Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Liz Cheney asserted after Kamala's loss that citizens and procedures and our institutions will have to provide guardrails. Will the already anemic and compromised Institutions of State keep him corralled? I rather doubt it.
It's going to be interesting because if Trump were to actually deport many/most of the undocumented agricultural/food prep/construction workers, and impose tariffs anything like he has promised, inflation will take off like a rocket.
If, as he has suggested, he screws with the Fed that will be very destabilizing also.
It's going to be great when he eliminates taxes on SS. For a while. Until it goes broke because of no adjustment to it's funding sources. Oh, well... we've got ours... why should we care about the people behind us?
A lot will depend upon the people who are appointed to actually try to carry out his policies, and who hopefully have (unlike Trump) actual knowledge of how the financial systems actually work.
Putin will be really happy when we hand over the Ukraine. Oh, well... that's over there in Europe somewhere... why should we care?
Netanyahu will be also be very happy as we tell him to just get rid of all the Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank. Oh, well... that's over there in the Mideast somewhere... why should we care?
Some elements of big business will be very happy as our commitment to help stabilize the world's temperature becomes "inoperative", and we go full ahead with energy pollution. Oh, well... we've got ours... why should we care about our children and the people behind us?
How health care could change under the new Trump administration
The reverberations will be felt far beyond Washington, D.C., and could include an erosion of the Affordable Care Act’s consumer protections, the imposition of work requirements in Medicaid and funding cuts to the safety net insurance, and challenges to federal agencies that safeguard public health.
Abortion restrictions may tighten nationwide with a possible effort to restrict the mailing of abortion medications.
And with the elevation of vaccine skeptic Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to Trump’s inner circle of advisers, public health interventions with rigorous scientific backing — whether fluoridating public water supplies or inoculating children — could come under fire.
Trump’s victory will give a far broader platform to skeptics and critics of federal health programs and actions. Public health authorities worry that in a worst case, the U.S. could see increases in preventable illnesses; a weakening of public confidence in established science; and debunked notions — such as a link between vaccines and autism — adopted as policy.
Unlike in the first Term, now he has identified Trump loyalists he can appoint to run various govt agencies and he will and thus he can drive his agenda with less friction (replace with your word of choice). It will be a much more radically different Govt than we have ever seen.
More people and industries will move to Red States. If you are into real estate investing, that would be my location bet.
I am expecting Bay Area real estate where I live to underperform some of the Red States.
I am more interested in predicting the next bubble in industry. E.g., if you were able to figure out the real estate bubble during Bush Jr era, you could have ridden that puppy all the way up and then equally profited by shorting it.
I think there can be an unsustainable bubble in the next four years that can lead to a strong recession. Accurately predicting it can be profitable.
I agree with @BaluBalu regarding the extremists who may be appointed to key positions. Michael Lewis pointed out that in 2017 the Trump administration failed to take advantage of its chance to seize many federal functions and departments simply out of poor preparation and a chaotic transition plan. I suspect that Trump supporters have been working hard during Biden’s years to rectify the previous errors. The people taking over now will immediately try to implement such changes as contemplated by the 2025 Project (Trump’s disavowal to the contrary). Almost everything I can see in that plan is anti-democratic, nihilistic, and (were it to succeed) capable of changing the relationship between the government and the governed. I believe “ for, by, and of the People” will no longer be the ideal of our republic. We risk becoming a democracy in name only. No one man can individually alter our institutions, but many people loyal beyond a doubt to the one man could effect terrible damage.
Having worked in the DC machine, I can say that DC bureaucracy was nauseating even 20 years ago. Add to that politicians and power brokers, I do not know how DC will change in the next 4 years but status quo is not going to allow the country function optimally for its people who are desperate to try any thing different. Let us be hopeful and stay on top of our investing game.
The 2025 Project Anti-democratic, pro-dictatorship Convicted (other lawsuits on hold) Anti-abortion Tariffs Anti-Ukraine, pro Russia Far right Supreme Court agenda Isolationism
Morally bankrupt
.....And now we go backwards at an accelerated rate...
Let me offer this to you guys and take it for what it is worth -
When I accept all the bad things some of you ascribe to the other side (and repeated in the media daily) as a given, I can not help but think "Seems to me it should have been a cake walk to win against such a bad offering. So, what went wrong? Was the product offered by the Democratic Party inferior or was it just a bad sales job?"
