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I'm Not Sure Wood at ARK ETF Knows What "Soul Searching" Really Is

24

Comments

  • Question - Who currently owns ARKK and how are you managing your position in the near-term? Buying on dips, sold all shares? Is Cathie strictly a momentum player? There is much written about the analyst/research team and their lack of experience...
  • edited January 13
    I own a foothold so I track it. Will be adding 20% below the current price. I understand their research is crowd sourced, similar to getting news from a gossip magazine. Fund companies see their research as competitive advantage, even when they are not performing well but ARKK does not appear to think so.
  • I sold out of ARKK & ARKG in Mar. 2021. I sold ARKF in May 2021.
  • KHaw24 said:

    Question - Who currently owns ARKK and how are you managing your position in the near-term? Buying on dips, sold all shares? Is Cathie strictly a momentum player? There is much written about the analyst/research team and their lack of experience...

    I don't own it, but I think Cathie is a pure momentum-and-sentiment person ... though she's also known for "liking the setup" on stuff that's dropped which she scoops up more of before selling it X days later anyway, so .... YMMV and DYODD.
  • edited January 14
    I don’t own. Play with DKNG - one of her holdings. Buy at $23-24 and sell at $26-27. Kinda scary though, Might drop thru the floor one of these days. Think I’ll swear off.

    DKNG -7% today @ $24.24

    ARKK Today -5.42%

    ARKK looks to be down about 15% YTD / Takes some perseverance to hold on to something like that!

  • Class,

    Why are we making this so difficult? Central banks created huge excess of money supply. Far left government paid people to sit at home and is still trying to hand out freebies

    Inflation is going cuckoo now they have to draw down juicing of the markets. Another 20B less weekly starting next week

    Easy money made money managers like C wood look like geniuses

    Now, not so much

    I've been selling bigly. Buying a tad more pmefx, pvcmx...a little of Warren B stock...

    Not waiting around for the grande flush

    Bad Moon rising

    Post for entertainment purposes only


    Good luck to All

    Baseball Fan
  • edited January 13
    @Baseball_Fan

    What do you therefore suggest we investors do with our life savings? Stuff it in a bank account at 1%?

    I’ll entertain any constructive suggestions.
  • @hank

    To be clear I never would make suggestions for anyone to do anything with their monies. I'm not qualified, don't know you, don't know anything about anything

    That said, who says you have to be all in cash now until 20 years from now ..brk.b, doesn't seem like a bad place to hide out, I mentioned pvcmx and pmefx as places where I have some monies. Ibonds. CDC ETF maybe...is 2022 the year of hussy?

    Just sharing my view is to be very careful as this might be the most dangerous time in the market since 08

    Best

    Baseball Fan

  • edited January 14
    Sorry for asking. Your “Bad Moon rising” perked my interest.

    Yep - 20 years is a long time.
  • @Baseball_Fan : I like your thinking ! The printing presses ran way to long ! How many MFO's received the stimulus check & how many REALLY need it ?

    Enjoy the ride, Derf
  • Far left government paid people to sit at home and is still trying to hand out freebies
    Just out of curiousity, given the massive automation of labor that has occurred and will continue to occur, at what point would you think it makes sense to pay people to sit at home? This government is not far left. It can't even get a tax credit passed to feed hungry children.
  • Hi @Derf
    You noted:
    "How many MFO's received the stimulus check & how many REALLY need it ?"
    A valid point for many here.
    Our local food banks were able to be more supported by us, due to the stimulus.
  • edited January 14
    @Baseball-Fan, First year of pandemic was under Trump and the second year was under Biden. What was the federal budget deficit in the first year and second year. You can pick the deficit by calendar month to come up with the calendar year deficit. Let us talk facts and keep political commentary and hyperbole out. Hyperbole is needed only if trying to market something people do not need.

