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Just one day, but more "red" than I've seen for awhile.....
Hi MikeM, No, I did not.....thank you. I still remember seeing them on a small black and white TV. As a child, he was my favorite......always wanting to help. I used to laugh so hard I'd cry. Those were the days...so simple and sweet. On another note, your Bills look awesome. Hope they go all the way! God bless the Pudd
Let it go down, please. The more, the better...for me. What I find funny is when someone "knows" the reason why it went down. So many predictions by so many "experts" have been wrong(link). So why did stocks go down? The only true reason is because there are more sellers than buyers.
Me, me, me. Some things never change do they?
When you are a good trader, you don't care what markets are doing and why I lost so little today.
Let it go down, please. The more, the better...for me. What I find funny is when someone "knows" the reason why it went down. So many predictions by so many "experts" have been wrong(link). So why did stocks go down? The only true reason is because there are more sellers than buyers.
Me, me, me. Some things never change do they?
When you are a good trader, you don't care what markets are doing and why I lost so little today.
Here is your big chance FD, you lost little you say, OK, tell us how you are positioned and when you change your allocation, just this once.
I watch the red. It's no fun. So far in '22, I'm not reacting. Sitting tight. I'm already positioned the way I want to be. The long-term bet is statistically better than any single day's loss. My losses are at least a bit mitigated because I'm overweight bonds. But the bonds are suffering with rising rates. Will it all come out in the wash? I expect so. I'm not looking to jump on trends. Even my bonds are spread-out into HY, FR, global, domestic, gov't, munis.....
Hi Crash, I remember that line. He said many times and I loved it. Glad to see you're in bonds. I forget.....where do you live now? Silly me. Want to say Hawaii for some reason. I don't get here much anymore, so I forget. Please forgive me.
Hank and Wxman123, Great posts! He usually gets skinny after such posts, i.e., FD. I'm sure God will justify the silence once he has time. And awe you with the plan he uses
Everything equity is being thrown to the trash bin; quality or not. Enough of this and the majority of equity becomes called "value" stocks. Still too much money waiting to buy, IMHO.
Watching.....
The "red" remark is relative to the first set of data for global markets, as one scrolls down. The clock icon at the right edge indicates full open trading. One will also see blinking of a line, as market numbers change.
Everything equity is being thrown to the trash bin; quality or not. Enough of this and the majority of equity becomes called "value" stocks. Still too much money waiting to buy, IMHO.
Watching.....
The "red" remark is relative to the first set of data for global markets, as one scrolls down. The clock icon at the right edge indicates full open trading. One will also see blinking of a line, as market numbers change.
Orderly selling thus far, imho. Waiting for the panic selling next before we hit a bottom. We might get the former today/this week.
Relatedly, there is some serious stuff going on in crypto-land. Between corporate layoffs, freezes, rate downgrades, looming regulation, and stuff like what Celsius dropped on its customers this morning ….. it’s probably a very good time to stand aside for a bit in that 'sector.'
As I look at the cross-market chaos shaping up around the world today (and the world generally these days) I’m reminded of that great saying by Dr. Sidney Freeman from MASH: “ladies and gentlemen, take it from me…pull down your pants and slide on the ice.”
"Most people" think that capitulation will not occur until VIX hits 40.
34 today
I would assume also we have to see oil and food costs at least stabilize, and not keep going up. Friday's CPI ex food and energy, I think, was down a tad. This may reflect the weakening sales, other than food and energy, as people put more in their gas tanks
The VIX gets tossed around a lot by media pundits. One noted recently that there won’t be a correction “while the VIX is stuck in the mid 20s”. I suspect that it is widely misunderstood. ISTM it is tied to the prices being paid to purchase protective “puts” farther out on stocks. Lately, fear has been low. So the “return” on those puts on down days isn’t great. But ISTM the cost of such puts must also be relatively cheap?
Barron’s this week quoted the manager of GATEX (which I own). He seemed to be dismayed the fund hasn’t benefitted more from its put options recently. I gather that ties in with what I wrote above?
BTW - As I’ve noted before, I use a 5% allocation to TAIL as a hedging tool. Mediocre results so far this year. Today it jumped over 2% early on, but has pulled back some. Also - My understanding is: The managers run the fund so that big payoffs occur under extreme market sell offs. So, a 1-2% drubbing won’t pay off much. But a 15% 2 day slide would pay off very well?
