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Laszlo Birinyi, Leading Stock Picker and Market Forecaster, Dies at 79
Many of us old timers remember Mr Birinyi fondly. Sorry to hear about his passing. The article @Mark linked is must read, most especially the very last paragraph.
His study of market history taught him, he said, that long bull markets have four stages: reluctance, consolidation, grudging acceptance and exuberance. This last period is marked by fearless behavior, the entry into the market of unskilled day traders and, ominously, the likelihood of a coming crash.
This led Mr. Birinyi to the paradoxical conclusion that gloomy commentary by market watchers was actually encouraging — before the exuberance stage had taken hold — whereas sunny market reports signified danger.
“So you won’t think the market is going down till everybody thinks it’s going up,” Mr. Rukeyser remarked to Mr. Birinyi on an episode of “Wall Street Week” in 1996.
Comments
Origin unknown.
Don't think I've ever seen that one before.