Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
The most important charts and themes in markets, including... 00:00 Intro 00:15 Topics 01:12 A New King Is Crowned 07:53 The Running of the Bulls 11:12 Partying Like It's 1999 16:40 The Mega Cap Premium 19:17 Consumer Weakness or Consumer Strength? 22:41 Housing Market Rundown 29:00 Inflation Trending Lower
The most important charts and themes in markets, including... 00:00 Intro 00:16 Topics 01:47 A Tale of Two Markets 11:41 Getting Closer to a Rate Cut 14:36 Down Goes the Yen 17:51 Obesity Drug Boom 19:48 Nvidia vs. Cisco 22:53 Rising Housing Supply 30:25 Immune to Higher Rates? 35:34 Travel Boom Continues
The most important charts and themes in markets, including... 00:00 Intro 00:21 Topics 01:30 Betting on a Rate Cut 06:07 The All-Time High Party Continues 12:25 Investors Getting Greedy 14:18 Apple's Highest Valuation Ever 16:37 Tesla's Incredible Comeback 18:28 A Coordinated Contraction 21:11 More Listings = More Price Drops 23:17 Cheaper Rents
The most important charts and themes in markets, including... 00:00 Intro 00:15 Topics 01:11 Down Goes Inflation 08:23 Here Come the Rate Cuts 16:50 The Rotation Heard Round the World 22:58 An All-Time High a Day 24:50 Last 10 Years: Fundamental Gains vs. Share Price Gains 27:25 Costco's Highest Valuation Ever 29:45 Nike's Biggest Drawdown Since 2000 31:29 The Most Important Chart in an Economy
Perhaps 80% of OEFs / ETFs are "unnecessary" and their disappearance wouldn't impact most investors. The number of publicly listed companies has decreased significantly from the 1996 peak.
"The count of publicly listed companies traded on US exchanges has fallen substantially from its peak in 1996. Back then, the number exceeded 8,000 companies. Today that count has dropped by more than 50% to just 3700, according to data from the Center for Research in Security Prices."
"It’s not that America has half as many companies as 30 years ago – it’s that companies are increasingly staying private, largely outside the scrutiny of the public eye. Publicly listed companies are subject to regulatory oversight and disclosure requirements, which help ensure transparency and maintain investor confidence. With fewer companies listed, there may be a decrease in overall transparency and investor trust in the market, said Matthew Kennedy, head of data and content at Renaissance Capital."
The most important charts and themes in markets and investing, including: 00:00 Intro 00:49 Topics 01:52 Bad News Is Bad News Again 06:48 The Biggest Correction of the Year 11:59 50 Bps in September? 18:41 Bonds Are Acting Like a Hedge Again 21:43 Another Ignominious Debt Milestone 24:21 Millennials and Zoomers Not Leaving the Nest 28:07 Q2 Earnings Update (Microsoft/Meta/Amazon/Apple) 31:52 More Affordable Rents
Thanks again for another excellent show. Several point I like to point out:
1. A 50 Bps rate cut in September seems to be unrealistic. The Fed is in no hurry to cut but Powell made the statement that a rate cut in on the table. The worst is cut too aggressively and too soon, and inflation rises again. Tough act for the Fed to juggle between full employment while keeping inflation at 2%.
2. 6% pullback this week is not usual despite of many bad news. Not all sectors are down. The defensive sectors including consumer staples, health care, and utility are all up from previous week.
XLU was up 4.3% for the week which makes no sense if the economy is falling out of bed. At the end of October, 10 yr was at 4.9% and ended at 3.8% on 12/26. During that drastic drop in 10 yr rates, XLU did not rise or behave as well as it has done in the past 2 months when 10 yr rates dropped from a much, much lower level. XLU, as a staple necessity, not losing would make sense but gain so strongly if the economy is going to fall out of bed? I am not sure.
