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2022 YTD Damage

edited February 13 in Other Investing
Current YTD status. Another leg down? January low retest coming? Something else?
(similar charts are now buried in another thread but I am putting this in a new thread).
Dynamic link (may have to use YTD) https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=$SPX&compare=$COMPQ,$INDU,$TRAN,IWM&id=p74767152289

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Comments

  • edited February 13
    Just another way to think about YTD performance...several time frames to choose from....

    image

    Sector Tracker
  • True, YTD is somewhat arbitrary but has been interesting so far in 2022.

    I also look at other periods, especially the Stockcharts panels for multiple timeframes. Below is one for S&P sector ETFs for 6 months (other clickable periods are 2 and 12 months).
    https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$SPX,XLY,XLC,XLK,XLI,XLB,XLE,XLP,XLV,XLU,XLF,XLRE|C|0.
  • Very nice. The market moves fast from last year. Not sure hiking rate alone will solve the issues.
  • edited February 13
    I was searching for something like @davfor’s chart last evening. Finally dawned on me this morning that the free Bloomberg ipad app lists YTD performance of many markets - domestic and international. Stuff like that helps me get my head around where we’ve been. Those aren’t particularly large drops for those of us who lived through 2008 or the one-day drop in the Dow of around 25% in 1987.

    I’ve been thinking a lot that the “go to” areas of the U.S. market represented by S&P, NASDAQ etc. might well be overvalued but that there may be pockets of good value in some foreign markets and individual stocks here at home. Just a guess. No particular expertise.
  • hank said:

    Nice

    Truth. :)

  • Thanks @davfor and @yogibearbull for the links. I've tossed a few more into the pot again.

    Global etf's. One may sort returns in the columns when selecting the column header, and clicking/taping to place negative or positive return percentages at the top of the column. (a repeat link, but with the sorting note)

    Another FINVIZ view set for ONE day performance, but you may select other time frames at the top right edge. (a repeat site, but using the performance page)

    AND if you really have a lot of spare time.....this is the FINVIZ news list. This list is dynamic and the oldest entries will eventually leave the list.
  • hank said:

    I was searching for something like @davfor’s chart last evening. Finally dawned on me this morning that the free Bloomberg ipad app lists YTD performance of many markets - domestic and international. Stuff like that helps me get my head around where we’ve been. Those aren’t particularly large drops for those of us who lived through 2008 or the one-day drop in the Dow of around 25% in 1987.

    I’ve been thinking a lot that the “go to” areas of the U.S. market represented by S&P, NASDAQ etc. might well be overvalued but that there may be pockets of good value in some foreign markets and individual stocks here at home. Just a guess. No particular expertise.

    -17% discount...
    https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xnas/ssb/quote

    -34% discount...
    https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xnys/ebr/quote

    This page might prove to be handy. i chose EGYPT on a lark. (EGX 30)
    https://www.egx.com.eg/en/Indices.aspx
  • edited February 13
    Thanks @Crash / I wasn’t even aware M* provided that kind of analytics on individual stocks. ISTM they made their mark evaluating & rating mutual funds.
  • But mind you: Morningstar's estimate of fair value is very different from "Simply Wall Street" and surely others, too.
    https://simplywall.st/dashboard
  • edited February 14
    Somewhat to the side of the topic, but in the eternal debate b/w active management and rolling your own, I see that any combo of VONG half or more (2/3, 3/4) with FBND the rest, outperforms easily my recent love interests CBALX and FMSDX over 3y and 5y.
    Go, bull.

    However, if the future is anything like the recent past (I know, I know), for 1y, 6m, 3m and ytd, those two mutual funds do notably better (they are not even -4% ytd).

    Apples to pears, sort of, but I thought of interest. Just fyi.

    (Assuming my calcs are good.)
  • A death-cross formation is imminent in days (2-3?) for Nasdaq Comp, and in weeks (2?) for Nasdaq-100/QQQ and R1000-gr/VUG. This dreadful name is when the 50-dMA crosses the 200-dMA on the downside. Other major indexes are not showing this formation.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p04185122627

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p23385139800

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VUG&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p59404796095
  • edited February 15
    Monday was a bit curious in that most of the defensive funds I track (about a half dozen) failed to hold water in the face of a rather broad based market selloff. HSGFX managed to loose .44%.
    CCOR lost 1,50%. SWAN down .88% And DRSK off about .30%.

    Gold and miners have been hot for 2-3 days. The futures tonight have gold approaching $1900, which would be close to a 1 year high.

    Don’t know what happened to the yield curve today, but it looks like the shorter duration stuff got hit harder than farther out.
  • TRAMX = UP by a penny today. All my other stuff was down--- again.
  • GPANX BIVRX up and PFIX which I don't own up 3.4%, around 20% for year. I'll start tiny positions in PFIX and PDBC tomorrow and add to BIVRX, which will mark the top for those 3 funds! Took profits in CVSIX .
  • edited February 15
    @yogibearbull,

    I'm not very familiar with technical analysis.
    How reliable of an indicator is the 50-Day / 200-Day SMA death cross?
    Do you know if there were death cross patterns for the S&P 500 prior to sell-offs in 2000 - 2002, 2008, 2018 Q4, and 2020 Q1?
    Thank you!
  • @hank, treasury yield-curve continued to flatten. As easy read is from 2Y-10Y spread,
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$UST10Y-$UST2Y&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p66195125656

    @Observant1, when faster MA (50-dMA) crosses slower 200-dMA (200-dMA), that may point to trend reversal. Death-cross is likely to happen for Nasdaq Comp first and there WILL be lot of news on this when it happens - I am just pointing to it earlier. Weeks is long time for the markets, so one will have to check back on Nasdaq-100/QQQ later.
  • I like this thread.
    Enjoying the weather, derf
  • @davfor,

