Mag 7 Holdings - How Much You Got?

stillers · February 6

This thread is intended to be a food for thought thread and an exploration of just how much we each have in Mag 7 stocks. I'm NOT trying to say anything positive or negative about my portfolio, or yours, if you post your data.

It's just an exercise in attempting to determine what I (maybe we all) have in Mag 7 stocks, if we think those (perhaps previously unknown) stock allocations are representative of the Total Market (see NOTE below), and if they are right for each of us individually based on our respective strategies and risk profiles.

So here we go...

I think we've all heard and read a bunch of times and places that virtually all fund investors have an allocation to the Mag 7 (formerly it was FAANG) and the prevailing notion seems to be that the respective allocations are possibly overweight because SO MANY many funds own them. I think I've always accepted that notion but had never carved out just how much I do have in them respectively. The results were somewhat surprising.

As background, I maintain a port of about a dozen OEFs and one recently added individual stock, GOOGL. The port is tilted to domestic LCG, about 70% Active/30% passive, with about 12% Foreign. The one other notable dashboard item is my LT FSELX holding, which currently has ~24% allocation to Mag 7 component NVDA. YMWV!

As the bogey for this discussion, here are the respective Mag 7 allocations in a Total Stock Market Index OEF, using for this thread VTSAX:
AAPL 6.1%
AMZN 3.0%
GOOGL 3.3%
META 1.7%
MSFT 6.0%
NVDA 2.5%
TSLA 1.4%
Total 24.0%

Here are my respective allocations (Note: I only have one OEF that does NOT have at least one Mag 7 holding), but I'm still about 3% UNDER the VTSAX Total:
AAPL 3.5%
AMZN 3.0%
GOOGL 3.8%
META 1.0%
MSFT 6.0%
NVDA 3.3%
TSLA 0.5%
Total 21.2%

Here are my respective allocations without my two outlier positions of FSELX and GOOGL, which in Total are notably LOWER than the VTSAX Total (EDITED per post by @msf - Thank You!):
AAPL 3.8%
AMZN 3.2%
GOOGL 2.8%
META 1.1%
MSFT 6.5%
NVDA 2.2%
TSLA 0.6%
Total 20.1%

NOTE: To make these comparisons apples-to-apples with VTSAX, an all stock OEF, the two lists of my Mag 7 allocations use the amount of stocks in my portfolio as the denominator. And IMO that makes a lot more sense as all of us have varying Stock/Bond/Cash allocations.

So the items of note from my first cursory review of this data:

MSFT is the one Mag 7 stock that many domestic OEFs (or, at least the ones I hold) provide the highest allocation, as much as 2x the next group.

It's likely that we all do get a representative allocation in the 2%-3% range, of AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL and NVDA via typical OEF holdings.

It's likely that we all wish we had a higher allocation to NVDA (which we have effectively increased to 3.3% from 2.1% by our FSELX holding).

It's likely that we all do NOT get anywhere near as much of META or TSLA through typical holdings.

For my port, my holding of GOOGL stock, and FSELX with its large NVDA allocation, are appropriate outlier holdings FOR ME, and bring my respective Mag 7 allocations more in line with my strategy and risk profile.

Here's hoping that others either know, or take the time to carve out their respective allocations, and share them here. Your findings may be surprising to you and just may cause this thread to be of some importance and perhaps even actionable.

sma3 · February 6

LLY apparently just passed TSLA in market Cap. Maybe add that?

stillers · February 6

Thanks for the suggestion. I had considered adding LLY prior to opening the thread given that but for now it's the Mag 7. So I decided to leave it at that for now. Anyone who thinks adding LLY is appropriate is free to do so.

Art · February 6

Since I have stocks only at this time it's easy. NVDA at 3%.

habsui · February 6

I put 2.4% of PV into AMZN,MSFT,GOOG over 11 years ago.
Only sold a little AMZN. So ... about 30%..

Art · February 6

Your crystall ball must have good MOJO.

hank · February 6

I stay as far away as I can from them.