@LewisBraham recently speculated TAIL is being hampered by the longer dated bonds it uses. I agree that that’s part of the problem to date and appreciated his insight.
@hank, VIX is based on all near-term options (calls and puts).
You may be thinking of SKEW (that is in the bottom panels of my previous chart link and is EOD only) that is based on relative pricing of puts vs calls - it is high when puts are more expensive, and they are not right now.
High VIX and low/moderate SKEW is a condition that is more likely at/near bottoms.
Comments
No, I did not.....thank you. I still remember seeing them on a small black and white TV. As a child, he was my favorite......always wanting to help. I used to laugh so hard I'd cry. Those were the days...so simple and sweet. On another note, your Bills look awesome. Hope they go all the way!
God bless
the Pudd
I'm with you on the 3 stooges. Also my childhood tv watching. Curly was my favorite. Always felt bad when Moe would put him down.
Here is your big chance FD, you lost little you say, OK, tell us how you are positioned and when you change your allocation, just this once.
I remember that line. He said many times and I loved it. Glad to see you're in bonds. I forget.....where do you live now? Silly me. Want to say Hawaii for some reason. I don't get here much anymore, so I forget. Please forgive me.
Hank and Wxman123,
Great posts! He usually gets skinny after such posts, i.e., FD. I'm sure God will justify the silence once he has time. And awe you with the plan he uses
God bless
the Pudd
Everything equity is being thrown to the trash bin; quality or not. Enough of this and the majority of equity becomes called "value" stocks. Still too much money waiting to buy, IMHO.
Watching.....
The "red" remark is relative to the first set of data for global markets, as one scrolls down. The clock icon at the right edge indicates full open trading. One will also see blinking of a line, as market numbers change.
Global Futures and Active/Open Markets
NOTE: I'll add FINVIZ, mixed markets.
AND Global etf's, multi-sectors, active real time changes through a trading day.
Remain curious,
Catch
Global Futures and Active/Open Markets
NOTE: I'll add FINVIZ, mixed markets.
I'll know the outcomes after 7 hours of pillow time.
Remain curious,
Catch
Might be helpful to consolidate the 2 “red” threads? Here’s a a more recent one..
Likely to remain the color of the day for a while.
Relatedly, there is some serious stuff going on in crypto-land. Between corporate layoffs, freezes, rate downgrades, looming regulation, and stuff like what Celsius dropped on its customers this morning ….. it’s probably a very good time to stand aside for a bit in that 'sector.'
As I look at the cross-market chaos shaping up around the world today (and the world generally these days) I’m reminded of that great saying by Dr. Sidney Freeman from MASH: “ladies and gentlemen, take it from me…pull down your pants and slide on the ice.”
All those investing genious types who scoffed at grantham etc warnings are kinda quiet now, no?
Shit's getting real, no?
Best
Baseball Fan
34 today
I would assume also we have to see oil and food costs at least stabilize, and not keep going up. Friday's CPI ex food and energy, I think, was down a tad. This may reflect the weakening sales, other than food and energy, as people put more in their gas tanks
Nasdaq 100 VXN touched 40 today (YTD hi was 44).
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p67687948034
Barron’s this week quoted the manager of GATEX (which I own). He seemed to be dismayed the fund hasn’t benefitted more from its put options recently. I gather that ties in with what I wrote above?
@yogibearbull - Kindly fill in some blanks.
BTW - As I’ve noted before, I use a 5% allocation to TAIL as a hedging tool. Mediocre results so far this year. Today it jumped over 2% early on, but has pulled back some. Also - My understanding is: The managers run the fund so that big payoffs occur under extreme market sell offs. So, a 1-2% drubbing won’t pay off much. But a 15% 2 day slide would pay off very well?
@LewisBraham recently speculated TAIL is being hampered by the longer dated bonds it uses. I agree that that’s part of the problem to date and appreciated his insight.
You may be thinking of SKEW (that is in the bottom panels of my previous chart link and is EOD only) that is based on relative pricing of puts vs calls - it is high when puts are more expensive, and they are not right now.
High VIX and low/moderate SKEW is a condition that is more likely at/near bottoms.
https://www.investing.com/indices/indices-futures
https://finviz.com/futures.ashx
Edit: except Cryptos