communicate to you?
Probably not farmland.
Possibly: smarts, information, education, curiosity, tolerance and intolerance of intolerance?
I just spent a long weekend in Flushing (funeral, receptions): Jews, Asians, some African-Americans; schoolteachers, civil servants, do-good volunteers, urban planners, some lawyers. Next week I spend a week w friends in southern Ohio (including my hometown of Springfield, of Haitian-slandering fame, and a century ago where redlining began): realtors, insurance, rail workers, some teachers; most everybody German-American as to ancestry. Not all Maga.
So maybe I will return with wise observations about something, even ... diversity.
Clemens as an older teen:
"Your Eastern people seem to think this country is a barren, uncultivated region, with a population consisting of heathens.” ... [But soon] the seventeen-year-old Sam had bolted East .... In a letter home, Sam complained that the East was too ethnic, too abolitionist, and too dark for his taste.
Guess he really wants to distract folks from asking questions about his crypto grifter orgy last night?
Markets down 1 to 3%.
YUP
This is probably why Tariff Toddler is demanding a 50% tariff coming on all EU goods starting 1 Jun.... Greenland just did a mineral deal with the EU!
https://www.newsweek.com/greenland-trump-permit-extraction-2075673
God bless the Greenlanders.
NRA is being streamlined, or de-regulated or un-toothed, to make nuclear power easier to produce.
MUTANTS FOR NUKES! You can join the fraternity, too.
—
President Donald Trump said Sunday that he has agreed to delay a 50% tariff on European Union imports until July 9, the latest instance of Trump declaring an impending tariff and throwing markets into confusion only to later walk back the threatened levies.
IMO we are in the early stages of a seismic, but quiet, re-ordering of the global economy over the next 10-15 years. Specifically, I think the world economy and/or money flows will pivot to working WITH (or AROUND) the United States as a partner, not THROUGH the United States as a requirement. Could that become the proverbial 'New World Order'?
The current regime, backed by its complicit Congressional enablers and a history of biparitsan whistling-past-the-gravegard, is showing that America cannot be relied upon anymore as a stable partner in business, economics, markets, defense, etc, etc. Tariff Toddler's on-again, off-again proclaimations are not confidence-building or reassuring other nations, let alone businesses. And then seeing our nation's 'leaders' gleefully adding more to our debt again on the very day our credit rating gets (again) downgraded is just another example of the current folks in DC acting irresponsibly and figuring deep down that the music will never stop.
The US Markets resilience will be sorely tested. Hopefully the next POTUS can unwind most of this regime's mess, but that is easier said than done.
"Brand USA" keeps falling.
It's only my opinion--meaning I don't know of anybody I could quote on this--that tariffs are exogenous to whatever most people take into account when they think of market cycles. I can't say that I am reassured that smart people are beginning to discount the velocity of announcements and reversals as crying wolf while elsewhere companies are pulling earnings guidance.
As a sports fan, I hate streaks. Seems like they always end ugly.
For extra reading: The S&P 500 was introduced in 1957. And according to this website, the bear market that year is classified as a Teddy Bear:
I wonder (extrapolating from those two distinct dates) what the p/e would reach as the bull ran
As an amateur historian I would also be interested in looking at the historical circumstances around the other eleven events that are similar to market action since April 9.
Starting tomorrow, the S&P 500 will have to find its way out of another tariff-induced pothole. The recent comments about Apple and the EU are the main reason my small holding in BUBIX has out-performed SPY since I bought it on March 4, and my money market has outperformed it YTD. They also put a sizeable dent in my taxable holdings that have remained largely untouched for quite a while.
Blame it all on tariff talks. It's really quite convenient - we can sweep this mess under the rug like nothing bad happened. Go Amerika!
Happy Memorial Day, all!
The Tariff Pause Cycle Continues: We have heard this song many times before. The President issues an aggressive tariff threat. Markets sell off sharply. Then a phone call takes place (this time with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen). A reprieve is given. And the markets bounce back smartly. Wash, rinse, repeat. The question is at what point credibility is lost. I suppose we shall find out on July 9th...
1) My system signaled a buy on April 12th (link).
2) The tariffs are a bargaining tool; get used to it.
3) The SP500 is down less than 1% in 2025 regardless of the politics. The SP500 made 50% in 2023-4, are you expecting another high % year in 2025?
BTW, Europe=VGK made over 20% in 2025 and since Feb is was clear, did you use it?
4) I'm sure Trump was shaking after he talked with Ursula von der Leyen...really?
5) David Rosenberg is one of the "best" predictors. See examples below.
In 10/2016 (link) "It’s ‘late in the game’ for market"
Reality: The SP500 made 27+% to the end of 2017 (link)
In 01/2019 (link) "A recession is virtually unavoidable this year"
Reality: There wasn't any recession in 2019 and the SP500 was up over 31%.
care to compare?
They came with tweets, not warning shots,
Trade wars waged in parking lots.
A levy here, a threat by night,
Then deals declared — not quite airtight.
Steel was taxed to save the mills,
But builders wept at soaring bills.
Soybeans rotted, ships stood still,
Farmers prayed for bailout swill.
Canada got slapped with fees—
"A threat,” he claimed, “to our steel trees."
Allies stunned, unsure what’s next—
Tariffs sent in autocorrects.
He mocked free trade, then praised Japan,
Tore up deals, then drew new plans.
Said deficits were wounds to heal,
While buying French cologne and veal.
China played the long, slow game,
Responded cool while fanning flame.
Tariffs flew like poker bets,
Each one raising global debts.
Markets trembled, then rebounded,
Stock picks swirled, confusion sounded.
No playbook clear, no path defined—
Just chaos carved from one man’s mind.
In suits and slogans, rules were bent,
With Fox & Friends as Parliament.
And when the smoke began to fade,
The jobs stayed lost, the price was paid.