Dot-com bubble of 1999-2000

“During the late 1990s, the values of internet-based stocks rose sharply. As a result, the technology-dominated NASDAQ Composite Index (NASDAQINDEX:^|XIC) surged from 1,000 points in 1995 to more than 5,000 in 2000. But in early 2001, the dot-com stock bubble started to burst. The NASDAQ peaked at 5,048.62 points on March 10. The index would go on to plummet by 76.81% until it reached a low of 1,139.90 points on Oct. 4, 2002. The primary cause of this crash was overvalued internet stocks. Many investors speculated that dot-com companies - even those without revenues - would one day become extremely profitable. As a result, they poured money into the sector, driving up the valuation of every company with "dot-com" in its name. The stock market bubble burst when the Federal Reserve Board tightened its monetary policy, constraining the flow of capital. The NASDAQ did not again rise to its 2001 peak until 15 years later”
Source

I have vivid memories of that period. Wasn’t pretty for those that had drunk the Kool Aid.

Most dangerous words in investing: “This time it’s different …”

Mark · February 6

"The NASDAQ did not again rise to its 2001 peak until 15 years later”

I wonder how many of the stocks in the NASDAQ at it's 2001 peak are in it today.

JD_co · February 6

Back in the late 1990s, most Internet stocks had no earnings and no viable plan on how to turn a profit. So it was really a unique situation where valuations didn't seem to matter. Traders just bid up any old garbage with ".com" attached to the name....at least, until 2001 arrived.

Tech stocks would have to shoot up a long way from here to get near that level of insanity again. That being said, we've had quite the short-term run and there seems to be general complacency in the markets.

Each time really is different.

Observant1 · February 7

JD_co said:
Back in the late 1990s, most Internet stocks had no earnings and no viable plan on how to turn a profit. So it was really a unique situation where valuations didn't seem to matter. Traders just bid up any old garbage with ".com" attached to the name....at least, until 2001 arrived.
[snip]

+1

hank · February 7

I won’t change your mind, and you won’t change mine, I simply shared an episode from years ago, Personally, I’m standing clear. Lots of other places to invest. It’s your money to do what you want with. A year ago folks were salivating all over about 5% money market funds following a 18% fall in the S&P and a drop of 33% on the NASDAQ the year before. I thought that the clamor for cash was a bit excessive as well.

msf · February 7

stillers said:

Here are my respective allocations (Note: I only have one OEF that does NOT have at least one Mag 7 holding), but I'm still about 3% UNDER the VTSAX Total:
AAPL 3.5%
AMZN 3.0%
GOOGL 3.8%
META 1.0%
MSFT 6.0%
NVDA 3.3%
TSLA 0.5%
Total 21.2%

Here are my respective allocations without my two outlier positions of FSELX and GOOGL, which in Total are notably LOWER than the VTSAX Total:
AAPL 3.5%
AMZN 3.0%
GOOGL 2.6%
META 1.0%
MSFT 6.0%
NVDA 2.1%
TSLA 0.5%
Total 18.8%

NOTE: To make these comparisons apples-to-apples with VTSAX, an all stock OEF, the two lists of my Mag 7 allocations use the amount of stocks in my portfolio as the denominator. And IMO that makes a lot more sense as all of us have varying Stock/Bond/Cash allocations.

To normalize after removing FSELX and GOOGL, shouldn't you reduce the denominator by the amount of stocks you've removed from your portfolio?

To illustrate with a simplistic example:

start with a portfolio of just two stocks:

AAPL $100 (50%)
GOOGL $100 (50%)
Total portfolio stock amount $200

remove GOOGL, leaving just AAPL:

AAPL $100 (100%)
Total portfolio stock amount $100

Reverse engineering your portfolio from the figures above, and noting that NVDA is 23.69% of FSELX, we see that ...

NVDA dropped from 3.3% to 2.1% of the original stock portfolio, a decline of 1.2%. So the part of NVDA coming from FSELX constituted 1.2% of the original portfolio. Since NVDA is 23.69% of FSELX, then FSELX constituted 1.2%/23.69% of the original portfolio. That's 5.07% of your total original stock portfolio. So taking out FSELX reduces that portfolio by 5.07%.

