Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
"At what point is Trump considered to be a national security threat?"
It has been abundantly clear that Trump is a national security threat since his inept and criminal mishandling of classified documents. And yet the Teflon-Don got away scot-free once again! There ought to be a law against this type of activity...
Or his double-dealing, grifting, corruption, lobbying other governments as a private citizen, etc, etc, etc.
Laws are only good if they are not only enacted, but enforced --- and they're often not, especially when it's convenient for those in charge.
With all the craziness happening these past two weeks, I had intended to move a significant percentage of equities to our mmkt acct on Friday, but chose to wait and see at the last moment. Sheesh! Foolish me!
I'm less than half now in stocks. A bit more in bonds. Slowly growing MM in dribs and drabs, but for a specific goal. The whole rest of the world thinks the USA has lost its mind and become worthy of suspicion, now. I wonder when the recession-depression will start?
I take some solace knowing the Big Money Thieves will do what they must to protect their own investments. My relative pittance might by the same token not be wiped out. Fingers crossed.
In terms of investments, this Canada/Mexico fubar is my investing tipping point. I’m holding 35% in equities but willing to drop to 30% on Monday if a market dive doesn’t happen.
Or his double-dealing, grifting, corruption, lobbying other governments as a private citizen, etc, etc, etc.
Laws are only good if they are not only enacted, but enforced --- and they're often not, especially when it's convenient for those in charge.
Yes, unfortunately this is the case. FOTUS was not duly punished for multiple crimes he has perpetrated. It seems like laws often do not apply to people of his ilk!
I introduced the phrase on a prior post I think last week. Starting to think it has real merit: buffoon-induced black swan event. This one we kinda knew had wings for a while now, so we ain't quite there yet, but likely soon will be. ----------------------------------
Stock futures appeared headed to another “large gap down” on the daily charts following the news, said analysts at U.K.-based Matrix Trade, in a note. A gap on the daily chart occurs when an asset opens above or below its trading range from the previous session. Stocks opened sharply lower last week as investors reacted to China startup DeepSeek’s artificial-i-intelligence advance. -----------------------------------
The hit to markets will depend on what comes next—how Trump responds to retaliation, whether tariffs are lifted swiftly in response to dealmaking, and what’s to come on other trade fronts.
Some analysts say the markets weren’t prepared for the upheaval. “The currency markets will have massive move as the Mexico and Canada moves weren’t expected,” says Jens Nordvig, founder of Exante Data via email. “Then the question is if the equity market can handle it.”
Rebecca Patterson, former chief investment strategist at Bridgewater and independent director at Vanguard, says this opening salvo will increase inflation uncertainty and “make the Fed more cautious about its next policy decisions.” More uncertainty about growth could lead consumers and businesses to move more cautiously, she adds, and will be reflected in higher bond term premiums, “and less optimism about equities, especially those industries most exposed to tariffs. I also would expect the dollar to strengthen. ”
Seems odd, "Some analysts say the markets weren’t prepared for the upheaval."
Hasn't he been telegraphing it since the primaries or am I and many other market participants just that out of touch.
Agreed. As I said, "This one we kinda knew had wings for a while now..."
I think many thought he ain't this stoopid and wouldn't actually go thru with them, at least not at these levels. And it wasn't fully clarified until Friday that they were taking effect at the beginning of Feb.
Also, one of the articles I linked goes on to note how some currency markets really weren't pricing in this level (of stoopidity) and are likely to get rocked.
"......the longer we fail to recognize the current situation for what it is—a slow-rolling coup attempt—the longer it will take for us to recover."
"....outlets are not addressing the obvious coordinated nature of the unprecedented attacks on the DOJ, FBI, Office of Personnel Management, Treasury Department, and dozens of other agencies.
Taken together, those actions amount to a hostile takeover of the US government by those who are loyal to Trump rather than to the US Constitution. The only word that accurately describes that situation is “coup.” Any other description is a sign of fear, submission, or surrender."
CBC: (Interesting, the way Canadians are able to name appointed US cabinet officials. How many Yanks know the names of those counterparts?)