I am guessing its recent behavior is just a reflection of moderating inflation expectations and consequential interest rates but not a signal about the economy. I am not sure inflation goes back to pre-Covid era without change in people's attitudes. Also, there is that onshoring related inflation but I will believe onshoring when I see it in size (outside the Chip sector). I am expecting deficits will come down as tax rates increase - sort of why Buffett is booking gains in Apple stock at the current lower rates. So, the inflation related to Govt spending likely comes down but that related to people's attitudes may not, unless there is pressure on wages. Only if we could make that hallucinating generative AI to work!
What will happen to 10 yr rates and wages if services come strong next week and the next employment report comes stronger than the last one?
Jackson Hole is not for another three weeks. Please post if you know when J Powel speaks before Jackson Hole.
The most important charts and themes in markets and investing, including: 00:00 Intro 01:08 Topics 01:52 The Nikkei's 1987 Moment 06:12 A Monday Morning Panic 14:21 Is Buffett Turning Bearish? 20:41 Do We Really Need an "Emergency" Rate Cut? 28:03 Why the Yield Curve is Close to Turning Positive Again 32:09 Rising Credit Card Delinquencies 35:40 High Yield Bonds Not Pricing in a Recession 37:45 Q2 Earnings Update 40:19 Lower Gas Prices
The most important charts and themes in markets and investing, including: 00:00 Intro 00:24 Free Wealth Path Analysis 01:02 Topics 02:12 The Biggest Volatility Crash in History 05:55 A V-Shaped Rebound 09:52 Down Goes Inflation 17:06 Say Goodbye to the "Emergency" Rate Cut 21:20 Plunging Housing Starts 28:10 Starbucks Surge 31:08 The Decline of the Department Store 33:31 Rising Real Wages
The most important charts and themes in markets and investing, including: 00:00 Intro 00:19 Free Wealth Path Analysis 01:48 Topics 03:18 From Panic to Euphoria 06:23 Frontrunning the Fed 08:47 Is the Unwinding of the "Carry Trade" Over? 10:59 The Fed's Revisionist History 18:19 Dollar Down, Gold Up 21:02 A Tale of Two Housing Markets 28:14 Q2 Earnings Update 29:38 The Inexorable Rise of E-Commerce 31:13 Lower Gas Prices
The most important charts and themes in markets and investing, including: 00:00 Intro 00:20 Free Wealth Path Analysis 01:06 Topics 01:59 Priced for Perfection 07:28 The AI Arms Race 13:11 Berkshire Joins the Trillion Dollar Club 17:22 The Return of Sound Money 25:09 Shrinking Salaries 28:55 Double the Down Payment 31:18 Is the Lock-in Effect Starting to Ease? 37:00 More Affordable Rents
The most important charts and themes in markets and investing, including: 00:00 Intro 00:33 Free Wealth Path Analysis 01:27 Topics 03:04 The Cooling Labor Market 11:56 Longest Inversion in History Is Over 16:45 Be Careful What You Wish For 24:02 A September Swoon or Something Bigger? 36:20 Dollar Store Downturn 40:30 Wages Outpacing Inflation
1. Very timely to wrap up the labor market data and trend. 25 bps rate cut is the most probable on September’s FED meeting. 2. September is generally weak for stock market. Tech pullback in recent weeks is an example. Again the defensive sectors such as consumer staple and utility move in opposite direction from technology and consumer discretionary sectors. 3. Longer end Bond yield is falling to 3.8% that benefits the broader bond market. The 12 month total return of AGG has outpaced money market. 4. The downturns of Dollar Tree, Dollar Stores and Big Lots indicate the consumers are struggling with retail goods and food, while Walmart is rising.
I get Charlie's stuff in my email a few days earlier and so I do not get to visit this thread often.
#4 above has been on my mind for a while. I can not say consumers are struggling without knowing if the total market has shrunk. Charlie needs to figure out if we are seeing a consolidation in these markets and also if some of the low end consumers are moving up in their preferences, helping Walmart at the expense of the low end retailers.
