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It appears to me the dippers went way overboard on their Christmas buying! Guessing I'll be watching before selling more in 2024. I dislike paying penalty for not enough withholding! I've taken my RMD's at a lower tax withholding so will wait a few more days before selling anything. Happy New Year to All, Derf
And yet, no recession, but no Santa Claus rally, either. End-of-year buying-sentiment was apparently beat out by tax loss harvesting. Did fund managers sit this one out, with New Year's Day on the horizon?
I tried to buy on Tuesday, but my target, CLF, suddenly reversed course and finished up about 1% on the day. This year, I am going public with my infallible market-timing scheme and I will do so by becoming an INFLUENCER. Watch out below!
You have to give FD credit for his brilliant trading scheme and impeccable hindsight analysis. He remains humble and open-minded despite his apparently very prosperous investing career. This is not the demeanor typically associated with someone who believes he is "the smartest guy in the room."
Well, with the S&P up 24% last year, you can bet FD easily doubled that! (Probably 50-75% )
I sit right at 35% equity exposure - mostly unpopular stuff - half of it non-U.S.. Don’t want to make a lot, just a little. I can’t ever recall being much lower than 35% - maybe in the lead up to the 2000 episode. Long time ago.
I know that none of you can do it; just keep quacking. I already have heard it for at least 15 years. Remember, I was told that I don't have a clue; I will never retire, I will never make it in retirement and timing + low SD could not be done. The reality is completely different. I only need about 1% from my portfolio to keep my nice lifestyle for decades without any pension or an inheritance.
Observant1: hindsight? FD: It's much easier to throw stones. Many of my trades and analysis are on my site. You may learn something. I also have several trades I made in the past several years where I sold before major meltdowns in 2020 and 2022 and when I bought back.
Very interesting commentary, FD. The administrator for another investing forum recently wrote:
"FD1000 I am getting complaints that repeated, gloating posts are obnoxious. Would you please think twice before posting, whether you haven't already said the same thing on multiple (many) occasions? Remember too, before repeating how great your system is, that your LT record is probably crushed by the majority who have owned stocks (especially after tax). (Yes, we KNOW you don't want to lose more than X% from any top, you're happy not to have participated in the Mag-7 bull, etc. etc.)"
You may want to tread carefully or otherwise be subjected to yet another dreaded suspension. Would this be the fourth or fifth suspension you've experienced on this particular forum? By the way, Happy New Year!
@Observant1, I'm still waiting for you to prove my hindsight; after all, it's not the first time you claimed it. I never claimed to be the smartest in the room or that I made the most. BTW, I also don't attack posters personally; I just use analysis and actual numbers. It's about time, you do it too. Happy new year, and I hope you make 30% every year. I love when investors make money.
@Observant1, I'm still waiting for you to prove my hindsight; after all, it's not the first time you claimed it. I never claimed to be the smartest in the room or that I made the most. BTW, I also don't attack posters personally; I just use analysis and actual numbers. It's about time, you do it too. Happy new year, and I hope you make 30% every year. I love when investors make money.
Comments
Unbelievable content. Who knows if it will prove contrarian?
And yet, no recession, but no Santa Claus rally, either. End-of-year buying-sentiment was apparently beat out by tax loss harvesting. Did fund managers sit this one out, with New Year's Day on the horizon?
-The S&P 500 was up 24% in 2024, compared to a 24.2% rise in 2023. It was the strongest two-year performance since the late 1990s.
-The tech-heavy Nasdaq climbed 30.8%, versus 43.4% last year.
-The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 12.8%, compared to 28.4% in 2023.
-The Russell 2000, an index of small-cap stocks, gained 10.9%, compared to 2023's 15.1%.
Thanks @JD_co for the numbers.
Most of my buys are in bonds, not so much stocks. Perhaps when stocks are at better prices in 2025.
It's about time that ol' FD had some competition!
He's like Nostradamus, Miss Cleo and Orange all wrapped in one person.
You have to give FD credit for his brilliant trading scheme and impeccable hindsight analysis.
He remains humble and open-minded despite his apparently very prosperous investing career.
This is not the demeanor typically associated with someone who believes he is "the smartest guy in the room."
I sit right at 35% equity exposure - mostly unpopular stuff - half of it non-U.S.. Don’t want to make a lot, just a little. I can’t ever recall being much lower than 35% - maybe in the lead up to the 2000 episode. Long time ago.
I didn't beat the SP500 in 2023-4. Not even close, and I don't need it.
It's all at (https://fd1000.freeforums.net/post/446)
I know that none of you can do it; just keep quacking. I already have heard it for at least 15 years.
Remember, I was told that I don't have a clue; I will never retire, I will never make it in retirement and timing + low SD could not be done.
The reality is completely different. I only need about 1% from my portfolio to keep my nice lifestyle for decades without any pension or an inheritance.
Observant1: hindsight?
FD: It's much easier to throw stones. Many of my trades and analysis are on my site. You may learn something.
I also have several trades I made in the past several years where I sold before major meltdowns in 2020 and 2022 and when I bought back.
The administrator for another investing forum recently wrote:
"FD1000 I am getting complaints that repeated, gloating posts are obnoxious.
Would you please think twice before posting, whether you haven't already said
the same thing on multiple (many) occasions?
Remember too, before repeating how great your system is, that your LT record
is probably crushed by the majority who have owned stocks (especially after tax).
(Yes, we KNOW you don't want to lose more than X% from any top,
you're happy not to have participated in the Mag-7 bull, etc. etc.)"
You may want to tread carefully or otherwise be subjected to yet another dreaded suspension.
Would this be the fourth or fifth suspension you've experienced on this particular forum?
By the way, Happy New Year!
@BenWP.
I'm still waiting for you to prove my hindsight; after all, it's not the first time you claimed it.
I never claimed to be the smartest in the room or that I made the most.
BTW, I also don't attack posters personally; I just use analysis and actual numbers. It's about time, you do it too.
Happy new year, and I hope you make 30% every year. I love when investors make money.