By all accounts, Trump is a worse candidate in 2024 than he was in 2016 but he did far better in 2024 than in 2016. Makes me think Democratic Party governing class needs some self reflection. I have personally experienced extreme behavior from both parties' governance. When the extreme behavior is from the winners, they usually end up overdoing it in both scope and scale and end up the easy losers the next time.
With your permission, I would like us to get back to predicting investment opportunities in the next four years. I am also game for any other productive use of time.
Democratic party can start their work / campaign for the next election today. If I were them, I would pardon right away all the non-violent Jan 6ers (no point ascribing intent), given that in a couple of months all cases against Trump will be dropped and he will pardon the Jan 6ers. Why not get to most of the same result and may be earn some political good will by releasing early some of these Jan 6ers. Let them go home to their families and let them start being productive if they chose to. Two more months in jail is not going to have any remedial impact.
If the party was savvy, they would have done that before the elections. Better late than never to shore up the party balance sheet.
The deeper question is just what it says about Trump voters, casting their ballots for a known and convicted felon who abuses women, does not pay his bills, went through six bankruptcies, has a peachy-keen relationship with our adversary Putin, attempted to reverse the result of the 2020 election, faces still more criminal trials, and was impeached twice. But the multi-delayed trials will disappear soon. By his own doing. And this time, Trump can claim the popular vote, too.
What has this country become? I do not like it, Sam I Am. I do not like green eggs and ham.
Someone on another board thread, which has been closed due to being political, posted the following:
"As for the poll, I was surprised only by the size of DT's win and the relative issue-less vote counting."
Do they think if the results would have been different it would have been "issue-less" vote counting? Will it actually open any eyes that they've been conned by all the "rigged election BS" the last 2 elections? All the "democrats cheat" has gone away. They've been had and I don't think they even realize it. Will they think what else have I been conned on? I doubt it. Easy marks.
Good segment this a.m. on Marketplace, re: the IRA renewables tax credits. Some pundits think they'll be among the first things to be eliminated (if the House goes R), but red state R reps (18 of them) have told Speaker Mike that they don't want them touched because they've been such a success in their districts*.
Upshot: The existing credits may not be cut, but any additional climate/renewables legislation hasn't got a chance.
Investment implication: Renewables equity may not be entirely the lost cause you might expect, at least for a while.
* Not a single R voted for the bill, though some do like to claim credit for it.
To some of the earlier posts, you might miss out on some good people in life if you prejudge them based on which party or candidate they vote for. I personally know some disgusting people from both parties. (Apologies if this implies I am judging God.) I do not want to live on the same planet as some of these people. Who a person votes for at best tells you about the single issue they care about as there are too many single issue voters. Good luck to all of us for finding fulfilling relationships and never have to protect ourselves from other people (an elusive hope?).
I am grateful for some generous posters in this forum, at least one of them may have voted for the way I did not vote for. At the same time, there are posters I wish every day I could block their posts. Not giving us the Ignore feature is the one big thing that is subpar about this forum but I have to appreciate the good people I get to interact as a result of this forum.
Extrapolating @WABAC’s post, let us consider how front running potential Tariffs might show up in economic data, company profits, and interest rates.
I'm certainly keeping an eye out for thoughts on how tariffs will effect equities, if he carries through on his threats. I can't imagine they will do much good for any sector.
I don't think anyone knows where rates are going, so I'm staying mostly short or variable.
Thanks @WABAC. I Know you redid your fixed income funds. What do you have now?
I own a little of CBLDX, NRDCX, and DHEAX but mostly in USFR and MM.
Fixed income and Chinese stocks exhaust me - too many hot stove moments - but I am still in Chinese stocks which for reasons I do not know are having convulsions today.
Maybe because of the threatened 60% tariffs on anything out of China?
I was thinking about that this morning, idly speculating about possible importance to my wife and I. My first thought was "well, we don't really buy all that much from China". But then I considered the kinds of stuff that we have bought from China, and might need to buy again.
During the pandemic we needed to replace one refrigerator and one freezer. Additionally we added another smaller freezer to increase our storage capacity. All of that was made in China, regardless of "American-sounding" brand names.
We also have bought a fair amount of electronics products in the past few years. We don't need anything right now, but when something stops working the replacement is going to cost 60% more. It's not as if we will have a choice- very little in the way of appliances or electronics is made here.
