Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
The 20% gain in the S&P 500 is the best start to a year since 1997 and 17th best in history.
Retail sales grew 2.1% over the last year, well below the historical average of 4.6%. And if we adjust for higher prices, they actually fell 0.5% versus the typical inflation-adjusted gain of 2%.
The Personal Savings Rate in the US has moved down to 2.9% . . .The average savings rate over the last 30 years is 5.8%.
The months’ supply of Existing Homes has moved up to 4.2
[If I remove from the chart the 2005 to 2012 years supply skewed by housing fraud, 4.2 months supply looks pretty normal to me on the chart. Existing home supply seems pretty good and if there is not enough demand, then watch for prices to come down.]
20 Rules for Markets and Investing... 00:00 Intro 00:20 Rule #1: Be humble. 01:11 Rule #2: Don't trust, verify. 02:57 Rule #3: Play the long game. 05:24 Rule #4: Understand that every time is different. 07:41 Rule #5: Pay no heed to predictions and price targets. 09:24 Rule #6: Embrace risk. 10:47 Rule #7: Buy the haystack. 13:16 Rule #8: Fight the Fed. 16:43 Rule #9: Expect the unexpected. 18:10 Rule #10: Don't chase the past. 20:16 Rule #11: Focus on saving before investing. 23:42 Rule #12: Simplify whenever possible. 26:27 Rule #13: Learn to be good at suffering. 27:54 Rule #14: Never interrupt compounding unnecessarily. 29:29 Rule #15: Tune out the noise. 32:01 Rule #16: Respect reversion to the mean. 34:15 Rule #17: Know what you own and why you own it. 39:36 Rule #18: Diversify, diversify, diversify. 41:44 Rule #19: Control your emotions. 44:05 Rule #20: Value time over money.
The most important charts and themes in markets and investing, including: 00:00 Intro 00:19 Free Wealth Path Analysis 01:04 Topics 01:57 The Resilient Jobs Market 04:41 Labor Market: Still Cooling 08:34 Big Shift in Fed Easing Expectations 10:52 Bond Market Got Ahead of Itself 14:32 China Goes Parabolic 22:45 Declining Dividend Yields 25:25 More Affordable Rents
S&P 500 - second Lowest ever dividend yield (1.27%) and highest P/E (25) and highest P/S (3.0)
For a different context, current S&P 500 forward P/E is 21.6 while the highest forward P/E ever was in 1999 at 25.5. If one thinks we are far in bubbly territory, I guess we are from frothy territory?
Yet for a different context, the S&P 500 forward P/E has increased from 15.3 during the October 12, 2022 week to the current 21.6. So give or take the P/E has increased about 40% while the price increased 60% during this period.
May be someone here can give their analysis of whether P is running sustainably too far ahead of the increase in E.
I must state the old refrain - valuation is a bad timing tool.
The most important charts and themes in markets and investing, including: 00:00 Intro 00:16 Free Wealth Path Analysis 00:54 Topics 01:41 Rising Prices at a Slower Pace 06:05 Market Expectations = Fed Expectations 13:24 The Rate Cut Tradeoff 16:39 Why Mortgage Rates Rose After the Fed Cut 21:50 What Are They Trying to Hide? 24:55 The Goldilocks Moment 29:56 Rising Real Wages
Item 4 discusses the cumulative increase in major CPI categories over the past 4 years and shows Medical care at 8% and Auto insurance at 60%. Why are we measuring Medical care, rather than Medical insurance? My medical insurance probably went up 60%. I already know my next year medical premium increase is 15%. CPI probably has measurement problem.
Item 8. US HY Credit spreads at 2.89% is the lowest since 2007. SPY dividend yield at 1.27%(tied with Q4 2021) is the lowest since 1999. Nothing to see here?
"High Yield Spreads are now at their tightest levels since June 2007 (2.89%) and Investment Grade Spreads at their tightest levels since March 2005 (0.83%). Bond investors are reaching for yield and behaving as if there will never be a default cycle again."
"Rents have been held down by a multi-family construction boom that significantly increased supply and is leading to the highest vacancy rates (6.7%) since 2020."
"And wage growth of close to 4% over the past year was 1.5% higher than the increase in CPI inflation. That was the 17th straight month in which wages outpaced inflation over the prior year, a great trend for the American worker that hopefully continues."
