Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Support MFO
Donate through PayPal
Futures jump with news on vaccine for covid (news link from CNBC)
So... Is this the signal to go all in, as economy normalizes while interest rates stay zero? Or the sign that good news is all priced in and we're likely at a top?
It will be interesting to see which sectors outperform and underperform today! I had been planning to do a little portfolio housekeeping today but those plans have been put on hold.
On vaccine news or election results? I'm sure the media will be punditing it all day today.
Both. I checked the futures around midnight before the vaccine news broke. DJ was over 400 points higher and rising.
Here’s a contrarian view (mere speculation): In an ironic twist, Covid may have already propelled equity markets higher over the past 6 months since there’s not a whole lot for people to spend $$ on. Few are flying, traveling, attending plays, sporting events, Some, myself included, aren’t eager to have in-home remodeling done now with workers coming and going. And, do you really want to wander around in a big box store for hours or hang out at a furniture joint trying out the new sofas? So, possibly, investors worldwide have stashed excess cash is all kinds of risk assets. The elephant chasing his tail.
A second view The Fed is about to get its wishes (more inflation) in spades - so that asset valuations are keeping pace with expected inflation.
Third take - It’s really all about the vaccine.
Fourth possibility - It’s somehow related to the election. Either: (A) Under Biden there will be more government stimulus spending or (B) Under Biden investors will have a higher certainty that rule of law and respect for Constitutional processes will prevail - both essential for investor confidence.
Than there’s the old line about the one-armed economist.
Dr. Fauci said several months ago there is likely vaccine for COVID19 by end of 2020. Moderna, Pfizer, AstaZecca and several others are at Phase III testing. The more important question is the scale up (billions dosage) and distribution of them to people. Dr. Redfield said spring 2021 vaccines will likely be ready. I tend to agree with that timeframe. Remember Pfizer and Moderna vaccines require to keep frozen at least -2 C (dry ice temp) while flu vaccine is kept at refrigerator temp. Logistics on distribution will be a challenge but it can done provide the have a plan.
Watch for health care sector if the market is response to it. Otherwise it may signal that the election is done and everything is moving forward.
@davidmoran should be happy that CAPE is up 12%. IAU is down 4%. So are the bonds. Risk offnow?
Remember Pfizer and Moderna vaccines require to keep frozen at least -2 C (dry ice temp) while flu vaccine is kept at refrigerator temp. Logistics on distribution will be a challenge but it can done ...
Good point. I learned only recently that the MD & clinic that have served as my GP for over 20 years doesn’t have the sophisticated refrigeration apparatus to store and administer the new shingles vaccine because of the expense of installing and maintaining such equipment (super cold temperatures). However, the local Walgreens does have the equipment.
What this suggests to me that there will be a slow roll-out and long lines at first at labs where the Covid vaccine can be administered. Trump has repeatedly said that our armed forces will administer it quickly. But somehow, I can’t get my head around the image of specially equipped Army refrigeration trucks and trained medical personnel rolling down my street dispensing this vaccine. Hopefully, after med personnel and first responders, etc. get their “fix“, those of us post-70 will have a crack at it (no pun intended).
Hopes are soaring that a Covid vaccine is within reach, following news that an interim analysis has shown Pfizer/BioNTech’s candidate was 90% effective in protecting people from transmission of the virus in global trials.
The vaccine performed much better than most experts had hoped for, according to the companies’ analysis, and brings into view a potential end to a pandemic that has killed more than a million people, battered economies and upended daily life worldwide.
The data is from an interim analysis and the trial continues into December but the headline results were emphatic. Regulators will be looking to process an emergency licence application at record speed.
Manufacturing is already under way. Pfizer said they expect to supply globally up to 50m vaccine doses in 2020 and up to 1.3bn doses in 2021. Countries will decide who they prioritise for vaccination.
The news comes too late to help Donald Trump’s re-election campaign in the US, but the vice-president, Mike Pence, tried to claim their administration’s Operation Warp Speed programme had helped the vaccine’s development.