    Interesting:

    1 yr - Still lot of green

    5 yr - Energy still negative

    Thanks for the link.
  • edited February 15
    @bee you are welcome and yes about 1 yr. The widespread red is a relatively short term event so far. I find it useful to click through the timeframes of this simple chart periodically. About energy, yes, over 5 years it is still in the red. For a few years, energy was considered a poor investment due to the surge in alternative energy investments and the thinking the transition timeframe to alternatives would likely be fairly short. Now, there seems to be some serious thinking that the transition to renewables will likely occur over an extended enough time frame that the traditional energy sector will remain worthy of investment for at least "several" more years. (I know I still own gas powered cars and my primary house still uses natural gas for heat. Also, I still plan to to take some trips via air once my covid concerns have abated and lots of stuff in my house contains "plastic".) I am presently comfortable having about 10% of my investments in that sector.
  • edited February 15
    I'm a proponent of clean energy but oil and gas will still be needed in the near future.
    You're absolutely correct that some people are/were overly optimistic regarding the
    timeframe needed for the transition to clean energy.
  • I'm a proponent of clean energy but oil and gas will still be needed in the near future.
    You're absolutely correct that some people are/were overly optimistic regarding the
    timeframe needed for the transition to clean energy.

    Just a matter of political will. And a reduction of GREED.
  • edited February 16
    Crash said:


    Just a matter of political will. And a reduction of GREED.

    Perhaps using the word Just in this context is akin to waving a magic wand.

    Here is a piece of the puzzle.....Within each nation and among rich and poor nations it is necessary to reach consensus related to "adequately" addressing the wants and needs of present day adult populations while simultaneously adequately setting aside resources to account for the wants and needs of the young and and the unborn. And, related to that, within each nation and among rich and poor nations it is necessary to determine who pays how much to achieve those goals (and then to successfully monitor and to adjust -- when climatic evidence dictates -- those commitments through extended time periods).......sounds like a tall order based on our checkered human history. Perhaps fumbling our way forward over an extended time frame and avoiding the worst possible outcome is likely (this coming from a person who began to advocate for substantially higher gas taxes 50 years ago as a way to reduce fossil fuel consumption and to account for the external costs associated with their use.) Here is a current article about some of what fumbling our way forward may entail over the next 30 years. (Hawaii takes a relatively mild hit in this telling.)
  • edited February 16
    +1.

    Because Waikiki is most famous, I mention it here:
    https://www.hawaiibusiness.com/sea-level-rise-effects-honolulu-hawaii-waikiki-map-future-climate-change/#:~:text=Waikīkī at 4 feet of,at 5 feet of SLR.


    The Ala Wai canal was originally planned with outlets at both ends to the sea. Some genius decided there should only be ONE. It is regularly dredged and cleaned. Otherwise, it would turn into a cesspool.
  • Crash said:

    I'm a proponent of clean energy but oil and gas will still be needed in the near future.
    You're absolutely correct that some people are/were overly optimistic regarding the
    timeframe needed for the transition to clean energy.

    Just a matter of political will. And a reduction of GREED.
    "Waving a magic wand." You're right. But people can learn, grow, change. Most simply don't want to bother. I personally think our evolution continues, too. Will we get smart enough, before the spam fully hits the fan?
  • edited February 16
    Thee thread doth drift … though I’m all in favor of saving the manatee.

    In investment news, the free-fall in fixed income slowed or stopped today - only temporarily arrested I suspect. All mine were flat or slightly up: DODIX, CVSIX, PRIHX, DODLX. And a weird ETF I own, GLDB, that mixes gold and long-term corporates finally had a decent day, up .83%.
  • As of about 10 AM CT, major averages are below/at/near late-January lows. Only R2000/IWM is well above (it had been beaten down quite badly already). Is this the "flush" that the current Barron's mentioned? Stay tuned.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=$SPX&compare=$COMPQ,$INDU,$TRAN,IWM&id=p74263540530
  • Major indexes closed the week flat/up. Closing lows were on Wednesday and intraday lows on Thursday morning. If you were watching the action on Thursday morning, Nasdaq Comp/ONEQ and Nasdaq-100/QQQ even touched the bear market territory for a few minutes (from their November highs). Reports are that Ukraine President said goodbyes to the EU leaders in a videoconference and Kiev and Ukraine may fall soon under Russian control.

    From 1/3/22 (reset the date in the chart to 2022-01-04 if it defaults to 1-yr), https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=$SPX&compare=$COMPQ,$INDU,$TRAN,IWM&id=p85788118706
  • edited March 8
    YTD damage continues getting worse (change time to YTD in the link below if it defaults to 1 Yr). https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=$SPX&compare=$COMPQ,$INDU,$TRAN,IWM&id=p05528334466

    Terrible sounding death-cross (50-dMA crossing 200-dMA on downswing) was noted for Nasdaq Comp about 3 weeks ago, in mid-February (it had happened to R2000/IWM in mid-January). One may have thought then whether the other indexes will follow, or will pull up R2000 and Nasdaq Comp. We now have a partial answer. DJIA/$INDU also has a death-cross and SP500/$SPX may follow in about a week. Surprisingly, it may happen to very cyclical DJ Transports/$TRAN in 2 weeks, or not. It is not in the cards for DJ Utilities/$UTIL - strength in it belies the talk of the coming rate hikes, starting next week. So, the market has several cross-currents. Of course, the disastrous Russia-Ukraine situation remains very fluid too with news changing by the day, sometimes by the hour.
  • I'm a proponent of clean energy but oil and gas will still be needed in the near future.
    You're absolutely correct that some people are/were overly optimistic regarding the
    timeframe needed for the transition to clean energy.

    Perhaps driven by the number of Teslas seen on the road.

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