The most important charts and themes in markets and investing, including: 00:00 Intro 00:35 Topics 02:00 How Everything Could Change over the Next 10 Years 17:52 The AI-Driven Multiple Expansion 28:29 Reaching for Yield Like It's 2007 35:00 Rise of the Bond Vigilantes 44:06 Stock Picking Is Hard, Netflix Edition 46:09 Are Workers Today Better off Than 50 Years Ago?
I listened to a very tiny little bit of it. They were talking about how the 2014 predictions said small cap were going to do better than large cap over the next 10 years LOL. I then closed it.
I listened to a very tiny little bit of it. They were talking about how the 2014 predictions said small cap were going to do better than large cap over the next 10 years LOL. I then closed it.
"High Yield Spreads are now at their tightest levels since June 2007 (2.89%) and Investment Grade Spreads at their tightest levels since March 2005 (0.83%). Bond investors are reaching for yield and behaving as if there will never be a default cycle again."
I moved a portion of floating rate bonds to investment grade bonds several months ago in light of the spread is getting smaller. So far the floating rate bonds keep on moving up while the IG bonds stay flat or went down. Go figure! The economy seems to moving along well, so I pause…
The most important charts and themes in markets and investing, including: 00:00 Intro 00:55 Topics 02:04 A Cooling Labor Market 08:17 The Expansion Continues 10:31 All Roads Lead to Inflation 17:49 Market to Fed: Slow Down 20:47 Big Earnings From Big Tech 25:56 A Housing Market Frozen in Time 32:25 More Affordable Rents
The most important charts and themes in markets and investing, including: 00:00 Intro 01:00 Topics 02:02 A Rally for the Ages 14:29 Easing Into a Melt-up 26:18 Intel Out, Nvidia In 29:12 Earnings Update 30:41 Buffett Getting More Bearish 34:00 Falling Gas Prices
The most important charts and themes in markets and investing, including: 00:00 Intro 01:08 Topics 02:04 Inflation Isn't Going Away 09:03 The Bond Market's Message to the Fed 14:28 Borrowing From Our Future 15:59 DOGE vs. $DOGE 19:29 Post-Election Market Euphoria Is Fading 24:44 Rising Real Wages
The most important charts and themes in markets and investing, including: 00:00 Intro 01:07 Topics 02:49 Fat Tails and Lumpy Returns 08:34 Nvidia Hardware Is Eating the World 21:27 The Narrative Fallacy 30:41 Why the Fed Will Be Forced to Pause 39:42 The "Dogecoin Millionaire" Gets a Second Chance 49:28 Knowing When to Sell 52:03 Super Bowl Predictions 55:42 Falling Jobless Claims
The most important charts and themes in markets and investing, including: 00:00 Intro 00:18 FREE Wealth Path Analysis 00:47 Topics 01:06 Goldilocks Jobs Report 04:14 One More Cut Before the Pause 08:48 The Most Wonderful Month of the Year 12:30 Bitcoin $100k 16:41 The Milei Miracle 19:52 More Affordable Rents
The most important charts and themes in markets and investing, including: 00:00 Intro 00:40 Topics 01:41 Inflation Is Warming 05:44 Free Wealth Path Analysis 07:48 Easing Into a Mania 19:27 Is Free Money the Cure For High Prices? 27:20 Nasdaq 20,000 29:19 Apple's Highest Valuation Ever 38:42 America's Exceptional Valuation 47:32 Rising Real Wages and Spike in Small Business Optimism
Put These Charts on Your Wall For Reference The Next Time You Think: 00:00 Intro 00:23 "All-Time Highs Are a Sell Signal" 01:39 "Investment Returns Are Linear" 02:41 "Overbought/Oversold!" 04:20 "Credit Card Rates Can't Go Any Higher" 04:58 "Spreads Can't Get Any Tighter" 06:05 QT and Stock Returns 07:23 Inverted Yield Curve and Stock Returns 08:41 Fed Cuts and Higher Mortgage Rates? 