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The 20% gain in the S&P 500 is the best start to a year since 1997 and 17th best in history.
Retail sales grew 2.1% over the last year, well below the historical average of 4.6%. And if we adjust for higher prices, they actually fell 0.5% versus the typical inflation-adjusted gain of 2%.
The Personal Savings Rate in the US has moved down to 2.9% . . .The average savings rate over the last 30 years is 5.8%.
The months’ supply of Existing Homes has moved up to 4.2
[If I remove from the chart the 2005 to 2012 years supply skewed by housing fraud, 4.2 months supply looks pretty normal to me on the chart. Existing home supply seems pretty good and if there is not enough demand, then watch for prices to come down.]
20 Rules for Markets and Investing... 00:00 Intro 00:20 Rule #1: Be humble. 01:11 Rule #2: Don't trust, verify. 02:57 Rule #3: Play the long game. 05:24 Rule #4: Understand that every time is different. 07:41 Rule #5: Pay no heed to predictions and price targets. 09:24 Rule #6: Embrace risk. 10:47 Rule #7: Buy the haystack. 13:16 Rule #8: Fight the Fed. 16:43 Rule #9: Expect the unexpected. 18:10 Rule #10: Don't chase the past. 20:16 Rule #11: Focus on saving before investing. 23:42 Rule #12: Simplify whenever possible. 26:27 Rule #13: Learn to be good at suffering. 27:54 Rule #14: Never interrupt compounding unnecessarily. 29:29 Rule #15: Tune out the noise. 32:01 Rule #16: Respect reversion to the mean. 34:15 Rule #17: Know what you own and why you own it. 39:36 Rule #18: Diversify, diversify, diversify. 41:44 Rule #19: Control your emotions. 44:05 Rule #20: Value time over money.
The most important charts and themes in markets and investing, including: 00:00 Intro 00:19 Free Wealth Path Analysis 01:04 Topics 01:57 The Resilient Jobs Market 04:41 Labor Market: Still Cooling 08:34 Big Shift in Fed Easing Expectations 10:52 Bond Market Got Ahead of Itself 14:32 China Goes Parabolic 22:45 Declining Dividend Yields 25:25 More Affordable Rents
S&P 500 - second Lowest ever dividend yield (1.27%) and highest P/E (25) and highest P/S (3.0)
For a different context, current S&P 500 forward P/E is 21.6 while the highest forward P/E ever was in 1999 at 25.5. If one thinks we are far in bubbly territory, I guess we are from frothy territory?
Yet for a different context, the S&P 500 forward P/E has increased from 15.3 during the October 12, 2022 week to the current 21.6. So give or take the P/E has increased about 40% while the price increased 60% during this period.
May be someone here can give their analysis of whether P is running sustainably too far ahead of the increase in E.
I must state the old refrain - valuation is a bad timing tool.
The most important charts and themes in markets and investing, including: 00:00 Intro 00:16 Free Wealth Path Analysis 00:54 Topics 01:41 Rising Prices at a Slower Pace 06:05 Market Expectations = Fed Expectations 13:24 The Rate Cut Tradeoff 16:39 Why Mortgage Rates Rose After the Fed Cut 21:50 What Are They Trying to Hide? 24:55 The Goldilocks Moment 29:56 Rising Real Wages
Item 4 discusses the cumulative increase in major CPI categories over the past 4 years and shows Medical care at 8% and Auto insurance at 60%. Why are we measuring Medical care, rather than Medical insurance? My medical insurance probably went up 60%. I already know my next year medical premium increase is 15%. CPI probably has measurement problem.
Item 8. US HY Credit spreads at 2.89% is the lowest since 2007. SPY dividend yield at 1.27%(tied with Q4 2021) is the lowest since 1999. Nothing to see here?
"High Yield Spreads are now at their tightest levels since June 2007 (2.89%) and Investment Grade Spreads at their tightest levels since March 2005 (0.83%). Bond investors are reaching for yield and behaving as if there will never be a default cycle again."
"Rents have been held down by a multi-family construction boom that significantly increased supply and is leading to the highest vacancy rates (6.7%) since 2020."
