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The Week in Charts | Charlie Bilello

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  • The Week in Charts (08/22/23)

    A tour of the markets covering the most important charts & themes, including...
    00:00 Intro
    00:15 Tis But a Flesh Wound (Stocks)
    07:41 No Pain, No Gain (Bonds)
    12:37 Q4 Recession? (Economy)
    18:57 The Real Policy Mistake (Housing/Fed)
    31:50 Better Than Expected (Earnings Update)
    35:13 Streamflation (Streaming Services)
    39:32 A Secular Trend (E-Commerce)

    Video
    Blog

  • The Week in Charts (08/30/23)

    A tour of the markets covering the most important charts & themes, including...
    00:00 Intro
    00:12 The Purchasing Power Decline (Housing)
    03:51 A Dearth of Supply (Housing)
    8:55 Disney's Drawdown
    11:42 Prepared to Hike Again (Fed)
    14:46 A New Computing Era ($NVDA)
    18:58 Lower Used Car Prices (Tesla)
    22:09 Long Cycles (US Domination)
    24:47 The Other Side of Mania (AMC/Meme Stocks)
    28:20 The Rental Gap (Suburban versus Urban Rent Growth)
    30:58 8 Billion Reasons Thomas Malthus Was Wrong

    Video
    Blog
  • The Week in Charts (09/06/23)

    A tour of the markets covering the most important charts & themes.
    Video
    Blog
  • edited September 2023
    The Week in Charts (09/17/23)

    A tour of the markets covering the most important charts & themes, including...
    00:00 Intro
    00:29 A Second Wave of Inflation? (CPI Report)
    08:44 The Long Pause? (Fed Policy Expectations)
    15:04 All Is Calm (Market Volatility, Credit Spreads)
    18:31 The Biggest IPO of the Year (Arm Holdings)
    22:39 Big Demands (UAW Strike)
    30:15 Retail Sales Slump
    33:32 Tightening Lending Standards
    34:49 Deficit Spending
    38:33 Rising Real Wages

    Video
    Blog
  • Just read in Reuters that oil is heading up to $100/barrel. The combined cut back from major oil producers including OPEC and Russia are affecting the supply side. Higher energy cost will boost inflation again.
  • edited September 2023
    Sven said:

    Just read in Reuters that oil is heading up to $100/barrel. The combined cut back from major oil producers including OPEC and Russia are affecting the supply side. Higher energy cost will boost inflation again.

    Both NYMEX & Brent crude are up about a percent today. The first is priced near $92 and the latter around $95. Of course, oil prices have always been very volatile. Hard to time. What irks me is Americans’ fondness for driving very large high riding gas powered vehicles for everyday use - often with a sole occupant. These vehicles go about 18-20 miles (give or take) on a gallon of fuel under everyday driving conditions. These drivers are paying double to get from “Point A” to “Point B” they would with a midsized or large sedan capable of transporting 4 or 5 occupants in comfort. OK - it’s a free country. Do as you will. But why than scream about the high price of fuel?

    Bloomberg typically puts up prices for both NYMEX and Brent crude oil. Below is a excerpt from one source pointing out some of the differences.

    ”Brent is a waterborne crude. It is a basket comprised of five different North Sea crudes (Brent, Forties, Oseberg, Ekofisk, and Troll, commonly referred to as BFOET). As a waterborne crude, it can be put on a vessel and shipped anywhere. Because of this, Brent reflects global oil market fundamentals and the global economy. This is reinforced by the fact that approximately 80% of the world’s traded crude is priced relative to Brent, including Dubai, Urals, and West African crudes.
    Brent can be shipped and stored globally, either on land or in floating storage. As it has much more flexibility than WTI in terms of logistics …

    “NYMEX WTI
    In contrast to Brent, WTI Cushing is a landlocked regional crude, which reflects market fundamentals in the midcontinent region of the US. It has storage and logistics constraints at a very specific location: Cushing, Oklahoma. There is limited pipeline capacity to get crude in and out of Cushing, and limited crude storage capacity there.”


