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The Week in Charts | Charlie Bilello

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  • edited September 25
    Blog - https://bilello.blog/2024/the-week-in-charts-9-25-24

    These got my attention -

    The 20% gain in the S&P 500 is the best start to a year since 1997 and 17th best in history.

    Retail sales grew 2.1% over the last year, well below the historical average of 4.6%. And if we adjust for higher prices, they actually fell 0.5% versus the typical inflation-adjusted gain of 2%.

    The Personal Savings Rate in the US has moved down to 2.9% . . .The average savings rate over the last 30 years is 5.8%.

    The months’ supply of Existing Homes has moved up to 4.2

    [If I remove from the chart the 2005 to 2012 years supply skewed by housing fraud, 4.2 months supply looks pretty normal to me on the chart. Existing home supply seems pretty good and if there is not enough demand, then watch for prices to come down.]
  • The Week in Charts (10/01/24)

    20 Rules for Markets and Investing...
    00:00 Intro
    00:20 Rule #1: Be humble.
    01:11 Rule #2: Don't trust, verify.
    02:57 Rule #3: Play the long game.
    05:24 Rule #4: Understand that every time is different.
    07:41 Rule #5: Pay no heed to predictions and price targets.
    09:24 Rule #6: Embrace risk.
    10:47 Rule #7: Buy the haystack.
    13:16 Rule #8: Fight the Fed.
    16:43 Rule #9: Expect the unexpected.
    18:10 Rule #10: Don't chase the past.
    20:16 Rule #11: Focus on saving before investing.
    23:42 Rule #12: Simplify whenever possible.
    26:27 Rule #13: Learn to be good at suffering.
    27:54 Rule #14: Never interrupt compounding unnecessarily.
    29:29 Rule #15: Tune out the noise.
    32:01 Rule #16: Respect reversion to the mean.
    34:15 Rule #17: Know what you own and why you own it.
    39:36 Rule #18: Diversify, diversify, diversify.
    41:44 Rule #19: Control your emotions.
    44:05 Rule #20: Value time over money.

    Video
    Blog - 10/01 blog not currently available
  • The Week in Charts (10/08/24)

    The most important charts and themes in markets and investing, including:
    00:00 Intro
    00:19 Free Wealth Path Analysis
    01:04 Topics
    01:57 The Resilient Jobs Market
    04:41 Labor Market: Still Cooling
    08:34 Big Shift in Fed Easing Expectations
    10:52 Bond Market Got Ahead of Itself
    14:32 China Goes Parabolic
    22:45 Declining Dividend Yields
    25:25 More Affordable Rents

    Video
    Blog - 10/08 blog not currently available
  • edited October 9
    The last but one segment in the Blog

    S&P 500 - second Lowest ever dividend yield (1.27%) and highest P/E (25) and highest P/S (3.0)
  • edited October 9
    BaluBalu said:

    S&P 500 - second Lowest ever dividend yield (1.27%) and highest P/E (25) and highest P/S (3.0)

    For a different context, current S&P 500 forward P/E is 21.6 while the highest forward P/E ever was in 1999 at 25.5. If one thinks we are far in bubbly territory, I guess we are from frothy territory?

    Yet for a different context, the S&P 500 forward P/E has increased from 15.3 during the October 12, 2022 week to the current 21.6. So give or take the P/E has increased about 40% while the price increased 60% during this period.

    May be someone here can give their analysis of whether P is running sustainably too far ahead of the increase in E.

    I must state the old refrain - valuation is a bad timing tool.

  • The Week in Charts (10/11/24)

    The most important charts and themes in markets and investing, including:
    00:00 Intro
    00:16 Free Wealth Path Analysis
    00:54 Topics
    01:41 Rising Prices at a Slower Pace
    06:05 Market Expectations = Fed Expectations
    13:24 The Rate Cut Tradeoff
    16:39 Why Mortgage Rates Rose After the Fed Cut
    21:50 What Are They Trying to Hide?
    24:55 The Goldilocks Moment
    29:56 Rising Real Wages

    Video
    Blog - 10/11 blog not currently available
  • Very nice. Thanks again @Observant1
  • edited October 14
    Blog - https://bilello.blog/2024/the-week-in-charts-10-14-24

    Item 4 discusses the cumulative increase in major CPI categories over the past 4 years and shows Medical care at 8% and Auto insurance at 60%. Why are we measuring Medical care, rather than Medical insurance? My medical insurance probably went up 60%. I already know my next year medical premium increase is 15%. CPI probably has measurement problem.

    Item 8. US HY Credit spreads at 2.89% is the lowest since 2007. SPY dividend yield at 1.27%(tied with Q4 2021) is the lowest since 1999. Nothing to see here?

  • The Week in Charts (10/19/24)

    The State of the Markets, including...
    00:00 Intro
    00:14 Topics
    00:26 Stocks
    08:35 Free Wealth Path Analysis
    09:17 Bonds/Fed
    16:54 Real Estate/Housing
    21:15 Commodities
    23:57 Currencies
    26:17 Crypto
    27:52 Intermarket
    33:56 Economy

    Video
    Blog - 10/19 blog not currently available
  • edited October 23
    https://bilello.blog/2024/the-state-of-the-markets-october-2024

    "High Yield Spreads are now at their tightest levels since June 2007 (2.89%) and Investment Grade Spreads at their tightest levels since March 2005 (0.83%). Bond investors are reaching for yield and behaving as if there will never be a default cycle again."

    "Rents have been held down by a multi-family construction boom that significantly increased supply and is leading to the highest vacancy rates (6.7%) since 2020."

    "And wage growth of close to 4% over the past year was 1.5% higher than the increase in CPI inflation. That was the 17th straight month in which wages outpaced inflation over the prior year, a great trend for the American worker that hopefully continues."
  • The Week in Charts (10/25/24)

    The most important charts and themes in markets and investing, including:
    00:00 Intro
    00:35 Topics
    02:00 How Everything Could Change over the Next 10 Years
    17:52 The AI-Driven Multiple Expansion
    28:29 Reaching for Yield Like It's 2007
    35:00 Rise of the Bond Vigilantes
    44:06 Stock Picking Is Hard, Netflix Edition
    46:09 Are Workers Today Better off Than 50 Years Ago?

    Video
    Blog
  • edited October 26
    Reaching for yield segment says stay away from high yield, rather take risk with equities.

    Pl share if you listened to the prognosis for next 10 yrs. It is 15 min long.
  • I listened to a very tiny little bit of it. They were talking about how the 2014 predictions said small cap were going to do better than large cap over the next 10 years LOL. I then closed it.
  • gman57 said:

    I listened to a very tiny little bit of it. They were talking about how the 2014 predictions said small cap were going to do better than large cap over the next 10 years LOL. I then closed it.

    backtesting is so often comical
  • "High Yield Spreads are now at their tightest levels since June 2007 (2.89%) and Investment Grade Spreads at their tightest levels since March 2005 (0.83%). Bond investors are reaching for yield and behaving as if there will never be a default cycle again."
    I moved a portion of floating rate bonds to investment grade bonds several months ago in light of the spread is getting smaller. So far the floating rate bonds keep on moving up while the IG bonds stay flat or went down. Go figure! The economy seems to moving along well, so I pause…
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