Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
@msf Thank you for your efforts with the 'World Justice Project' and other in your write. The usual suspect countries are on the list. I was surprised that I do not find Israel on the list or map, but neighbor Jordan is listed. This seems strange to me. @bee Thank you for the reminder regarding Ms. Tolle and your ongoing posts of 'Wealthtrack'. I did previously review her Freedom fund.
This ruling and its implications take me back to the 2016 election cycle. One of my major concerns then was that whoever won that election might well have the ability to substantially reshape the composition of the Supreme Court. Unfortunately -- from my perspective -- that concern was not sufficiently highlighted by Clinton during her fall campaign.
Dismissing those worries, Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr., writing for the majority, argued that presidents stand apart from regular people, so protecting them from prosecution if they are accused of abusing their powers to commit official crimes is necessary.
“Unlike anyone else,” he wrote, “the president is a branch of government, and the Constitution vests in him sweeping powers and duties.”
He added: “Accounting for that reality — and ensuring that the president may exercise those powers forcefully, as the framers anticipated he would — does not place him above the law; it preserves the basic structure of the Constitution from which that law derives."
...The dissenting justices, he wrote, overlooked a “more likely prospect of an executive branch that cannibalizes itself, with each successive president free to prosecute his predecessors, yet unable to boldly and fearlessly carry out his duties for fear that he may be next.”
Robert's view is now the law of the land. If Trump is elected again this fall, we may in short order find out whether the dissenting justices' concerns are warranted. As @catch22 suggests, it will be up to the voters to decide whether we accept that risk.
I still cannot comprehend how supposedly rational men did such an about face.
This is from Heather Cox Richardson "Letters from an American" ( highly recomended)
Presidential immunity is a brand new doctrine. In February 2021, explaining away his vote to acquit Trump for inciting an insurrection, Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), who had also protected Trump in his first impeachment trial in 2019, said: “Trump is still liable for everything he did while he was in office…. We have a criminal justice system in this country. We have civil litigation, and former presidents are not immune from being held accountable by either one.”
But it was not just McConnell who thought that way. At his confirmation hearing in 2005, now–Chief Justice John Roberts said: “I believe that no one is above the law under our system and that includes the president. The president is fully bound by the law, the Constitution, and statutes.”
In his 2006 confirmation hearings, Samuel Alito said: “There is nothing that is more important for our republic than the rule of law. No person in this country, no matter how high or powerful, is above the law.”
And in 2018, Brett Kavanaugh told the Senate: “No one’s above the law in the United States, that’s a foundational principle…. We’re all equal before the law…. The foundation of our Constitution was that…the presidency would not be a monarchy…. [T]he president is not above the law, no one is above the law.”
This decision is mind boggling.
For example what is an "official act"? Can a President now order the military to shoot demonstrators on the spot claiming it is an official act? ( Trump wanted to remember?)
The military swears an oath to the Constitution and consequently can refuse "illegal" orders. What is an illegal order? Are all official acts, or acts the President says are "official" legal?
I think the investment consequences of this and "Chevron" are profound. Markets hate uncertainty. How can our times be more uncertain?
The military swears an oath to the Constitution and consequently can refuse "illegal" orders. What is an illegal order? Are all official acts, or acts the President says are "official" legal?
@sma3 I have read in 2 reviews of this ruling that only the President is allowed commit illegal acts. Anyone who follows a President's order to commit an illegal act can still be prosecuted for carrying out that order. Hopefully this information is correct! That way, it will be more likely that Presidents will be forced to carry out their own dirty deeds rather than ordering someone else to carry them out.
@catch, I am comfortable having this discussion staying in “other investing”. There are consequences of political spilling over into the investment world, and they are intimately tied together. As @junkster pointed out, Powell may loss his independent as the FED has historically been for many years.
@junkster, I have read similar assessment from Citi’s Jabaz Mathai, who wrote “We think that yields will be at risk of continuing the move higher from this week on expectations of tax cuts and higher Treasury supply with a Trump White House, with any tempering effect dependent on economic data.” This explains the recent rise of 10 years treasury yield despite the slowing economy and labor market over the last few months.
