Despite the actions occurring daily in our politics, I appreciate the reasoning that this author suggests:
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2025/03/12/no-recession-alarm-collective-wisdom-marketsExcerpt: “On balance, markets seem to be signaling that the economy is slowing modestly, contrary to the deep recession or even crisis many fear. It’s a remarkably measured signal amidst the noise swirling around the White House. A deep recession or crisis would normally involve some combination of aggressive Fed rate cuts, rising bond defaults and sharply lower corporate earnings preceded by a rally in Treasuries, surging credit spreads and a bear market in stocks. This is not that.”
Comments
Far be it from me to offer investment advice. But I don’t buy the idea that there’s nowhere to invest except hiding out in cash.
Recession? Looks like one may be in the works. But there’s no way to know for sure when it will start, how long or how severe it could be. Nor does a recession preclude making money in certain types of bonds, equities long-short or market neutral funds. . Likely, some foreign economies would hold up or prosper. And then you get into the potential “double-dip” scenario - recession / uptick / recession. You could drive yourself silly trying to predict where things might lead. Hedge funds try. Many do well at it, while others loose fortunes and shut down.
A good motto: ”In inflation we trust.” Just as Chauncey Gardner trusted in the eventual regeneration of his garden come spring, we may trust that there will always be inflation. It’s characteristic of paper currencies. Protect your assets by investing to keep up with or outrun inflation.
I wouldn’t touch JBBB after the run it had in ‘24 - even before then …
When the people running the government are telling you that they are embarked on a fundamental remake of the world economy, don't give a damn about the markets, or the price of eggs, and wouldn't mind annexing other people's property, maybe it's time to pay attention to what they're saying.
https://www.linkedin.com/in/nir-kaissar-a1852851/
That opinion piece gives me the impression the author is caught sucking his thumb and this is his sheepish letter to his clients.
This is how the article ends, "For now, look for a softer job market, stable inflation, moderately lower mortgage rates and a less ebullient stock market. But stay tuned — whatever happens, markets are likely to know about it first."
Who is paying this guy for portfolio advice / to manage money? I just hope he is a better money manager than reflected in the article.
Would you invest with this author? If not, why read his writings?
I would be more than happy to give my money to @Junkster.
But unable to access the likendin piece. Have to be signed in to something.
Looks like utilities and some commodity like funds held up today. RIO was up which is hardly a forecast of recession. If you don’t report income and want the IRS & FBI gutted for your own CYA, you really don’t care much about the state of the economy.
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The truth is no one knows. But the best guess lies in the collective wisdom of markets — the countless independent buy and sell decisions manifested in stock and bond prices.”
I found the quantitative argument by the author had merit. He listed his reasoning by looking at how slow downs to recessions show-up through treasury, credit, and stock earnings price, and inflation expectations.
Still, I wish I had moved more of my (now) 35% equity in retirement funds to cash instruments. But I had not. My urge to sell was/is tempered by the previous recoveries from 2000, 2008, and 2020.
The fear-factor in the current climate is real for me, so I’m looking for data that I can understand to offset any emotional high-jacking.
I agree, this time may be completely different as noted by previous posters and threads. I have kept a significant (for me) cash stash, to aid my wife and me through this *downturn.* Enough to cover 2-3 years even if social security is impacted.
So my head isn’t in the sand regarding our nation, economy, and stock market; and I’m not looking to be *right* in this post. I am looking for direction just like everyone here, and find evaluating the data that the stock market is giving, even if it becomes stale immediately, that’s what I’ve got.
I may be looking at the wrong data and would always appreciate additional information.
It is unknown risk caused by this trade war which we are about to embark upon, and their consequences on the market is most concerning.
I may be wrong but I am learning fast.
among other things:
https://www.fidelity.com/bin-public/060_www_fidelity_com/documents/fidelity/election-party.pdf
i remain open to the presidential trope not being a perfect forecaster, since this time is congress and judiciary are complicit.
here is something more fine-grained with regards to now :
https://www.isabelnet.com/probability-of-u-s-recession-as-priced-across-asset-classes/
- From Dan Ivascyn of Pimco in this week’s Lewis Braham Barron’s interview:
”Ivascyn doesn't anticipate a deep recession or inflationary spike …”
- One bell-weather of recession I watch is Rio Tinto (RIO). It gained 3% Friday and is up over 7% YTD.