Canada is already expecting Recession, big jump in unemployment, a hit to the Loonie. Featured here are: conflicting signals from the Orange "Administration;" trying to know Trumpster's mind; realizing that he is like a shark who can smell blood. Surely,Trump's been told that the Trudeau gummint is by now a caretaker. A lame duck. "Canada catches the flu whenever the US catches a cold." https://www.cbc.ca/listen/live-radio/1-57-the-sunday-magazine/clip/16125416-the-implications-donald-trumps-tariffs-canadian-goods
The ignorant orange idiot just said that tariffs against the EU are coming 'soon' .....
He really does want to blow up the world, doesn't he?
EU tariffs would be the cherry on top this next week. Final nail in the coffin. Market disruption complete. How long can this really hold? Who knows.
Our country has been hijacked by an ex reality tv show host - I only wish somebody could shout in his orange face "YOUR FIRED".
They tried after 1/6, but the Senate GQP were too cowardly to stand up for the country and voted to acquit their cult leader b/c they were terrified of getting primaried out of their jobs ... or harassed by his mob back home.
The damage is happening now. Next senate election is 2 years away. It may be too late to get these GOP out of their seat. There are few moderates as they get squeezed out in recent years. It is sad to see the cabinet confirmation failed to get the most qualified person for the job.
EU imports went from $200b in year 2000 to 600b now; whereas Canada imports went from $200b to 400b. I am sure EU membership has expanded during that period but still that much more imports from a region that presumably is a nursing home makes me think what the hell have we been. China and HK went from 100b to 440b, after hitting nearly 600b a few years ago. Mexico is the biggest beneficiary going from 100b to 500b. Japan stayed steady more or less around 150b, which means as a percentage of our GDP, imports from Japan fell drastically. My earlier comments about China diversifying their exports to the US can be seen in the data.
In any case, given so much illegal immigration is from (and through) Mexico, I think providing serious disincentive to Mexico was warranted 20-30 years ago. This is not a new problem. The biggest beneficiary US industries of illegal immigration must have now decided they received too many than they want. Mexico has had governance problems for as long as I can remember. Why were not illegal immigration and drugs tied into trade agreements for all these years? So, all the public reasoning provided for current Tariffs does not add up for me. Show me what is behind the curtain. Makes me think neither the illegal immigration nor drugs from Mexico will be solved in my lifetime.
And here's more on what was thought to be priced in from The Barron's Daily (BOLD added)
Trump Tariffs Cause Stock Market Chaos. Why Wall Street Didn’t Act on Warnings and 5 Other Things to Know Today.
President Donald Trump looks set to deliver on his promise and impose hefty tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, with Europe next in his sights. Amid all the turbulence that’s causing in financial markets, one question is obvious—why is this such a surprise?
After all, this is what Trump promised to do since he started his campaign to retake the White House. He reiterated it after he was elected in November. He even gave specific numbers and dates for a start last week.
But traders were still skeptical that anything material would come of it. Stocks rose markedly in January, extending impressive gains since Trump’s victory in November on optimism that deregulation and tax cuts would bolster corporate earnings.
The reason investors dismissed the rather obvious signs was because the tariffs don’t seem to make sense. Maybe they would work as a negotiating technique to extract concessions on other things, but from an economic perspective it’s hard to see what tariffs accomplish—other than rapidly increasing prices for fuel and other goods that will hamper economic growth.
Furthermore, the actual announcement was on the extreme end of the spectrum of what was possible. George Saravelos, a strategist at Deutsche Bank, noted that the tariffs are three times larger than had been priced into the market—and five times as big as the cumulative action Trump took in his first term.
To be sure, Trump may yet de-escalate and walk back the levies—or be forced to do so by the courts or Congress. Given the market’s early losses Monday, it would still be a huge surprise if the tariffs lasted a long time—it certainly seems unlikely they will be in place for four years.
One thing is clear. Chaos and confusion will remain a feature of Trump’s policies.
Traders are shocked that a president who said he would place tariffs on countries with whom the U.S. has notable trade deficits has put tariffs on some of those countries. After Canada, Mexico and China, the European Union may be next.
The chart below from Goldman Sachs, shows how prediction markets late last week were not taking the tariff threat very seriously — setting up today’s reaction.
