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2022 YTD Damage

13

Comments

  • edited April 28
    MikeM said:

    @hank, @BenWP, just to clarify, DBA (Invesco DB Agriculture) does not hold any corporate stocks, like Deere for instance. It invests in commodity futures. It follows a futures index. So for that, it won't necessarily follow the stock market like a stock fund would. An ETF like MOO invests in stocks, in companies that have some link to agriculture or basically food.

    No intention to suggest otherwise Mike. I thought we were talking about profiting from / protecting against food inflation. DBA is a “direct route”. Owning companies that service the ag sector (like Deere and Agrium) is another way to harvest some profits. Then there’s also the agricultural real estate market to consider. As with buying equities, the best time to load up on things like this is when they are down and not attracting a lot of investment money.

    I’m not qualified to speak about the risks in trading commodities futures. The fact that oil was able to fall to something like negative $30 for a short time and to hover under $40 much longer might suggest some caution dealing in them. You are correct that commodities futures markets “won't necessarily follow the stock market ”. Often times they do however.

    Re DBA - The fund has had only one profitable year over the past 10 starting with 2021 and working back. Without adding up the numbers, it looks like you would have lost your shirt (or about 60% of it) over that time.

    https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DBA/performance/
  • edited April 28
    Brent futures never went negative. They are settled in cash.

    WTI (light/sweet crude) futures did go negative in 2020. They are settled in physical oil. Cushing, OK ran out of storage. Buyers near the furures contract expiry were stuck with physical oil that they didn't know what to do with. Exchange wasn't monitoring positions well. New procedures should avoid repeat of that fiasco, hopefully.
  • edited April 28
    BTW, Q1 GDP growth was NEGATIVE. Either the market hasn't had time to grasp that, or it is celebrating.

    Now Q2 GDP growth will likely be negative too.

    That is spelled RECESSION.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/28/us-q1-gdp-growth.html
  • edited April 28
    Oil did not go “negative” in 2020.. True. If you heat with oil, payment in cash was still expected. However, I don’t think @MikeM is talking about buying the food itself and storing it somewhere which would assure he could resell it anytime. He’s talking about a fund (DBA) that buys futures contracts for delivery of that food at some future date. In the futures markets, it is possible for prices to rise and fall precipitously irregardless of retail pricing.
  • edited April 28
    Would consumer staples sector be more connected to food prices? Below is a link to VDC and its portfolio. Noted not all of them are considered “food”, i.e. tobacco.
    https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/portfolio/vdc
  • edited April 28
    .....Just in general, re: 2022 damage: it's a crazy, volatile year! Nice to see TODAY, but there's a downside coming, always, and it 's seldom been mild, in '22 so far. I'm watching Natgas... Since uncle Vladimir the pus-licker shut off Poland and Bulgaria. Not his biggest markets, of course. He's sending a signal. Maybe it will finally prompt the EU to stop their typical dithering and actually coalesce in order to DECIDE about something, and then (God forbid!) DO it! Creation of the EU is a smart thing, rather than go to war every 20-30 years against each other. But the bureaucracy is insane.
  • With SP500 VIX around 30 and Nasdaq-100 VXN around 35.5, daily volatilities (with divisor of about 19) are +/- 1.6% for SP500 and +/- 1.9% for Nasdaq-100. That is what we are seeing with huge intraday and daily moves.
  • edited April 29
    EMQQ which tracks the EM Markets iis (was) up 7.7 % from yesterday. Welcome news for some of us.
    (But is falling) And Japan was very strong overnight.

    Access EMQQ price change HERE
  • indeed.
  • edited April 29
    Not everything is down. ARKK is up 1.5% around noon Friday despite the selloff in the NASDAQ. If the latter isn’t already in bear territory, it ought to be by day’s end. By contrast, yesterday ARKK was down over 6% midday while at the same time the Dow was up 600-700 points.

    I’ve been noticing wider disparities among equity classes than in recent past. Diversification appears to be paying off. Quite often now the ARKK type stocks run contrary to the broader indexes. Some of that might relate to the ongoing game being played in that oversold segment by short sellers. Also, some foreign markets seem more detached from U.S. indexes than in the past, as well as gold which is up today. It continues to look like EM will have a very good day, though some funds may employ FVP - reducing the gain.
  • edited April 29
    That was UGLY!

    Free Stockcharts has a limit of 5 charts to display. So, the 2nd link replaces small-cap R2000 with DJ Utilities and those who recently chased the uncharacteristic rally in utilities also got hurt. Reset times to YTD if the links default to 1-yr later.

    Now, welcome the bad seasonality period, May 1 - October 31? How?

    https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=$SPX&compare=$COMPQ,$INDU,$TRAN,IWM&id=p07024191480

    https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=$SPX&compare=$COMPQ,$INDU,$TRAN,$UTIL&id=p82374835101
  • Just looked at the portfolio. Dark. Darker than a steer's tuchus on a moonless night.
    BEST was PRFRX at -0.11%. ...... WORST: PRISX at - 2.98%. Crud, I was just WRONG about buying financials---- or, as they say--- "just way too early." That sounds better. Allows me to "save face."
  • Indexes are approaching May low test levels (except R2000/IWM that is still well above).
    https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=$SPX&compare=$COMPQ,$INDU,$TRAN,IWM&id=p07577548093
  • edited June 10
    Week-end here. 10th June, 2022:
    Still dark. Even darker. Like a picture of a baboon in a closet at midnight.
    Down by -14.31%. YTD.

