Range-bound. That's where my portfolio is. 54 stocks, 37 bonds 7 cash.
Just thought I'd mention it. Getting impatient. Tonight, I'm sitting just off my OLD high-point, at the start of '22, before the interest rate hikes. Financials, Energy, Tech and Healthcare are where I'm most concentrated. In that order. Bonds have come up, yes. But not "so'z you'd notice."
I really don't want to pile into a horrifically crowded tech-trade right now. Arm, A.I., Facebook, Google, Amazon. And some of my stuff is holding WFC as a top holding. Makes me want to gag. Criminal suck-bag banksters. All of the huge banks are that way.
Interest rate cuts will help. Earnings have pretty much been coming in hot for 4Q '23. Still not much of a difference in MY portfolio. Stinky poopy. Meanwhile, tempus fugit.
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Comments
Up about 1.6% YTD with a similar to you combined 45% equity stake. I'd like to think 2024 will be decent. Good luck to all us old(er) guys.
I do own a significant amount of tech but these days it seems hard not to. Tech is everywhere and it's hard to avoid it whether it's in the financial sector, agriculture, industrials & manufacturing and so on and so forth. Nearly everyone and everything wants chips, semiconductors, software, automation. Interesting times.
The “Mag 7” seem to be sucking the oxygen out of markets. Deep value has gotten deeper. This could last a long time. No answers. I clipped the wings of 3 individual stocks this morning and opened small equally weighted positions in GLTR and SPDN with proceeds. The idea is to add some temporary stability until I can consider a better place for that entire 10% chunk of portfolio. I don’t give out returns - but suffice it to say the direction recently is circular in nature.Buffet Rule #1 - Don’t lose money.
QLTY - GMO U.S. Quality ETF - holds 5 in their top10 positions
CGDV - Capital Group Dividend Value ETF - holds one
JQUA - Jpmorgan US Quality Factor ETF - holds 5
And the discussion board honey
TCAF - T. Rowe Price Capital Apprec Eq ETF - holds 6
The increasingly narrow concentration of the upside part of the market is what most concerns me. How much longer can that go on? History suggests it will not be forever. And, then, what comes next? I am rooting for the inflation rate to continue to decline and for a soft landing for the economy in 2024. But I am not holding my breath!
SPY, RSP, EQAL COMPARED
Some cracks are happening to Tesla with disappointing earning and lower sale, especially in China where the Chinese EVs are much cheaper and they are coming to the West.
In light of the economic data on inflation, we think there are more opportunities on bonds, active managed ones.
I've been growing bonds. Our bonds are junk, in funds. Our balanced funds have bonds too, but not all junk. After PPI report and home starts this morning, nothing much about Mr. Market is happy. ET is up. TS is up, barely. We'll have a look at things at the end of the day.
If the market slides into recession, junk bonds will go with it. Given the low employment and strong growth, recession risk is declining in my opinion. PRWCX in your portfolio has about 10% bank loan/floating rate bond, thus I would not add more since you have high weighing with PRWCX. BL/FR tracks closely to FED rate and they fall accordingly when the FED cut rate some time this year. March 2022's drawdown of BL/FR were over 10% and eventually recovered after several months.
Some suggestions in the order of credit and duration risk:
1. OSTIX (Kaufman) and RSIIX (David Sherman). Short duration high yield/multi-sector bonds, experience managers. Our MFO contributor, @Devo, also mentioned them in his February commentary.
2. PIMIX/PONAX (Ivascyn and Murata) - flexible multi-sector mandates. In many way, the fund is even better than Bill Gross's PTTRX.
3. DODIX, consistent performance and team managed.
4. Treasury floating rate bond (USFR) and corporate floating rate (FLOT, FLRN, and FLTR) were suggested on this board. They have lower credit risk than junk corporate bonds and BL/FR while yielding 5-7%. These are lower risk, short duration bonds.
You can also profit from the eventual rate cut by lengthening the bond duration from short to intermediate term. I consider that is a low hanging fruit. Bond prices move in opposite direction of interest rates.
Am near fully invested mostly in alternative and balanced type funds. Some exposure to high yield, though those in the know say spreads are too tight. Bold enough to do it. Old enough to know better.
After a dividend just arrived, ET is the biggest single-stock position. 5% of total portfolio. Among funds, PRWCX remains very, VERY near 40% of total.
This year we are reducing stocks to the low 40% and repositioning to bonds and cash. My past experience on alternatives has not so successful (and they are expensive to own) so I stay with short duration bonds and cash equivalents. As we are approaching retirement, we are staying risk adverse.
Perhaps this tread should move to “other investing” topic since the discussion is moving to that direction.
Retirement? I’ve blown right past that! Now reside in “Never-Never-Land”.
Good luck
I also use the Fidelity tool for retirement planning analysis on several scenarios including expecting returns and inflation. We will do fine even at the worst scenario as long as we maintain our health. Glad to hear you are enjoying life.
Any Utilities in that 50 something stock portfolio? Most I own are yielding around 4% or better.
Ameren.
Xcel Energy.
Exelon
Those are the top 3. I can't find a Yoot that satisfies me in terms of just simple P/E.
For yield, I'm in junk. Own a still smallish regional bank, yielding 4.4%. (BHB.) Oil/gas midstream ET offers 8.9% yield. Pretty nuts. I love it.
And I’ve now deleted my earlier reference to the “Mag 7” in the interest of harmony. I can now better appreciate how Dudack felt after Rukeyser fired her.
Just looked at the market today. Folks will probably be talking about something else if this keeps up.