@davfor SCOTUS specifically listed the pardon as one of the Presidential powers that would be considered "official". It would appear to me that the President could pardon anyone who he ordered to perform an illegal act, and do it prospectively before conviction or even before a trial, just like Ford did for Nixon.
The only control over an authoritarian dictatorial President is now impeachment, and we saw how well that works
Trump has already "reposted" calls to have military tribunals try Liz Cheney and jail Biden, Schumer, Harris etc.
Anyone who says this is just posturing and"politics as usual" is deluding themselves. How can a country ( and markets) function with this level of vitriol and threats from a former (and potentially future) President?
We are screwed. Well and truly screwed. Thanks to the "supreme" court the United States is no longer the democracy that it has been since it's birth... that chapter is now closed. The next chapter is likely similar to many of those "well run" "financially stable" African or South American third-world countries whose fortunes swing wildly with every new tinpot "president" they choose. Or, in many cases, who is "chosen" for them.
I do take some comfort in the fact that Trump does not seem to be able to avoid telegraphing what he will do as President. The more people hear about what could happen the better, but the worse for our standing in the world and the more leery our allies will be of assuming a steady goal directed America. Soon they will be forced to cut deals with Putin and China.
However I have read that only 2/3s of people polled even know he was convicted in NYC. If your only news sources are Fox and TikTok...
We are screwed. Well and truly screwed. Thanks to the "supreme" court the United States is no longer the democracy that it has been since it's birth... that chapter is now closed. The next chapter is likely similar to many of those "well run" "financially stable" African or South American third-world countries whose fortunes swing wildly with every new tinpot "president" they choose. Or, in many cases, who is "chosen" for them.
Well-said, OJ. And again, it's the GQP who bleat about how we're becoming a "third world country" and "bananna republic" when it's their own idiotic shenanigans that are paving the way for that eventuality.
Even though I have a fantastic view from my place, part of me is hoping the weather waters down the DC fireworks tomorrow night as a symbol of what our present reality (and future) might be.
So once again, the GQP, enabled by the SCOTUS, has turned the country backwards in time, as this recent meme explains....
ahh...so the lawfare didn't work...Orange Man still standing (ya, I'll give you so far anyways)...and how come no one on this board is writing about how Biden does not have the stamina nor cognition for the role...and who is really running the country..the Bolshie Ron Klain, Jill Biden? and their diversity pick for VP is obviously not competent either so therefore all the angst, no?
Biden's presidency has been a total and complete flop...everything from intentionally opening the border to illegals consisting of who knows whom, a disaster re foreign policy, wars, emboldening Iran, not negotiating effectively prior to Putin marching into Ukraine, inflation up the wazoo which continues, using lawfare against his political opponents, out of control crime (don't BS me with false statistics, reporting of serious crime has been downgraded for the optics and many blue cities don't even report to the FBI stats anymore), freebies on the taxpayers dime, reducing school debt for many who make decent monies, what about the plumbers who didn't go to school to chase skirts and drink beer and screw off for 5 years?...and watching the debate...who in their right mind would think he is capable of holding office right now, let alone in the future?
@davfor SCOTUS specifically listed the pardon as one of the Presidential powers that would be considered "official". It would appear to me that the President could pardon anyone who he ordered to perform an illegal act, and do it prospectively before conviction or even before a trial, just like Ford did for Nixon.
Yes. I had not considered the President's power to pardon when making my last comment. That makes this decision even more concerning....
New ruling makes it more difficult for regulators to make up laws that benefit their perspective. Y'all's thinking is clouded by trump derangement syndrome to see why this is potentially a good thing.
New ruling makes it more difficult for regulators to make up laws that benefit their perspective. Y'all's thinking is clouded by trump derangement syndrome to see why this is potentially a good thing.
If I thought is would do any good, I would post a line by line refutation of @Baseball_Fan long list of "fake news" above.
Clearly, as he has already decided that the falling major crime statistics in a lot of cities are due to intentional underreporting, any data I post will written off.
A response to two: The Iran nuclear deal was reducing Iran's uranium enrichment until Trump canceled it. The Department of Education completely failed to rein in predatory for profit colleges ( one owned by Betsy Devoes who tried to pass a law that would have dramatically increased it's profit) who saddled many poor students with ridiculous loans, promising unbelievable future salaries.