The chart (that won't copy) shows only a 30% probability as late as January 30 of "Effective Tariff Rate Reaching 5% in 1H 2025."
Expect the stock market “vigilantes” to force the Trump administration to do a face-saving backtrack in the near future.
The current market environment suggests that traders should adopt a strategy of “buy the dip and sell the rips.” The combination of negative surprises during earnings season and potential bearish policy announcements when the market is overbought will put downward pressure on stock prices. On the other hand, investors should trust the stock market vigilantes to activate the “Trump Put” in the event of a market downdraft, as the U.S. president is said to judge his own performance by the U.S. stock market. In the absence of a severe bearish catalyst, expect stock prices to bounce when the market becomes oversold.
“Our peaceful trading partners are not our enemies. they are our allies. We should beware of the demagogues who are ready to declare a trade war against our friends—weakening our economy, our national security, and the entire free world—all while cynically waving the American flag."
“Our peaceful trading partners are not our enemies. they are our allies. We should beware of the demagogues who are ready to declare a trade war against our friends—weakening our economy, our national security, and the entire free world—all while cynically waving the American flag."
- President Ronald Reagan
The modern Republican party is not the 'party of Reagan' anymore. It's morphed into the GQP-MAGA cult slavishly in thrall to the orange guy, where even long-held conservative principles are tossed aside for a short-term transactional win for one person only, not the country. Certainly not the world.
In Fiscal Year 2024, USCBP seized 21,148 pounds of fentanyl at the southwest border, mostly smuggled from Mexico. In contrast, only 43 pounds were intercepted at the northern border. This means that less than 1% of all fentanyl seizures occurred at the U.S.-Canada border.
So citing the stop of it flowing (sic) in from Canada as a reason to impose a 25% tariffs seems, well, insane.
Reagan was a bit before my time, although he easily won both of his elections (for better or worse). I posted it because I thought the quote was sadly relevant today, roughly 40 years later.
In Fiscal Year 2024, USCBP seized 21,148 pounds of fentanyl at the southwest border, mostly smuggled from Mexico. In contrast, only 43 pounds were intercepted at the northern border. This means that less than 1% of all fentanyl seizures occurred at the U.S.-Canada border.
So citing the stop of it flowing (sic) in from Canada as a reason to impose a 25% tariffs seems, well, insane.
Yeah.
Frankly I'm wonder how many of these antics (Canada, Panama, Greenland) the Naranja Suprema de Mar-a-Lago is attempting to create his own version of the Gleiwitz Incident.....
Reagan was a bit before my time, although he easily won both of his elections (for better or worse). I posted it because I thought the quote was sadly relevant today, roughly 40 years later.
Sadly relevant indeed. Sorry to call you out on that one, BUT many presidential and political historians, and countless Americans, point directly to Reagan's terms as the birthdate of current day MAGAts. Given all that, a brief preface to your original post would have seemed appropriate.
Sorry to call you out on that one, BUT many presidential and political historians, and countless Americans, point directly to Reagan's terms as the birthdate of current day MAGAts
'fentanyl' obviously polled best among MAGA for a trade war. runners-up were WASP discrimination in mexico, cold weather exports from canada, and probably proliferation of 'panda express' by china.
'fentanyl' obviously polled best among MAGA for a trade war. runners-up were WASP discrimination in mexico, cold weather exports from canada, and probably proliferation of 'panda express' by china.
Comments
Laws are only good if they are not only enacted, but enforced --- and they're often not, especially when it's convenient for those in charge.
I take some solace knowing the Big Money Thieves will do what they must to protect their own investments. My relative pittance might by the same token not be wiped out. Fingers crossed.
FOTUS was not duly punished for multiple crimes he has perpetrated.
It seems like laws often do not apply to people of his ilk!
----------------------------------
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-expected-to-open-lower-after-trump-tariffs-end-self-delusion-in-markets-ed9f5452?mod=mw_latestnews
(Subscription)
Excerpt:
Stock futures appeared headed to another “large gap down” on the daily charts following the news, said analysts at U.K.-based Matrix Trade, in a note. A gap on the daily chart occurs when an asset opens above or below its trading range from the previous session. Stocks opened sharply lower last week as investors reacted to China startup DeepSeek’s artificial-i-intelligence advance.