Pfizer denied the suggestion: “We were never part of the Warp Speed,” Kathrin Jansen, a senior vice-president and the head of vaccine research and development at Pfizer, said in an interview. “We have never taken any money from the US government, or from anyone.”
BioNTech, the small biotechnology company that is the originator of the vaccine, was founded by two married German scientists, Uğur Şahin and Özlem Türeci, both born to Turkish immigrant parents, and the Austrian oncologist Christopher Huber. It originally set out to develop new types of immunotherapy for cancer, but has concentrated its capacities on the race for a Covid-19 vaccine.
There are so far no safety concerns around the vaccine, with the two companies reporting no serious side-effects. The high percentage of those protected makes it especially compelling. Regulators have previously said they would approve a vaccine that has just a 50% effectiveness rate – protecting half of those who get vaccinated.
“We are reaching this critical milestone in our vaccine development programme at a time when the world needs it most with infection rates setting new records, hospitals nearing over-capacity and economies struggling to reopen.”
Special refrigerated shipment is an established process used in many labs, i.e. fertility clinics. Shipping billion dosages to your pharmacy under these conditions will take time and added expense. Human lives far outweigh the added cost.
The first responders (doctors and nurses, teachers, military personnel, policemen and firemen) will first get the vaccines. Next are the elderly and vulnerable demographic, follow by the general population. Distribution will not be easy but it can be done. Hopefully there will be high participation rate so this pandemic can be dealt with effectively. @hank, make sure you have your doctor to get you in line for the vaccine since you are part of the elderly.
Go big or go home - let's shoot for 40! We gonna party like its 1999 all over again.
What pandemic? Pftttt. Pfizer has a vaccine now. Plus we have a new POTUS and potential govt gridlock, which the market supposedly loves. More stimulus coming down the road. And smaller (private) business closings only make the larger (public) companies stronger. See that -so easy to explain it all away.
The market is nuts and it loves to fly in the face of fear. At least, until all the bears throw in the towel.
This bear just threw part of his towel in. I put a quarter of my cash to work, bringing me from 50% to 62% or so equities. I'll be dollar averaging the rest in over the next year, unless we finally do get that correction of my dreams first.
As a pharmacist, although I applaud the Pfizer news today, first may not be the best when it comes to eventual widespread public distribution. With a two shot requirement for optimal efficacy, recipients will not uncommonly dismiss, or simply forget, about the necessity of that second dose (we have seen this with the newer shingles vaccine). IMO, the Pfizer product may be most appropriate and timely for settings with a relatively captive and/or exposed audience (nursing homes, senior assisted living, front line emergency/medical). Otherwise, if similarly effective, single dose vaccines in late stage from J & J, Merck, and others could become preferred into 2021.
It is likely that multiple vaccines roll out from different manufacturers in order to meet the large demand. Pfizer's data on 90% efficacy is very good. Other manufacturers will have to demonstrated their safety and efficacy as well.
We have to wait until they are ready. In the meantime, please wear face covering, maintain social distancing and practice good hygiene. It is not easy now especially in the holiday season when we cannot visit and see families from far away.
@Mark, I am not a pharmacist, but we have doctors and surgeons in our family. Typical 2-shot vaccines are spaced out 60 days for the second booster shot. The goal is to maintain certain antibody concentration in the blood steam for a specific time period. There are data that the T-cells created in the bone marrow is longer lasting and are equally important in fighting against the virus.
"BioNTech, the small biotechnology company that is the originator of the vaccine, was founded by two married German scientists, Uğur Şahin and Özlem Türeci, both born to Turkish immigrant parents, and the Austrian oncologist Christopher Huber."
Thanks, Old_Joe, for including this interesting piece of information in your quote from The Guardian article. I got the impression from the media here that Pfizer was the originator of the vaccine but, apparently, it was developed by a small biotech company in Germany.
Will Pfizer's role be as the manufacturer of the vaccine and as the primary distribution channel for the US?
