Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Let me see. In 2023-4, the SP500 made over 50%. In the last 15 years, about 13.8% annually.
* Valuation are high * The next 2 years will not be as good as the last 2 years. * There is a good chance the SP500 will go down 10-15% in the next 2 years. WOW
A very quick look shows that VIX(SP500 SD) < 15 MOVE(treasury SD)=87=low SP500 is in an uptrend. I don't need to check beyond that.
My big picture = "normal" market = I'm invested at 99+% for several months now.
but you're invested 99+% in bonds, not the SP500, and in "special" bonds that don't move the way most bond funds move, so your so-called big picture has no real relevancy, as per usual, to your own personal big picture, more or less, give or take.
A very quick look shows that VIX(SP500 SD) < 15 MOVE(treasury SD)=87=low SP500 is in an uptrend. I don't need to check beyond that.
My big picture = "normal" market = I'm invested at 99+% for several months now.
but you're invested 99+% in bonds, not the SP500, and in "special" bonds that don't move the way most bond funds move, so you're so-called big picture has no real relevancy, as per usual, to your own personal big picture, more or less, give or take.
Cut the guy some slack - he has an almost 97% success rate predicting the past..
A very quick look shows that VIX(SP500 SD) < 15 MOVE(treasury SD)=87=low SP500 is in an uptrend. I don't need to check beyond that.
My big picture = "normal" market = I'm invested at 99+% for several months now.
but you're invested 99+% in bonds, not the SP500, and in "special" bonds that don't move the way most bond funds move, so your so-called big picture has no real relevancy, as per usual, to your own personal big picture, more or less, give or take.
I have been saying the following over 15 years in all the sites I post. All my posts are generic, without any connection to what and how I invest, unless I specially discuss my system. The big picture is another generic comment. I make comments on CEFs and never owned them more than short term. I posted for years about retirement, LTC, when to take SS when I was younger. Is your view that you can only have an opinion based on what you own or do?
So, what would I do specifically with my portfolio? I would be invested at 99% regardless if I have stocks or bonds. I have used stocks for decades. You can disregard all my opinions but why trash it based on no real data.
Bond fund managers are able to keep FD away but the posters in this forum are sitting ducks. Just deal with his relentless abuse.
I would like a forum feature to ignore a thread so I do not visit it once it starts going downhill.
I have one foot out of the door here.
BTW, good writing is like a good peace of art, you can enjoy it no matter its content. Because I do not write well, I really appreciate and enjoy good writing. Agree that @linters writes well and he should consider posting more often.
"Don't bet against a secular bull market advance!" We're all trained, or brainwashed, if you will, to believe that the next major stock market top is at hand or just around the corner. It completely immobilizes us when it comes to having belief in the major advance at hand. Give us a bit of selling and we'll quickly point out the likely recession and swift stock market drop ahead. Two weeks ago, reigniting inflation was a major concern and the S&P 500 was 5% off its high. Today, we're in all-time high territory after the ACTUAL inflation data said that inflation is NOT a problem. Or we can just be blindfolded and keep tuning into the circus that is CNBC.
Drown out the noise and all the bearish rhetoric, and instead focus on one of my favorite charts. This is a 100-year monthly chart of the S&P 500:....
The next time you think, "is this the start of the next secular bear market?", I want you to remember one thing. There have been TWO starts to secular bear markets in my entire lifetime - the early 1970s and the turn of the century as the dot com bubble popped. That's it. Just stop trying to call the 3rd one. There have only been 14 cyclical bear markets since 1950, which means that, on average, we see only one of these lesser bear markets every 5-6 years. Since 2018, we've had 3 of them (2018, 2020, 2022). That's waaaaay more than our fair share. Let the bulls do their thing.
If you look back above to the 100-year chart, you'll see that the S&P 500's monthly PPO is accelerating to the upside, telling us that long-term bullish momentum just keeps building. Bear markets don't begin until that monthly PPO moves into negative territory.
Let's play a game. The only way I declare Marks a winner is if 2 things happen in 2025. The SP500 must lose more than 20% + it's down for the year. If we are in a bubble, it should be an easy test.