Are we moving towards a Big three in this market: Amazon, Walmart, and Costco, all three stocks trading at unbelievable valuations?
"In its second-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings report, Walmart raised its full-year guidance for net sales growth and operating income growth. The company also reported strong sales growth in both its U.S. and international segments."
Here is something that big retailers are doing to their suppliers. Walmart has been doing this for years in order to lower their prices, and consolidating the retailers, killing off the mom and pop retailers, for example.
If you are able to include a link to Charlie's week in charts blog post, those members that like to read rather than to listen could benefit as well. It usually takes only a few minutes to go through the blog post. Thanks.
Edit: "Discount retailer Big Lots has filed for bankruptcy protection and plans to sell the chain’s assets and ongoing business in a court-supervised process."
The most important charts and themes in markets and investing, including: 00:00 Intro 00:21 Free Wealth Path Analysis 01:06 Topics 02:42 The Inflation Downtrend Continues 07:57 The Most Absurd Number in CPI 10:46 What Should/Will the Fed Do? 18:45 Don't Try This at Home 23:47 Big Tech's Incredible Run 28:11 The Watch Bubble Has Burst 31:22 Americans Falling Behind on Their Bills 36:11 The Path to Prosperity
The most important charts and themes in markets and investing, including: 00:00 Intro 00:25 Free Wealth Path Analysis 01:11 Topics 02:14 The Easing Cycle Has Begun 15:15 Everything Is Up 18:32 Is the Consumer Pulling Back? 24:50 Will Lower Mortgage Rates Unfreeze the Housing Market? 29:42 The Other Side of Mania 31:34 Democratizing Education
Comments
The most important charts and themes in markets, including...
00:00 Intro
00:15 Topics
01:12 A New King Is Crowned
07:53 The Running of the Bulls
11:12 Partying Like It's 1999
16:40 The Mega Cap Premium
19:17 Consumer Weakness or Consumer Strength?
22:41 Housing Market Rundown
29:00 Inflation Trending Lower
Video
The most important charts and themes in markets, including...
00:00 Intro
00:16 Topics
01:47 A Tale of Two Markets
11:41 Getting Closer to a Rate Cut
14:36 Down Goes the Yen
17:51 Obesity Drug Boom
19:48 Nvidia vs. Cisco
22:53 Rising Housing Supply
30:25 Immune to Higher Rates?
35:34 Travel Boom Continues
Video
The most important charts and themes in markets, including...
00:00 Intro
00:21 Topics
01:30 Betting on a Rate Cut
06:07 The All-Time High Party Continues
12:25 Investors Getting Greedy
14:18 Apple's Highest Valuation Ever
16:37 Tesla's Incredible Comeback
18:28 A Coordinated Contraction
21:11 More Listings = More Price Drops
23:17 Cheaper Rents
Video
The most important charts and themes in markets, including...
00:00 Intro
00:15 Topics
01:11 Down Goes Inflation
08:23 Here Come the Rate Cuts
16:50 The Rotation Heard Round the World
22:58 An All-Time High a Day
24:50 Last 10 Years: Fundamental Gains vs. Share Price Gains
27:25 Costco's Highest Valuation Ever
29:45 Nike's Biggest Drawdown Since 2000
31:29 The Most Important Chart in an Economy
Video
The most important charts and themes in markets and investing.
Video
A disturbing stat - 8(d) "There are now about 3 times as many stock mutual funds and ETFs in the US as there are publicly traded equities."
The number of publicly listed companies has decreased significantly from the 1996 peak.
"The count of publicly listed companies traded on US exchanges has fallen substantially from its peak in 1996. Back then, the number exceeded 8,000 companies. Today that count has dropped by more than 50% to just 3700, according to data from the Center for Research in Security Prices."