I believe that was the partnership developed between them. Pfizer has the know-how on the scale-up production and the distribution of the vaccine. Same arrangement also exists between Oxford University and AstaZenecca for their vaccine.
@Mark, I am not a pharmacist, but we have doctors and surgeons in our family. Typical 2-shot vaccines are spaced out 60 days for the second booster shot. The goal is to maintain certain antibody concentration in the blood steam for a specific time period. There are data that the T-cells created in the bone marrow is longer lasting and are equally important in fighting against the virus.
Agree. I don't get it even for common vaccines for kids that many parents refuse to have their children immunized as part of the health requirement in order to enroll in public schools.
1. If you get the first Pfizer vaccine how long does one wait for the second shot?
2. If you get the Pfizer vaccine can or might you also get the others (JNJ, Merck) later?
You will need the 2nd shot about three weeks later if I am reading the data correctly. I am not sure how flexible that timing will be for the same effect, as with limited availability initially even within the assumed priority groups 2nd shots may be delayed until all who require the 1st shot are administered.
For your second question, my expectation is that by the time both supply and delivery capacity is prepared for use in the general public, we will have multiple approved candidates where we have a good grasp on matching the best product to the demographic (seniors, convenience, efficacy, mode and duration of action). But until we have more clarity with those questions unsure of how often a preferred vaccine will need to be administered and if there is any advantage to multiple products.
Another challenge is the variable of continuing advances with therapeutics. Successfully addressing and improving morbidity/mortality for acute infection is certainly desired, but although perhaps less significant than those passing on the second shot there will be a subset of the population that notes the advancements in treatment and may consider the risk of the vaccine to be worse than the potential consequence of the virus. Hence, we have slower progress to herd immunity and complications if the virus behavior requires regular boosters similar to the flu vaccine.
Exclusive: Europe to pay less than U.S. for Pfizer's German BioNTech vaccine under initial deal
By Francesco Guarascio, Reuters - 9:56 AM ET 11/11/2020
BRUSSELS (Reuters) - The European Union has struck a deal to initially pay less for Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine candidate than the United States, an EU official told Reuters as the bloc announced on Wednesday it had secured an agreement for up to 300 million doses.
The experimental drug, developed in conjunction with Germany's BioNTech , is the frontrunner in a global race to produce a vaccine, with interim data released on Monday showing it was more than 90% effective at protecting people from COVID-19 in a large-scale clinical trial..
Under the EU deal, 27 European countries could buy 200 million doses, and have an option to purchase another 100 million.
The bloc will pay less than $19.50 per shot, a senior EU official involved in talks with vaccine makers told Reuters, adding that partly reflected the financial support given by the EU and Germany for the drug's development.
The official requested anonymity as the terms of the agreement are confidential.
Typical, eh? And yet we are too stoopid here to come anywhere near Europe's ability to provide what people need at a REASONABLE cost, straight through the tax base. (Shit.)
Comments
Enjoy the ride, Derf
On vaccine news or election results? I'm sure the media will be punditing it all day today.
Here’s a contrarian view (mere speculation): In an ironic twist, Covid may have already propelled equity markets higher over the past 6 months since there’s not a whole lot for people to spend $$ on. Few are flying, traveling, attending plays, sporting events, Some, myself included, aren’t eager to have in-home remodeling done now with workers coming and going. And, do you really want to wander around in a big box store for hours or hang out at a furniture joint trying out the new sofas? So, possibly, investors worldwide have stashed excess cash is all kinds of risk assets. The elephant chasing his tail.
A second view The Fed is about to get its wishes (more inflation) in spades - so that asset valuations are keeping pace with expected inflation.
Third take - It’s really all about the vaccine.
Fourth possibility - It’s somehow related to the election. Either: (A) Under Biden there will be more government stimulus spending or (B) Under Biden investors will have a higher certainty that rule of law and respect for Constitutional processes will prevail - both essential for investor confidence.
Than there’s the old line about the one-armed economist.
Watch for health care sector if the market is response to it. Otherwise it may signal that the election is done and everything is moving forward.