-----------------------------------
https://www.barrons.com/articles/trump-tariffs-inflation-trade-war-grocery-bills-cars-ba66b33e?mod=djem_b_Weekly Barrons feed for last 24 hours
(Subscription)
Excerpt:
The hit to markets will depend on what comes next—how Trump responds to retaliation, whether tariffs are lifted swiftly in response to dealmaking, and what’s to come on other trade fronts.
Some analysts say the markets weren’t prepared for the upheaval. “The currency markets will have massive move as the Mexico and Canada moves weren’t expected,” says Jens Nordvig, founder of Exante Data via email. “Then the question is if the equity market can handle it.”
Rebecca Patterson, former chief investment strategist at Bridgewater and independent director at Vanguard, says this opening salvo will increase inflation uncertainty and “make the Fed more cautious about its next policy decisions.” More uncertainty about growth could lead consumers and businesses to move more cautiously, she adds, and will be reflected in higher bond term premiums, “and less optimism about equities, especially those industries most exposed to tariffs. I also would expect the dollar to strengthen. ”
"Some analysts say the markets weren’t prepared for the upheaval."
Hasn't he been telegraphing it since the primaries or am I and many other market participants just that out of touch.
I think many thought he ain't this stoopid and wouldn't actually go thru with them, at least not at these levels. And it wasn't fully clarified until Friday that they were taking effect at the beginning of Feb.
Also, one of the articles I linked goes on to note how some currency markets really weren't pricing in this level (of stoopidity) and are likely to get rocked.
The ignorant orange idiot just said that tariffs against the EU are coming 'soon' .....
He really does want to blow up the world, doesn't he?
https://roberthubbell.substack.com/p/call-it-by-its-name-a-coup?r=y0bp&triedRedirect=true
"....outlets are not addressing the obvious coordinated nature of the unprecedented attacks on the DOJ, FBI, Office of Personnel Management, Treasury Department, and dozens of other agencies.
Taken together, those actions amount to a hostile takeover of the US government by those who are loyal to Trump rather than to the US Constitution. The only word that accurately describes that situation is “coup.” Any other description is a sign of fear, submission, or surrender."
Canada is already expecting Recession, big jump in unemployment, a hit to the Loonie. Featured here are: conflicting signals from the Orange "Administration;" trying to know Trumpster's mind; realizing that he is like a shark who can smell blood. Surely,Trump's been told that the Trudeau gummint is by now a caretaker. A lame duck. "Canada catches the flu whenever the US catches a cold."
https://www.cbc.ca/listen/live-radio/1-57-the-sunday-magazine/clip/16125416-the-implications-donald-trumps-tariffs-canadian-goods
Our country has been hijacked by an ex reality tv show host - I only wish somebody could shout in his orange face "YOUR FIRED".
EU imports went from $200b in year 2000 to 600b now; whereas Canada imports went from $200b to 400b. I am sure EU membership has expanded during that period but still that much more imports from a region that presumably is a nursing home makes me think what the hell have we been. China and HK went from 100b to 440b, after hitting nearly 600b a few years ago. Mexico is the biggest beneficiary going from 100b to 500b. Japan stayed steady more or less around 150b, which means as a percentage of our GDP, imports from Japan fell drastically. My earlier comments about China diversifying their exports to the US can be seen in the data.
In any case, given so much illegal immigration is from (and through) Mexico, I think providing serious disincentive to Mexico was warranted 20-30 years ago. This is not a new problem. The biggest beneficiary US industries of illegal immigration must have now decided they received too many than they want. Mexico has had governance problems for as long as I can remember. Why were not illegal immigration and drugs tied into trade agreements for all these years? So, all the public reasoning provided for current Tariffs does not add up for me. Show me what is behind the curtain. Makes me think neither the illegal immigration nor drugs from Mexico will be solved in my lifetime.
Trump Tariffs Cause Stock Market Chaos. Why Wall Street Didn’t Act on Warnings and 5 Other Things to Know Today.