"It’s not that America has half as many companies as 30 years ago – it’s that companies are increasingly staying private, largely outside the scrutiny of the public eye. Publicly listed companies are subject to regulatory oversight and disclosure requirements, which help ensure transparency and maintain investor confidence. With fewer companies listed, there may be a decrease in overall transparency and investor trust in the market, said Matthew Kennedy, head of data and content at Renaissance Capital."
https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/09/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html
The most important charts and themes in markets and investing, including:
00:00 Intro
00:49 Topics
01:52 Bad News Is Bad News Again
06:48 The Biggest Correction of the Year
11:59 50 Bps in September?
18:41 Bonds Are Acting Like a Hedge Again
21:43 Another Ignominious Debt Milestone
24:21 Millennials and Zoomers Not Leaving the Nest
28:07 Q2 Earnings Update (Microsoft/Meta/Amazon/Apple)
31:52 More Affordable Rents
Video
1. A 50 Bps rate cut in September seems to be unrealistic. The Fed is in no hurry to cut but Powell made the statement that a rate cut in on the table. The worst is cut too aggressively and too soon, and inflation rises again. Tough act for the Fed to juggle between full employment while keeping inflation at 2%.
2. 6% pullback this week is not usual despite of many bad news. Not all sectors are down. The defensive sectors including consumer staples, health care, and utility are all up from previous week.
XLU was up 4.3% for the week which makes no sense if the economy is falling out of bed. At the end of October, 10 yr was at 4.9% and ended at 3.8% on 12/26. During that drastic drop in 10 yr rates, XLU did not rise or behave as well as it has done in the past 2 months when 10 yr rates dropped from a much, much lower level. XLU, as a staple necessity, not losing would make sense but gain so strongly if the economy is going to fall out of bed? I am not sure.
I am guessing its recent behavior is just a reflection of moderating inflation expectations and consequential interest rates but not a signal about the economy. I am not sure inflation goes back to pre-Covid era without change in people's attitudes. Also, there is that onshoring related inflation but I will believe onshoring when I see it in size (outside the Chip sector). I am expecting deficits will come down as tax rates increase - sort of why Buffett is booking gains in Apple stock at the current lower rates. So, the inflation related to Govt spending likely comes down but that related to people's attitudes may not, unless there is pressure on wages. Only if we could make that hallucinating generative AI to work!
What will happen to 10 yr rates and wages if services come strong next week and the next employment report comes stronger than the last one?
Jackson Hole is not for another three weeks. Please post if you know when J Powel speaks before Jackson Hole.
The most important charts and themes in markets and investing, including:
00:00 Intro
01:08 Topics
01:52 The Nikkei's 1987 Moment
06:12 A Monday Morning Panic
14:21 Is Buffett Turning Bearish?
20:41 Do We Really Need an "Emergency" Rate Cut?
28:03 Why the Yield Curve is Close to Turning Positive Again
32:09 Rising Credit Card Delinquencies
35:40 High Yield Bonds Not Pricing in a Recession
37:45 Q2 Earnings Update
40:19 Lower Gas Prices
Video
The most important charts and themes in markets and investing, including:
00:00 Intro
00:24 Free Wealth Path Analysis
01:02 Topics
02:12 The Biggest Volatility Crash in History
05:55 A V-Shaped Rebound
09:52 Down Goes Inflation
17:06 Say Goodbye to the "Emergency" Rate Cut
21:20 Plunging Housing Starts
28:10 Starbucks Surge
31:08 The Decline of the Department Store
33:31 Rising Real Wages
Video
The most important charts and themes in markets and investing, including:
00:00 Intro
00:19 Free Wealth Path Analysis
01:48 Topics
03:18 From Panic to Euphoria
06:23 Frontrunning the Fed
08:47 Is the Unwinding of the "Carry Trade" Over?
10:59 The Fed's Revisionist History
18:19 Dollar Down, Gold Up
21:02 A Tale of Two Housing Markets
28:14 Q2 Earnings Update
29:38 The Inexorable Rise of E-Commerce
31:13 Lower Gas Prices
Video
Thank you again/still for these.