    https://www.ice.com/insights/market-pulse/what-are-the-differences-between-ice-brent-and-nymex-wti-futures

    As an investment, I maintain a 10% weighting in a CEF that plays around in the energy, industrial metals & precious metals sectors. (To me, it’s all about broad diversification.) A good mutual fund would be more cost effective, and potentially more profitable, but wouldn’t allow for the frequent rebalancing I like to do (intended to reduce risk). For broader allocation purposes this exposure is included under my “equity holdings”, so that my contribution to BBF’s thread did not distinguish this energy / metals exposure from the broader equity eposure
  • We are fortunate to own fuel efficient cars, not Tesla for sure. Cannot imagine having a Hummer.

    We exited the entire commodity futures position early this year. Guess it was premature now that oil is up again. Where is the recession that everyone is talking about?
  • The Week in Charts (09/24/23)

    The most important charts and themes in markets, including...
    00:00 Intro
    00:37 Webinar Next Week (9/26 @ 1pm EST)
    01:06 Are Higher Rates Here to Stay (FOMC Meeting)
    08:52 Good Times, Bad Times (Bonds)
    17:02 Rising Rates: Good or Bad for Corporations?
    22:24 Another Debt Milestone (National Debt)
    26:29 A Minor Pullback (Equity Markets)
    28:49 Would Stock Picking Be Easy if You Knew the Future?
    31:34 Instacart IPO
    36:40 "Soft Landing"
    41:38 Slowdown in Homebuilding
    44:02 Commercial Real Estate Reset
    46:41 Real Estate Boom & Bust in China
    48:24 India's Incredible Progress

    Video
    Blog
  • The Week in Charts (10/01/23)

    The most important charts and themes in markets, including...
    00:00 Intro
    00:16 Frozen Housing Market
    06:41 7 Years Gone (Bonds)
    09:14 Fed on Hold (Fed Policy)
    12:27 Unaffordable Healthcare
    16:18 King Dollar (Currencies)
    19:24 Know What You Own (TIPS)
    22:12 Indices Masking Weakness (Equity Markets)
    23:43 The Freedom Premium
    28:15 The 6% CD is Here

    Video
    Blog
  • The Week in Charts (10/08/23)

    The most important charts and themes in markets, including...
    00:00 Intro
    00:12 That Escalated Quickly (Bond Yields)
    04:36 More Mortgage Pain (Housing)
    06:36 Higher Rates, Less Building (Apartments)
    08:32 The Coming Default Cycle (Office Property Market)
    11:28 Longest Bond Bear Market Ever
    15:36 More Jobs (Payroll Report)
    19:57 Lower Prices Bring Out the Bears (Stocks)
    25:13 When Valuations Matter (Story of 3M)
    28:36 Going Nowhere Fast (General Motors)
    30:48 Expensive EVs (Rivian)
    33:57 Borrowing $2 Trillion in 4 Months (National Debt)
    37:58 More Affordable Air Conditioning

    Video
    Blog
  • The Week in Charts (10/15/23)

    The most important charts and themes in markets, including...
    00:00 Intro
    00:18 How Long Will Inflation Remain Elevated? (Latest)
    05:36 Bond Market Doing the Fed's Job (Fed Policy)
    11:43 Boomer Spending Boom
    13:53 Banks Still Under Pressure
    17:19 The Bill Is Coming Due (National Debt)
    21:58 Cry for Argentina
    26:12 The Path to Prosperity

    Video
    Blog
  • edited October 2023
    The Week in Charts (10/22/23)

    The most important charts and themes in markets, including...
    00:00 Intro
    00:12 The 8% Mortgage Rate is Here
    03:39 Priced Out of the American Dream (Housing Market)
    06:43 Lost Decade in Long Bonds (Bond Market)
    11:09 The Bear Steepening
    14:29 Yield Curve: Still Inverted
    16:59 The Difficult Business of Predicting Recessions (Economy)
    19:21 Netflix Turnaround
    21:10 Margin Compression (Tesla)
    24:18 What's Priced In? (Moderna)
    26:59 Is This What a New Bull Market Looks Like? (Equities)
    30:20 What Are They Trying to Hide?