The S&P 500 may experience a bear market or it may gain more than 25% for the third consecutive year. No one, including Howard Marks or Tom Bowley, knows the actual outcome. Bowley appears to be a short-term momentum trader. How is Bowley's commentary relevant for typical long-term stock investors?
I thought David Giroux is the gold standard and now that it is revealed he has a SPY target of 5,300 for end of 2025, we move on to someone else who will vouch for what we want.
Too many posters in this forum have become propagandists / activists and as with all those in that elk they never change their opinion / ways, evidence or context be damned, rather they are in constant pursuit of confirmation of information to suit their propaganda.
In terms of their impact, these posters are no different from those that bang my front door hard (not withstanding there is a calling bell switch right next to the door handle) to tell me their version of God (and Jesus). Last night, an 18 yr old kid did that and I asked him why it was necessary to be so impolite and inconvenience others to bang the door? He said with a straight face that he was trying to get our attention to God and Jesus. No sorry or remorse. People have lost their minds so much they no longer see or hear others as human beings. Last night, that kid reminded me of some posters in this forum.
”If I want to get an opinion, I read it from one of the best in business, David R. Giroux, the guy who runs PRWCX, T. Rowe Price Group Chief Investment Officer, + more who publishes his thoughts a couple of times annually.”
“MFO monthly issue is also a good source for information and insight, and the site has meaningful data for investors.”
Agree with FD on both above points. However, saying a market is way overvalued and then watching it suddenly unravel are two different things. Froth can persist for a very long time - even for years. I note this because both Giroux and (even more so) the Observer have made reference to overvaluation for a considerable while.
I have a lot of trouble deciphering exactly how FD is positioned. Maybe my fault for not following his posts carefully enough. Consider, however, that excess money flowing into the hottest sectors might be creating some reasonable values in less popular sectors. With that in mind I did ramp up risk exposure a bit the past couple weeks. Still cautious at around 40% equity and 10% in other risk assets (metals, real estate, preferreds and infrastructure). I’m overweight non-U.S. assets - a hedge of sorts should the dollar weaken.
@Mark - Thanks. Great thread. Very timely. Marks’ expertise is in distressed debt. But his keen observations re risk / reward provide excellent perspective on the equity markets. He’s one of my favorites.
Bloomberg reports downloads of Six PackDeep SixSink Deep DeepSeek are running silly hot today at Apple’s App store. Are those real aficionados of the new app? Or maybe mostly folks who are short NVDA trying to drive it down? Wonder if Apple limits how many times one individual can download same app?
Thanks for the informative chart @bee / Bloomberg’s talking heads today report that a leveraged 2X QQQ etf drew in very high sums last week. It’s best week ever!
Necessity is the mother of invention. US companies have lost their minds with unlimited access to capital and Nvidia chips. So, they did not have to be disciplined. A $500B joke!
Corporate America is always trying to out grift American politicians. Both these cast of characters have conditioned us not to question their motives until conditions become extreme.
Jensen Haung knew today is coming, based on his behavior over the past few weeks. But all my cousins in Tech keep drinking the cool aid.
Today is too soon for me to buy any American company.
Bloomberg reports that NVDA set a record today for biggest dollar loss in a single day by any company.
Lead sentence from longer article at Bloomberg Media LLC online site: ”Nvidia Corp's plunge, fueled by investor concern about Chinese artificial-intelligence startup DeepSeek, erased a record amount of stock-market value from the world's largest company.”
Good day to make sense of various tickers in one’s watch list / portfolio. We are also in earnings season and so make sure to account for earnings release related news before jumping to conclusions.
Necessity is the mother of invention. US companies have lost their minds with unlimited access to capital and Nvidia chips. So, they did not have to be disciplined. A $500B joke!
Corporate America is always trying to out grift American politicians. Both these cast of characters have conditioned us not to question their motives until conditions become extreme.
Jensen Haung knew today is coming, based on his behavior over the past few weeks. But all my cousins in Tech keep drinking the cool aid.
Today is too soon for me to buy any American company.