10:09 Most Unaffordable Housing Market Ever 11:35 "Vacancy Rates Can't Go Any Higher" 12:39 "You Can Trust All Government Inflation Data" 13:53 "EM Can't Possibly Underperform Any Longer" 14:52 "US Stocks Can't Possibly Outperform Any Longer" 16:23 "Markets Follow a Normal Distribution" 18:01 The Milei Miracle 18:55 "The Biggest Companies Can't Get Any Bigger" 20:16 "Cars Are Appreciating Assets" 21:28 "Rolex Watches Always Go Up in Value" 22:59 "The Past = The Future" 24:01 "Picking Stocks Is Easy" 25:02 "A Valuation Can't Go Any Higher" 25:53 Shorting on High Valuation 26:43 "Investors Are Rational" 28:34 "This Streak Can't Go On Any Longer" 29:54 "Profits Don't Matter Anymore" 31:19 "It Can't Go to Zero" 32:11 "Bonds Are Risk-Free" 33:29 Meme Stocks 33:54 "Correlations Are Static" 35:53 Headlines 37:11 National Debt 38:45 Big Winners = Big Drawdowns 39:56 This Has to Be the Top 41:02 The Travel Comeback 42:21 Capitalism vs Communism 43:50 Wall Street Can't Predict the Future 45:06 Why You Need to Invest, In One Chart 46:27 There Is No Impossible in Markets
Hi @Observant1 Thank you again. This particular program is worth at least one and perhaps two views for full absorption; depending on one's mood or schedule this holiday period. Remain curious, Catch
I'm glad you found the current episode worthwhile. Charlie utilized numerous charts (considerably more than usual) to educate investors about common misconceptions and myths. The corresponding data could be very beneficial for many investors.
This "Charts for your wall" episode should be pinned to the home screen for easy reference / reminder. @Observant, is it possible to duplicate your first post today also into the OP because today's post will be long burried?
I was surprised it is such a long list (of catchy phrases peddled over and over in the media, leaving the average investor bewildered why they underperform the market so badly time and again.)
I usually do not listen to Charlie's week in charts but read his blog but today I decided to give it a go.
The charts and themes that tell the story of 2024, including... 00:00 Intro 00:58 Low Expectations 02:37 Goodbye Bear, Hello Bull 04:07 Japan's Black Monday 05:59 Fed Easing Again 11:03 The Least Affordable Housing Market in History 13:50 Everywhere You Look: Extremes 16:13 Mag 7 Domination 18:39 $2 Trillion More in Debt 20:54 Expansion Continues 23:24 Triumph of the Optimists 32:30 What Comes Next?
Comments
These got my attention -
The 20% gain in the S&P 500 is the best start to a year since 1997 and 17th best in history.
Retail sales grew 2.1% over the last year, well below the historical average of 4.6%. And if we adjust for higher prices, they actually fell 0.5% versus the typical inflation-adjusted gain of 2%.
The Personal Savings Rate in the US has moved down to 2.9% . . .The average savings rate over the last 30 years is 5.8%.
The months’ supply of Existing Homes has moved up to 4.2
[If I remove from the chart the 2005 to 2012 years supply skewed by housing fraud, 4.2 months supply looks pretty normal to me on the chart. Existing home supply seems pretty good and if there is not enough demand, then watch for prices to come down.]
20 Rules for Markets and Investing...
00:00 Intro
00:20 Rule #1: Be humble.
01:11 Rule #2: Don't trust, verify.
02:57 Rule #3: Play the long game.
05:24 Rule #4: Understand that every time is different.
07:41 Rule #5: Pay no heed to predictions and price targets.
09:24 Rule #6: Embrace risk.
10:47 Rule #7: Buy the haystack.
13:16 Rule #8: Fight the Fed.
16:43 Rule #9: Expect the unexpected.
18:10 Rule #10: Don't chase the past.
20:16 Rule #11: Focus on saving before investing.
23:42 Rule #12: Simplify whenever possible.
26:27 Rule #13: Learn to be good at suffering.
27:54 Rule #14: Never interrupt compounding unnecessarily.
29:29 Rule #15: Tune out the noise.
32:01 Rule #16: Respect reversion to the mean.
34:15 Rule #17: Know what you own and why you own it.
39:36 Rule #18: Diversify, diversify, diversify.
41:44 Rule #19: Control your emotions.
44:05 Rule #20: Value time over money.