GOOGL dropped from 3.8% to 2.6%, a drop of 1.2%. So we should subtract another 1.2% of the stock portfolio. That's a total reduction of 6.27%.

Now, without FSELX and GOOGL, we can divide the new percentage figures by (1-6.27%) or 93.73%.

The total percentage of the new portfolio becomes 18.8%/93.73% = 20%. A modest improvement over 21.2%, but not a major shift. Notably, your OEFs ex-FSELX have a larger percentage of MSFT than does VTSAX.

Observant1 · February 7

Hank,

I also remember the dot-com bust and preceding period well.
Tech stocks were bid up to extremely high levels and exuberance was off the charts.
Many "investors" believed it was easy to mint money and some even quit their jobs to become day traders.
I worked in tech and it was difficult to resist the siren song of easy money being made by coworkers.

The main difference I see today is the Magnificent Seven have substantial earnings vs. many tech stocks of the dot-com era. Most of these are excellent companies (reserving judgement for AAPL and TSLA) but "trees don't grow to the sky." Their current popularity does give me pause.

Edit: FWIW, here's a recent M* article regarding the Magnificent Seven.
https://www.morningstar.com/markets/magnificent-seven-earnings-whats-ahead-biggest-players-stock-market?

hank · February 7

Thanks @Observant1

And I wasn’t predicting an immediate precipice. or drawing a direct parallel to 2000. Odds are these stocks will continue to move a lot higher before something breaks. Possibly for years. And it should be noted that even folks who bought tech funds at the top in 2000 made out just fine if they held on for the next 15 years.

Sven · February 7

@hank and @Observant1,
Without the Magnificent Seven, the 493 stocks in S&P500 are doing so so and the smaller caps are trailing considerably. So where are the opportunities today in this high valuation environment ?
How long can this goes on without a pullback? Here is a podcast from Schwab’s Kathy Jones and Liz Ann Sonders on current market environment. Comments reveal more on the quality of earnings.
https://schwab.com/learn/story/earnings-season-high-demand-corporate-bonds

For now we not adding more stocks but we maintain a healthy allocation to both stocks and bonds. Cash is building up as T bills mature.

stillers · February 7

msf said:

stillers said:

...
To normalize after removing FSELX and GOOGL, shouldn't you reduce the denominator by the amount of stocks you've removed from your portfolio?
...
Yep, my bad, You are correct and I EDITED my OP. Thank you!

Aside: Really though didn't need the long-winded correction with examples. Pretty simple and obvious mistake easily corrected and that coulda far more concisely been pointed out, and was, just by your opening question!

stillers · February 7

Thanks to @Art and @habsui for actually posting what I requested in the OP

THANK YOU @msf for catching my calc error! I EDITED the OP. I had a couple of different normalizing calc's on my spreadsheet and inadvertently/hastily posted the wrong data after hitting the back button to get my spreadsheet back to the actual data. No excuse as I should have caught it after posting the wrong data to the OP.
-----------------------------
As for the other posts...ugh

PLEASE, if you have ZERO Mag 7 allocations, just post ZERO.

If you don't want to post your allocations to them, then PLEASE don't post on this thread!

If you don't know or don't care what you have in them, then PLEASE don't post on this thread.

I'm trying to get data here. I'll give it a coupla more days. If we can't just do that^^^, I'll kindly ask that the thread be Closed or Deleted.

We can all read NASDAQ history and market commentary a lot of other places, like here,
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/can-all-of-the-magnificent-seven-stocks-maintain-their-dominance-this-year#:~:text=Goldman Sachs said, “The fate,for investing in the group.
which is very relevant to my OP and where I was hoping to get to, likely on another thread, AFTER we got some data.

Or, as they ^ ^ ^ seem to be popular topics, maybe start your own thread(s) to discuss? Feel free to use the linked article as a starting point for YOUR thread(s)!