Doesn't our government have some responsibility for this failure?
In the distant past the GOP and right wing had a few "derangement syndromes" (Commies taking over the state department for example) but in general they were thoughtful and principled conservatives who could and would engage in intellectual debate. Not anymore.
The quotes from McConnell and others above show how far the GOP has sunk even in their support of the rule of law since January 6th.
I have relatives who suffer from "Wokeism" and who also refuse to listen to any facts or figures that indicate high taxes stifle growth, the government should not be eliminating ICEs or gas stoves etc. But the left has always felt government is the only thing that can accomplish anything, so you expect that I guess.
What is mind boggling is how quickly the GOP and conservatives have changed their minds about "Big Government" and are now willing to use it to clobber all of their opponents by banning books, freedom of choice, and enabling a man with no moral compass to do anything he wants etc.
@sma3….. generally agree with your comments but have to ask if you trust the government or big energy to deal with climate change and pollution? We can debate what the appropriate goal of government should be but the goal of corporations is to make more money. As investors we like that but as citizens not always.
MAGA too lazy to take advantage of this booming economy? prefer to get wealthy from trumps' shared kleptocracy? sure, just like last time...and not a dime for billionaires.
dont tell me the blue collar service economy isn't absolutely vertical.
I do not think Big Energy Big tobacco or big pharma ( or little for that matter) can be trusted to do anything other than maximize returns for 1) first their CEOS and top management ( if they put their shareholders first, most CEO's pay packages would be cut disastrously; most stock buybacks support the continued share issuance for options) and then maybe 2) shareholders
in an ideal world, CEOs would not be given pay packages thousands of times greater than their employees and would the suffer consequences of failure.
It is interesting how many people hate government regulation until their unbridled greed pushes the system to collapse and then it is Ok for the government to intervene and bail them out.
In health care, private equity has pushed the system close to collapse. Eight hospitals in MA are bankrupt with their Parent Stewart, and are being auctioned off in a week. Stewart was stiffing it’ s IV fluid and drug vendors, but paid $7,000,000 for espionage and spying on it’s critics.
Three Prospect Medical hospitals in CT are also close to closing because Prospect (CA pe) didnt bother to spend enough money on cyber security so they got hacked and shut down for 2 months. Do you think anyone at the top will loose money?
From Prez to the local Neighborhood Board, gov't is virtually ALL Dem where I live. The Dems have the Electoral College locked up here. CLOSED Primaries, too. Sucks. My dissenting vote will count for as much as a fart in the wind. I agree with Lewis Black: The Repugnants are the Party of BAD ideas; The Dems are the Party of NO ideas. And they can't get anything substantial accomplished here on Oahu. But it's the same, everywhere. Gov't stopped being accountable to PEOPLE a long time ago.
But they're not equally culpable. The Repugnants are without a soul, or character or integrity--- having sold it all, decades ago. The System itself is broken, but no one wants to do anything about THAT. Without a spirit of mutual trust and cooperation, it CAN'T work properly. And those days are gone. Pogo: "We have met the enemy, and he is Repugnants."
IMO neither candidate is fit for Presidential office. Why is it that there are no viable candidates on either side. Too much media scrutiny? Lies and half truths about the potential candidates? Apathy? Voters not thinking for themselves. Or maybe just the end of the way things have been.
We lived in CT, run as a one party state for decades. Budget deficits, huge government worker ( all unionized) pension and retiree health care deficits ( over $65,000 per person with a declining population). The only thing that saved them was iron clad "Guard rails" requiring a rainy day fund and any surplus to be put into deficit. Now Unions want to remove both.
Initially MA seemed much better with a moderate GOP Governor Baker ( who won by 33% margin in 2018) , although the dem controlled legislature is ranked as the least transparent in the US.
Baker stepped down. Trumpites took over GOP in 2022 and their candidate lost by 30%! so the Trumpites lost 60% of the electorate in 4 years!
Now we have a one party state. Taxes have doubled. New income tax surcharge 4% over $500,000. Mansion tax 2% on sales of over $1,000,000. People are talking about Taxachusetts again
@sma3 Yes, I was still there, under Baker. A reasonable, intelligent man. He is no Trumpster-ite, for sure. Greed is always and forever a bad thing, even if it's perfectly legal.