Video
Blog - 10/01 blog not currently available
The most important charts and themes in markets and investing, including:
00:00 Intro
00:19 Free Wealth Path Analysis
01:04 Topics
01:57 The Resilient Jobs Market
04:41 Labor Market: Still Cooling
08:34 Big Shift in Fed Easing Expectations
10:52 Bond Market Got Ahead of Itself
14:32 China Goes Parabolic
22:45 Declining Dividend Yields
25:25 More Affordable Rents
Video
Blog - 10/08 blog not currently available
S&P 500 - second Lowest ever dividend yield (1.27%) and highest P/E (25) and highest P/S (3.0)
Yet for a different context, the S&P 500 forward P/E has increased from 15.3 during the October 12, 2022 week to the current 21.6. So give or take the P/E has increased about 40% while the price increased 60% during this period.
May be someone here can give their analysis of whether P is running sustainably too far ahead of the increase in E.
I must state the old refrain - valuation is a bad timing tool.
The most important charts and themes in markets and investing, including:
00:00 Intro
00:16 Free Wealth Path Analysis
00:54 Topics
01:41 Rising Prices at a Slower Pace
06:05 Market Expectations = Fed Expectations
13:24 The Rate Cut Tradeoff
16:39 Why Mortgage Rates Rose After the Fed Cut
21:50 What Are They Trying to Hide?
24:55 The Goldilocks Moment
29:56 Rising Real Wages
Video
Blog - 10/11 blog not currently available
Item 4 discusses the cumulative increase in major CPI categories over the past 4 years and shows Medical care at 8% and Auto insurance at 60%. Why are we measuring Medical care, rather than Medical insurance? My medical insurance probably went up 60%. I already know my next year medical premium increase is 15%. CPI probably has measurement problem.
Item 8. US HY Credit spreads at 2.89% is the lowest since 2007. SPY dividend yield at 1.27%(tied with Q4 2021) is the lowest since 1999. Nothing to see here?
The State of the Markets, including...
00:00 Intro
00:14 Topics
00:26 Stocks
08:35 Free Wealth Path Analysis
09:17 Bonds/Fed
16:54 Real Estate/Housing
21:15 Commodities
23:57 Currencies
26:17 Crypto
27:52 Intermarket
33:56 Economy
Video
Blog - 10/19 blog not currently available
"High Yield Spreads are now at their tightest levels since June 2007 (2.89%) and Investment Grade Spreads at their tightest levels since March 2005 (0.83%). Bond investors are reaching for yield and behaving as if there will never be a default cycle again."
"Rents have been held down by a multi-family construction boom that significantly increased supply and is leading to the highest vacancy rates (6.7%) since 2020."
"And wage growth of close to 4% over the past year was 1.5% higher than the increase in CPI inflation. That was the 17th straight month in which wages outpaced inflation over the prior year, a great trend for the American worker that hopefully continues."
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/21/opinion/inflation-mistakes.html
The most important charts and themes in markets and investing, including:
00:00 Intro
00:35 Topics
02:00 How Everything Could Change over the Next 10 Years
17:52 The AI-Driven Multiple Expansion
28:29 Reaching for Yield Like It's 2007
35:00 Rise of the Bond Vigilantes
44:06 Stock Picking Is Hard, Netflix Edition
46:09 Are Workers Today Better off Than 50 Years Ago?
Video
Blog
Pl share if you listened to the prognosis for next 10 yrs. It is 15 min long.