@davidmoran should be happy that CAPE is up 12%. IAU is down 4%. So are the bonds. Risk offnow?
What this suggests to me that there will be a slow roll-out and long lines at first at labs where the Covid vaccine can be administered. Trump has repeatedly said that our armed forces will administer it quickly. But somehow, I can’t get my head around the image of specially equipped Army refrigeration trucks and trained medical personnel rolling down my street dispensing this vaccine. Hopefully, after med personnel and first responders, etc. get their “fix“, those of us post-70 will have a crack at it (no pun intended).
The first responders (doctors and nurses, teachers, military personnel, policemen and firemen) will first get the vaccines. Next are the elderly and vulnerable demographic, follow by the general population. Distribution will not be easy but it can be done. Hopefully there will be high participation rate so this pandemic can be dealt with effectively. @hank, make sure you have your doctor to get you in line for the vaccine since you are part of the elderly.
https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe
What pandemic? Pftttt. Pfizer has a vaccine now. Plus we have a new POTUS and potential govt gridlock, which the market supposedly loves. More stimulus coming down the road. And smaller (private) business closings only make the larger (public) companies stronger. See that -so easy to explain it all away.
The market is nuts and it loves to fly in the face of fear. At least, until all the bears throw in the towel.
We have to wait until they are ready. In the meantime, please wear face covering, maintain social distancing and practice good hygiene. It is not easy now especially in the holiday season when we cannot visit and see families from far away.
1. If you get the first Pfizer vaccine how long does one wait for the second shot?
2. If you get the Pfizer vaccine can or might you also get the others (JNJ, Merck) later?
Thanks, Old_Joe, for including this interesting piece of information in your quote from The Guardian article. I got the impression from the media here that Pfizer was the originator of the vaccine but, apparently, it was developed by a small biotech company in Germany.
Will Pfizer's role be as the manufacturer of the vaccine and as the primary distribution channel for the US?
Fred
Getting folks en masse to take the vaccine once is hard enough. Getting them to return for their booster? That'll be an even greater challenge, imho.
1. If you get the first Pfizer vaccine how long does one wait for the second shot?
2. If you get the Pfizer vaccine can or might you also get the others (JNJ, Merck) later?
You will need the 2nd shot about three weeks later if I am reading the data correctly. I am not sure how flexible that timing will be for the same effect, as with limited availability initially even within the assumed priority groups 2nd shots may be delayed until all who require the 1st shot are administered.
For your second question, my expectation is that by the time both supply and delivery capacity is prepared for use in the general public, we will have multiple approved candidates where we have a good grasp on matching the best product to the demographic (seniors, convenience, efficacy, mode and duration of action). But until we have more clarity with those questions unsure of how often a preferred vaccine will need to be administered and if there is any advantage to multiple products.
Another challenge is the variable of continuing advances with therapeutics. Successfully addressing and improving morbidity/mortality for acute infection is certainly desired, but although perhaps less significant than those passing on the second shot there will be a subset of the population that notes the advancements in treatment and may consider the risk of the vaccine to be worse than the potential consequence of the virus. Hence, we have slower progress to herd immunity and complications if the virus behavior requires regular boosters similar to the flu vaccine.
By Francesco Guarascio, Reuters - 9:56 AM ET 11/11/2020
BRUSSELS (Reuters) - The European Union has struck a deal to initially pay less for Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine candidate than the United States, an EU official told Reuters as the bloc announced on Wednesday it had secured an agreement for up to 300 million doses.
The experimental drug, developed in conjunction with Germany's BioNTech , is the frontrunner in a global race to produce a vaccine, with interim data released on Monday showing it was more than 90% effective at protecting people from COVID-19 in a large-scale clinical trial..
Under the EU deal, 27 European countries could buy 200 million doses, and have an option to purchase another 100 million.
The bloc will pay less than $19.50 per shot, a senior EU official involved in talks with vaccine makers told Reuters, adding that partly reflected the financial support given by the EU and Germany for the drug's development.
The official requested anonymity as the terms of the agreement are confidential.