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"Exactly 25 years ago today, I published the first memo that brought a response from readers (after having written for almost ten years without receiving any). The memo was called bubble.com, and the subject was the irrational behavior I thought was taking place with respect to tech, internet, and e-commerce stocks."
One lessen that stuck with me from the 2000 bubble bursting was how ridiculously high the markets felt to me by the end of 1998. And yet we still went on to another positive year before the markets would finally turn south.
“The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent” - economist John Maynard Keynes. Yep, it's tough to bet against US equities.
I've learned never to expect anything. But its ok to hope for better BUY opportunities ahead. There had been much complacency in the markets until recently. Volatility can be a good thing.
It seems like others here are waiting for a drop, too.
It seems like others here are waiting for a drop, too.
Non-U.S. equity + “other” = 30% of my portfolio / U.S. equity = 18% (remainder fixed income) Not necessarily “waiting” for the drop. Just allocating risk as best I can. Certainly might be wrong.
Marks is good. I recall he made a “buy” call pretty close to the bottom in ‘22. Received some discussion here.
The P/E for Mag 7 is even higher. To believe they will have positive return you have to believe there will be “greater fools “ to buy your shares at a higher price, the P/E will go even higher (TSLA is now somewhere north of 70), or earnings will quadruple +
Well Musk just got himself another tax deduction for donating a bunch of fire bombs/trash cans (cyber trucks) for LA fire relief efforts. Maybe his auditors can use that to add to his earnings or bottomline.
I like to look at some of TRP’s funds’ performance for insights because I know several pretty well from once residing there. Not a recommendation - but there might be some opportunity for long term investors in real assets (PRAFX at TRP) and in real estate (TRREX at TRP). I base this solely on the observation that they’ve fallen quite a bit from their 5 year highs. In a bit of a trough currently. No guarantees. I have very limited exposure to those two areas, Own neither of the funds mentioned.
I've reduced equity by a substantial slug. Down to 44% of total. If Giroux is saying it won't probably be a great year, I'm not panicking, but paying attention. Let the monthlies roll in from my junk. Re-investing them. Lucky with my two single stocks. They're divvie payers, too.
I did some dip-buying recently (JQUA, TCAF, SPHQ) and now that I have made a few thou from them I may bail out of everything tomorrow or Fri, meaning that the only equity I will hold will be the accursed CCOR. I am not expecting 800-pt days after Monday, he foolishly predicted.
Also sold out of total loser (years) bond funds; ~4.2% at ML and Fido looks good to me for now.
Mr. Market always overreacts, both to good and bad news. Today it was hyper-goo-goo- lovely. Watch for the day-traders cashing in, in the morning..... Nice to own the "right" kinda single-stocks on a day like Wednesday, today. Really juiced performance. I gotta find a new (additional) drug: those stocks are scraping against a hard limit re: size in the portf. PRWCX did very well today, despite defensive positioning. Its one-day performance represents what happened in the full portf.
Several large banks reported healthy earning on 1/15/25. This helped to move the market upward. Depending on the source, the interpretation of CPI is different ?
Unsure whether bonds are better opportunities than stocks in light of the high valuation? Feel like the time period prior to the 2000’s internet bubble.
Comments
“The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent” - economist John Maynard Keynes. Yep, it's tough to bet against US equities.
I've learned never to expect anything. But its ok to hope for better BUY opportunities ahead. There had been much complacency in the markets until recently. Volatility can be a good thing.
It seems like others here are waiting for a drop, too.
%TR = %Dividend_yield + %Earnings_growth + %Change_in_P/E.
So, if the starting P/E is high, the 3rd term will likely have a negative contribution.
Not necessarily “waiting” for the drop. Just allocating risk as best I can. Certainly might be wrong.
Marks is good. I recall he made a “buy” call pretty close to the bottom in ‘22. Received some discussion here.
There seems to be some rotation in the markets for now. Slow decline off the highs, nothing violent. Kind of a big yawner.
2024 +25.02%.
2023 +26.29%.
2022 -18.11%. (neg)
2021 +28.71%.
2020 +18.40%.
2019 +31.49%.
2018 -4.38%. (neg)
2017 +21.83%.
2016 +11.96%.
2015 +1.38%.
”If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck …..”
Source of data
I like to look at some of TRP’s funds’ performance for insights because I know several pretty well from once residing there. Not a recommendation - but there might be some opportunity for long term investors in real assets (PRAFX at TRP) and in real estate (TRREX at TRP). I base this solely on the observation that they’ve fallen quite a bit from their 5 year highs. In a bit of a trough currently. No guarantees. I have very limited exposure to those two areas, Own neither of the funds mentioned.
No bubbles - nothing to see here. The CPI report calmed all nerves.
For those of us with cash, it would have been nice to see stocks (and bonds) "go on sale" a bit. But alas, Mr. Market has other ideas for now.
I am not expecting 800-pt days after Monday, he foolishly predicted.
Also sold out of total loser (years) bond funds; ~4.2% at ML and Fido looks good to me for now.
Looking forward to how the market digests our new economic policies after Jan 20th.
me too
have (barely) enough in retirement (expensive state and town), not all that many years left (mid-70s), concur in all the takes re ultrahigh P/Es, etc.
my greed needs to be strongly managed, though
Pricy up there.
Unsure whether bonds are better opportunities than stocks in light of the high valuation? Feel like the time period prior to the 2000’s internet bubble.