    I did not receive any of the stimulus checks and was happy to see BBB not pass in the form it was being pushed. Unemployed since Feb 2020 and did not receive unemployment checks or any form of assistance either.
  • The original economic impact payments (aka "stimulus checks") were part of the CARES Act that passed Congress by votes of 419-6 in the House and 96 to 0 in the Senate before being signed into law by the Donald.
    https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/748/actions

    These payments were actually tax refunds. In effect, taxpayers with zero income started with a negative income tax rather than a zero tax. Of course as their income increased, so did their income tax. But the net amount owed was still computed by subtracting out this initial credit.

    Negative income tax - an idea introduced by that radical leftist, Milton Friedman, in 1962.
    https://mitsloan.mit.edu/ideas-made-to-matter/negative-income-tax-explained

  • There was more than one round of government hand outs during Trump time. He was disappointed that the last round was less than what he asked the Senate for ($1,200 vs $2,000 per person?).

    I think as intelligent beings we need to get away from labels, personalities, and the need for a sense of belonging (or tribal affiliation), and discuss ideas if one were looking for entertainment.

    Milton Friedman was a Univ of Chicago faculty from 1944 until the end of his academic career, spanning many decades, and was one of the lead proponents that rejected Keynesianism. He was also an economic adviser to Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher, a rare distinction not too many economists have. He was also the economic advisor to Barry Goldwater. His market based ideas influenced many governments around the world. As to his Republican party affiliation, he was not a blind squirrel and rejected the party label.
  • Not sure there's any point to discussing politico-economical issues where someone can write 'Far left government paid people to sit at home and is still trying to hand out freebies', but this was enlightening, about "socialist" (har) gov and loafers and layabouts and QoL elsewhere:

    https://messaging-custom-newsletters.nytimes.com/template/oakv2?campaign_id=116&emc=edit_pk_20220114&instance_id=50392&nl=paul-krugman&productCode=PK&regi_id=22268089&segment_id=79774&te=1&uri=nyt://newsletter/2506423f-8181-5221-97e3-1080724eb062&user_id=83d45440ead1d14c2a89a1e7221337d1
  • Well obviously we know which way some of us lean politically here, now don't we?
    Don't wish to offend, I call it like I see it and experience it, you don't have to agree with me, that's ok, I'll see you at the polls when we vote. Let it be said that I disagree with many of the views expressed here but that is ok, I don't lose any sleep over it.

    Hyperbole? Hypocrisy? Limousine Liberals, False Facts, Blow Hards, Faux-intellectuals. Sure, this forum has some of it for sure but insightful commentary and discussions that are on point as well. All Good, makes it informative and entertaining at times.

    Getting back on track, it's been said that you should not mix your political view with your investing approach. Very likely true but I wonder if we are entering a new era where you have to consider outside factors? Taxes going up, rates going up, more regulation, killing the energy companies required to run a large economy...

    Best Regards,

    Baseball Fan
  • edited January 15
    I would not infer much about political leanings. What you wrote (far left gov, freeloading, etc.) is simply factually untrue, demonstrable with good evidence and long studies. 'Excess money supply' also, and so on. Some here (thank god) have the patience to explain the reality and the history. And now 'killing energy companies'.
  • Huh? Because it doesn't fit your perspective?

    Excess money supply. What do you think the Central Bank has done in the past year and a half? Increased it by 40% or so...do you think that's deflationary?

    Freeloaders. Ya that's right. Don't misunderstood I'm all for helping folks in a tough spot etc but do not want to support people who are having multiple children with different partners as a lifestyle.

    You can post all the Krugman you want. I have seen it, heard it, folks instructing others how to work the system for govt handouts

    Now this clown in the white house tried to push thru BBB for more handouts. Bridges, roads, my rear end, he just wants to buy more votes and get more people dependent on the government

    Extra unemployment encouraged people to walk away from jobs. Again, I've seen it first hand.

    Good day sir! I said good day sir!