"And wage growth of close to 4% over the past year was 1.5% higher than the increase in CPI inflation. That was the 17th straight month in which wages outpaced inflation over the prior year, a great trend for the American worker that hopefully continues."
The most important charts and themes in markets and investing, including: 00:00 Intro 00:35 Topics 02:00 How Everything Could Change over the Next 10 Years 17:52 The AI-Driven Multiple Expansion 28:29 Reaching for Yield Like It's 2007 35:00 Rise of the Bond Vigilantes 44:06 Stock Picking Is Hard, Netflix Edition 46:09 Are Workers Today Better off Than 50 Years Ago?
I listened to a very tiny little bit of it. They were talking about how the 2014 predictions said small cap were going to do better than large cap over the next 10 years LOL. I then closed it.
I listened to a very tiny little bit of it. They were talking about how the 2014 predictions said small cap were going to do better than large cap over the next 10 years LOL. I then closed it.
"High Yield Spreads are now at their tightest levels since June 2007 (2.89%) and Investment Grade Spreads at their tightest levels since March 2005 (0.83%). Bond investors are reaching for yield and behaving as if there will never be a default cycle again."
I moved a portion of floating rate bonds to investment grade bonds several months ago in light of the spread is getting smaller. So far the floating rate bonds keep on moving up while the IG bonds stay flat or went down. Go figure! The economy seems to moving along well, so I pause…
The most important charts and themes in markets and investing, including: 00:00 Intro 00:55 Topics 02:04 A Cooling Labor Market 08:17 The Expansion Continues 10:31 All Roads Lead to Inflation 17:49 Market to Fed: Slow Down 20:47 Big Earnings From Big Tech 25:56 A Housing Market Frozen in Time 32:25 More Affordable Rents
The most important charts and themes in markets and investing, including: 00:00 Intro 01:00 Topics 02:02 A Rally for the Ages 14:29 Easing Into a Melt-up 26:18 Intel Out, Nvidia In 29:12 Earnings Update 30:41 Buffett Getting More Bearish 34:00 Falling Gas Prices
Comments
These got my attention -
The 20% gain in the S&P 500 is the best start to a year since 1997 and 17th best in history.
Retail sales grew 2.1% over the last year, well below the historical average of 4.6%. And if we adjust for higher prices, they actually fell 0.5% versus the typical inflation-adjusted gain of 2%.
The Personal Savings Rate in the US has moved down to 2.9% . . .The average savings rate over the last 30 years is 5.8%.
The months’ supply of Existing Homes has moved up to 4.2
[If I remove from the chart the 2005 to 2012 years supply skewed by housing fraud, 4.2 months supply looks pretty normal to me on the chart. Existing home supply seems pretty good and if there is not enough demand, then watch for prices to come down.]
20 Rules for Markets and Investing...
00:00 Intro
00:20 Rule #1: Be humble.
01:11 Rule #2: Don't trust, verify.
02:57 Rule #3: Play the long game.
05:24 Rule #4: Understand that every time is different.
07:41 Rule #5: Pay no heed to predictions and price targets.
09:24 Rule #6: Embrace risk.
10:47 Rule #7: Buy the haystack.
13:16 Rule #8: Fight the Fed.
16:43 Rule #9: Expect the unexpected.
18:10 Rule #10: Don't chase the past.
20:16 Rule #11: Focus on saving before investing.
23:42 Rule #12: Simplify whenever possible.
26:27 Rule #13: Learn to be good at suffering.
27:54 Rule #14: Never interrupt compounding unnecessarily.
29:29 Rule #15: Tune out the noise.
32:01 Rule #16: Respect reversion to the mean.
34:15 Rule #17: Know what you own and why you own it.
39:36 Rule #18: Diversify, diversify, diversify.
41:44 Rule #19: Control your emotions.
44:05 Rule #20: Value time over money.