President Donald Trump looks set to deliver on his promise and impose hefty tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, with Europe next in his sights. Amid all the turbulence that’s causing in financial markets, one question is obvious—why is this such a surprise?
After all, this is what Trump promised to do since he started his campaign to retake the White House. He reiterated it after he was elected in November. He even gave specific numbers and dates for a start last week.
But traders were still skeptical that anything material would come of it. Stocks rose markedly in January, extending impressive gains since Trump’s victory in November on optimism that deregulation and tax cuts would bolster corporate earnings.
The reason investors dismissed the rather obvious signs was because the tariffs don’t seem to make sense. Maybe they would work as a negotiating technique to extract concessions on other things, but from an economic perspective it’s hard to see what tariffs accomplish—other than rapidly increasing prices for fuel and other goods that will hamper economic growth.
Furthermore, the actual announcement was on the extreme end of the spectrum of what was possible. George Saravelos, a strategist at Deutsche Bank, noted that the tariffs are three times larger than had been priced into the market—and five times as big as the cumulative action Trump took in his first term.
To be sure, Trump may yet de-escalate and walk back the levies—or be forced to do so by the courts or Congress. Given the market’s early losses Monday, it would still be a huge surprise if the tariffs lasted a long time—it certainly seems unlikely they will be in place for four years.
One thing is clear. Chaos and confusion will remain a feature of Trump’s policies.
https://trkmw.dowjones.com/view/66e9c5e92241b007af32ae7cmvzxu.28i6/20a0998b
(Subscription)
Excerpt:
Traders are shocked that a president who said he would place tariffs on countries with whom the U.S. has notable trade deficits has put tariffs on some of those countries. After Canada, Mexico and China, the European Union may be next.
The chart below from Goldman Sachs, shows how prediction markets late last week were not taking the tariff threat very seriously — setting up today’s reaction.
The chart (that won't copy) shows only a 30% probability as late as January 30 of "Effective Tariff Rate Reaching 5% in 1H 2025."
Trust the Buffoon Put?
Here's one take on all that.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-the-dip-and-sell-the-rips-stock-traders-are-counting-on-the-trump-put-e7017958?mod=watchlist_latest_news
(Subscription)
Excerpt:
Expect the stock market “vigilantes” to force the Trump administration to do a face-saving backtrack in the near future.
The current market environment suggests that traders should adopt a strategy of “buy the dip and sell the rips.” The combination of negative surprises during earnings season and potential bearish policy announcements when the market is overbought will put downward pressure on stock prices. On the other hand, investors should trust the stock market vigilantes to activate the “Trump Put” in the event of a market downdraft, as the U.S. president is said to judge his own performance by the U.S. stock market. In the absence of a severe bearish catalyst, expect stock prices to bounce when the market becomes oversold.
- President Ronald Reagan
I trust many will find invoking Reagan here as a voice of reason of sorts to be rich!
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/sep/21/ronald-reagan-trump-comparisons-book-max-boot
Did Reagan pave the way for Trump? ‘You can trace the linkages,’ says biographer
https://www.forbes.com/sites/andyjsemotiuk/2025/01/31/tariff-on-canada-not-justified-by-us-immigration-and-drug-claims/
Excerpt: (BOLD added):
In Fiscal Year 2024, USCBP seized 21,148 pounds of fentanyl at the southwest border, mostly smuggled from Mexico. In contrast, only 43 pounds were intercepted at the northern border. This means that less than 1% of all fentanyl seizures occurred at the U.S.-Canada border.
So citing the stop of it flowing (sic) in from Canada as a reason to impose a 25% tariffs seems, well, insane.
Frankly I'm wonder how many of these antics (Canada, Panama, Greenland) the Naranja Suprema de Mar-a-Lago is attempting to create his own version of the Gleiwitz Incident.....
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Make_America_Great_Again#:~:text=Originally used by Ronald Reagan,whistle politics and coded language.
Yes, this is what I'm learning!
'fentanyl' obviously polled best among MAGA for a trade war.
runners-up were WASP discrimination in mexico, cold weather exports from canada, and probably proliferation of 'panda express' by china.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/03/trump-tariffs-mexico-canada-china-sheinbaum-responds.html