Art · February 7

Thanks for saying what I thought.

stillers · February 7

Art said:
Thanks for saying what I thought.

Glad you appreciate it.

sma3 · February 7

about 3%
Mostly MSFT for years. No TSLA or META Both run by lunatics!

stillers · February 7

In case this thread survives as intended, I'll routinely recap what's been posted so as not to lose track of it.

FWIW, VERY surprising (to me at least) results so far!

(BOLD added.)

@stillers: 21.2% - See OP for breakdown

@Art: Since I have stocks only at this time it's easy. NVDA at 3%.

@habsui: I put 2.4% of PV into AMZN,MSFT,GOOG over 11 years ago.
Only sold a little AMZN. So ... about 30%.

@hank: I stay as far away as I can from them.

@sma3: about 3%...Mostly MSFT for years. No TSLA or META Both run by lunatics!

WABAC · February 7

Here is the taxable. I'm just looking at the top ten holdings on the M* quote page. I might get to the IRA later.

Ticker, portfolio weight, holdings

DIVO 4.97, Microsoft 5.56
CSGZX 1.02, Microsoft 5.10, Apple 5.07, Alphabet 4.75,
DODGX 12.74, Microsoft 2.62, Alphabet 2.54
FSCSX .98, Microsoft 23.37, Alphabet 2.79,
POSKX 3.31, Microsoft 2.93
TDV .95, Microsoft 2.9

Few here should be surprised that I won't be trying to work through the math on what this adds up to.

FWIW: As far as the Mag 7 goes, only Microsoft and Nvidia count as tech companies in my view. Whatever percentage of Amazon's biz comes from their cloud operations can be thrown in as well.

I look at Apple as a consumer product company, Tesla as a car company, and Alphabet and Meta as media deliverers of advertising. I am aware that's not the common view of these companies.

The only one I seek to minimize is Tesla. Who remembers the Duryea Brother's Motor Wagon Company? China is gearing up to bury Tesla. Apple is another with China problems.

I laugh at ESG funds that include Amazon, but I don't seek to minimize it.

stillers · February 8

@WABAC
Doing a quick look-see, I get these respective allocations for you based on your data.
I invite you or anyone to proof these calcs.

AAPL 0.05%
AMZN 0.00%
GOOGL 0.40%
META 0.00%
MSFT 1.02%
NVDA 0.00%
TSLA 0.00%
Total 1.47%

If you are OK with my calc's, I'll use them in the next summary.

Mark · February 9

Within fund holdings (I only looked at the top 10 and combined GOOG+GOOGL):

AAPL 1.18%
AMZN 0.32%
GOOGL 0.36%
META 0.25%
MSFT 1.21%
NVDA 0.59%
TSLA 0.018%
Total 4.09%

I also own shares of AAPL (6.1% of total portfolio value) and GOOGL (3.1%) outright.
QLTY owns 5 of these stocks in their top 10. JQUA also owns 5 and CGDV owns one.

BenWP · February 9

Turns out just about every one of my LC funds holds some Mag 7, even CGDV. My biggest single-fund holding, MOAT, has managed to stay ahead of its bogey without loading up on the usual suspects, although it does have just less than 9% allocated to them. Van Eck blog entry touting LT and ST performance is linked here:
http://tinyurl.com/452emtac

WABAC · February 9

stillers said:
@WABAC
Doing a quick look-see, I get these respective allocations for you based on your data.
I invite you or anyone to proof these calcs.

AAPL 0.05%
AMZN 0.00%
GOOGL 0.40%
META 0.00%
MSFT 1.02%
NVDA 0.00%
TSLA 0.00%
Total 1.47%

If you are OK with my calc's, I'll use them in the next summary.

I'm in no position to quibble.

My allotment will be going up by the end of the month as I eye adding QLTY, FMIL, and AMAGX to the taxable. I could use some genuine growth for that portfolio. And, unlike the IRA, I don't feel a need to simplify it at this time.

Roy · February 9

Curious myself, so here goes. Since TRAIX and PRCFX make up 95% of our portfolio I'll just list the Mag 7 percentage from M* as of 12/31/23 for TRAIX, which while not perfect, will be pretty close.