    Baseball Fan
  • edited January 15
    “Getting back on track, it's been said that you should not mix your political view with your investing approach. Very likely true but I wonder if we are entering a new era where you have to consider outside factors? Taxes going up, rates going up, more regulation, killing the energy companies required to run a large economy... “

    Sure. Consider everything when investing. I do. But no need to voice your every thought / political preferences here. It’s not the first time.

    As far as the federal debt goes … both sides share the responsibility. One side likes to cut taxes - especially for people who don’t need it. Another side likes government funded infrastructure and social programs. Both pushed for those stimulus checks. The goal was to get as much money into circulation as possible before the economy froze up due to the pandemic. It’s hard to second guess those emergency measures or to recall the extent to which the economy shut down.

    Remember which direction your investments were heading in March 2020 before relief measures from the Fed and the Treasury were announced?
  • edited January 15
    Not sure you guys ever tested Fidelity Community - Fidelity’s investment forum. I strongly encourage visiting / participating there. It is well moderated by Fidelity, with very little to no political commentary allowed. They do not seem to discuss mutual funds as much but some from this forum could start mutual fund threads there and gaze the level of interest. I am sure many of you will be well received. You need to have a Fidelity account though. I like this forum but i would like to see some healthy competition.
  • @BaluBalu : Have you looked at either of these investment sites ?

    Home | Armchairinvesting



    https://big-bang-investors.proboards.com/

    You may have to fish a little to get to them , my try didn't work to well.
  • edited January 16
    @Derf, Thanks for the suggestions. I would not want MFO members to go to either of those sites and dilute their energies / attention here. MFO gets an occasional drive by but those sites are sometimes war zones. No offense intended rforno.

    I have limited amount of time and I want to spend it in limited number of places and in a productive way. Of course, I am happy to share / help as well (like so many others here).

    Edit: Jan 18 is 2021 Q4 ES payment deadline, just in case anybody needed a reminder.
  • BaluBalu said:


    : Jan 18 is 2021 Q4 ES payment deadline, just in case anybody needed a reminder.

    Thank you BaluBalu. I *did* need a reminder!
  • Discussion boards develop personalities that are reflections of their site administrator(s) and/or active posters. So, MFO, Armchairinvesting, Big Bang, M* all feel different. All of these are "open" sites, so nonmembers can read discussions and open links from there.

    Fidelity Investor Community is heavily moderated. At anytime, several moderators are active, so food fights cannot continue. I wonder how Fido can afford this, but then you look at the ERs of many Fido funds and can understand that lot is possible at Fido. Discussions are on Fidelity and non-Fidelity related topics. But it is a "closed" site that requires Fidelity account(s), invitation from the site administrator (after one sends a secure message to Fidelity indicating interest) and nonmembers CANNOT read discussions or open links from there. So, whatever happens at the Fido site stays there (like they say about LV).
  • The ETF is down now 45% in the past 12 months and more than 50% off its peak price of $159.70 at $76.91 today.
  • edited January 19
    There’ll be a hellova bounce someday - if she has any investors left.

    At this point Cathie’s biggest problem is the short sellers. Some big name investors / hedge funds have been shorting ARKK and there’s even an ETF (SARK) which targets her holdings Essentially, these short sellers wait until a fund or stock turns south and than “pile on” and try to chase it into the weeds. (Talk about gambling..)

    Sure - they saw a legitimate opportunity. But isn’t it just as likely the shorts will go overboard and drive the prices down to unsustainable levels? A second problem for ARKK is the herd mentality of today’s retail investors. A problem for any asset manager. But the more potent the mix of holdings in a fund the more violent the swings in investor sentiment become.

    I’ll say, ARKK and the shorties make sports wagering look tame.:)

  • " I’ll say, ARKK and the shorties make sports wagering look tame."
    @hank You're right to a certain point . What are your thoughts on live odds ?
    I figure it gives me a chance to lose more than once !
    Enjoy the ride, Derf
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