The most important charts and themes in markets and investing, including:
00:00 Intro
00:20 Free Wealth Path Analysis
01:06 Topics
01:59 Priced for Perfection
07:28 The AI Arms Race
13:11 Berkshire Joins the Trillion Dollar Club
17:22 The Return of Sound Money
25:09 Shrinking Salaries
28:55 Double the Down Payment
31:18 Is the Lock-in Effect Starting to Ease?
37:00 More Affordable Rents
Video
The most important charts and themes in markets and investing, including:
00:00 Intro
00:33 Free Wealth Path Analysis
01:27 Topics
03:04 The Cooling Labor Market
11:56 Longest Inversion in History Is Over
16:45 Be Careful What You Wish For
24:02 A September Swoon or Something Bigger?
36:20 Dollar Store Downturn
40:30 Wages Outpacing Inflation
Video
1. Very timely to wrap up the labor market data and trend. 25 bps rate cut is the most probable on September’s FED meeting.
2. September is generally weak for stock market. Tech pullback in recent weeks is an example. Again the defensive sectors such as consumer staple and utility move in opposite direction from technology and consumer discretionary sectors.
3. Longer end Bond yield is falling to 3.8% that benefits the broader bond market. The 12 month total return of AGG has outpaced money market.
4. The downturns of Dollar Tree, Dollar Stores and Big Lots indicate the consumers are struggling with retail goods and food, while Walmart is rising.
#4 above has been on my mind for a while. I can not say consumers are struggling without knowing if the total market has shrunk. Charlie needs to figure out if we are seeing a consolidation in these markets and also if some of the low end consumers are moving up in their preferences, helping Walmart at the expense of the low end retailers.
Are we moving towards a Big three in this market: Amazon, Walmart, and Costco, all three stocks trading at unbelievable valuations?
"In its second-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings report, Walmart raised its full-year guidance for net sales growth and operating income growth. The company also reported strong sales growth in both its U.S. and international segments."
https://reuters.com/article/world/wal-mart-puts-the-squeeze-on-suppliers-to-share-its-pain-as-earnings-sag-idUSKCN0SD0CY/#:~:text=(Reuters)%20%2D%20Suppliers%20of%20everything,from%20the%20retailer%20last%20week.
A more recent article.
https://retailwire.com/discussion/will-walmart-throw-high-price-suppliers-off-the-shelf/
Question is this anti-competitive practices good for the consumers?
The proposed merger of Kroger and Albertsons is facing the same question.
If you are able to include a link to Charlie's week in charts blog post, those members that like to read rather than to listen could benefit as well. It usually takes only a few minutes to go through the blog post. Thanks.
Edit: "Discount retailer Big Lots has filed for bankruptcy protection and plans to sell the chain’s assets and ongoing business in a court-supervised process."
The most important charts and themes in markets and investing, including:
00:00 Intro
00:21 Free Wealth Path Analysis
01:06 Topics
02:42 The Inflation Downtrend Continues
07:57 The Most Absurd Number in CPI
10:46 What Should/Will the Fed Do?
18:45 Don't Try This at Home
23:47 Big Tech's Incredible Run
28:11 The Watch Bubble Has Burst
31:22 Americans Falling Behind on Their Bills
36:11 The Path to Prosperity
Video
Blog - 09/16 blog not currently available
The most important charts and themes in markets and investing, including:
00:00 Intro
00:25 Free Wealth Path Analysis
01:11 Topics
02:14 The Easing Cycle Has Begun
15:15 Everything Is Up
18:32 Is the Consumer Pulling Back?
24:50 Will Lower Mortgage Rates Unfreeze the Housing Market?
29:42 The Other Side of Mania
31:34 Democratizing Education
Video
Blog - 09/23 blog not currently available