EDIT: I was able to come up with more accurate figures than my original post using M* Stock Intersection Tool as of 12/31/23.

AAPL -1.88%
AMZN - 2.03%
GOOGL - 2.65%
META - 1.02%
MSFT - 4.41%
NVDA - 1.28%
TSLA - 0.00%
LLY - .63%, just for kicks.

13.9%, less than I expected, though Giroux did state recently they had trimmed some of the hot stocks.

stillers · February 11

UPDATE_2
In case this thread survives as intended, I'll routinely recap what's been posted so as not to lose track of it.

FWIW, Mag 7 allocations continue to be VERY surprising (to me at least) so far!

Thanks to all who have reported. And thanks to all who have kept this thread on topic.

See also this similar thread that was started on the Fido Forum (invitation only still?) a coupla days after this MFO thread. Far different reporting there but OP is asking for technology % not Mag 7!
https://www.fidelityinvestorcommunity.com/t5/Market-Sector-Outlook/What-Percentage-of-Your-Portfolio-is-in-Technology-Did-You/m-p/399050#M40359

(BOLD added.)

@stillers:
AAPL 3.5%
AMZN 3.0%
GOOGL 3.8%
META 1.0%
MSFT 6.0%
NVDA 3.3%
TSLA 0.5%
Total 21.2%

@Art: Since I have stocks only at this time it's easy. NVDA at 3%.

@habsui: I put 2.4% of PV into AMZN,MSFT,GOOG over 11 years ago.
Only sold a little AMZN. So ... about 30%.

@hank: I stay as far away as I can from them.

@sma3: about 3%...Mostly MSFT for years. No TSLA or META Both run by lunatics!

@WABAC (as calc'd by me and OK'd by @WABAC):
AAPL 0.05%
AMZN 0.00%
GOOGL 0.40%
META 0.00%
MSFT 1.02%
NVDA 0.00%
TSLA 0.00%
Total 1.47%

@Mark
AAPL 1.18%
AMZN 0.32%
GOOGL 0.36%
META 0.25%
MSFT 1.21%
NVDA 0.59%
TSLA 0.018%
Total 4.09%
I also own shares of AAPL (6.1% of total portfolio value) and GOOGL (3.1%) outright.

@Roy
AAPL -1.88%
AMZN - 2.03%
GOOGL - 2.65%
META - 1.02%
MSFT - 4.41%
NVDA - 1.28%
TSLA - 0.00%
LLY - .63%, just for kicks.
13.9%, less than I expected, though Giroux did state recently they had trimmed some of the hot stocks.

stillers · February 26

Last call for posters to report your Mag 7 allocations.

After which, I hope to discuss those with the posters who were kind enough to share.

And, as an FYI, anyone interested in adding Mag 7 exposure to your port:

ETF: MAGS, all Mag 7, all the time! Or, as Jolt Cola used to advertise, "All the taste and twice the sugar!" or something like that!

OEF: VIGAX is the fund I've found (so far) with the highest (last I checked) Mag 7 allocation at ~51.2%

catch22 · February 26

We've been holding this etf for reasons of quality growth, and add with dollar cost averaging. A big chunk of Mag 7. This etf doesn't release holdings information on a daily basis, so I don't know what is being held today.

FBCG Top holdings (Fido Blue Chip Growth, active etf)
Top 10 holdings AS OF Dec-31-2023
59.72%
of 159 total
  
MSFT Microsoft Corp 10.15%
NVDA NVIDIA Corp 9.81%
AAPL Apple Inc 9.63%
AMZN Amazon.com Inc 9.10%
GOOGL Alphabet Inc Class A 6.64%
META Meta Platforms Inc Class A 4.99%
UBER Uber Technologies Inc 2.62%
LLY Eli Lilly and Co 2.34%
NFLX Netflix Inc 2.22%
SNAP Snap Inc Class A 2.21%

PRESSmUP · February 26

@catch22 ...which is similar to SCHG

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