    Video
    Blog
  • The Week in Charts (10/22/23)

    The most important charts and themes in markets, including...
    00:00 Intro
    00:15 The Year's Biggest Correction (Equities)
    06:09 Earnings Comeback (Big Tech, S&P 500)
    10:03 Buying vs. Renting (Housing Market)
    17:20 US Consumer Boosting Growth (GDP)
    22:54 A Depreciating Asset Once More (Tesla)
    28:18 UAW to Ford: "Pony Up" (Tentative Agreement)
    31:49 Unwinding the Fed's Excesses (Fed, Money Supply)
    36:19 Falling Core Inflation (PCE, FOMC Meeting)

    Video
    Blog
  • edited November 2023
    The Week in Charts (11/05/23)

    The most important charts and themes in markets, including...
    00:00 Intro
    00:24 Bouncing Back With a Vengeance (Equities)
    03:17 Investing in a Drawdown
    06:08 Improving Bottom Line (Earnings)
    09:54 Loosening Labor Market (Jobs Report)
    15:49 Pause, Pause, Pause, Cut (Fed, FOMC)
    21:54 Nothing From the 40 in 60/40
    26:23 Mortgage Industry Decline (Housing Market)
    29:35 More Affordable Rents (Rental Market)

    Video
    Blog
  • edited November 2023
    The Week in Charts (11/12/23)

    The most important charts and themes in markets, including...
    00:00 Intro
    00:16 The Tremendous Two (Apple & Microsoft)
    03:35 The Fantastic Four (Apple, Microsoft, Google & Amazon)
    06:41 The Enormous Eight (Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Netflix, Tesla, Meta, & Nvidia)
    12:16 2023: The Inverse of 2022
    14:56 Rising Debt/Delinquencies (Credit Cards, Auto Loans)
    19:07 Next Inflation Report: Likely to Decline
    21:51 Higher Real Central Bank Rates (Today vs. 2 years ago)
    25:37 Spending on Experiences (Concerts, Travel)
    27:38 Is Housing Supply Starting to Normalize?
    30:41 From $47 billion to $0 (WeWork)
    32:40 Outpacing Inflation With I Bonds (updated rates)

    Video
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  • The Week in Charts (11/20/23)

    The most important charts and themes in markets, including...
    00:00 Intro
    00:15 The Road to Lower Inflation (CPI Report)
    05:43 More Evidence of Cooling Inflation (PPI, Import Prices)
    07:00 Will CPI Decline Again in November?
    09:50 Market to Fed: No More Hikes!
    13:09 Earnings at New Highs & Stocks Not Far Behind
    14:58 The Tech Boom & Bust Cycle
    18:14 Manufacturing/Industrial Slowdown
    20:33 The Retail Sales Slowdown
    25:01 Secular Shift to E-Commerce
    26:37 When Debt Matters
    30:15 Higher Rates, Lower Homebuilder Confidence
    32:30 Thankful for Lower Food Prices

    Video
    Blog

  • The Week in Charts (11/28/23)

    The most important charts and themes in markets, including...
    00:00 Intro
    00:18 The Volatility Crash ($VIX)
    05:30 An Unexpected Combination of Events (Higher Rates/Stocks/Multiples)
    07:55 Exponential Growth ($NVDA)
    11:29 Holiday Spending Spree? (Consumer)
    16:28 Room to Spare (Housing)
    19:00 Trying Something New (Argentina Election - Milei)
    21:57 Housing Market Standstill Continues (Existing Home Sales)
    24:39 "A Very Short Recession" (Conference Board)
    27:34 The New King of Shipping (Amazon)
    28:47 Lower-Priced New Homes