    Worst laggards:
    PRISX
    PRWCX
    BRUFX
    TUHYX
    BHB Bar Harbor Bank

    Not so very awful:
    PRNEX
    TRAMX
    ET Energy Transfer LP
    RGR Sturm Ruger (But for the first time after buying-in, it's underwater, by just a fraction.)



  • edited June 11
    Mine portfolio -19%

    Did slowly dip in past few wks

    Hope get good prices since everything cheap

    Hoped uptrends bullish soon (maybe in few wks /q4 - hard to say)

    Fyi crypto downed over weekend

    They speculate Sp500 may finish ~>4350s by month end

    Keep trucking
  • edited June 11
    I'm roughly down about 8% across my accounts as of this weekend. I can't complain.

    I'm mainly in dividend paying value stocks with *very* little exposure to 'growth' or tech via individual holdings ... which have held up much better than I'd expected, tbh.
  • YTD I am down .25%. Portfolio is 35% cash/bonds, 12 individual stocks and 11 MF's. Energy stocks biggest contributor to breaking even at 10% of portfolio.
  • @Art. Thanks for letting us know.
  • edited June 12
    Can’t complain. Doing better than deserve. Buffett threw me a plum when he bid for Allegheny. I sold the same day for a 25% overnight gain. It only represented about 5% of portfolio - but certainly helped.

    I finally aborted a small hold in GLDB. To some extent it was a victim of circumstances being long corporate bonds at precisely the wrong time. And, I hung on to a small slice of DKNG hoping for a buy-out. But, these are not fortuitous times for M&A with rates having spiked so much. Waters have calmed. I jettisoned that position 2 weeks ago for a small loss.

    I did a lot of buying last week adding to existing positions - including a regional bank stock (off 35% from peak), an insurer and a major food distributor. Never one to hold cash, it’s minimal at 3-5%. GNMA (ETF) is being used as a replacement for cash also in small quantity. I picked it up after rates hit 3% - so it’s held up well since buying. Where is the stability? Large slices of PRIHX, PRPFX, ABRZX, BAMBX. These too have been dinged, but not as much as the rest. Winners? RIO and GLFOX. Possibly a couple others.
  • +0.14% ytd, in other words, flat. Big losses in January; caught back up to zero after revamping the port primarily to managed futures and cash. Right now 25% alt and allocation, mainly managed futures; 20% hold-to-maturity debt; and 55% cash.
  • Interesting positioning @ AndyJ

    Real question and Andy addressed it how are you gonna play it going forward?

    Inflation ain't going away. Too much deglobalization and greenies decarbonization plus incompetent White House and fed

    Still like 3 month tbills BLNDX and pvcmx. Bigly in cash, CD, and TBills

    Good luck, we're gonna need it.

    Baseball fan

  • PVCMX: No, I gotta have some kinda YIELD on stuff, particularly now, with everything in the shitter. My single stocks are doing better than my funds, these days. But that could change very quickly. I say that with RGR in mind. Too many crazy wet orifices running around with firearms. But that fact has still not killed the gun-making industry..... People are more important than any 2nd Amendment. It shouldn't be easier to buy an AK-47 than to go after rainbow trout. Geniuses in the Congress. I reject religious fundamentalism. Same with Constitutional fundamentalism. You gotta put your brain in neutral to be able to be one or the other.
  • @crash. Hmm, I look at pvcmx as a waiting game and a play on the future. Fund managers have proven in the past they know where to find value after a schmeissing in the markets. No guarantees but I like them in this environment. Up 2 better then down 20 and very likely down 40 the in a market close to you

    Respect your opinion disagree with you regarding constitution agree need much tighter gun control laws, stop and frisk, lock em up more. Fed up with the criminal element causing the crime and destroying our cities. Good riddance to the Marxist in San Francisco yeah that guy. Screw him

    Best regards

    Baseball fan
  • edited June 12
    Fools wade in …

    ISTM that sometimes rights guaranteed by the Constitution conflict with each other. “We the people“ and our legislators and courts need to sort that all out - establish priorities. Before the 2nd Amendment, in both actual placement and in time, is language guaranteeing people the right to life. With 18 year old kids, psychologically disturbed or angry individuals, and every Tom, Dick & Harry running around with military grade weapons capable of firing off 50 or 100 rounds in quick order there can be no guarantee of “life.” So those rights - both guaranteed in the Constitution - are in conflict and need to be resolved by “We the people.” Hell, you wouldn’t hire or trust some of these uneducated idiots to take care of your dog while away on vacation or unclog the toilet in your home. Yet, you allow the fools to go out and buy extremely potent armament. Reason needs to prevail. I taught high school for 29 years. My heart bleeds at the thought of those wonderful innocent children having their brains and guts blown away. These were your future doctors, clergymen, scientists, generals, great artists and thinkers of every type - all blown away in an hour’s time. And - they were somebody’s precious kids and grandchildren.

    Here’s the Preamble to the U.S. Constitution: “We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America.”
  • Down 6.2% YTD, seems like more bleeding today.
  • edited June 13
    Nearing -11% at Chuck's place. VG, less than half that.
  • edited June 13
    Crash said:

    +1, @hank.

    Ditto.
  • That was UGLY!

    https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=$SPX&compare=$COMPQ,$INDU,$TRAN,IWM&id=p30172872605

    Substituting DJ Utilities for DJ Transports. Utilities have been better, but not if one added to them in April.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=$SPX&compare=$COMPQ,$INDU,$UTIL,IWM&id=p05603484015
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