Video
Blog - 10/01 blog not currently available
The most important charts and themes in markets and investing, including:
00:00 Intro
00:19 Free Wealth Path Analysis
01:04 Topics
01:57 The Resilient Jobs Market
04:41 Labor Market: Still Cooling
08:34 Big Shift in Fed Easing Expectations
10:52 Bond Market Got Ahead of Itself
14:32 China Goes Parabolic
22:45 Declining Dividend Yields
25:25 More Affordable Rents
Video
Blog - 10/08 blog not currently available
S&P 500 - second Lowest ever dividend yield (1.27%) and highest P/E (25) and highest P/S (3.0)
Yet for a different context, the S&P 500 forward P/E has increased from 15.3 during the October 12, 2022 week to the current 21.6. So give or take the P/E has increased about 40% while the price increased 60% during this period.
May be someone here can give their analysis of whether P is running sustainably too far ahead of the increase in E.
I must state the old refrain - valuation is a bad timing tool.
The most important charts and themes in markets and investing, including:
00:00 Intro
00:16 Free Wealth Path Analysis
00:54 Topics
01:41 Rising Prices at a Slower Pace
06:05 Market Expectations = Fed Expectations
13:24 The Rate Cut Tradeoff
16:39 Why Mortgage Rates Rose After the Fed Cut
21:50 What Are They Trying to Hide?
24:55 The Goldilocks Moment
29:56 Rising Real Wages
Video
Blog - 10/11 blog not currently available
Item 4 discusses the cumulative increase in major CPI categories over the past 4 years and shows Medical care at 8% and Auto insurance at 60%. Why are we measuring Medical care, rather than Medical insurance? My medical insurance probably went up 60%. I already know my next year medical premium increase is 15%. CPI probably has measurement problem.
Item 8. US HY Credit spreads at 2.89% is the lowest since 2007. SPY dividend yield at 1.27%(tied with Q4 2021) is the lowest since 1999. Nothing to see here?
The State of the Markets, including...
00:00 Intro
00:14 Topics
00:26 Stocks
08:35 Free Wealth Path Analysis
09:17 Bonds/Fed
16:54 Real Estate/Housing
21:15 Commodities
23:57 Currencies
26:17 Crypto
27:52 Intermarket
33:56 Economy
Video
Blog - 10/19 blog not currently available
"High Yield Spreads are now at their tightest levels since June 2007 (2.89%) and Investment Grade Spreads at their tightest levels since March 2005 (0.83%). Bond investors are reaching for yield and behaving as if there will never be a default cycle again."
"Rents have been held down by a multi-family construction boom that significantly increased supply and is leading to the highest vacancy rates (6.7%) since 2020."
"And wage growth of close to 4% over the past year was 1.5% higher than the increase in CPI inflation. That was the 17th straight month in which wages outpaced inflation over the prior year, a great trend for the American worker that hopefully continues."
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/21/opinion/inflation-mistakes.html
The most important charts and themes in markets and investing, including:
00:00 Intro
00:35 Topics
02:00 How Everything Could Change over the Next 10 Years
17:52 The AI-Driven Multiple Expansion
28:29 Reaching for Yield Like It's 2007
35:00 Rise of the Bond Vigilantes
44:06 Stock Picking Is Hard, Netflix Edition
46:09 Are Workers Today Better off Than 50 Years Ago?
Video
Blog
Pl share if you listened to the prognosis for next 10 yrs. It is 15 min long.
The most important charts and themes in markets and investing, including:
00:00 Intro
00:55 Topics
02:04 A Cooling Labor Market
08:17 The Expansion Continues
10:31 All Roads Lead to Inflation
17:49 Market to Fed: Slow Down
20:47 Big Earnings From Big Tech
25:56 A Housing Market Frozen in Time
32:25 More Affordable Rents
Video
Blog
https://bilello.blog/2024/the-week-in-charts-11-4-24
The most important charts and themes in markets and investing, including:
00:00 Intro
01:00 Topics
02:02 A Rally for the Ages
14:29 Easing Into a Melt-up
26:18 Intel Out, Nvidia In
29:12 Earnings Update
30:41 Buffett Getting More Bearish
34:00 Falling Gas Prices
Video
Blog