    Video
    Blog

  • The Week in Charts (12/03/23)

    The most important charts and themes in markets, including...
    00:00 Intro
    00:11 A November to Remember (Markets)
    05:05 180 Shift in Sentiment (Sentiment)
    08:30 Dow at New Highs (Dow 30)
    10:04 The Recession That Never Came (Economy)
    11:51 The Deep Freeze in Housing (Housing Market)
    16:23 More Affordable Rents (Rental Market)
    20:00 A March Rate Cut? (Fed)
    24:48 They Got the Message (Money Supply)
    26:32 A Record Day in Travel (Good News)

    Video
    Blog
  • edited December 2023
    The Week in Charts (12/11/23)

    The most important charts and themes in markets, including...
    00:00 Intro
    00:12 199k More Jobs (Jobs Report)
    03:31 A Looser Labor Market (Job Openings)
    05:52 Housing Market in 2024 (Redfin Forecast)
    08:11 Major Equity Market Trends (Large vs. Small, US vs. International, etc.)
    14:51 Moving in Tandem (Stocks & Bonds)
    18:42 A Product of Our Experiences (Asset Allocation by Generation)
    24:05 Fed on Hold (Fed Policy)
    27:23 More Affordable Cars (Prices Moving Lower)

    Video
    Blog
  • The Week in Charts (12/17/23)

    The most important charts and themes in markets, including...
    00:00 Intro
    00:23 Is the Inflation Fight Over? (CPI Report)
    04:26 More Evidence of Cooling Inflation (PPI, Import Prices, Inflation Expectations)
    06:20 The Fed Pivot (FOMC Meeting)
    13:46 Dow 37k (New ATH)
    17:44 2 Years of Returns in 2 Months (Bond Market)
    22:52 Corporate Bonds: Lower Yields, Tighter Spreads (High Yield/IG Bonds)
    25:34 Higher Rates, Higher Stocks? (Fed & Stocks)
    29:13 Is Mean Reversion Dead? (Large v. Small, US v. International, Growth vs. Value)
    33:08 From Fearful to Greedy (Sentiment)
    36:20 Wages Outpacing Inflation (Good News)

    Video
    Blog - not posted yet
  • The Week in Charts (12/27/23)

    Put these charts on your wall. Topics:
    0:00 Intro
    00:23 Overbought! Oversold!
    01:08 Credit Card Rates & Mortgage Rates
    01:55 Fed Policy & Stock Market Returns
    03:30 Mortgage Rates & Home Prices
    04:20 The Stock Market Is Not the Economy
    05:20 Bear Market Bottoms
    06:39 Volatility is Mean-Reverting at Extremes
    07:36 Markets Don't Follow a Normal Distribution
    09:35 Bank Failures and Financial Crises
    10:33 Increasing Concentration
    11:59 What Happened Last Year = What Will Happen Next Year?
    12:47 Cars Are Not Appreciating Assets
    13:43 Past Performance = Future Results?
    14:54 Just Buy What You Know?
    15:54 Shorting Stocks Based on Valuation
    17:07 Irrational Investors
    18:38 Streaks
    19:41 Profits Matter ... Eventually
    20:41 The Workers Came Back
    21:42 Bonds Have Risk
    23:23 Buying a Stock Based on a Meme
    24:34 Supply/Demand Imbalances
    25:20 Makes Changes to Your Portfolio Based on Headlines
    26:26 Rising National Debt
    28:06 Big Returns, Big Drawdowns
    28:59 Central Planning vs. Capitalism
    29:53 Wall Street Predictions
    31:10 Why You Need to Invest
    32:21 There Is No Impossible in Markets

    Video
    Blog

  • edited January 21
    The Year in Charts (01/07/24)