I am often reminded of the guy that built the Gossamer Albatross. I saw him on the speaking circuit back in 1979. IIRC, he asked Dupont why they gave him 200K to build his human-powered airplane. He said they told him that it would cost them 10 million to do the same thing.
My point for years is that future predictions is a fool errand. I have never invested based on the future, only based on current markets and they can be illogical and longer than anyone can predict.
Thanks for sharing. Good reminder that grifting in Corporate America is as old as money.
They gave MacReady a grant. Of course he used a lot of Dupont products, IIRC. In this particular case, somebody at Dupont understood the friction of large organizations, existing investments, etc.
I worked in both large public and large private companies. There is a lot of grifting in large public companies. With our conversation, all my unpleasant memories about this came back flooding (I happen to have a short memory for unpleasant things). Large private companies used to be more disciplined but these days there are a lot of large venture backed private companies, which exhibit a lot of moral hazard w/r/t cash use / allocation, especially those private companies that are venture backed by large public companies. Many of the ventured backed private companies these days do not have the founder / employee liquidity constraints as they offer employees an opportunity to sell on the secondary market. I was involved in writing off billions of dollars of such misallocations, not counting the amounts paid to the biggest of the hoggers, the large consulting companies.
That inauguration photo with the big tech CEOs was chilling for the direction we are headed. Complete regulatory capture!
Tom Bowley's latest video from pre-market on Tuesday -
He is pretty dour on the market and says be prepared for a 10% correction in SPX, down to 5500. I do not recall Tom being this downbeat about the market in the past couple of years.
What a difference a day makes. Of course, it would mean nothing to the peanut gallery.
Comments
In the last 15 years, about 13.8% annually.
* Valuation are high
* The next 2 years will not be as good as the last 2 years.
* There is a good chance the SP500 will go down 10-15% in the next 2 years.
WOW
Irreverence is in vogue. It speaks volumes about comprehension skills.
blame it on David Snowball.
P.S.: Prof Damodaran discloses his stock investments and trades.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=32TLpx5w3dc
VIX(SP500 SD) < 15
MOVE(treasury SD)=87=low
SP500 is in an uptrend.
I don't need to check beyond that.
My big picture = "normal" market = I'm invested at 99+% for several months now.
but you're invested 99+% in bonds, not the SP500, and in "special" bonds that don't move the way most bond funds move, so your so-called big picture has no real relevancy, as per usual, to your own personal big picture, more or less, give or take.
+1, pure gold.
Yet he never, ever holds Equities. Hmmmm.....
All my posts are generic, without any connection to what and how I invest, unless I specially discuss my system.
The big picture is another generic comment.
I make comments on CEFs and never owned them more than short term.
I posted for years about retirement, LTC, when to take SS when I was younger.
Is your view that you can only have an opinion based on what you own or do?
So, what would I do specifically with my portfolio? I would be invested at 99% regardless if I have stocks or bonds. I have used stocks for decades.
You can disregard all my opinions but why trash it based on no real data.
Bond fund managers are able to keep FD away but the posters in this forum are sitting ducks. Just deal with his relentless abuse.
I would like a forum feature to ignore a thread so I do not visit it once it starts going downhill.
I have one foot out of the door here.
BTW, good writing is like a good peace of art, you can enjoy it no matter its content. Because I do not write well, I really appreciate and enjoy good writing. Agree that @linters writes well and he should consider posting more often.
Quote Let's play a game. The only way I declare Marks a winner is if 2 things happen in 2025. The SP500 must lose more than 20% + it's down for the year.
If we are in a bubble, it should be an easy test.
No one, including Howard Marks or Tom Bowley, knows the actual outcome.
Bowley appears to be a short-term momentum trader.
How is Bowley's commentary relevant for typical long-term stock investors?
Too many posters in this forum have become propagandists / activists and as with all those in that elk they never change their opinion / ways, evidence or context be damned, rather they are in constant pursuit of confirmation of information to suit their propaganda.