The fact that MA GOP accepted a 63% drop in their vote without wondering why and changing course speaks legions about the take over of the GOP
Of course my woke cousins on the West Coast think MA is now heaven because we have a lesbian governor. Attack me when I complain about 40% increase in taxes since we arrived and point out MBTA kills people and only billionaires can afford to live in Boston.
There is (almost as) much brainwashing in the deep woke parts of the country too.
Comments
I sure loved it way back when. I wonder how it holds up.
@bee Thank you for the reminder regarding Ms. Tolle and your ongoing posts of 'Wealthtrack'. I did previously review her Freedom fund.
I am now trying to sort through the rationale for and implications of the current ruling. Chief Justice Roberts downplays the dissenting justices' concerns: Robert's view is now the law of the land. If Trump is elected again this fall, we may in short order find out whether the dissenting justices' concerns are warranted. As @catch22 suggests, it will be up to the voters to decide whether we accept that risk.
This is from Heather Cox Richardson "Letters from an American" ( highly recomended)
Presidential immunity is a brand new doctrine. In February 2021, explaining away his vote to acquit Trump for inciting an insurrection, Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), who had also protected Trump in his first impeachment trial in 2019, said: “Trump is still liable for everything he did while he was in office…. We have a criminal justice system in this country. We have civil litigation, and former presidents are not immune from being held accountable by either one.”
But it was not just McConnell who thought that way. At his confirmation hearing in 2005, now–Chief Justice John Roberts said: “I believe that no one is above the law under our system and that includes the president. The president is fully bound by the law, the Constitution, and statutes.”
In his 2006 confirmation hearings, Samuel Alito said: “There is nothing that is more important for our republic than the rule of law. No person in this country, no matter how high or powerful, is above the law.”
And in 2018, Brett Kavanaugh told the Senate: “No one’s above the law in the United States, that’s a foundational principle…. We’re all equal before the law…. The foundation of our Constitution was that…the presidency would not be a monarchy…. [T]he president is not above the law, no one is above the law.”
This decision is mind boggling.
For example what is an "official act"? Can a President now order the military to shoot demonstrators on the spot claiming it is an official act? ( Trump wanted to remember?)
The military swears an oath to the Constitution and consequently can refuse "illegal" orders. What is an illegal order? Are all official acts, or acts the President says are "official" legal?
I think the investment consequences of this and "Chevron" are profound. Markets hate uncertainty. How can our times be more uncertain?
@junkster, I have read similar assessment from Citi’s Jabaz Mathai, who wrote “We think that yields will be at risk of continuing the move higher from this week on expectations of tax cuts and higher Treasury supply with a Trump White House, with any tempering effect dependent on economic data.”
This explains the recent rise of 10 years treasury yield despite the slowing economy and labor market over the last few months.
SCOTUS specifically listed the pardon as one of the Presidential powers that would be considered "official". It would appear to me that the President could pardon anyone who he ordered to perform an illegal act, and do it prospectively before conviction or even before a trial, just like Ford did for Nixon.
The only control over an authoritarian dictatorial President is now impeachment, and we saw how well that works
Trump has already "reposted" calls to have military tribunals try Liz Cheney and jail Biden, Schumer, Harris etc.
Anyone who says this is just posturing and"politics as usual" is deluding themselves. How can a country ( and markets) function with this level of vitriol and threats from a former (and potentially future) President?
However I have read that only 2/3s of people polled even know he was convicted in NYC. If your only news sources are Fox and TikTok...
Even though I have a fantastic view from my place, part of me is hoping the weather waters down the DC fireworks tomorrow night as a symbol of what our present reality (and future) might be.
So once again, the GQP, enabled by the SCOTUS, has turned the country backwards in time, as this recent meme explains....
Great Quantity Pus?
Globular Quickie Putz?
Giblet Quark Partition?