    These were the charts and themes that told the story of 2023...
    00:00 Intro
    00:15 The Wall of Worry
    02:55 The Pain Trade
    04:35 A Run on the Bank
    09:36 A Different Kind of Fed
    14:06 AI Exuberance
    18:03 The Magnificent Seven
    20:19 The Sky's the Limit
    23:38 The Recession that Never Came
    26:38 The Earnings Comeback
    28:18 A Frozen Housing Market
    32:20 Back on the Path to Prosperity
    36:32 A Rally for the Ages
    42:18 The Polar Opposite of 2022
    45:06 Triumph of the Optimists
    49:41 What Comes Next?

    Video
    Blog
  • edited January 30
    The Week in Charts (01/21/24)

    The most important charts and themes in markets, including...
    00:00 Intro
    00:24 Is the War Against Inflation Over?
    03:30 Signs of Cooling Inflation All Around
    05:16 Early Read on January CPI
    09:59 Is the Fed About to Make a Policy Mistake?
    17:26 Housing Market Deep Freeze Continues
    23:43 Retail Sales Resurgence
    26:08 Capitalism vs. Communism
    38:02 The Bitcoin ETF and How Market History Rhymes
    41:16 Increasing Prosperity: Wages Outpacing Inflation

    Video
    Blog
  • The Week in Charts (01/28/24)

    The most important charts and themes in markets, including...
    00:00 Intro
    00:17 What Tends to Follow All-Time Highs?
    05:15 Will Small Caps Have Their Day in the Sun?
    10:28 New Member of the Trillion Dollar Club
    17:17 Tesla and Mr. Market
    24:40 Netflix Comeback
    27:32 King Morgan
    29:08 Homebuilder Adaptation
    32:14 Expansion Continues
    37:23 China's Plunge Protection?
    41:21 Money Supply Reversal
    43:11 Cooling Inflation

    Video
    Blog
  • The Week in Charts (02/05/24)

    The most important charts and themes in markets, including...
    00:00 Intro
    00:20 A Blowout Jobs Report
    02:45 Say Goodbye to the March Rate Cut (FOMC Meeting)
    06:54 A Year of Central Bank Easing
    08:38 Money Making Machines (Earnings)
    14:37 The Iron Rule of Financial Markets (Ark vs. Berkshire)
    17:10 No Recession in Luxury Goods (Ferrari)
    21:59 Rising Residential vs. Crumbling Commercial
    27:34 The India/China Divergence
    31:22 Weight Loss Drug Boom (Eli Lilly)
    33:19 More Affordable Rents

    Video
    Blog


  • edited February 6
    @Observant1
    Thank you for routinely posting these. I find them to always be very informative and sometimes I can carve out actionable items for our port. Here's hoping you continue with this service to the forum and that others take advantage of it.
  • edited February 6
    Thanks, @stillers!
    I'm glad that you find The Week in Charts to be informative.
    I usually learn something from each episode.
  • edited February 9

    Thanks, @stillers!
    I'm glad that you find The Week in Charts to be informative.
    I usually learn something from each episode.

    Yeah, I wish I would have noticed your thread sooner, only been reading it for the past several months. Not to be overly patronizing of you or Charts, but IMO it should be required reading for any serious investor here. Each time I've learned something, but more importantly, I've learned actionable stuff some of those times! And that is the essence of a great post!
  • edited February 21
    The Week in Charts (02/11/24)

    00:00 Intro
    01:31 Topics
    02:42 The Longest Inversion in History
    07:01 More All-Time Highs (S&P 5,000)
    15:44 Nvidia Now Bigger Than Entire Energy Sector
    29:56 No Rush to Cut (Fed Policy)
    44:14 Profitability Matters Again
    47:31 McDonald's Customers Not Lovin' Price Increases
    55:05 The Secular Bear Market in Office Buildings
    1:05:54 Demographics and Destiny (China)
    1:15:57 The Kids Are Alright

    Video
    Blog

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