In terms of their impact, these posters are no different from those that bang my front door hard (not withstanding there is a calling bell switch right next to the door handle) to tell me their version of God (and Jesus). Last night, an 18 yr old kid did that and I asked him why it was necessary to be so impolite and inconvenience others to bang the door? He said with a straight face that he was trying to get our attention to God and Jesus. No sorry or remorse. People have lost their minds so much they no longer see or hear others as human beings. Last night, that kid reminded me of some posters in this forum.
I have a lot of trouble deciphering exactly how FD is positioned. Maybe my fault for not following his posts carefully enough. Consider, however, that excess money flowing into the hottest sectors might be creating some reasonable values in less popular sectors. With that in mind I did ramp up risk exposure a bit the past couple weeks. Still cautious at around 40% equity and 10% in other risk assets (metals, real estate, preferreds and infrastructure). I’m overweight non-U.S. assets - a hedge of sorts should the dollar weaken.
@Mark - Thanks. Great thread. Very timely. Marks’ expertise is in distressed debt. But his keen observations re risk / reward provide excellent perspective on the equity markets. He’s one of my favorites.
how-far-out-of-whack-are-fund-investors-asset-allocations-800-billion-give-or-take
Stay tuned.
If the results from DeepSeek are as impressive as Nadella/MSFT and others say, then the mixture-of-experts (MoE) for AI training will soon be adopted by other AI models. But it will change the nature of the AI race - from throwing $billions to using specialized approaches.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/27/nvidia-falls-10percent-in-premarket-trading-as-chinas-deepseek-triggers-global-tech-sell-off.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mixture_of_experts
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepSeek
Six PackDeep SixSink DeepDeepSeek are running silly hot today at Apple’s App store. Are those real aficionados of the new app? Or maybe mostly folks who are short NVDA trying to drive it down? Wonder if Apple limits how many times one individual can download same app?Necessity is the mother of invention. US companies have lost their minds with unlimited access to capital and Nvidia chips. So, they did not have to be disciplined. A $500B joke!
Corporate America is always trying to out grift American politicians. Both these cast of characters have conditioned us not to question their motives until conditions become extreme.
Jensen Haung knew today is coming, based on his behavior over the past few weeks. But all my cousins in Tech keep drinking the cool aid.
Today is too soon for me to buy any American company.
Lead sentence from longer article at Bloomberg Media LLC online site: ”Nvidia Corp's plunge, fueled by investor concern about Chinese artificial-intelligence startup DeepSeek, erased a record amount of stock-market value from the world's largest company.”
Biggest Single-Day Market Cap Losses
1 Nvidia $-465B 1/27/25
2 Nvidia -279 9/3/24
3 Meta -251 2/3/22
4 Nvidia -228 1/7/25
5 Nvidia -212 4/19/24
6 Nvidia -208 6/24/24
7 Amazon -206 4/29/22
8 Nvidia -205 7/17/24
9 Nvidia -205 7/24/24
10 Nvidia -197 8/29/24
Good day to make sense of various tickers in one’s watch list / portfolio. We are also in earnings season and so make sure to account for earnings release related news before jumping to conclusions.
I have never invested based on the future, only based on current markets and they can be illogical and longer than anyone can predict.
I worked in both large public and large private companies. There is a lot of grifting in large public companies. With our conversation, all my unpleasant memories about this came back flooding (I happen to have a short memory for unpleasant things). Large private companies used to be more disciplined but these days there are a lot of large venture backed private companies, which exhibit a lot of moral hazard w/r/t cash use / allocation, especially those private companies that are venture backed by large public companies. Many of the ventured backed private companies these days do not have the founder / employee liquidity constraints as they offer employees an opportunity to sell on the secondary market. I was involved in writing off billions of dollars of such misallocations, not counting the amounts paid to the biggest of the hoggers, the large consulting companies.
That inauguration photo with the big tech CEOs was chilling for the direction we are headed. Complete regulatory capture!
He is pretty dour on the market and says be prepared for a 10% correction in SPX, down to 5500. I do not recall Tom being this downbeat about the market in the past couple of years.
What a difference a day makes. Of course, it would mean nothing to the peanut gallery.