Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
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“There’s No Recession Alarm in the Collective Wisdom of Markets”
If it helps to internalize by writing things down but do not want to post, then you can make a post but not submit. You can save it as a draft until the next day. When the new marks come in you can repeat the process.
BTW, there are posters who like (have a need) to know the internals of the market every day. Such posters maintain their own lists and follow. Then there are posters who do not care for such a thing. There is no evidence that one group performs better than the other.
If it helps to internalize by writing things down but do not want to post, then you can make a post but not submit. You can save it as a draft until the next day. When the new marks come in you can repeat the process.
BTW, there are posters who like (have a need) to know the internals of the market every day. Such posters maintain their own lists and follow. Then there are posters who do not care for such a thing. There is no evidence that one group performs better than the other.
Thanks. But I think you and others missed the point I made this morning which was that every single asset class I track was showing green. I thought that most remarkable. Have never witnessed it before. Generally things move in different directions, not in unison. Offered it up thinking others might find it noteworthy. Casts some doubt on the notion we’re heading for a hard landing. ISTM @Junkster has recently posted technical indicators that seem to support the same notion. Here it is again as I posted it this morning. -
Today does not look like a ”recession” day. Everything I track is green this morning. While it is only a single day, it is very unusual to see so many different areas marching higher together. I really can’t recall that happening before.
- U.S. Equities up
- Real Estate up
- Precious metals & miners up
- Utilities up
- Real Asset funds / commodities up
- Investment grade bonds up
- Rio Tinto (industrial metals) up
- Consumer staples up
- Oil up
- European equities up
(I don’t track junk bonds, but suspect they’re up as well.)
ISTM - One could post worse and far less relevant content to this esteemed forum’s ”Other Investing” board than my humble submission this morning.
I was only trying to help you with your following comment to a2z - “I’ll try to refrain from posting day to day market changes. I feel it helps me stay in touch with different asset classes. Apparently it’s of little value to you or most.” My point is if you want to post but feel you must refrain, then you can consider the idea I suggested.
As to your first post today, I had read the first sentence and decided to skip the rest of the post - I make moment to moment allocation of time decisions. I can not say about others but there is no question of me missing or not missing your point. From my perspective, you are free to continue to post what you like to post.
I don't care whether there is a recession, or not. My concern is the health of my IRA. And there's lots of information out there telling me it doesn't need to be fully invested yet. Dinky linky.
The market's main issues as stocks declined? Growing uncertainty around President Trump's policies, how those might impact a weakening economic growth outlook — and fears over the artificial intelligence boom disappointing. In the past week, there's been little evidence that those fears were overblown.
In other words, other than some stocks being "cheaper" than they were a month ago, when the S&P 500 hit its most recent high, there haven't been a lot of compelling cases to convince investors — who didn't buy stocks last week — to pile in now.
Plenty of survey data has cited concerns about how tariffs could impact both consumer and business spending. But there haven't been enough hard data points, like significantly softening consumer spending numbers, weak labor reports, or a swath of earnings guidance cuts, to complete the story.
"The vibes have helped us understand why the stock market has been getting hit so hard, and why concerns about the direction of the economy are rising," RBC Capital Markets head of US equity strategy Lori Calvasina wrote. "But the vibes aren't sending us a clear signal about whether, even with the S&P 500 down 10% from all time highs, a contrarian buying opportunity is at hand."
Maybe something like certainty will begin to appear as we get closer to April 2. On the other hand, things could also get crazier. No one knows which direction the trade wars will go. And we have yet to see data resulting from those tariffs that have gone into effect.
If you follow the conventional wisdom of the anodyne analysts, none of the above matters. You should stick to your plan, ignore what is happening in trade policy because politics, and timing markets might cause hair to grown on your palms, but will definitely end in tears.
For extra credit:
"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." Turns out Keynes didn't say that, some guy named Gary Shilling did. Check it out.
Comments
Just a thought.
If it helps to internalize by writing things down but do not want to post, then you can make a post but not submit. You can save it as a draft until the next day. When the new marks come in you can repeat the process.
BTW, there are posters who like (have a need) to know the internals of the market every day. Such posters maintain their own lists and follow. Then there are posters who do not care for such a thing. There is no evidence that one group performs better than the other.
Thanks. But I think you and others missed the point I made this morning which was that every single asset class I track was showing green. I thought that most remarkable. Have never witnessed it before. Generally things move in different directions, not in unison. Offered it up thinking others might find it noteworthy. Casts some doubt on the notion we’re heading for a hard landing. ISTM @Junkster has recently posted technical indicators that seem to support the same notion. Here it is again as I posted it this morning.
-
Today does not look like a ”recession” day. Everything I track is green this morning. While it is only a single day, it is very unusual to see so many different areas marching higher together. I really can’t recall that happening before.
- U.S. Equities up
- Real Estate up
- Precious metals & miners up
- Utilities up
- Real Asset funds / commodities up
- Investment grade bonds up
- Rio Tinto (industrial metals) up
- Consumer staples up
- Oil up
- European equities up
(I don’t track junk bonds, but suspect they’re up as well.)
ISTM - One could post worse and far less relevant content to this esteemed forum’s ”Other Investing” board than my humble submission this morning.
I was only trying to help you with your following comment to a2z - “I’ll try to refrain from posting day to day market changes. I feel it helps me stay in touch with different asset classes. Apparently it’s of little value to you or most.” My point is if you want to post but feel you must refrain, then you can consider the idea I suggested.
As to your first post today, I had read the first sentence and decided to skip the rest of the post - I make moment to moment allocation of time decisions. I can not say about others but there is no question of me missing or not missing your point. From my perspective, you are free to continue to post what you like to post.
If you follow the conventional wisdom of the anodyne analysts, none of the above matters. You should stick to your plan, ignore what is happening in trade policy because politics, and timing markets might cause hair to grown on your palms, but will definitely end in tears.
For extra credit:
"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." Turns out Keynes didn't say that, some guy named Gary Shilling did. Check it out.
https://apple.news/AiEau1LPrRcWyXFzo_6WJKw