Think about hand tools and electric power tools used by the building trades- almost all of that stuff is manufactured in China, regardless of good old American labels like "Stanley", "DEWALT" or "Milwaukee", or even respected Japanese labels like Makita. Those sorts of tools are replaced frequently, and are built into the price of every new building.
One specific crucial item that no one has even mentioned: electric utility large transformers. Every electric utility requires these specialized transformers- they are used in all of the large electric power distribution systems, and even in larger buildings and industrial complexes. They are used to "transform" very high distribution voltages down to the lower voltages which are actually used for power at the local level.
These transformers used to be made here in the USA, primarily by General Electric and a few smaller companies. Those transformers used a coolant fluid (PCBs) which was extremely toxic and long-lasting, and extremely polluting when handled carelessly.
The concerns about the coolants resulted in the transfer of manufacturing these transformers to China. To my knowledge, today there is no other viable source for these specialized and critical-use transformers. Some of these transformers are special design, requiring very long manufacturing lead times. How many years would it take to build and get up to speed a manufacturing facility here in the USA which could fill this need?
Do you really believe that the incoming administration will know or care about any of this? (Not that the outgoing administration likely did either.)
@BaluBalu, the current bond fund lineup lineup in the IRA is MANHX, CBLDX, VRIG, PULS, USFR plus whatever is going with FBALX and PRWCX, and then a fair amount of dry powder in mm's.
I'm still looking to simplify, but don't want to lose out on the Santa Trump rally. XMHQ and FBALX are on the chopping block. I'll keep XMHQ for the taxable. PRWCX seems like all of the allocation fund I'm interested in.
Re Trump, I'm keeping an eye on GRID and GLIFX since they have a fair amount of foreign companies.
Hi @Old_Joe I had a better tariff products list from 5 years ago, that included items that would be common for construction (in the U.S.) of a riding lawn tractor, and related products. Most of the switches and mechanical assemblies that are needed, but 'are not' built here; and come from China. You may do a quick scroll through the list in the link to discover a few items. The list is from 2018. I noted recently, that when a steel tariff was placed in 2018 and my sister had to replace her refrigerator, the dealer told her the price increase after the new year would be 10%; so buy now.
@Old_Joe "Do you really believe that the incoming administration will know or care about any of this? (Not that the outgoing administration likely did either.)"
Comments
If, as he has suggested, he screws with the Fed that will be very destabilizing also.
It's going to be great when he eliminates taxes on SS. For a while. Until it goes broke because of no adjustment to it's funding sources. Oh, well... we've got ours... why should we care about the people behind us?
A lot will depend upon the people who are appointed to actually try to carry out his policies, and who hopefully have (unlike Trump) actual knowledge of how the financial systems actually work.
Putin will be really happy when we hand over the Ukraine. Oh, well... that's over there in Europe somewhere... why should we care?
Netanyahu will be also be very happy as we tell him to just get rid of all the Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank. Oh, well... that's over there in the Mideast somewhere... why should we care?
Some elements of big business will be very happy as our commitment to help stabilize the world's temperature becomes "inoperative", and we go full ahead with energy pollution. Oh, well... we've got ours... why should we care about our children and the people behind us?
Hey, I'm 85... what do I care anyway?
I am expecting Bay Area real estate where I live to underperform some of the Red States.
I am more interested in predicting the next bubble in industry. E.g., if you were able to figure out the real estate bubble during Bush Jr era, you could have ridden that puppy all the way up and then equally profited by shorting it.
I think there can be an unsustainable bubble in the next four years that can lead to a strong recession. Accurately predicting it can be profitable.
Control what you can.
Anti-democratic, pro-dictatorship
Convicted (other lawsuits on hold)
Anti-abortion
Tariffs
Anti-Ukraine, pro Russia
Far right Supreme Court agenda
Isolationism
Morally bankrupt
.....And now we go backwards at an accelerated rate...
Per the GOP playbook, it will always be Joe Biden's fault.
*You could also substitute Nancy Pelosi, Obama, Kamala Harris or Hunter Biden's name there.
When I accept all the bad things some of you ascribe to the other side (and repeated in the media daily) as a given, I can not help but think "Seems to me it should have been a cake walk to win against such a bad offering. So, what went wrong? Was the product offered by the Democratic Party inferior or was it just a bad sales job?"
By all accounts, Trump is a worse candidate in 2024 than he was in 2016 but he did far better in 2024 than in 2016. Makes me think Democratic Party governing class needs some self reflection. I have personally experienced extreme behavior from both parties' governance. When the extreme behavior is from the winners, they usually end up overdoing it in both scope and scale and end up the easy losers the next time.