- The action in precious metals doesn’t appear to be forecasting a prolonged or deep recession.
- The bond market does seem to be anticipating at least a moderate slowdown. The 10-year U.S. treasury has fallen from around 4.8% two months ago to around 4.32% Friday. But some of that is a result of junk bond investors seeking refuge in better quality credit as overpriced junk reprices.
- There are dangers in selling risk assets and moving into cash based on a prediction. Here’s what Barron’s columnist Jack Hough has to say on that in this week’s edition:
“Since it's impossible to know when the stock market will fall, only that stocks tend to go up more they go down, you'll likely get the timing wrong. Then stubbornness will kick in, and you'll decide that you're not wrong, just early. By the time you get to despair, and capitulation, history suggests that you'll be buying back in at a much higher price. Or you might luck out and time the whole thing beautifully. Best to lean on luck for your March Madness brackets, however, not your long-term savings.”
Here is one example from Trump's favorite president: https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2025/03/03/trade-wars-come-with-a-price-and-investors-may-already-paying-it/
Sure to be popular. This thread is about signs of an impending economic recession. I can’t chew gum and walk at the same time anymore. A thread should be about what the title says it’s about.
- U.S. Equities up
- Real Estate up
- Precious metals & miners up
- Utilities up
- Real Asset funds / commodities up
- Investment grade bonds up
- Rio Tinto (industrial metals) up
- Consumer staples up
- Oil up
- European equities up
(I don’t track junk bonds, but suspect they’re up as well.)
nothing more useless than single-day up\down comments. the investing mantra has gone in a few months (for some) from 'turbocharged USA!!' to 'i dont know the future'.
that is either progress or retrospective reality.
straw poll indicates biz execs need ~30% mkt drops to consider something may be wrong with MAGA econ policy.
this would be unimaginable pre-election.
one sure thing about the future; retrospective evaluations will be plentiful.
https://archive.is/n0InR
Just enjoying the ride this morning. Actually, I’m still positioned on the defensive side - but not by a lot. If you missed my point: It was the uniformity of the move across various asset classes that I found noteworthy. A lot of casual investors think only in terms of “stocks and bonds”. But there are many different ways to make money. A fall in “stocks” (usually thought of as the Dow, S&P or NASDAQ) does not necessarily mean that real estate, utilities, staples, oil, precious metals or Asian or European equities will also fall.
If I may interject, it sounds as if your disdain for the political scene (I share it) may be affecting your investment outlook. I’d say nothing more useless than combining politics with making money. Trying to factor in / calculate the impact of a “personality” to that equation only makes it even more complicated.
Have a nice day.
LOL - Brings to mind Truman’s request for a “one-armed economist.”
no, i stand by my statement there nothing more useless than a single day up\down note on asset classes.
my disdain for politics is their potential negative impact on society. we know there is a very strong longterm correlation to that and local economies/markets, but it seems politics use as a tool for mkt timing is poor. a bit better are probabilities of fixed economic policies (e.g., NOT tariff flopping), but frankly some politicians have no concept of complex adaptive systems and rather confer short-term benefits on specific parts in a zero-sum manner.
but i note the plethora of enthusiasts who feel they can individually benefit from societal collapse, or estimate they are wealthy enough to ride it out regardless.
Thanks @a2z for the tempered and well reasoned response. Yeah - things are unraveling. For my own sanity I try to post and read mostly about investing and not wade too far into the deepening effluent. But you are correct in your assessment. Perhaps unfortunately, the higher stocks / other risk assets climb the more those at the top of the pile will be able to reign over the foul mess without submerging into it. They are no doubt keenly aware of that. I’ll try to refrain from posting day to day market changes. I feel it helps me stay in touch with different asset classes. Apparently it’s of little value to you or most.
When the Trump family, Musk and the R (and D) leaders in Congress begin unloading their stocks, commodities, crypto, real estate holdings, etc., we shall know the end is near. I see no sign of that happening anytime soon.