The most important charts and themes in markets and investing, including:
00:00 Intro
00:55 Topics
02:04 A Cooling Labor Market
08:17 The Expansion Continues
10:31 All Roads Lead to Inflation
17:49 Market to Fed: Slow Down
20:47 Big Earnings From Big Tech
25:56 A Housing Market Frozen in Time
32:25 More Affordable Rents
Video
Blog
https://bilello.blog/2024/the-week-in-charts-11-4-24
The most important charts and themes in markets and investing, including:
00:00 Intro
01:00 Topics
02:02 A Rally for the Ages
14:29 Easing Into a Melt-up
26:18 Intel Out, Nvidia In
29:12 Earnings Update
30:41 Buffett Getting More Bearish
34:00 Falling Gas Prices
Video
Blog
The most important charts and themes in markets and investing, including:
00:00 Intro
01:08 Topics
02:04 Inflation Isn't Going Away
09:03 The Bond Market's Message to the Fed
14:28 Borrowing From Our Future
15:59 DOGE vs. $DOGE
19:29 Post-Election Market Euphoria Is Fading
24:44 Rising Real Wages
Video
Blog
The most important charts and themes in markets and investing, including:
00:00 Intro
01:07 Topics
02:49 Fat Tails and Lumpy Returns
08:34 Nvidia Hardware Is Eating the World
21:27 The Narrative Fallacy
30:41 Why the Fed Will Be Forced to Pause
39:42 The "Dogecoin Millionaire" Gets a Second Chance
49:28 Knowing When to Sell
52:03 Super Bowl Predictions
55:42 Falling Jobless Claims
Video
Blog
The most important charts and themes in markets and investing, including:
00:00 Intro
00:18 FREE Wealth Path Analysis
00:47 Topics
01:06 Goldilocks Jobs Report
04:14 One More Cut Before the Pause
08:48 The Most Wonderful Month of the Year
12:30 Bitcoin $100k
16:41 The Milei Miracle
19:52 More Affordable Rents
Video
Blog
The most important charts and themes in markets and investing, including:
00:00 Intro
00:40 Topics
01:41 Inflation Is Warming
05:44 Free Wealth Path Analysis
07:48 Easing Into a Mania
19:27 Is Free Money the Cure For High Prices?
27:20 Nasdaq 20,000
29:19 Apple's Highest Valuation Ever
38:42 America's Exceptional Valuation
47:32 Rising Real Wages and Spike in Small Business Optimism
Video
Blog
Put These Charts on Your Wall For Reference The Next Time You Think:
00:00 Intro
00:23 "All-Time Highs Are a Sell Signal"
01:39 "Investment Returns Are Linear"
02:41 "Overbought/Oversold!"
04:20 "Credit Card Rates Can't Go Any Higher"
04:58 "Spreads Can't Get Any Tighter"
06:05 QT and Stock Returns
07:23 Inverted Yield Curve and Stock Returns
08:41 Fed Cuts and Higher Mortgage Rates?
10:09 Most Unaffordable Housing Market Ever
11:35 "Vacancy Rates Can't Go Any Higher"
12:39 "You Can Trust All Government Inflation Data"
13:53 "EM Can't Possibly Underperform Any Longer"
14:52 "US Stocks Can't Possibly Outperform Any Longer"
16:23 "Markets Follow a Normal Distribution"
18:01 The Milei Miracle
18:55 "The Biggest Companies Can't Get Any Bigger"
20:16 "Cars Are Appreciating Assets"
21:28 "Rolex Watches Always Go Up in Value"
22:59 "The Past = The Future"
24:01 "Picking Stocks Is Easy"
25:02 "A Valuation Can't Go Any Higher"
25:53 Shorting on High Valuation
26:43 "Investors Are Rational"
28:34 "This Streak Can't Go On Any Longer"
29:54 "Profits Don't Matter Anymore"
31:19 "It Can't Go to Zero"
32:11 "Bonds Are Risk-Free"
33:29 Meme Stocks
33:54 "Correlations Are Static"
35:53 Headlines
37:11 National Debt
38:45 Big Winners = Big Drawdowns
39:56 This Has to Be the Top
41:02 The Travel Comeback
42:21 Capitalism vs Communism
43:50 Wall Street Can't Predict the Future
45:06 Why You Need to Invest, In One Chart
46:27 There Is No Impossible in Markets
Video
Blog
Thank you again. This particular program is worth at least one and perhaps two views for full absorption; depending on one's mood or schedule this holiday period.
Remain curious,
Catch
I'm glad you found the current episode worthwhile.
Charlie utilized numerous charts (considerably more than usual)
to educate investors about common misconceptions and myths.
The corresponding data could be very beneficial for many investors.
I was surprised it is such a long list (of catchy phrases peddled over and over in the media, leaving the average investor bewildered why they underperform the market so badly time and again.)
I usually do not listen to Charlie's week in charts but read his blog but today I decided to give it a go.
The charts and themes that tell the story of 2024, including...
00:00 Intro
00:58 Low Expectations
02:37 Goodbye Bear, Hello Bull
04:07 Japan's Black Monday
05:59 Fed Easing Again
11:03 The Least Affordable Housing Market in History
13:50 Everywhere You Look: Extremes
16:13 Mag 7 Domination
18:39 $2 Trillion More in Debt
20:54 Expansion Continues
23:24 Triumph of the Optimists
32:30 What Comes Next?
Video
Blog