With your permission, I would like us to get back to predicting investment opportunities in the next four years. I am also game for any other productive use of time.
If the party was savvy, they would have done that before the elections. Better late than never to shore up the party balance sheet.
What has this country become? I do not like it, Sam I Am. I do not like green eggs and ham.
"As for the poll, I was surprised only by the size of DT's win and the relative issue-less vote counting."
Do they think if the results would have been different it would have been "issue-less" vote counting? Will it actually open any eyes that they've been conned by all the "rigged election BS" the last 2 elections? All the "democrats cheat" has gone away. They've been had and I don't think they even realize it. Will they think what else have I been conned on? I doubt it. Easy marks.
And on his wonderful coat-tails ride the likes of Elon Musk, RFK jr. and JD Vance.
Ah, but the joke will be on us.
Upshot: The existing credits may not be cut, but any additional climate/renewables legislation hasn't got a chance.
Investment implication: Renewables equity may not be entirely the lost cause you might expect, at least for a while.
* Not a single R voted for the bill, though some do like to claim credit for it.
I am grateful for some generous posters in this forum, at least one of them may have voted for the way I did not vote for. At the same time, there are posters I wish every day I could block their posts. Not giving us the Ignore feature is the one big thing that is subpar about this forum but I have to appreciate the good people I get to interact as a result of this forum.
I don't think anyone knows where rates are going, so I'm staying mostly short or variable.
I own a little of CBLDX, NRDCX, and DHEAX but mostly in USFR and MM.
Fixed income and Chinese stocks exhaust me - too many hot stove moments - but I am still in Chinese stocks which for reasons I do not know are having convulsions today.
Maybe because of the threatened 60% tariffs on anything out of China?
I was thinking about that this morning, idly speculating about possible importance to my wife and I. My first thought was "well, we don't really buy all that much from China". But then I considered the kinds of stuff that we have bought from China, and might need to buy again.
During the pandemic we needed to replace one refrigerator and one freezer. Additionally we added another smaller freezer to increase our storage capacity. All of that was made in China, regardless of "American-sounding" brand names.
We also have bought a fair amount of electronics products in the past few years. We don't need anything right now, but when something stops working the replacement is going to cost 60% more. It's not as if we will have a choice- very little in the way of appliances or electronics is made here.
Think about hand tools and electric power tools used by the building trades- almost all of that stuff is manufactured in China, regardless of good old American labels like "Stanley", "DEWALT" or "Milwaukee", or even respected Japanese labels like Makita. Those sorts of tools are replaced frequently, and are built into the price of every new building.
One specific crucial item that no one has even mentioned: electric utility large transformers. Every electric utility requires these specialized transformers- they are used in all of the large electric power distribution systems, and even in larger buildings and industrial complexes. They are used to "transform" very high distribution voltages down to the lower voltages which are actually used for power at the local level.
These transformers used to be made here in the USA, primarily by General Electric and a few smaller companies. Those transformers used a coolant fluid (PCBs) which was extremely toxic and long-lasting, and extremely polluting when handled carelessly.
The concerns about the coolants resulted in the transfer of manufacturing these transformers to China. To my knowledge, today there is no other viable source for these specialized and critical-use transformers. Some of these transformers are special design, requiring very long manufacturing lead times. How many years would it take to build and get up to speed a manufacturing facility here in the USA which could fill this need?
Do you really believe that the incoming administration will know or care about any of this? (Not that the outgoing administration likely did either.)
I'm still looking to simplify, but don't want to lose out on the Santa Trump rally. XMHQ and FBALX are on the chopping block. I'll keep XMHQ for the taxable. PRWCX seems like all of the allocation fund I'm interested in.
Re Trump, I'm keeping an eye on GRID and GLIFX since they have a fair amount of foreign companies.
I had a better tariff products list from 5 years ago, that included items that would be common for construction (in the U.S.) of a riding lawn tractor, and related products. Most of the switches and mechanical assemblies that are needed, but 'are not' built here; and come from China. You may do a quick scroll through the list in the link to discover a few items. The list is from 2018.
I noted recently, that when a steel tariff was placed in 2018 and my sister had to replace her refrigerator, the dealer told her the price increase after the new year would be 10%; so buy now.
2018 Tariff list (partial)
Thank you, I needed a good laugh !
At the very least, inferior to MFO.