Biden's presidency has been a total and complete flop...everything from intentionally opening the border to illegals consisting of who knows whom, a disaster re foreign policy, wars, emboldening Iran, not negotiating effectively prior to Putin marching into Ukraine, inflation up the wazoo which continues, using lawfare against his political opponents, out of control crime (don't BS me with false statistics, reporting of serious crime has been downgraded for the optics and many blue cities don't even report to the FBI stats anymore), freebies on the taxpayers dime, reducing school debt for many who make decent monies, what about the plumbers who didn't go to school to chase skirts and drink beer and screw off for 5 years?...and watching the debate...who in their right mind would think he is capable of holding office right now, let alone in the future?
Clearly, as he has already decided that the falling major crime statistics in a lot of cities are due to intentional underreporting, any data I post will written off.
A response to two: The Iran nuclear deal was reducing Iran's uranium enrichment until Trump canceled it. The Department of Education completely failed to rein in predatory for profit colleges ( one owned by Betsy Devoes who tried to pass a law that would have dramatically increased it's profit) who saddled many poor students with ridiculous loans, promising unbelievable future salaries.
Doesn't our government have some responsibility for this failure?
In the distant past the GOP and right wing had a few "derangement syndromes" (Commies taking over the state department for example) but in general they were thoughtful and principled conservatives who could and would engage in intellectual debate. Not anymore.
The quotes from McConnell and others above show how far the GOP has sunk even in their support of the rule of law since January 6th.
I have relatives who suffer from "Wokeism" and who also refuse to listen to any facts or figures that indicate high taxes stifle growth, the government should not be eliminating ICEs or gas stoves etc. But the left has always felt government is the only thing that can accomplish anything, so you expect that I guess.
What is mind boggling is how quickly the GOP and conservatives have changed their minds about "Big Government" and are now willing to use it to clobber all of their opponents by banning books, freedom of choice, and enabling a man with no moral compass to do anything he wants etc.
sure, just like last time...and not a dime for billionaires.
dont tell me the blue collar service economy isn't absolutely vertical.
in an ideal world, CEOs would not be given pay packages thousands of times greater than their employees and would the suffer consequences of failure.
It is interesting how many people hate government regulation until their unbridled greed pushes the system to collapse and then it is Ok for the government to intervene and bail them out.
In health care, private equity has pushed the system close to collapse. Eight hospitals in MA are bankrupt with their Parent Stewart, and are being auctioned off in a week. Stewart was stiffing it’ s IV fluid and drug vendors, but paid $7,000,000 for espionage and spying on it’s critics.
Three Prospect Medical hospitals in CT are also close to closing because Prospect (CA pe) didnt bother to spend enough money on cyber security so they got hacked and shut down for 2 months. Do you think anyone at the top will loose money?
But they're not equally culpable. The Repugnants are without a soul, or character or integrity--- having sold it all, decades ago. The System itself is broken, but no one wants to do anything about THAT. Without a spirit of mutual trust and cooperation, it CAN'T work properly. And those days are gone. Pogo: "We have met the enemy, and he is Repugnants."
We lived in CT, run as a one party state for decades. Budget deficits, huge government worker ( all unionized) pension and retiree health care deficits ( over $65,000 per person with a declining population). The only thing that saved them was iron clad "Guard rails" requiring a rainy day fund and any surplus to be put into deficit. Now Unions want to remove both.
Initially MA seemed much better with a moderate GOP Governor Baker ( who won by 33% margin in 2018) , although the dem controlled legislature is ranked as the least transparent in the US.
Baker stepped down. Trumpites took over GOP in 2022 and their candidate lost by 30%! so the Trumpites lost 60% of the electorate in 4 years!
Now we have a one party state. Taxes have doubled. New income tax surcharge 4% over $500,000. Mansion tax 2% on sales of over $1,000,000. People are talking about Taxachusetts again
A one party government is bad no matter who it is
Yes, I was still there, under Baker. A reasonable, intelligent man. He is no Trumpster-ite, for sure. Greed is always and forever a bad thing, even if it's perfectly legal.
Of course my woke cousins on the West Coast think MA is now heaven because we have a lesbian governor. Attack me when I complain about 40% increase in taxes since we arrived and point out MBTA kills people and only billionaires can afford to live in Boston.
There is (almost as) much brainwashing in the deep woke parts of the country too.